We’re nearly at the end of April, and the Mets are in second place in the NL East with a 14-11 record. Are they for real, or is this April foolin’?
There are two games left this April, so the team can finish 16-11, 15-12, or 14-13. Regardless, the Mets are guaranteed to finish with a winning record for the month.
Here is what the Mets did in the previous four Aprils:
April 2013: 10-15 (final record: 74-88)
April 2012: 13-10 (final record: 74-88)
April 2011: 11-16 (final record: 77-85)
April 2010: 14-9 (final record: 79-83)
Hmm … Every team wants to get off to a fast start, but can we trust what happens in April? Doesn’t seem like it, does it?
Of course, it’s MUCH better to start off the season with a winning month than a losing month.
Some good points to consider …
The Mets have a winning record thus far, despite:
- having the worst batting average in the NL
- Curtis Granderson being in the worst slump of his career
- being without Chris Young for most of the month
- losing Bobby Parnell on Opening Day, and working with a “closer by committee”
- operating with a leadoff hitter with a .216 AVG / .320 OBP
… among other issues.
The assumption is that the Mets as a team will hit higher than .218 going forward, that Curtis Granderson will eventually reach and pass the Mendoza Line, and Chris Young will give the Mets the .235 / 20 HR / 70 RBI production they expect. So, if everything else stays the same, and at the very least, Young and Granderson provide some pop, there’s hope that the Mets will continue their winning ways.
However, we don’t know if:
- Eric Young, Jr., will get on base any more often than 32% of the time
- Ruben Tejada will take a step forward, or continue moving backward
- Anyone will step up and take over the closer role
- All 5 Mets starters will stay healthy and continue to provide 6-8 innings nearly every time out
We also don’t know how other teams will perform going forward. Were the Mets lucky to catch a few teams at just the right time in the past few weeks, for one reason or another?
I’m not going to get into the potential promotions of Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, etc., nor will I consider what possible acquisitions the Mets may make in the future — it’s too presumptuous. Looking at the team exactly as it is currently constituted, what do you think? Is this team for real? Can they keep winning more than they lose? Is there any chance of reaching their 90-win goal? (They’d need to go 76-61 the rest of the way to do so.)
Post your thoughts in the comments.
About the Author
Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.