Garland Off the Market
Personally, I’m happy to see this deal go down: Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. I had been concerned that the Mets might give away several prospects in a deal for Garland, and that he wouldn’t be worth the cost. Now, it’s likely not an issue, unless the Angels are looking to flip him.
Hopefully, Garland’s exit means there’s less of a chance of Jose Contreras being dumped on a team such as the Mets.
In addition, it could also mean that the Angels — who already have plenty of pitching depth — may be more willing to part with Ervin Santana. The Angels rotation currently looks like this: John Lackey, Jon Garland, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Santana, and Joe Saunders. That’s one too many, and Santana had a horrendous 7-14 season, posting a 5.76 ERA. No one’s sure exactly what went wrong, but one thing was for certain: he was a heckuva lot more hittable than he was previously. Santana gave up 174 hits in only 150 innings in ’07, after allowing only 181 in 204 IP the year before. Perhaps he’s injured, or maybe the AL simply figured him out. In any case, it seems the 25-year-old righty is ripe for a change in scenery.
The problem, however, is that the Angels need a bat, which the Mets don’t have to offer. Wait, I think we’ve already established the Mets don’t have much of anything to offer to anybody. If anything, this deal for Garland gives the Angels more flexibility in their supposed trade talks with the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera. So we may well see Ervin Santana in Shea — in a Florida uniform.
But maybe the Mets DO have a bat to trade. If the Cabrera deal falls through, the Angels still will need a bat. They might consider sending Santana to the Mets for Lastings Milledge, for example. I’d have to think long and hard about that one. Or, they might be interested in a one-year stopgap for 1B / DH — a guy like Carlos Delgado. Would the Mets offer Delgado to the Angels for Ervin Santana and, say, Casey Kotchman? Would the Angels accept?
There’s been a lot of hype on Kotchman, but I don’t think such a deal would be so far-fetched. After all, Kotchman only hit 11 HRs last year, and never hit more than 10 in a minor league season. He could be a Mark Grace / Sean Casey type — a good hitter for average but low on the power. That makes his value as a first baseman low, and his importance to the Angels equally undervalued. They need guys who can hit the ball over the fence, such as Delgado. Who do you think would be better suited to the current Mets’ lineup — a fading Delgado, who may hit 25 HRs but bat .260, clog the bases and continue to resemble a piece of heavy furniture at first base? Or a kid such as Kotchman, who won’t hit many dingers but will hit in the .280-.300 range with 30-40 doubles, take 50-75 walks, strike out less than 50 times, and play excellent defense at first base? Think hard about this one — which player would you rather have batting sixth, behind Moises Alou, next year? And if you could add a former phenom such as Ervin Santana to the deal? I think I might do that deal even if it had to include Mike Pelfrey.
Of course, this is all conjecture and a big fantasy in my mind. But who knows, the Angels might be willing to consider it. Your thoughts?
The Angels are supposedly desperate for a guy who can hit homeruns. Maybe they believe what all the pro-Delgado people around here believe — that last year was a blip and that he’ll magically return to the hitter he was 2-3 years ago. And it wouldn’t be much of a gamble, since he’d be a one-year stopgap with a club option for a second year.
Santana’s value is down due to the awful season, and Kotchman is valued only by the Billy Beatniks. If the Mets add a prospect (Pelfrey? Gomez?), they might like the deal.
Would you do it ? Or do you think Delgado is going to return to 35 HRs, 115 RBI, .280 AVG, 75 BB?
Even if you think Delgado will put up those numbers, would you do the deal?
I cant believe you have not wriiten on this juicy piece.
Kotchman may provide a good glove and average, but we need power if we’re moving Delgado. Wright and Beltran can’t be the only hitters in the lineup with 20+ HR power. Be patient with Delgado, and know a lot of serviceable 1B will be available after this season is over.
I am also obsessed with getting rid of delgado there, joe. I hate him. I’d trade him for a pair of shoes at this point, I really would.
The guy looks like a .280-.300 hitter with doubles power and about 10 HRs. Granted, not many homeruns, but a guy batting about .285 with 35-40 doubles behind Reyes-Castillo-Wright-Beltran-Alou is going to drive in his share of runs. Delgado only drove in as many as he did because of all the opportunities he had in front of him.
If you go to Baseball Prospectus, you can see that Delgado came to bat with 403 runners on base and drove in 63 of them last year (14.4%). In comparison, Kotchman drove in 57 of 334 (17%). Generally I am not into stats but my eyes have opened to this one, which really devalues the RBI. Delgado drives in more runs not necessarily because he’s a great run producer as much as he has ample opps.
I am too deeply scalded by our former 1st base pretenders including eddie murray and marvelous mo vaughn too simply jettison del on one poor(?) season.
I am more likely to DUMP Randolph and his excuse full, no remorse butt.
Mic — Paul LoDuca can drive in 90 runs in the #5 spot with Reyes, Castillo, Wright and Beltran hitting ahead of him. Unless the fly-swatting Delgado with the cement feet and iron glove gets back to 35+ HR production, he’s an albatross.
Where the heck is Matt Himelfarb to back me up with stats when I need him???
🙂
Back to the Delgado discussion: Joe, how do you figure the Angels to be a poor offensive team in 2007? They scored 822 runs, which ranked 6th in all of baseball, and they hit .284 as a team, good for 4th. Primarily batting 5th or 6th in that lineup, with all those runs being scored, Kotchman managed just 68 RBI in 443 at-bats (which is roughly the amount I’d expect him to play if the Mets acquired him). You can throw percentages and educated statistics at me all you want, but that is not the sign of a big time run producer. Next, put him in a harder to hit NL with all new pitchers and playing his home games at a tougher ballpark, in perhaps the most scrutinized sports city in the world, and watch Kotchman develop into Rico Brogna before your very eyes.
Still, I’m not seeing the Angels as a realistic trading partner. I may be high on Delgado, but they’re probably not, and they’re probably as high as you are on Kotchman. Even so, they have to know they can get a better deal in return for Ervin and Casey than Carlos and Pelfrey (can you say Miguel Cabrera?).
You really should re-consider the OBI%, because it makes a helluva lot of sense. Go back and read what I wrote: Kotchman came to bat with 334 runners on base, and drove in 57. Delgado had almost a hundred more runners to potentially drive in, and drove in only 6 more than Kotchman. Put another way: if Kotchman had the same 403 runners on base last year, the numbers suggest he would have driven in 68 of them. Add in his 11 HRs and you have 79 RBI — 8 less than Delgado (who hit himself in 24 times). I would take 79 RBI from my #6 hitter if he’s also drawing walks and getting on base so he can score runs himself (Kotchman’s OBP: .372 Delgado: .333).
Anyway, I don’t think Kotchman is someone that should be target #1 for the Mets — to me he’d be a nice addition to a deal that brought Ervin here, and assuming that the Angels really are after a slugger, Delgado fits the bill and the Mets would then need a first baseman. It was a nifty package that worked for everyone, in my head.
Also, I know you didn’t say the Angels would be a poor offensive team, but you did say they were a poor offensive team last season, which, according to the stats I posted, is clearly not the case. And as the primary 1B on Anaheim, batting 5th or 6th behind the likes of Figgins, Cabrera, Vladimir, and Garrett Anderson, I would expect more than 68 RBI out of Kotchman. I think Kotchman is more set up as a “table-setter” type hitter, like a mini-John Olerud. A gap to gap hitter with little power but good ability to get on base. Delgado is the prototypical power hitter, who you want up with runners on base because he will hit home runs to drive in all runners instead of singles that only score 1 or 2. And I stand firm in believing that if Delgado is dealt, another power hitter will need to be sought because no successful team can only have 2 everyday players, being Beltran and Wright, who can hit 20+ home runs over the course of a season.
As we’ve done many times before, we’ll agree to disagree. I’m for keeping Delgado, you’re for trading (although I’m not sure how low you’d be willing to settle to get rid of him). We’ll see what the future holds.
I suppose we will have to agree to disagree, because although homeruns are indeed important in this day and age, I’m not certain that a.) a championship team needs more than 2 guys with 20+ homers and b.) that Wright and Beltran are the only 20-HR guys on the Mets next year.
For one, there’s a chance Jose Reyes can hit for more power, as he did in ’06. Secondly, Moises Alou has 20-HR potential. Third, there is Lastings Milledge, who if he isn’t going to hit 20-25 then I want an explanation as to why he’s being handed RF and what he’s going to do to provide value. Finally, if the Mets are able to pry away Ramon Hernandez, he also has the potential to hit 20 HR. So I don’t see losing Delgado’s 25 HR, 15-20 DPs, 140 Ks, awful OBP, and abysmal fielding as major.
Now just for fun, let me point out that the NL West Champion AZ D’Backs had only two players who hit 20 or more HRs. The AL West Champion Angels (94-68) had only one player with more than 20. The Red Sox had three, though of them one hit only 20 and another 21. I get your point — that homeruns are important — but unless Delgado gets back to hitting 35+ dingers his shortcomings are too glaring to ignore.