April Foolin’ Or Are Mets For Real?
We’re nearly at the end of April, and the Mets are in second place in the NL East with a 14-11 record. Are they for real, or is this April foolin’?
There are two games left this April, so the team can finish 16-11, 15-12, or 14-13. Regardless, the Mets are guaranteed to finish with a winning record for the month.
Here is what the Mets did in the previous four Aprils:
April 2013: 10-15 (final record: 74-88)
April 2012: 13-10 (final record: 74-88)
April 2011: 11-16 (final record: 77-85)
April 2010: 14-9 (final record: 79-83)
Hmm … Every team wants to get off to a fast start, but can we trust what happens in April? Doesn’t seem like it, does it?
Of course, it’s MUCH better to start off the season with a winning month than a losing month.
Some good points to consider …
The Mets have a winning record thus far, despite:
- having the worst batting average in the NL
- Curtis Granderson being in the worst slump of his career
- being without Chris Young for most of the month
- losing Bobby Parnell on Opening Day, and working with a “closer by committee”
- operating with a leadoff hitter with a .216 AVG / .320 OBP
… among other issues.
The assumption is that the Mets as a team will hit higher than .218 going forward, that Curtis Granderson will eventually reach and pass the Mendoza Line, and Chris Young will give the Mets the .235 / 20 HR / 70 RBI production they expect. So, if everything else stays the same, and at the very least, Young and Granderson provide some pop, there’s hope that the Mets will continue their winning ways.
However, we don’t know if:
- Eric Young, Jr., will get on base any more often than 32% of the time
- Ruben Tejada will take a step forward, or continue moving backward
- Anyone will step up and take over the closer role
- All 5 Mets starters will stay healthy and continue to provide 6-8 innings nearly every time out
We also don’t know how other teams will perform going forward. Were the Mets lucky to catch a few teams at just the right time in the past few weeks, for one reason or another?
I’m not going to get into the potential promotions of Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, etc., nor will I consider what possible acquisitions the Mets may make in the future — it’s too presumptuous. Looking at the team exactly as it is currently constituted, what do you think? Is this team for real? Can they keep winning more than they lose? Is there any chance of reaching their 90-win goal? (They’d need to go 76-61 the rest of the way to do so.)
Post your thoughts in the comments.
About the Author
Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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I basically agree with Meticated, likely unsustainable unless the results, especially on offense, improve. That said, the beauty of baseball is that while statistics and individual performances many times predict outcomes, there are deviations that keep it onteresting. The Orioles of 2012 made the playoffs despite being projected as a second division team. The won an incredible amount of one run games, which defied reason. This is why every season counts. Unfortunately, many take extreme positions, seeing a team as all in “win now” mode or “all out” strip it down and build for the future. There is an in between, where the management takes reasonable measures to give the team every opportunity to win with its current talent level. So far, into the 4th season, the Alderson regime has not done that. Adding a legit SS and a legit closer to this roster, two moves that would not require compromising the future financially or personnel-wise, would give this group a legit shot at competing through the end of the season, and leave it well positioned for more success in 2015. Sorry for sounding like a broken record.
In Runs Allowed Per Game, they rank 11th, which sounds about right.
And, for this year, .500 is victory. Just like it was in 1984…
STAT OF THE DAY: This franchise has not developed a truly valuable position player since 03 (Reyes/Wright)…..which speaks VOLUMES about the direction they have headed this past decade.
Being 10-15 would have created plenty of funny comments from Izzy, but it’s been nice to the Metsies win more than lose. Even if some of it has seemed a little lucky.
Instead of a slow rise, there’ll probably be a slow decline. But, hey, we can never know until the season’s over. And if the team could sign a damn SS….
The Mets have had good first halves in recent years and then totally dropped off in the second. Last year, the Mets held it together into August. That was an improvement.
Four years are cited in the column. Two were subpar. Two comparable to the current month. One factor here is the future. That is part of what ‘for real’ would mean to me. “For real” is not ’90 wins.” That is not real. For real is a flawed team that has some good things going for it and plays winning baseball. Not quite there, but not far away with a promising future.
Before ’13, I predicted a mid-70s record while some thought it would be in the ’60s. Before ’14, as I recall, I said it would be around 80/82 wins, with a margin of error of a few games. The start suggests that can be “for real,” especially since I also note the various problems cited, Wright struggling some not even included.
I don’t think all of those things will continue (and Chris Young already is showing something), plus I think certain improvements / new blood to put a spark to deal with others wearing down will help balance things out.
To be continued.
Has anything happened in April to change that assessment? Has anyone on the Mets roster indicated to us that they’ll be much better or worse than expected?
Here’s what I’ve seen:
- Granderson looks worse than expected.
- Tejada looks worse than expected.
- Bobby Parnell won’t contribute as expected.
- Mejia looks better than expected.
If I’m right, and the signs these players have shown really do indicate trends that will continue, then that leaves the Mets as about a 72-win team.
There are plenty of other players on the team who had good Aprils or bad Aprils, but I haven’t seen anything outside the range of “he’s hot” or “he’s cold” for what was expected of them. Wright’s SLG will rise, but so will Niese’s ERA.
72 wins in 162 games is a .444 W%, which would net 61 wins the rest of the way if the Mets play like the team I think they are. Add to the 14 they’ve already won, and you get a 75-win season. So that’d be my current guess.
Has anything happened in April to change that assessment? Has anyone on the Mets roster indicated to us that they’ll be much better or worse than expected?
Here’s what I’ve seen:
- Granderson looks worse than expected.
- Tejada looks worse than expected.
- Bobby Parnell won’t contribute as expected.
- Mejia looks better than expected.
If I’m right, and the signs these players have shown really do indicate trends that will continue, then that leaves the Mets as about a 72-win team.
There are plenty of other players on the team who had good Aprils or bad Aprils, but I haven’t seen anything outside the range of “he’s hot” or “he’s cold” for what was expected of them. Wright’s SLG will rise, but so will Niese’s ERA.
72 wins in 162 games is a .444 W%, which would net 61 wins the rest of the way if the Mets play like the team I think they are. Add to the 14 they’ve already won, and you get a 75-win season. So that’d be my current guess.
How long will it be until 2015 is the extended preseason for 2016?
The talent we’re graduating from the minors is merely keeping up with the competition who’s doing the same. I’m still waiting to hear a plan for where runs are going to come from next year.
Hey, you gotta look on the bright side. He’s improved!
Also, Argon, you’re ignoring how much better the outfield defense is. No Duda. Everyone can actually move.
I know defense is of little interest to people, but outside of Murphy and (on bad days) Tejada it’s a nice little team on defense.
I’m not saying the team is great and I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs. But I don’t think they’re as bad as people think. Added to that, I think standards overall are down across the NL.
The forecasts predicting 74 wins are assuming the Mets will improve over 2013 in some areas, but decline in others (such as the Matt Harvey department). I’m inclined to agree.
FWIW, most projections are not very high on Niese, Gee, or the bullpen, so perhaps there’s potential to surprise on those fronts. Gee’s current .202 BABIP is certainly not sustainable, though (career: .278). And there’s also potential for the bullpen to be awful. We’ll see…
Colon will (in all probability) get more wins that Murphy despite his eventual 3.50+ ERA. That’s despite Harvey being a far better pitcher. Harvey was ridiculously unlucky last year and the Mets only won 50% of his starts. Colon will get a couple more wins.
You’re also understating the difference between this year’s outfield and last year’s outfield. You’re comparing these outfielders general performance (and ignoring that Legares should improve to around 680-700 OPS with stellar defense in 140 games) instead of comparing it to last season’s Mets’ OF. Statistically the best outfielders – Legares and Byrd – started 115 games last year. The other OF position was a void.
Stats can be turned in a hundred ways. And if you’re betting on the Mets it’s always best to bet on losing.
But it’s also fun to turn the stats into a possibility of something good happening. Why? Well, I like watching the Mets play and like watching them win.
I’m still saying 81 wins. And if I don’t… well, I still had my (little) hope and had fun watching ‘em.
You’re right, it can be fun to turn the stats into a possibility of something good happening. • Montero’s minor league K/BB rate and d’Arnaud’s minor league OPS are both great signs. • Germen and Torres have also put up some good K/BB numbers since moving to relief. • David Wright has been awesome for the last 2 years despite the league’s offensive decline. • Duda has generally hit better when playing 1B. • Tejada held his own in MLB at age 20-21, a feat usually reserved for players who become great. • In his last two healthy years, Granderson averaged 37 HRs even if you factor out Yankee Stadium. • Last year Dillon Gee had the league’s 5th best ERA from June on. • Lagares raked this winter. • Somewhere in Zack Wheeler’s arm is the ability to throw that rarest of pitches, the 98mph sinker. • Jon Niese’s bad numbers from past years can be attributed to bad BABIP luck and injuries that are now behind him. Pow!
The Mets fanbase, unsurprisingly, attracts a lot of masochists. And people just love to grumble on the internet.
As for the logo, I’m an editor at Murder Sim Press and part of our output is crime books. The gun is an intentionally unrealistic one from one of our books.
As for the Nats, I just saw the news that Harper should be out till July, so perhaps injuries will wind up holding them short of their 90+ win expectations. They’re still better than the Mets in every way, though, aren’t they (rotation, bullpen, hitting, defense)?
It’s clear from the Drew situation that the Mets won’t be spending money to bolster the roster, so the question is whether Montero and deGrom can dramatically help the team. Maybe! I’d expect their 2014 impact to be small, but you never know.
You have to keep in mind that the Mets don’t have to be better in every way over their opponent; they just have to pitch better and be luckier. If luck swings their way in 2014, I’d expect better results. I also think it depends on how Lagares does upon his return (you left him out of your analysis in your earlier post).
As for the Braves, they did just fine without two key players in April. That doesn’t signify anything just yet.
I didn’t intend to imply that superiority in all ways is required; I was just pointing out the talent gap between the Mets and Nats. If the Mets’ rotation does somehow manage to outpitch a team with Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez and Fister, you can bet it won’t be by a large enough margin to make up for the bullpen and lineup gaps. Re: luck, anything is possible, but that works both ways — the Nats could win 100, the Mets could lose 100.
Do you see a weakness in the Braves? I’m not seeing one. I do expect Harang to regress, but Minor’s coming back soon, so whatever.
As for Lagares, no, I didn’t mention him, because (a) he showed last year that he was capable of hot streaks at the plate, and this April looked identical to those, and (b) projections already expected his bat to improve from age 24 to 25. Juan improving a little is already part of that 74-win guess.
Yeah, I know, no one here expects them to get 84 wins either. Wouldn’t surprise me.
Good: Mets win more games! Let’s say 79 instead of 75.
Bad: 79 feels like a disappointment to some staff, players, media and fans.
Personally, I don’t care about 79 vs 75 wins; I care about playoffs vs otherwise. Given no playoff appearance, I have two thoughts on this:
1) I’d prefer to see the Mets establish realistic expectations and then provide a pleasant surprise by exceeding them. That’s the sort of plucky underdog it’s fun to root for.
Missing a goal, on the other hand, is consistent with the same failure, disappointment and underperformance that has characterized the Mets since 2007. I am so sick of that.
Of course I am free to set my own expectations, but staff, player, media and fan response is part of the experience of following the team.
2) If ownership and management acknowledge that they’re fielding vastly inferior talent, then the way forward is clear, and no one can hide from the need to add talent. All these rose-colored evaluations and projections, on the other hand, allow them to portray losing seasons as misfortune rather than mismanagement. I find that galling. If they’re going to be cheap and field a bad team, they should admit it and be held accountable.
I agree that the difference between 79 and 75 wins is immaterial. However, I don’t agree that it is playoffs or but. The Mets desperately need to compete this season to right up to the end. Whether they fall short in game 160 or a game 163 playoff loss to me is as immaterial as whether they win 79 or 75. While there are no “moral” victories, this is essential for several reasons – it changes the trajectory of the franchise and gives the fans a reason to spend going forward (more fan spending means more resources), it gives the players on the team confidence that they actually can hang with the big boys, it gives potential additions for 2015 reason to think the team is more than a career graveyard with a paycheck, and it gives management the ability to evaluate players in, what did someone call it, “meaningful September games”, which is a big difference from evaluating players in meaningless September games. The money it will take to add 2014 resources that can enhance this possibility is peanuts compared to the potential benefits.
The ’69 club was expected to finish in the lower half of the division. It was the leadership of the players – Seaver, Koosman, Agee, Jones – who began discussing what it would take to become a good team. Gil Hodges was no slouch, either, but it was the players who changed the attitude that year. Let Alderson aim high. The team may yet surprise you.
I agree that there’s not much point in putting 82 wins in front of the team. Personally, I wouldn’t put any number of wins in front of the 2014 Mets. As you said, the choice there is between “unrealistic” and “resignation”. Instead, I’d form a path for getting the team to the playoffs in whatever time frame was realistic, figure out what the current roster needed to achieve in service to that plan, and set those goals. The guys you plan to trade should be challenged to excel in ways that make them attractive trade bait. The guys you plan to stick with long term should be challenged to work on foundational skills over immediate results. The systems you plan to institute should be drilled and enforced, whether it’s pitch calling or bunt plays or communication on defense. Etc.
The team goal of winning as many games as possible can stay unstated — it’s already covered by the competitive nature that athletes will bring to the field every night.
But I’d echo that I understand where Argon is coming from.
The Mets at their 100/100 runs scored/conceded are the classic divisive team. But I genuinally enjoy watching them play.
I love Eric Young Jr, for instance, even though he isn’t very good. But there is an enthusiasm to the team which is… well… fun.
First, pitching. Yes the Mets pitching has been better than expected, so yes it would be normal for them to regresa, either because of injuries or performance. But, they have prospects on the wings. They can come and start (replace injuries or upgrade performance), fill bullen roles (allá St Louis) or swap trades. From what We’ve read about the prospects, these next few months, in the very least, sounds interesting!
Second, final récord. More important than the récord, is the attendance. For attendance to finísh strong they must compete. If attendance finíshes strong, than whatever offseason adquisición they make Will have a larger impact.
In my opinión, they didn’t go after Reyes because they knew attendance was going down and they didn’t have the means to turn performance around
If they continúe to play as in april come june/july then yes, expect change at SS.
1b pkatoon, 2b can hit, 3b above average, C prospect potential with decent Sub. At least it sounds good on papel!
d’Arnaud is providing offense. His last 44 at bats produced a.295/.397/.432 slash. And I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect him to do well, other than injury concerns.
As much as it disdains me to agree with you, I have to until proven otherwise. While money doesn’t cure all ills, including lack of talent on a ballclub, until the spend to fill ALL the holes on the team, these 2014 games are exhibitions for the 2015 season, and ticket prices at Citifield should reflect that (Stubhub certainly does).
The Wilpons have been able to secure refinancing of loans quite easily, so the situation is more a choice of how much loss they tolerate. I think everyone agrees that a strong farm system is necessary for sustained winning, but not all agree on how to go about building a winning team. I am with Joe J. in that teams can rebuild and compete at the same time, at least good ones. Last week I heard on a broadcast that the Cardinals have lost 90 in a season only 4 times in the past 100 years. Additionally, of those 100 seasons, 72 seasons have produced a record of .500 or better, and the longest dry spell of losing seasons in a row has been 3, from 1918-20, and again from 1954-56. It strikes me that these guys never “throw away” a season in the name of building for the future.
You had to go and bring up the name, you know, JW (I can’t type the whole thing out), prove your point, and depress me once again. Yes, that is the elephant in the room, to which there is no solution. Bernie is in the big house, and despised by many, but he tried his best to solve that problem. Met fans should at least give him some credit for that. I think I’ll just go sit in the lotus position and repeat 14 and 11, 14 and 11, as long as I can,
Lets Go mets!
They need to start hitting with authority and average consistently, otherwise the pitching will break down trying to win with less than 3 runs or less per game.
Showing solidarity and teamwork is great, butr only goes so far.