Mets Sign Curtis Granderson
The Mets bid against themselves and gave Curtis Granderson the fourth year he was seeking. According to reports, the Mets and The Grandy Man have agreed to four years, $64M.
We’ll cover this in more depth soon enough, but I’m at work so can’t offer my two cents at the moment. Meantime, though, post your reaction in the comments.
Mets Item of the Day
You don’t need to join the US Army to be all you can be — you can simply follow the path led by Curtis Granderson. In all seriousness, The Grandy Man wrote a wonderful book for kids that I recommend: All You Can Be: Learning & Growing Through Sports
There is also a drawing book featuring Grandy that was written during his time in Detroit: All You Can Be: Dream It, Draw It, Become It!
A good team could have had him for a lot less, but if the Mets really wanted him, this was quite possibly the only way to make it happen.
Major League Player – check.
Non-Hand-Wringing Contract, That Should Be Manageable For Any Major League Franchise – check.
Now go get a SS, another pitcher, and BP help.
No shortage of holes to fill on this squad. Welcome to Flushing, Curtis.
And yet it’s the same contract that, when given to Jason Bay, was used as an excuse for not being able to make moves. We shall see…
True, but the landscape is a little different now. The Wilpons and other teams have $20 to $26 million more national TV money annually. Their contractual commitments outside of CG are much much lower than they were when JB signed. They have more players, especially pitchers, in the pipeline that have a decent chance to contribute at the MLB level at very low cost. CG still carries some risk, but in this day and age $60 mil over 4 years is moderate risk.
Now, the Mets still need have a lot of work to do. If they stop here and leave holes or go with lame acquisitions I will be as bugged as I would be if they didn’t sign CG. They absolutely need to add a quality SP. They absolutely need to add a quality vet arm to the pen. It would benefit them greatly to upgrade SS, especially if they can find one that can leadoff at least part of the time. Lastly, a vet backup C would be nice but I consider it a luxury item at this point. Get they other holes filled appropriately and I’ll be happy and may actually be a paying customer in 2014.
2010
1. Mejia, 2. Flores, 3. Fernando Martinez, 4. Ike Davis, 5. Brad Holt, 6. Niese, 7. Havens, 8. Thole, 9. Tejada, 10. Urbina
2014
1. Sydergaard, 2. d’Arnaud, 3. Montero, 4. Smith, 5. Plawecki, 6. Flores, 7. Rosario, 8. Nimmo, 9. Cecchini, 10. deGrom
Comparing how we felt about the first crop in 2010 to how we feel about the new crop now, I don’t see a huge difference.
Unless the Mets make AT LEAST two more significant moves (I don’t count Chris Young as significant), then this signing is almost identical to the Jason Bay signing, in that its main purpose was to sell tickets and make it appear as though the Mets were serious. But there is plenty of time this winter to see if more moves will be made. I do have my doubts.
I agree with both of you partially. On the pipeline comment, and the top 10 prospects, the lists don’t mean anything until time determines who contributes. The 2014 list is more top heavy, with the top 4 ranked high across MLB. Also, I think they now have more depth below the top 10, especially with the arms. Regarding the Bay comp, agree 100% that if Alderson goes back to the scrap heap to fill the other holes, to me it will be as if they made no signings. He needs to fill all the other holes/weaknesses for opening day, still no excuses.
In 2010, the depth below the top 10 included Gee, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Den Dekker, Puello, and Valdespin. If the 2014 below-10 prospects produce a Gee and Duda for the Mets, I’d consider that pretty good. Rather than hoping for that, I’d hope for more success out of the top 10.
Re: top heavy, Syndergaard and d’Arnaud are regarded as potential impact players, Montero’s control seems to make him a good bet to be a major leaguer, and Smith is a kid with tools. Back in 2010, Mejia and Martinez were regarded as potential impact players, Ike’s Arizona State pedigree seemed to make him a good bet to be a major leaguer, and Flores was a kid with tools. So, leaving aside hindsight, I’d consider the top 4 a wash.
The 6-10 spots certainly favor 2010, with Niese and Havens at 6 and 7. I was more excited about Havens than I am about any hitter currently in the Mets system (some may have more upside, but none have performed in AA as Havens did).
Perhaps the biggest difference between now and then lies in the players recently called up? Murphy & Pagan vs Harvey & Wheeler?
Your remark about signing Granderson as a cynical move to increase ticket sales is baffling. Granderson won’t add significant value over Byrd, so how does that draw fans if they play at the same level as 2009-12?
And while there was speculation that Bay wouldn’t repeat his Boston numbers, no one lacking a working crystal ball foresaw the complete disaster that was his tenure. Had he performed well, the Mets would have won more games. That’s how you increase ticket sales.
So, #1 – bold trade for SS TBD. #2 – how about signing Bartolo Colon to a 1-yr, $8-10M contract? #3 – veteran, reliable bullpen arm; and #4 – depth to the roster. the Dice-K’s, the Harangs, etc etc etc.
Still; the Mets should get in on that. Enough BS’ing around.
2014 – A fair $18 mil to add 3 wins to an improving but not yet contending team.
2015 – A fair $12 mil to add 2 wins to a wild card long shot.
2016 – A fair $6 mil to add 1 win to a real contender
2017 – Release him and eat $24 mil for the privilege of helping the team improve from 2013-2016. If the 2016 team does make the playoffs, the added revenue and fan interest will probably make the $24 mil worth it.
One contract like this is fine, but now the Mets probably can’t afford any more. Hopefully we don’t miss out on a better player down the road because of this.
For anyone who thinks 6 WAR over the life of Granderson’s contract is pessimistic, please factor in: no short porch, age, declining speed, and positional adjustment to offense moving from CF to LF. 9 WAR wouldn’t shock me, but 3 WAR wouldn’t shock me either.
I’m guessing a decline based on his arc of the past 3 years, and also on the thing you mentioned — his last team, which got to see him play every day and is shelling out cash left and right, didn’t seem interested. Michael Kay, another guy who got to see him play every day, had this to say to ESPN: “The Mets overpaid a bit, he won’t hit HRs the way he did for the Yankees, but he’s a great guy and a great citizen.”
For whatever reason, Bay couldn’t perform for the Mets. Granderson has proven his ability to do well in New York, his average notwithstanding. But advanced statistics have long proven that strikeouts and batting average aren’t necessarily indicators for success. I’m warming to this deal: good defensive outfield, potential protection for Wright. We’ll know soon enough.
i have no problem with signing this guy. Almost anybody is better than what alderson has put in the outfield the last 3 years. But don’t say he ain’t Bay because his HRs in the Bronx went far enough to carry in the morgue. And don’t say he ain’t Bay because he succeeded in NY. Bay did the same in Boston which has the same pressure on guys.
Also, it was pointed out prior to his signing, that Jason Bay hit more than half of his homers on the road, too.
Bay’s post-Boston performance is on the level of Steve Blass, which as a child I sympathetically observed, even as it aided the Mets’ eventual division conquest. If Granderson makes like Bay, I will eat my imaginary hat. Please make note of this comment, and get back to me in July 2014. I’ll make good, I promise.
But izzy, we both agree that this was an okay signing, so I’m, quitting while I’m…not ahead, exactly, but being roughly on the same page as you will suffice.
Remember, though, when the Mets couldn’t eat the back half of the contracts of Castillo, Perez, Bay, et al?
– I believe a big benefit that goes beyond numbers is the leadership Granderson will bring to a team that doesn’t have a strong personality to guide the younger ones.
– I was hearing 3 years at $16MM per year and thought let’s just make it $50 for 3 years. Therefore, I look at the fourth year as a $10MM year. So, $15MM per year is just fine because if Pence is worth $18MM per year isn’t Granderson worth at least $15?
– It should be noted that while Granderson’s AVG was low, all his other numbers were pretty good. Also, if he did become a little pull happy in Yankee Stadium, that would account for a lower average. Therefore, I would not be surprised at an increase to about .260.
– It is presumed his centerfielder instincts will translate well to the corner outfield as it did for Carlos Beltran and give very good defense.
Okay, so that isn’t Castillo’s legacy…oh wait, yes it is.
“I agree with your reasoning to an extent, Joe. The Mets spring for a decent player and the fan base thinks they’re back on the right track. But while I’m seeing encouraged responses in the Mets community, what I see most are comments about how many holes are left to fill in order to be competitive again. So while Granderson helps to energize potential ticket buyers, I still think Alderson has to make a splash during the meetings or – to my point – the Mets are no better off than they were with Byrd. And without Harvey, worse.”
We are in agreement, in that Granderson, alone, is not nearly enough to help the Mets be a better team in 2014. However, Granderson, alone, is enough for a spike in ticket sales. Keep in mind that the people who will consider buying Mets tickets as a result of the signing are, by and large, NOT people who regularly check up on Mets blogs — rather, they are the “average Mets fan,” which I believe accounts for at least 75-90% of the total fan base (I’ve pulled this percentage out of my arse). In my experience, the “average Mets fan” could not tell you who is Travis d’Arnaud, nor could he/she pick Bobby Parnell out of a police lineup. But they probably have heard of Curtis Granderson.
This is why I’m cynical about the signing — I think it’s motivated more by ticket sales than improving the ballclub. Now, if the Mets go out and continue to spend money on the free agent market, and fill their many holes, I could be persuaded to believe they prioritize winning, and believe that creating a winning ballclub is the ultimate way to sell tickets. But that would be a grand departure from the way this club has been run since Doubleday was forced out.
And yet – it sounds strange to write this – it would be kind of weird to see you admire some sound organizational moves.
A month into the offseason the Mets have filled and upgraded their outfield without giving up prospects and they still have their “trading chips” in place.
What moré do you ask for?
Oh yes I forgot. You want the Mets to spend moré because they are from NY.
just curious
And yes I think they should spend money, in part because they are based in NY but also because they are a Major League Baseball team.
(honest question, no cynism attached)
There’s a reason that there are maybe two dozen Yankees blogs, and a few hundred Mets blogs, and I think Dan B. offers strong supporting reasons.
Here’s my take: Yankees fans expect to win, and the Yankees themselves consider anything short of a World Series, a failure. There isn’t much gray area there.
With the Mets, it’s really hard to pin down why their fans subject themselves to the suffering and misery — especially over the past 5-6 years, but really, over the past two decades (save for brief runs in 99-00 and 06-07). In KC or Pittsburgh, there is the built-in excuse of “small market.” In NY, there is no excuse for such abject failure and perennial nincompooping. When the club was run by Doubleday and Cashen, it was first-class. Once the Wilpons took control, the franchise was ridiculed as a “Mickey Mouse” operation — and they’ve lived up (down?) to that moniker with one ridiculous act of buffoonery after another. It’s difficult to find a MLB team with more built-in material for blog fodder than the Mets — they’re like a perpetual Shakespearean tragedy.
In comparison, the Yankees look like a scoop of vanilla at Baskin Robbins. Why choose that, when you have 30 other flavors to choose from in the same freezer case?