Ripple Effect on Relief
In the past few days, both Scott Linebrink and Francisco Cordero left Milwaukee to sign massive four-year contracts. Those two signings have significantly affected an already thin market for middle relief, in several ways.
The most obvious, of course, is that those two pitchers are now off the market. Additionally, the Brewers now must find two arms to replace them — certainly they’re not looking at Guillermo Mota as an option to fill either of their roles. At minimum, the Brewers need to find a closer, as it’s doubtful they’ll send Derrick Turnbow to the end of games again. But, there aren’t many closers available — which means they’ll be looking at setup men, quasi-closers, and failed firemen such as Brian Fuentes, Octavio Dotel, and Troy Percival. The demand for those types has a trickle-down effect, and suddenly drives up the value for fringe guys such as Salomon Torres. Whereas two weeks ago a team might have been able to pick up, say, a Dan Wheeler in an under-the-radar deal, now it will likely take a decent prospect to pry him away from the Rays. Not to mention what the Nationals will be asking for Chad Cordero.
Which way will the Mets go? Will they send two top prospects to Washington for the “other” Cordero? Would they give up a Kevin Mulvey for a Fuentes or Wheeler? Will they give the questionable Dotel or Percival an overvalued two-year, $16M deal? Or will Omar’s scouting staff continue to scrape the waiver wire and the winter leagues in search of the next Chad Bradford and Pedro Feliciano? Or will they do something that should have been done six months ago, and tell both Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey to get used to pitching from the stretch?
Should be interesting to see this develop over the next few weeks.
Where to start:
a. We have 3-4 relievers; Aaron (who I’d trade), Wags (who I’d keep right now), feliciano and possibly dirty sanchez. I exclude Sho for obvious reasons.
b. In 2006 We had Loop and no one.
c. For 2008 We have options: I wanted to trade Wags but at this time with Cisco and Mo not options Wags is it. However I am inclined to fill the 7th and 8th innings with other high risk high return options: Ryan wagner, Eddie Guardado are names that intrigue me. Also I ‘d give a long look to Octavio. If i traded AAron I’d be in on affeldt and or Macdougal. But DEFINATELY one of my short relief spots goes to Humber.
i would not even call jim bowden.
I’d also look at Dotel.
Also, check back to 2006 and see that Looper was already on the Cardinals. Perhaps you meant 2005, but also check back to that year and see Heilman, Roberto Hernandez, and Padilla all had fantastic seasons out of the bullpen that year, so perhaps you’d like to revise your stance.
You are right about not trading Wagner, though. I came out with that request, as well, after the collapse was complete, but looking at how the closer’s landscape has suddenly shrunk (Rivera gone, Cordero gone, Lidge traded, options on Izzy and Nathan picked up), trading Wagner would just leave us with another hole to fill and nothing available to fill it with. Plus, his no trade clause makes it kind of hard to deal him anyway.
But as pointed out many times before, it may not necesarily be the arms in the bullpen, but how Willie chooses to use them, as the key to having a successful relief corps. Not overusing your best arms and letting starters go deeper into games are the biggest issues to keep an eye on as 2008 unfolds.
Wags, Feliciano, Showenweis are guaranteed. 4 more to go…
1-sosa-showed he can be very effected both situational and multi-innings, resign him
2-Sanchez-SHOULD be fully recovered, if not, plan ahead and find a replacement
3-AAA spot-with smith seeing the bulk of work, pelfrey or humber can also fill in here as well. Brugos, muniz, collazo, + padilla could see time being brought in/out AAA as needed when one begins to wear.
4-FA signing[affeldt, riske, herges, hawkins]
That makes 7
wags closes, feliciano/sanchez for 7/8th inning, sosa, show, AAA for short relief, 6th, and blowouts.
Looks like we only need 1, 2 if we dont keep sosa, who i like out of the pen.
humber and Pelfrey shouldnt be overlooked, and it would be good for their development if they are still on the team.
Pelfs power, an only facing a lineup once, will help him. Humber’s curve will be a varience to the BP we dont have.
But it would be nice to add atleast 1 SP to take the pressure off. We have to have atleast 2 guys in AAA just in case pedro or duque see DL time[at the same time], and 1 option may be our #5 guy if we fail to trade or sign a SP. That would press the BP more. For every start that replacement makes, we are looking 4-5 IP max, and there could feasibly be a stretch where that is 3 out of 5. yikes!