A-Rodpercussions

Earlier this month, we took a premature look at how A-Rod’s departure from the Bronx could affect the Mets.

Now that it is reality, what are possible repercussions of A-Rod’s decision to opt out of his contract? Here are a few scenarios that are (NOT) likely to happen:

1. Mets sign A-Rod

The Wilpons buy into Scott Boras’ “IPN” theory that Alex Rodriguez is worth at least $500M to SNY. That said, renting A-Rod’s services for $320M over the next 10 years is well worth the investment. A-Rod is installed at third base, and David Wright immediately reports to the Gigantes to learn second base. Or, Carlos Delgado is dumped on the Orioles in return for catcher Ramon Hernandez and D-Wright moves to first. Either way, the Mets suddenly have a more potent infield than the Philadelphia Phillies — with or without Mike Lowell.

2. Red Sox sign A-Rod
They also re-sign Lowell, and announce that A-Rod is moving back to shortstop. However, they need to lose some cash — as well as Julio Lugo — and send Manny Ramirez, Lugo, and Craig Hansen to the Mets in a salary dump deal; the Mets give up Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, and Mike Carp.

3. Orioles sign A-Rod
Once again, owner Peter Angelos decides the best thing for his team is to throw more money at it. Rodriguez is his new shortstop, but he needs to move his old shortstop Miguel Tejada. Miggy, Erik Bedard, Ramon Hernandez, and Jay Gibbons are sent to the Mets in return for Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Lastings Milledge, and Carlos Delgado. Tejada immediately accepts the Mets’ request to move to second base.

4. Angels sign A-Rod

With A-Rod playing either shortstop or third base, there’s suddenly no room for hot prospect Brandon Wood, who has hit 91 HRs in the last three years in the minors. They send him and young catcher Jeff Mathis to the Mets in return for Carlos Gomez and Kevin Mulvey. Wood, a natural shortstop, is given the opportunity to win the second base job, and Mathis will back up Paul LoDuca, who is re-signed to a one-year deal.

5. Dodgers sign A-Rod

Partially to make room in the infield, partially to clear some salary, and partially to dump him before he becomes a free agent at the end of ’08, the Dodgers send Rafael Furcal to the Mets in return for two unknown A-level minor leaguers.

6. Tigers sign A-Rod
The only way Detroit can afford A-Rod is to shed the $61M still owed on the contracts of Gary Sheffield and Jeremy Bonderman. They send Sheff and Bonderman to the Mets for the future Sheff, Lastings Milledge, and the future Bonderman, Mike Pelfrey.

7. White Sox sign A-Rod

The Sox have to clear payroll to sign Rodriguez, and can shed $55M in one fell swoop by sending Javy Vazquez and Jose Contreras to the Mets for Mike Pelfrey and a few nondescript minor leaguers.

8. Cubs sign A-Rod

The Cubs cannot afford both Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano. Soriano is sent to the Mets in return for Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, and an assortment of unknown A-ballers. Soriano waives his no-trade when the Mets promise to move him back to second base.

9. Rangers sign A-Rod
For the second time in less than ten years, Tom Hicks loses his mind and signs A-Rod to the highest contract in MLB history. However, he now needs to do some long-term salary dumping. He “dumps” Michael Young and Kevin Millwood — along with Gerald Laird — on the Mets for Lastings Milledge, Texan Philip Humber, Ruben Gotay, and Eddie Kunz.

10. Yankees sign A-Rod
By committing $300M to Rodriguez for the next ten years, the Yankees are unable to enter the bidding for Johan Santana at the end of 2008. The Mets easily outbid other suitors and Santana is the Opening Day starter for the first game ever played at Citi Field.

11. Giants sign A-Rod
Barroid Bonds and his $20M salary are off the books, as are the contracts of Omar Vizquel, Ryan Klesko, and Pedro Feliz which means there’s money for Rodriguez. However, they also need another big bat, and send Tyler Walker, Kevin Correia, and Randy Winn to the Mets for Carlos Delgado. The Mets then flip Winn to the Orioles for Ramon Hernandez. On a side note, Shawn Green accepts arbitration and becomes one-half of the Mets’ platoon at first base with free-agent signee Mike Sweeney.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
  1. skibolton October 29, 2007 at 1:53 pm
    Why not try wright in right? He can run, and reacts well to the ball off the bat. His arm is definately strong enough…just not very accurate. That make trading milledge an easy call, and you don’t have to pay delgado to play somewhere else. I have to think he’d be a damn good right fielder. Plus then gomez gets a full year in the minors.
  2. joe October 29, 2007 at 2:07 pm
    Wright would probably be fine in right. But, isn’t it a lot easier to find an outfielder who can hit than an infielder who can hit AND field?

    DWright may not be a Gold Glover at third, but I think he can develop into one over the next 3-5 years … I do believe he’s that good with his hands and athleticism, and think if he ever completely figures out the throwing to first thing, he’ll be fine (Doug DeCinces, Mike Schmidt, and George Brett all had similar issues early in their careers, and all eventually became very good-to-excellent defenders).

    I think you move an athletic infielder to the outfield only as a last-case scenario … fly balls are generally easier to handle than ground balls.

  3. isuzudude October 29, 2007 at 2:33 pm
    I agree with Joe. Players along the lines of Soriano, Bonilla, Sheffield get shifted to the OF b/c of their lack of grace on the infield dirt. Wright, in the meantime, has already shown flashes of brilliance at third, and I’d hate to see that wasted as he chases fly balls in the OF.

    However, if the Mets were to entertain the thought of adding Arod this offseason, instead of moving Wright to a new position (2B, 1B, RF, etc) I’d keep him at third and move Reyes to 2B. This way all parties involved are manning positions in which they have previously played in their major league career.

  4. Micalpalyn October 29, 2007 at 2:34 pm
    Joe:

    Why stop there? I think you should addend the above post and add the other ML teams.

    Why? I think the Mariners have a shot. Also Jim Bowden may want to make his own splash! SD are one bat short, Imagine Arod in Colorado…(wow!!!)

  5. Micalpalyn October 29, 2007 at 2:44 pm
    Lets NOT entertain thoughts of Arod the Met.

    If Delgado returns to a semblance of ‘ the’ Carlos Delgado, we have one of the best all-around infields in baseball, Of course re-signing Luis is a factor too).

    Will the Phils add Alex at 3B?

  6. isuzudude October 29, 2007 at 5:11 pm
    Maybe we gotta add Atlanta to the list. Trading Renteria today frees up money and their SS position (depending on their feelings on Yunel Escobar).

    I’ve heard a lot of negative criticism about Atlanta’s trade today, but I think they did well. Escobar showed he’s major league ready, and trading an expendable part in Renteria certainly frees up some money so they can fill their holes in CF and SP. Perhaps they could have gotten better value in return from Detroit, but I don’t take the Braves to be a team to get duped in a trade by anybody.

    Listening to M & the MD today, more hype talk on trading Reyes for Johan, as well as signing Arod. I can’t get too wrapped up in their banter, and although it’s nice to think of the 2008 Mets with both players in uniform, knowing what it will cost us (both in the pocketbook and in young talent) makes me believe it’s just not worth it. Plus Santana is going to be next to impossible to retain when his contract is up, and signing Arod would give the Yankees all the incentive in the world to throw an ungodly amount of money at Johan after he’s done with the Mets. I’m perfectly content in keeping Reyes and going after the Carlos Silva’s and Randy Wolf’s of the world and trying to get to the WS that way.

  7. joe October 29, 2007 at 5:39 pm
    I have to agree … I don’t want the Mets to become the Yankees, which is what they’ll effectively become by ponying up wads and wads of dough for A-Rod and Johan.

    There’s some charm in being the “other” team in NYC … and as a Mets fan for 30+ years, I’m totally OK with the Yankees “owning” New York.

  8. Micalpalyn October 29, 2007 at 6:25 pm
    Hmmm,

    1. I generally agree. The Mets not signing Arod 7 yrs ago was huge. And after a BIG and patient rebuild will hardly implode the same way again. Omar has a budget and usually works well within it.

    2. I could see (though faintly) tejada as our 2nd baseman. But I doubt no one before maybe RUBEN Tejada moves Reyes as our SS.

    3. I disagree with Isu’s Carlos Silva theory. I like him. But he is to this rotation a return to the Kris benson imagery. I think we need a compliment to Pedro, a strong# 2. For example The Bosox were hurt by the loss of Pedro- who was the 1-2 punch with schilling. They revamped with Beckett and Dice K..to go with Schill. Pedro i think is OK. I think if Dice-K, had been here this yr we’d have been more competitive. Next yr we will be SOOOOO much better with Pedro back, Ollie and Maine a year older. If you add a top-rotation starter in the (Burnett/Vazquez) mold, I think we have a WS team.

    4. PS: good pitching beats good hitting.

  9. joe October 29, 2007 at 6:35 pm
    There was a time — about four years ago — when I thought Javy Vazquez was a potential #2. At this point, I’d put Ollie and/or Maine ahead of him in a rotation. That said, unless the Mets can miraculously find a match with Toronto for AJ Burnett, I don’t see a legit #2 coming to Shea in ’08. So to me Silva is a good choice as another middle-rotation guy. Silva and Vazquez, to me, are more or less the same, the only difference being that Silva comes without having to trade anyone away. I really believe Silva will be a 13-15-game winner in the NL, particularly in a pitcher’s park such as Shea.
  10. isuzudude October 29, 2007 at 7:47 pm
    To address Mic…

    1. Yes, the Mets not signing Arod was huge. But every team can say that. And you can say not signing Colon was huge. Not signing Vladimir was huge. Not signing Papi was huge. Not signing Tejada was huge. Not signing the Big Unit was huge. But the Mets can’t sign every huge player. Believe it or not, not every big name player feels like playing for the Mets is his best option. Arod is a team-changing force that every team wants if they can afford him. But there in lies the problem. The Mets knew giving him a $252-mil deal, as he got with Texas, would not guarentee them any world championships, as it didn’t with the Rangers nor with the Yankees. It would also put a serious crimp into getting and retaining other big players who demanded multi-million dollar contracts. Plus, coming off a season in ’99 in which we got to the NLCS w/o Arod with Ventura and Ordonez at third and short, what made the Mets believe they even needed Arod? I’m not even sure if you comment is designed to be a compliment to the Mets for not wasting their time on Arod, or if they missed out on a great opputunity. I’m still stuck trying to decipher what “And after a BIG and patient rebuild will hardly implode the same way again” means.

    2. Again, what’s this jibber jabber mean? You doubt no one before Ruben? Tejada moves Reyes as our SS? I thought Reyes already was our SS, why would Tejada move him there?

    3. First of all, the Silva “theory” is not mine, it is shared by most at this blog site, including Joe. The reason for wanting Silva is because of his aptitude for throwing innings, thus easing the burden on the bullpen. To compare him to Benson, like your comparison to Trachsel, is unfair. Benson couldn’t touch 90 with a fastball, while Silva is near 95 (don’t let the low strikeout numbers fool you). Plus the Mets were taking a calculated risk on Benson knowing he had a history of arm trouble, whereas with Silva there’s been no mention of arm trouble while he’s averaged 193 innings pitched and almost 12 wins a season for the past 4 years for a light hitting Twins team in a tough division.

    Furthermore, the idea of getting a solid #2 to go along with Pedro is fantastic…but these types of pitchers don’t grow on trees and certainly aren’t coming cheaply. I’m glad you seem to be over your Jon Garland infatuation, because he is no solution. Vazquez and Burnett would be great additions, but are they worth Milledge, Pelfrey, and Humber…the likely asking price for each? What do we do about RF then? What happens if Pedro and El Duque get hurt again? Where has our starting rotation depth gone? Signing Silva eliminates all of those questions.

    Again, I agree that Dice-K would have made the Mets more competitive. But Dice-K would have made ANY team more competitive, so your comment is useless. And here’s a question for you: In 2007, where does Dice-K fit into the rotation, especially after Pedro’s return? Pedro, Glavine, Maine, Perez, El Duque. And you can’t say he’d slide into Hernandez’ spot when he got hurt b/c there was no way of knowing in the offseason that El Duque was going to get hurt in the 2nd half of the season. Would it have been worth $52-mil on top of the bidding price paid to the Japanese team that had him for him to be a 6th starter? Or was that money better spent on locking Wright and Reyes into long term contracts? You have to come up with more than naming big players and saying the Mets would have been better if they had them. If it was that easy the Yankees would always win the world series.

    Plus, I challenge you to compare Dice-K’s 2007 stats with Silva’s. Who had the better WHIP? The lower ERA? More complete games? The answers may surprise you, yet I bet you wouldn’t think for a second as to which you would rather have on your team. I’m not saying Silva is necesarily the better pitcher between the two, but I am saying success and results can be attained without always throwing a truck load of money at the problem and bringing the biggest-named talent on board.

    4. That’s the key mantra everyone seems to forget. I couldn’t agree more.

  11. sincekindergarten October 30, 2007 at 6:44 am
    Gang, based on the supposed discussions that Joe Torre has had with the Dodgers, I’d wager that that’s where both Torre and ARod wind up next year. I think that we do wind up signing Silva, and Castillo. Milledge winds up in right. Don’t know who Castro backs up behind the plate.
  12. joe October 30, 2007 at 8:10 am
    I don’t think there is any way A-Rod follows Torre to the Dodgers, as Torre was one of the reasons Rodriguez chose to leave the Yankees. He never quite got over Joe batting him 8th in a playoff game.
  13. Walnutz15 October 30, 2007 at 9:16 am
    A-Rod will not go to the Dodgers. I think that the Torre-love affair is vastly overstated by anyone looking for a Hollywood ending — and that Posada (can’t believe anyone would speculate — considering Russell Martin’s out there), Rivera, nor A-Rod will be anywhere near Los Angeles.

    My favorite theories all regard West Coast teams — but if I were to conjure up my own A-Rod story…it’d end up with he in an Angel uniform.

    Otherwise, one of the most interesting theories I’ve read came from DuffyDyer (one of our diehards on Scout.com) —

    “What if Boras and A-Rod actually knew which uniform A-Rod would be wearing in 2008 1 year ago?!

    That’s right. What if Boras and the Giants made a handshake deal that if they’d sign Zito then Boras would deliver A-Rod to them 1 year later at whatever price they agreed to then… There is a big hole on the Giants and lots of contracts off their books now. A-Rod would be a perfect fit to play there for the next 5 years or so to go along with their young rotation of Cain, Lincecum and Zito.

    In a now very competitive NL West, the Giants would be able to compete along side the DBacks, Pads, Dodgers & Rox. And with the A’s apparently moving to Fremont, the Giants would own that town and A-Rod would be the center of it.”

    Joe, I just got your e-mail the other day…I’ve been busy putting my stuff together in anticipation of a change in address. I’ll throw that e-mail over and copy you on it, when it’s written.

    PK

  14. Micalpalyn October 30, 2007 at 9:40 am
    Isu: Wow. You almost deciiphered my emotional rant!! Certainly your eloquence far out weighed my double sided comentaries. But I’ll respond to specifics in your comments at a later time.

    Bottom line this arod FA subject/issue is ‘huge’ because it does send ripples throughout baseball.

    I like this debate. But I disagree that Torre in LA means arod wont go there.
    Indeed i wonder if the Giants and Dodgers (and Angels?) dont end up in a bidding war. For some reason, i think the Angels might want Miguel Tejada more than arod.

  15. joe October 30, 2007 at 9:40 am
    A-Rod on the Giants … hmmm … they do have a big $20M hole left by Barroid … I may have to put addendums to this article, as Mic suggested.

    PK- no big deal, if you have time, great, it is greatly appreciated.

  16. isuzudude October 30, 2007 at 9:51 am
    Walnutz – I can definitely see the logistics of the theory of Arod going to SanFran. Zito got WAY more than he deserved or than anyone else was offering from the Giants last offseason, so it makes sense to think that was more of a good gesture to Boras than a good signing by the Giants. Good job on the scoop.