Glavine Goes – Now What?

The tom turkey came a few days early in Atlanta, as the AP is reporting that Tom Glavine has signed with the Braves.

Thank goodness … I certainly did not want to go through another month or so of hem-haw like we endured last winter. Everyone knew Tom wanted to go back to Atlanta, and he took a “hometown discount” of reportedly $8M with no incentives (compare that to the $13M option he declined from the Mets). The question is, however, will he be returning to the same “Tara” he once knew?

Actually, I’m not too comfortable with the state of the Mets’ rotation in comparison to the Braves’ at this juncture. Yes, the Mets are probably better off without Glavine, but look at it this way: Glavine becomes a #4 starter on the Braves, while he was the Mets’ #1 last year. Had he remained a Met, he could have arguably been their #2 to start 2008. Yes, Orlando Hernandez had a better 2007, but both El Duque and Pedro Martinez are annual health concerns. Despite his comeback in September, there’s no guarantee that Pedro will throw 175-200 innings next year. And we all know Hernandez is lucky to make 25 starts in any year. The second-half slumps of Oliver Perez and John Maine keep them as #3 or #4s, for now. You expound on the potential of Maine and Perez until you’re orange and blue in the face but it doesn’t erase the fact that neither pitcher has thrown 200 innings in a season, and neither has put up back-to-back 125-inning seasons in their lives. That’s an important fact, specifically in this day and age of mediocre middle relief and in particular the Mets’ questionable bullpen.

While we can all agree that Glavine was not the ace he used to be, and he let us down hard in September, he averaged 201 innings per season in his five years as a Met. We know for certain he would have given the Mets another 175 innings at the least in 2008. I don’t know that any of the current Met starters are as sure a thing to hit that mark. Can they? Yes. Will they? Maybe. Glavine? Almost definitely.

In contrast, the Braves have John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, and now Glavine, all as a virtual lock to throw at minimum 175 innings next year, likely 200+. After that they have Chuck James, who compares to John Maine in many ways and threw 160 innings in 2007. They also have question mark Mike Hampton, who when healthy is a 200+ inning guy. And they have Buddy Carlyle to fill in at the back end if Hampton falters again. And they have Jair Jurrjens and Jo-Jo Reyes, who may or may not be ready for prime-time. Yes, they have question marks, just as the Mets do. But they have three 200-inning horses to keep the pressure off the pen, while the Mets have none.

That said, one or more of these things has to happen:

1. Maine and Perez continue to fulfill our highest expectations.

2. Pedro must come back 100% and suffer no relapses.

3. El Duque must make at least 25 starts

4. Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber must step up and pitch 150 innings

5. The Mets must sign or deal for a horse to replace Glavine’s innings

6. The Mets must sign or deal for another proven pitcher and/or pitching prospect.

7. The Mets bullpen has to return to its 2006 form.

The above scenarios are not impossible — in fact they’re somewhat realistic expectations. But most of them must happen. It’s kind of like a Chinese restaurant menu: one from column A, two from column B, etc.

First and foremost, the Mets cannot go into 2008 without replacing the innings left behind by Glavine. Even with Glavine, they needed another horse to guard against a Pedro hiccup, an El Duque DL stint, and fifth starter syndrome (i.e., Pelfrey busting again). We cannot realistically expect Pedro and El Duque to throw 200 innings apiece, and for Pelfrey to have his breakout season — that’s asking for a minor miracle. Not to mention that we’re pinning all that on the assumption that Maine and Perez will be the same or better than they were in 2007.

In other words, signing Carlos Silva or Livan Hernandez is an “at mininum” acquisition. The Mets need to look into adding at least one additional starter, if not more, as well.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
  1. Micalpalyn November 19, 2007 at 12:35 pm
    Tom is good, BUT Joe considering Tom was costing $11M/yr+ I hardly see this as a loss. In fact his love of his ex-girlfriend was a distraction. In production terms I think (a) Carlos Silva could adequately replace Tom.

    As I said before I expect TWO starting pitchers. One by trade and one FA. That $$$ Tom freed up will go along way.

  2. joe November 19, 2007 at 12:46 pm
    I don’t know about that, Mic. Silva may cost a 4-year commitment at around $40M. That’s a bit long and pricey for a #3 / #4 guy. Glavine at one year and $13M was definitely too much money, but at least they’re out of the deal by the end of ’08.

    I still prefer Silva, but the terms argument doesn’t fly, IMHO.

    But you’re right that $13M could be used to sign a FA catcher, for example (oh wait, they already tried that!).

  3. whatdatmean November 19, 2007 at 12:48 pm
    Agreed that tommy g will be tough to replace, and SP is the #1 priority. This is solved in 3 parts.
    1-sign a back end starter that can eat innings [silva, hikora, or livan], hikora would be ideal bc he has the most upside. silva may also do well switching to the NL
    2-trade a pkg of gotay, Lmilz, Heilman, pelfrey, humber -all have value, contrary to popular belief, and throw-ins like muniz, collazo, a-hern, b johnson, carp. keeping kunz, mulvey, fmart, and gomez at all costs. an ace isnt needed, but would be nice, a solid #2 would do. Attainable? blanton, gorzellany, snell, garza, slowey, baker, etc…
    3- sign a low risk/high reward guy like colon, prior, garcia, or clement to a AAA, incentive deal to compete for the 5 spot.
    -moving el duque and pelfrey to the BP/spot start, adding a nice mix of “stuff” to the BP, and the ability to go a few innings if needed.
    -humber needs atleast a half year to get seasoning, but can fill in as the 5th starter, and go 6+ for atleast 1/2 the year. He may take his lumps, but he may hold his own and go .500
    -as far as OP and Maine..agreed they dont have a track record. They were 2 of the hottest pitchers last yr in the 1st half. with their 1st full season under their belt, they will improve on that, no be perfect, but even if they are a little better, they are a very solid 2-3-4 type SP. With Maine looking to be a #1 type w/in 2 yrs. Pedro and OP are the only 2 with IP concerns, maine constantly goes 6+, OP usually has an early exit 1x/mo bc he gets shelled. Pedro is a health risk. adding 1 mediocre inning eater, and a trade for a young SP is just what the dr ordered for both this year and next.
    so, please, stop with the negativity. we will be fine as long as we make smart additions
  4. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 1:02 pm
    I don’t consider glavine an innings eater. Sure, he pitched 200 innings, but he also made 34 starts. Looking at the 8 guys that pitched 5 starts for the mets last year, Glavine wasn’t in the top 1/2 in innings per start. El duque led the team with 6.15 innings per start, followed by Ollie at 6.10, Sosa at 6.05 in his 14 starts, and Maine at 5.97 per start. Glavine was 5th at 5.89 innings per start. Pelfrey at 5.77 in 13 starts, Pedro at 5.6, and Lawrence at 4.83 rounded out the pitchers who threw 5 starts or more. Glavine taxed the pen as more than most of the other mets starters.

    Duque also led the starters in WHIP (walks and hit per inning) at 1.18, followed by maine at 1.27 and ollie at 1.31. Glavie and pedro tied at 1.41, followed by sosa at 1.54 and pelfrey at 1.62. Who cares about lawrence, I didn’t take the time to look. Glavines time in the game wasn’t exactly the most effective pitching on the team either.

    I think you have to believe pedro will improve upon the innings per start numbers next season, when his pitch count is not being monitored as closely even if his whip does not improve. Pedro and Duque should be considered injury risks, but the solution to that is to have better help waiting in AAA. If the mets wan’t to, they can stash both pelfrey and humber away in AAA to start the season, and call them up to make starts as injuries present themselves.

    Glavine doesn’t pitch that many innings per start, and what he did pitch was not the best quality on the team. He’s actually below league average in both departments. Replacing him won’t be that hard. Honestly, Going with Pedro and Pelfrey would replace the innings if willie actually uses sele’s replacement. I still would like to see an upgrade in the rotation, but I think quality of innings pitched is much more important than quantity.

    I’d like to see omar add a front line starter, but if one is not available I don’t think we need another 200 inning garbage thrower. Looking at the numbers above, you could make the case that Jorge Sosa was as effective as glavine last year. Livan trew 6.19 innings per start with a 1.51 whip, while silva was 6.12 and 1.31. In my opinion, Silva would be a nice fit while Livan is a waste of time and money. Considering that both played in hitters parks last year, I think either would be considered at least as good as glavine was though. Glavine has had a great career, but he really isn’t above average anymore. I really think we already have 4 guys in the rotation who are better than glavine at this point in his career (Pedro, maine, ollie, and duque). In reality, we are looking for an above average 5th starter to replace him.

    Whomever we bring in to replace Glavine, I think the key to saving the bullpen is to not have an aaron sele tye wasting a roster spot. Willie used darrin oliver with regularity in 2006, and the pen was just fine with many of the same starters. I think a 7th arm in the pen that actually gets to pitch would go alot farther than a guy that makes all of his starts but throws garbage.

  5. isuzudude November 19, 2007 at 1:19 pm
    I’m not sensing negativity, but whatever…

    The problem with the Mets rotation is that it’s intrinsically flawed. We have too many important spots designated to pitchers who are either injury risks or inexperienced. But I think almost all teams have that same problem. Case in point is Boston, who won this year’s World Series. Matsuzaka never pitched an inning in the majors prior to this season, Schilling and Lester were both hurt for large portions of the season, and Beckett was coming off possibly his worst season of his career in 2006. But they pieced it all together at the right time and won it all. The Mets just have to go with what they have and work around it. Pedro and Hernandez are injury risks, Perez and Maine are inexperienced, and as of right now we have no stand-out #5 starter, but we’ll get one, and we’ll roll the dice with what we have and hope it comes out right.

    The more I look at things, the less I see the possibility of signing or adding more than 1 starting pitcher, unless there is a trade where major league talent is dealt. I’d like to see Silva signed, so for purposes of this arguement, let’s say the rotation is Pedro, Perez, Maine, El Duque, and Silva. I agree it’s great to have depth, but if we also sign Livan, what happens next? I know the popular answer is sending Duque to the pen, but I’m just not a fan. I think he’s more prone to injury pitching in Willie’s bullpen system than starting every 5 days. And if, or when, he gets hurt again, then we have Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, Vargas, and who ever else we sign to minor league deals waiting in the wings. I know nothing here is going to impress anybody, but it’s the hand we’ve been dealt. It’s certainly no guarentee that anyone in that rotation will pitch 200 innings, but it’s also not a stretch to believe all could pitch over 175.

    I’m against trading Heilman for a starter. I don’t think we realize how valuable and good this guy really is. I’ve said this all before, but again I’d try to target guys like Vazquez, Bonderman, Blanton, or Johan if it only takes a package including Gomez, Milledge, Pelfrey, and Humber from our crop of high-level prospects.

  6. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 1:40 pm
    The mets will recieve the 18th pick from atlanta as long as the braves don’t sign cordero or rowand. If they sign either of those guys the mets would get atlanta’s 2nd pick. They also will recieve a supplemental pick which will be no worse than 34th. If lowell, cordero, or rowand resign with their team, that pick would move up one slot for each player who resigns. I think the prospects they can acquire with those two picks are worth more than glavine by themselves, considering they can get at least as good a producer on the free agent market for nothing.
  7. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 1:45 pm
    Lowell just agreed to terms with the sox…make that supplemental pick 33 at worst.
  8. joe November 19, 2007 at 1:58 pm
    Ski-

    I agree that, over the long haul, the draft picks are worth more than having Glavine in 2008. I also agree that Glavine was not the best starter the Mets had in ’07. And though you point out his 5.89 innings per start as not being so great when compared to other Mets starters, you neglect the importance of the fact that he did take all 34 of his turns. I believe John Maine was the only other pitcher not to miss a start. While Glavine’s 5.89 innings may have put a toll on the bullpen, what about the starts missed by Duque, Perez, Sosa? Or the fact that Pelfrey couldn’t hold on to the #5 spot? When those guys weren’t making starts, shmucks like Brian Lawrence, Chan Ho Park, and Dave Williams were taking those turns. So again, which is more hurtful to the bullpen — Glavine’s 5.89 IP or the 3-4 awful innings thrown by the Lawrences and Parks?

    Even if Glavine’s innings weren’t of great quality, in my mind they were extremely valuable when you view him as a #4-type starter. He takes the ball every four days and gives you 5.89 innings.

    Again, I’m not arguing that the Mets should have done more to re-sign him, or that I wanted to see him in orange and blue next year. My point is that the Mets absolutely need a guy LIKE him.

  9. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 2:14 pm
    I just think they are better overpaying for silva, or overpaying for quality in a trade. Adding just one of those guys allows the team to put all of their prospects in AAA. They would have pelfrey, humber, and mulvey in the minor who are not injury risks. Hopefully, they still have sosa in the pen, who could step in and start. I wouldn’t be upset if they gave some guys coming off of injury a brian lawrence type deal…stay in the minor’s and we’ll use you in the case of an injury. I think the problem wasn’t the injuries and missed starts, it was the lack of depth in the system. Pedro being back definately increases the depth, and signing someone to be a starter so that pelfrey can stay in AAA does more for it. I honestly think that sosa would actually get to pitch in an aaron sele role, and liked him better as a spot starter then lawrence, williams, park, and vargas.

    My personal preference is silva. He’s only 28, not injury prone, and played in a hitter’s park in the american league. While there are better pitchers available via trade, silva costs nothing in terms of prospects or picks. He is expected to get the same as glavine made this year, and he performed better. If nothing else, glavine leaving forces us to look at an easily attainable upgrade. The turf there couldn’t help a groundball pitcher much, and shea would benefit him alot. Having the mets offense behind him couldn’t hurt either. Regardless of what we trade for, I don’t think signing silva could be a mistake. Remember, at the end of this season, ollie, pedro, and duque are all free agents. I think some sort of deal will get reached with ollie before the off season, but that’s still 3 big holes.

  10. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 2:16 pm
    Sorry about the spelling and grammer today guys…I’m a Bills fan who needed to drink alot to make it through the game last night.
  11. isuzudude November 19, 2007 at 2:27 pm
    haha…you can’t tell me you’re not used to getting your butts handed to you by New England by now.

    I’m tending to agree with skibo here. The fact that the bullpen was taxed by guys like Lawrence and Williams wasn’t Pedro and El Duque’s fault, it was the fault of Omar for not adding more capable arms to the minors as insurance policies. And Glavine throwing 5.89 innings over 34 starts is a lot more hurtful to the bullpen than the handful of poor starts the Lawrence’s and Williams’ compiled over the course of the season. Adding a guy like Silva will replace the starts made by Glavine, and likely add more quality innings. Still, it would behoove the Mets to get or keep more depth in AAA, so when injuries occur, we’re not stuck with the kind of bums we turned to in 2007.

  12. joe November 19, 2007 at 2:35 pm
    “I wouldn’t be upset if they gave some guys coming off of injury a brian lawrence type deal…” … I think the problem wasn’t the injuries and missed starts, it was the lack of depth in the system”

    But here’s the problem — they DID make deals like that, last year. Aaron Sele, Chan Ho Park, Williams, Sosa, and Lawrence. All five of those guys were supposed to be the depth. Only Sosa panned out, sort of.

    This year, who will accept those type of minor league deals? Probably not Lieber, who should be able to get an MLB contract somewhere. Same with Colon. So who will take those contracts? Tony Armas, Pedro Astacio, Rodrigo Lopez, Sidney Ponson, Jamey Wright … it ain’t looking much better than Park, Sele, et al.

  13. joe November 19, 2007 at 2:47 pm
    OK, for those “handful of starts”:

    There were a total of 11 starts by these fill-ins: Brian Lawrence, Jason Vargas, Dave Williams, Chan Ho Park, and Philip Humber.

    Combined, that group in 11 starts had 1 win, 5 losses, pitched 51 innings (4.63/start), allowed 84 hits and 24 walks (2.12 WHIP), struck out 17, and posted a 10.41 ERA.

    Since the Mets finished one game out of first, should these 11 games be considered significant?

  14. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 2:57 pm
    Sosa and lawrence were those type of deals, williams was on the roster, park and sele weren’t injury guys…they were just bad. I’d be looking at guys like prior or clement, who had plus stuff at one point and should still have at least average stuff. Also, keeping a guy who you would give a spot start to in the pen wouldn’t hurt. Sele never got that start, and never really pitched, so he was a waste. Park and Lawrence turned out to be awful, but if sele had been a capable replacement, would they ever have gotten the chance. I actually liked the park thing, they tried to catch lightning in a bottle, when it became clear that they didn’t…they cut him loose. I wish they had done the same with lawrence. I actually didn’t mind when sosa had to pitch, although I wish he was an occasional fill in instead of a regular for a stretch.

    The point I’m trying to make is that Pedro, Maine, Perez, Silva, and Duque with Sosa in the pen and Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, and a guy like prior in the wings looks alot better than Glavine, Maine, Perez, Duque, and Pelfrey with Sele in the pen and Guys like Park and Vargas as your best AAA options. That alone should help the bullpen be much better in 2008, creating less holes that we have to fill. It also lets the team deepen the farm, by not giving up picks.

    Since 2001, the mets have had 6 guys drafted 38th or better in the draft. They are Wright, Heilman, Kazmir, Milledge, Humber, and Pelfrey. Having 3 picks up there this year is one of the best developments of the offseason…Thank you atlanta.

  15. isuzudude November 19, 2007 at 3:07 pm
    Ok, you got me. Yes, absolutely those starts are significant looking back. But my point is Omar needs to do a better job of getting insurance policy pitchers (better said than done?).

    Still, considering the numbers posted about how Glavine’s 200 innings were not extremely quality, why continue to defend him? We all agree we need to replace his innings, which is why we all think signing Silva is top priority. And all indications are that Silva can put up similar quantity statistics while providing improved quality statistics. If Pedro and El Duque combine for 325 innings, and Perez and Maine continue doing in 2008 what they did in 2007, what’s the reason to stress?

  16. joe November 19, 2007 at 3:19 pm
    I guess what it boils down to is I don’t like Pelfrey, Humber, Sosa and Vargas as the potential fill-ins, and I think that getting 325 innings from Pedro and El Duque AND asking Perez and Maine to continue developing is expecting too much.

    My feeling is this: Pelfrey projects as a middle reliever / setup guy, and is not going to make it as a starter anytime soon. Vargas’ injury puts him on the backburner for now. Humber needs at least another half-year in AAA. Sosa was a flash in the pan. Duque will be lucky to make 25 starts, and hard-pressed to pitch like he did in ’07. Perez is going to blow out his arm with that violent delivery.

    So maybe there IS negativity here, as whatdatmean pointed out earlier.

    Thank goodness this is a short week … I need some turkey, stuffing, and few bottles of Blue Moon (hat tip to SK!) to escape this paranoia. This always happens to me when the Braves add starting pitchers in the offseason.

  17. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 3:29 pm
    Even adding Glavine, it’s not the braves that worry me. As of today, their lineup would be:

    SS-Escobar
    2b-Johnson
    3b-Larry
    1b-Tex
    RF-Francour
    C-Mccann
    LF-Diaz
    CF-Harris

    Rotation

    Smoltz
    Hudson
    Glavine
    Hampton??
    James
    Jurrjens

    Bullpen

    Soriano
    ?????

    Mike Gonzalez is a huge question mark, and who else is a known commodity (and good) in that pen? I don’t expect much out of hampton less than a year after tommy john, and that is 2 40 something’s in the rotation. I’d expect further decline from both, though not as much from smoltz. Chipper is about as healthy as alou, The outfield is a huge question, and Tex is in a walk year as well as a boras guy (I expect he’ll be excellent in 2008, but elsewhere in 2009). They also just gave up the farm on dotel and tex. I don’t envy the position that team is in, espescially after this season.

    That said, the phillies worry me.

  18. sincekindergarten November 19, 2007 at 3:49 pm
    Just finished a Blue Moon . . . after reading the replies on this thread, I need another.

    There! . . . Last year, I thought that the Braves would be back fighting things out by next (’08) year, so I’m not surprised. But, the Braves are going to be negotiating with Father Time to an extent, too, with Smoltz and Glavine.

    The replies on this thread, and the similar ones on MetsBlog, make me wonder why the deuce we even bother. Gang, it’s a long season. Let’s not declare the ’08 season dead and buried just yet. Let’s let them play the games, eh?

    We don’t know what Omar has up his sleeve. How many of the deals that have been good ones for the Mets have we known about before they were announced? I’d be shocked to find out that we were never in it for Carlos Silva (if that ever is the case), no matter what anyone thinks about him. Who knows–we may get both Silva and Livan signed by Christmas. I also think that we’ll see one of these names on the Mets’ roster by the New Year–“Haren” or “Santana,” and it won’t be Ervin (or Carlos, but I love that guy’s guitar). I think that Billy Beane wants too much for Joe Blanton, given the sort of season that he had this year, and given the choice between Blanton and Dan Haren, I’d take Haren, as Blanton’s weight distribution (heavy torso) bodes ill for his knees.

    I haven’t even gotten to the bottom of my latest Blue Moon yet . . . 😮

  19. joe November 19, 2007 at 4:15 pm
    Let them play the games? Are you nuts??? We can’t trust them to play out the games! Do you have any idea what they’re going to do to the Strat-O-Matic cards after next season ???

    🙂

  20. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 4:18 pm
    I’m not writing off the braves, simply criticizing. Frank Wren, the new GM, starts his tenure by not making an offer for andruw jones, trading renteria for prospects, and signing a 42 year old pitcher at the expense of a first round draft pick. Tommy was going there anyway, what was the harm in waiting and making the mets offer arbitration. If omar had started his mets tenure like that, I can only imagine the posts on this site. If they are in win now mode, signing tommy makes sense, but why weren’t they looking for proven major leaguers for renteria? If they are rebuilding, why sign a 42 year old who now blocks your kids for a year at the expense of a pick, not to mention the deadline trades (although those were schurholtz). What are they doing about their biggest hole in center? These moves all make sense individually, but not taken as a whole. Its like they are on the fence about which direction to go, so they are making changes for the sake of making them.
  21. joe November 19, 2007 at 4:46 pm
    This isn’t a Braves blog, but I’ll bite … I think Wren is doing OK, because Renteria is no longer needed with the emergence of Escobar, and he got Jurrjens, who could be “on the cusp” as well as the Gorkys Hernandez kid. Jurrjens and Gorkys compare to Pelfrey and Gomez, though some scouts believe Jurrjens is further along than Pelfrey. Glavine comes on board as insurance and to take pressure off Jurrjens — much like Park/Sele was supposed to do for Pelf last year. Giving up the #1 pick was bad, but Glavine is a draw at the ticket booth to the Altanter fans — something that can’t be sneezed at. They’ve already found a stopgap for CF in Josh Anderson, who’ll presumably help keep CF warm for Gorkys H and/or other prospects. Plus it’s still early, they may find another CF before the winter is over (Georgia-born Cameron?).
  22. skibolton November 19, 2007 at 5:04 pm
    I’m just saying, if omar came in and started like that, we’d be all over him. Mets fans already bash him because we didn’t get johan or haren yet, What would we be doing if we traded beltran for a couple of prospects, let alou walk, and then signed curt schilling?
  23. joe November 19, 2007 at 7:26 pm
    Hmm … yeah, from that POV, you’re right. We’d have him strung up by his you-know-whats if those were his first four moves. Point taken.
  24. whatdatmean November 20, 2007 at 7:55 am
    I don’t understand the Mets sometimes. From an organizational standpoint, I would have to imagine that you build a team based on 2-3 years at a time. The Mets making sure they can compete now, and setting the table for the next few years. Looking a the mets, we also have to see it this way as well. we may be inbetween years on those brackets, you dont always sign players like its “year 1” of your plan, when its really year 3. And the market kinda determines where and what we may be able to do.
    After last years collapse, for the 1st time since he got here, Im pretty sure LMilz or Gomez will be dealt for either an ace, or a young #2/3 SP that projects high. Ok, I get that, and I hope its true. I think gomez is going to be a stud, moreso than LMilz, but we need SP, so whatever it takes. Howcome we dont look in house to add depth at some places and make the moves we need.
    1.At this stage of the game both humber and pelfrey project the same, with the liklyhood that humber sees earlier success, bc Pelf has command issues with his secondary pitches. We are not going to start both, and we know that 09 will pit mulvey vs humber for a rotation spot [if they are still here]. Why not Pelf for the BP???? he will add depth at a needed postition. Will be seasoning against MLB players. He has 2 + pitches, which is all you need in the pen. His stats were horrible out of the stretch last year, but with work, im sure he can gain better form. After a year in the BP, he may be MLB ready to move up in the rotation. Out of the BP his work can be micromanaged, and put in situations where he can be successful. A full year of bullpen sessions will help him learn more, and work out the kinks. if nothing else, atleast he will be useful to the club. A spot start or 2 as needed, possibly taking over a spot if/when an injury arises. Next year, he can step in having been slowly brought to a MLB level, bc he definatly has the stuff. Damn Peterson…have no idea why you scrapped his curve. It was sick, that should be brought back into the repetoir…only use it when it cant hurt you, bc he cant control it yet. But it was nasty! If pelfrey is a starter this year, there is no reason that humber cant be atleast a midseason addtn to the pen. with a wainright like curveball…he may be of some use.
    2. Add Heilman to the rotation or trade him….i know we talk about this every year, but this year it makes the most sense. he hates the BP, he’s good at it, but he hates it, and he is inconsistant. This year, there are more quality RP than there are SP, and we have him on the cheap for the next few years. He cant be that bad bc he has been having success now. Can he make the transition back now? Its been done before him by others, so i dont see why not. He would slot nicely in the 4/5 spot. He could be an inhouse option that will free up OP to trade w/an OF for a true ace, bc that package may be able to do it. If not, here is the starter we are missing, he will be happy [probably still wont smile]. If not, still sign RP’s, and trade him to get a reasonable starter, or in package for cordero.
    3. Move Gotay to OF/1B….this isnt in the rumor mill at all, but it makes soooo much sense. We have 2 holes next year, 1B [no delgado], and potentially LF. In addition, this year, Delgado, Gomez, and/or Lmilz are on the block. Castillo is here for 4yrs, or until his leg falls off, so 2b is out. Easley is the primary IF sub. Hmmm….where is the logical spot to put this guy to get use out of a .300 + switch hitter [should only be lefty, he can hit from the rt at all]???? If we move to OF, he can spell Lmilz and Alou in tandem with chavez. He does provide a spark to the lineup, so we should get him into more spots. If Delgago and/or LMilz get traded, he could platoon with a veteran player [i.e. green] for a year, or maybe more, until we figure out what he is. Not much to go on other than he is an enigma much like OP. Either trade them while they are hot and valuable, or find a use for them.
    4. Start grooming F-Mart for 1st base. Most minor league reports say that his good defense is getting softer as he gets bigger and starts to fill out. He projects as a power hitter with reasonable range in the OF. Since we are guaranteed a whole at 1B next year, and 2 OF in Beltran and LMilz/gomez in the OF for the next few years. looks like there is an opening. It would great to get an in-house power hitting 1B, bc they are not as common as they used to be, and sign an OF bc they are more readily available. He may be able to see time as early as ’09.

    Here is a nice thought .. the Mets swinging a deal sending OP/LMilz +AAA for sabbathia + shoppach, or to san diego for peavy, or bedard + hernandez.. makes sense for both.
    peavy/sabbathia/bedard, pedro, maine, duque, heilman
    Pelf moves to the pen with an eye on either Pedro’s or duque’s spot next year.
    with mulvey, humber, vargas in AAA

    Im just saying…moving around guys like pelf, humber, heilman, gotay, and f-mart to positions of necessity, and setting the table for this year and next. The mets may already have the parts to move in a deal to get their ace, if not, they still have some answers on their roster.
    If nothing else, atleast we dont have to see yorvit, tommy g, and brian lawrence on the Mets…..wow, then I would drink Blue Moon out of business.