Market Update

In the last week …

Matt Herges signed a one-year deal with the Rockies. Fine with me; he wouldn’t have been much more valuable than Aaron Sele, in my mind.

Troy Percival signed a two-year, $8M deal with the Tampa Bay (not Devil) Rays. He would have been a nice guy to have set up, but there was no public buzz about him coming to Shea.

Bobby Brownlie was invited to spring training by the Nationals. No big deal, other than I mentioned him as an ST invite possibility a few weeks ago. My interest in him was mostly tied to the fact he was a “local” kid, from Rutgers.

David Riske
appears to be on the verge of signing with the Brewers. He was a favorite of mine and other visitors of MetsToday, and he may soon be off the market. The options are dwindling quickly. Octavio Dotel suddenly looks to be one of the top options for the ‘pen.

Lance Cormier
was DFA’d by the Braves. He’s only 27, might be worth an ST invite.

Chris Shelton and Timo Perez were DFA’s by the Tigers. No thanks on Timo returning. Shelton, however, is intriguing. He can play 1B, some OF, catch, and bats from the right side. He hasn’t done a thing since a smoking hot April of 2006. He might fit in nicely as a backup to Delgado and RH pinch-hitter. ST invite?

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
  1. fafhrd316 December 3, 2007 at 3:13 pm
    Shawn Chacon is also available, and rumors have the Mets looking at Dotel and Chacon as potential additions. Keep in mind, they’ll also have Padilla and Duaner returning probably at Spring Training. And if they get 2 starting pitchers, they’ll probably move El Duque to the pen.
  2. isuzudude December 4, 2007 at 10:05 am is reporting that metsblog is citing sweeney murti on the FAN as saying the Mets are “close” in acquiring Bedard from Baltimore. I’m not exactly sure how credible Murti is, considering he’s the Yankees beat reporter for the FAN and probably couldn’t tell you anyone past Pelfrey, Humber, and Gomez in the Mets farm system, but let’s have some fun with this.

    How much should the Mets give up to get Bedard, and how desperate should they be to get him? Well, I view it this way. As is, the Mets rotation is Pedro, Perez, Maine, Duque, and Pelfrey. Not mind-blowing, but not horrible. I think that should be good enough to again win 80-90 games. However, it’s a strong possibility either Silva or Livan will be added to replace Glavine’s innings, which bumps Pelfrey from the rotation and gives us probably 5-8 more wins. With that being the case, I don’t think overpaying for Bedard, or any “ace” for that matter, would be a wise decision. I know the hype surrounding Johan and Haren and Bedard is hard to resist, and many will be unhappy on opening day if the Mets don’t land a huge pitcher. But the truth is they don’t need to go that route. It’s not worth sacrificing every valuable piece of the farm to get one guy. Not even Johan.

    If the Mets were to obtain Bedard, I would hope they don’t go anything beyond a package of Church/Pelfrey or Humber/Mulvey or Guerra. I suddenly view Gomez as being as close to untradable as anyone, as with Milledge gone Gomez becomes the only OF prospect ready to contribute when Alou departs at the end of 2008. And I also think Gomez will be performing at a higher level than Church within the next year or two. Trading Church, in my mind, isn’t that big of a deal as he could easily be replaced by a handful of free agents who would put up very similar production in 2008 (Fukudome, Shawn Green, soon-to-be-available Nady to name a few). Pelfrey and Humber are one in the same at this point: slowly developing starters who project to be more suited for bullpen duty. With the state of our bullpen, though, I would like to retain one of them, as well as Heilman, who I also view as being pretty close to untradeable. Think about it: if Sanchez doesn’t come back healthy and Dotel signs elsewhere, who else replaces Aaron’s innings? I stick by my statement that the Mets will only realize how valuable he is to the team when he is pitching for somebody else and we’re looking to fill the void. Allow the Orioles to pick either Mulvey or Guerra, and who ever else in the farm system they want with the exception of F-Mart. And if Baltimore thinks that’s not good enough, then fine. Walk away. To sweeten a potential deal, Omar could also decide to take a player off the O’s with a heavy contract (Tejada, Bradford, Gibbons, Hernandez) and then turn those players around in another trade. But the bottom line is that it’s not worth killing every other aspect of our team to get a starter we don’t REALLY need. And don’t be caught up in the “buzz” to believe the O’s are desperate to send Bedard packing. Although arbitration eligible for the next two years, he’s more than good enough to hold on to and pay a little extra dough for in order to work out a deal they’re satisfied with. My gut tells me that, like the A’s with Dan Haren, unless Baltimore is completely blown away by a deal, Bedard will be pitching his home games at Camden Yards in 2008. Don’t get your hopes up.

  3. Micalpalyn December 4, 2007 at 12:24 pm
    – I dont know how you find the time to author such indepth analyses

    1. -The Package: I COMPLETELY agree. In fact I am enthralled by the soothsayers who think Beddard is more vakluable than Santana.
    The Mets have to offer; Deolis, Pelfrey, Humber, Aaron, Joe Smith, Gomez, Caleb Stewart, Mike Carp Carlos Muniz, ENDY, church, Estrada Ahern (exclude F-Mart).

    2.- Why are the O’s marketing Beddard: a. He wants out. b- The Orioles realise they cannot compete so they want players realistically they want 3-4 bodies who can play now plus Grade A players for 2-3 years from now.

    3. The Mets part: The locks for the rotation are Pedro, Maine and Ollie ( I am thinking 15 wins a piece for these). Add in Silva (I think) or Kuroka (?).
    – after the last 2 yrs I think the Mets CANNOT count on El Duque. He might be an ace for long stretches, but he reminds me of a worn pirelli tire that you can only patch so much. As such he (to me) he is the 6th starter. Think of the role as this; he initially is Sosa then if need be he steps into the rotation a(as Chan Ho). Also alternating him and Sosa in the long role (with some short duty) should keep them both fresh.

    4. Add Beddard for (see MLB rumors) Pelfrey, Aaron, Church plus another
    – Note isu, Pedro is a FA as is El duque. I think Omar can build the next rotation around a core of Beddard, Ollie & Maine. Remember there are still long & short term questions around Pedro’s health.

    5. I agree on Gomez. BUT maybe in 2 years F-mart passes Gomez. I thought Gomez might pass Millz this past yr (but for his wrist injury). Definately his superior defense (comparing to Millz) was encouraging, but in my view he made adjustments at the plate better than Millz. Millz was adept at going after the first pitch, but I saw Gomez go deeper into counts and fight off pitches.

    6. I agree on Aaron. But I think aaron can be replaced. Finding a quality starter in this market is obviously harder, unless you are willing to take risks on say Bartolo Colon, Jon Leiber or can wait for Freddy Garcia.

  4. joe December 4, 2007 at 1:00 pm
    isuzu, as unbelievable as this sounds — I’m in total agreement with you re: Bedard.

    Is Bedard a quality starter? Yes. Is he worth sending away prospects plus Heilman? No way, not in my mind.

    As you mentioned, Heilman is ultra-valuable to the Mets, and I agree that the rotation isn’t desperate to add Bedard. Personally, I think Maine and Perez are on a similar level, skill-wise, as Bedard, and I further believe that both are more durable than Bedard will be.

    I’m REALLY worried about Bedard’s health, particularly his elbow. I don’t like his mechanics and think he’s a breakdown / injury waiting to happen. Of course, I felt similarly about Steve Carlton, and he almost never hit the DL (he did, however, subscribe to an unbelievable conditioning regimen).

    Maybe Aaron can be replaced, but 1) I don’t want to take the chance and 2) if there’s another pitcher like Heilman, the Mets need to ADD him to Heilman, not REPLACE him.

  5. fafhrd316 December 4, 2007 at 4:25 pm
    Joe, you’re forgetting that the Mets will probably have a full year of Sosa in the pen, along with Padilla and Duaner coming back. I don’t want to see Heilman go, but I think he’s going to leave anyways once his contract’s up, for a starting job. Let’s also not forget that if Heilman’s included in a deal, the Mets could also end up with a reliever in it- like getting back Chad Bradford, for one.

    I’m also worried about Bedard’s health, but at the same time, I like what he brings to the table. He’s definitely consistent enough for 180-200 innings a year, at least. Keep in mind, he’d also be going from the hitter happy AL East ballpark to the confines of a pitcher-friendly NL ballpark. That’s going to help him, as well.

  6. isuzudude December 4, 2007 at 4:42 pm
    fafhrd: then the question becomes, if you think it’s wise to bring in Bedard, who do you trade to Baltimore for him? The O’s already rejected Gomez/Heilman/Humber, so what’s the next offer? I doubt replacing Gomez with Church gets anything done. Do you include Maine or Perez? F-Mart? Reyes??? Those seem to be the only guys I would imagine Baltimore being interested in that also gives them a boosted package from Gomez/Heilman/Humber. Dream and hope and demand all you want, a Bedard (or Haren or Johan) deal to the Mets is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. The sooner we all accept this, the lesser the sting will feel of *only* signing a Carlos Silva or Hiroki Kuroda.