National League Predictions

Posted on April 4, 2009 by Joe Janish

Everyone else is making predictions, so why not MetsToday? We’ll focus on the National League, since that remains the only professional league still playing baseball, and not some twisted variation of the sport.

Cy Young Award

Obvious Candidates: Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, , Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Carlos Zambrano.

Sleepers: Edinson Volquez, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Cook, Ricky Nolasco.

Prediction: Santana

If Santana remains healthy, he should pitch through the 7th inning at least 25 times this year. If his one-two finishing punch of J.J. Putz and Frankie Rodriguez also remains healthy, Johan could win 20 of those 25, if not more.

Should any of those three suffer a significant injury, my money is on Volquez.

MVP


Obvious candidates: Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran, David Wright.

Sleepers: Hanley Ramirez, Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth.

Prediction: This one’s too hard, you can’t really choose an MVP without knowing what teams are in the playoffs. I’m going to go on a limb and give it to Votto, who is poised for a breakout year.

Rookie of the Year


Candidates: Jason Motte, Colby Rasmus, Jordan Schafer, Jordan Zimmerman

Prediction: My research on the rookies is awful. I’m going to go with Motte, who could save 25+ games for the Cardinals. After Motte I like Schafer, who is slated to start in centerfield for the Braves.

Batting Title

Another tough one. I don’t see Chipper Jones hitting .364 again, though I wouldn’t be stunned to see Pujols hit .350 again. In fact, with Matt Holliday out of the league, this might be Pujols’ best chance for a triple crown. Someone’s going to come out of nowhere and surprise us all, and I say it’s going to be James Loney.

Saves Leader

Can Francisco Rodriguez save 60 games again? Doubtful — he may not get that many opportunities in the competitive NL East. I’m betting on a neck-and-neck race between Jose Valverde and the “other” Francisco — Cordero, of Cincinnati.

NL West Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers still have Manny, but they don’t have Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, nor Takashi Saito. After Chad Billingsley, the pitching staff looks questionable — even Jonathan Broxton looks like he might take a step back. I like the pitching of the Giants and the Diamondbacks, and think Arizona will have a little more offense and the better bullpen.

NL Central Champion: Chicago Cubs

On paper, the Cubs look to be the class of the NL, with great pitching depth and plenty of offense. However, they won’t run away with the division. I’m betting that the Reds have a surprising season, and that the Pirates climb out of the basement, while Houston and Milwaukee fight for last place.

NL East Champion: ?

This one’s too close to home. If I choose the Mets, I’m supposed to because this is a Mets blog. If I don’t choose the Mets, you wonder how I can’t since this is a Mets blog. So I’ll say this: the NL East is going to once again be a dogfight, and go down to the last weeks of the season. Further, neither the Marlins nor the Nationals will be pushovers in ’09, and the Braves won’t be left behind when it gets down to the wire. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if four games or less separates the Phillies, Mets, Braves, and Marlins when it’s all said and done. The Wild Card also will come from the East.

Agree or disagree with anything? Comment away!

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Final Tuneup vs. Red Sox

Posted on April 4, 2009 by Joe Janish

Oliver Perez

Ollie was an absolute disaster from pitch one. Dan Warthen and Jerry Manuel can bitch at him all they want about being in shape and earning his keep, but the bottom line is that there is a mechanical issue preventing him from throwing strikes. Ron Darling suggested that Ollie’s front shoulder was opening too early, but that’s a symptom, not a cause. The SNY camera angles stink if you want to analyze a pitcher’s mechanics, so I can’t figure out what’s going on — I just can see something’s not right. My best guess is that Ollie’s stride is too short (similar to John Maine’s issue earlier this spring). I think he’s landing too early and not giving his arm a chance to catch up, so his release point is too early, leaving the ball up and away to RH hitters. He threw 10 of his first 12 fastballs to that exact spot, yet no one — not Brian Schneider, not Warthen — made a trip to the mound until the bases were loaded. Too late, fellas!

Nelson Figueroa

Some of you have disagreed with me on Figgy vs. Parnell, but today’s outing by Ollie is exactly the reason I prefer a coolheaded veteran long man such as Nelson waiting in the bullpen. It makes all the more sense when you consider that neither Perez nor John Maine are physically ready to start the season, and each may have early exits among their first few starts.

John Maine

Maine looked OK in his tune-up, with sporadic command issues and velocity a little lower than we’d like to see. It may take him until May to get to 100%.

Danny Murphy

On the radio broadcast, Howie Rose compared Murphy to Edgardo Alfonzo, and Wayne Hagin compared him to Will Clark. So, let’s see … Wade Boggs, Fonzie, Clark, Don Mattingly … when is someone going to compare Murphy to Babe Ruth? How about we just let this kid be himself, whomever that is. It’s not fair to put all this pressure on a player who will most likely be a .275 -.285 hitter — which would be a disappointment if you’re expecting Will Clark numbers but is perfectly fine for his role in the Mets’ lineup in 2009.

Marlon Anderson

Marlon started the game in centerfield. Hmm … why? Was it because the plan is to make Marlon the backup centerfielder and late-inning defensive replacement, and Jeremy Reed will be sent down to make room for Gary Sheffield? There is no other explanation, because as long as Reed is on the roster, Anderson would never play center. If you want to experiment with a spot for Marlon to expand his versatility, put him at 2B, where he’s played nearly 700 big-league games but only twice in the last two years. I’d much rather see Marlon spell Castillo at 2B once in a while than centerfield, where he has no range, no arm, and no experience.

Final Word

Not the most inspiring tune-up, so we’ll glaze over it and keep Friday night’s contest fresh in our minds. The real games begin on Monday, in Cincinnati, against a Reds team I think will surprise some people. Buckle up, we have 162 games to go!

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Breaking News: Mets Sign Sheffield

Posted on April 3, 2009 by John Fitzgerald

According to SI.com, the Mets have signed Gary Sheffield. It is believed the contract will be for the league minimum $400,000 – the Tigers would presumably pay the rest of Sheffield’s contract:

Sheffield chose the Mets over the Phillies and Reds because he believes he’ll get more playing time with the Mets — although Mets people have said no promises have been made.

He’s expected to be mainly a right-handed pinch hitter off the bench and occasionally spell Ryan Church in right field. Mets people also hope the added competition might spur Church, who struggled in the second half last year.

Let’s see…

  • Aging Slugger… Check
  • Bad Attitude… Check
  • Right Handed Power Bat in the Outfield… Check

It looks like the only thing holding back the Mets from signing Manny Ramirez was a few million dollars.

Posted in Latest Mets News | 19 Comments

2009 Fantasy Projections: Third Base

Posted on April 2, 2009 by John Fitzgerald

Third base is the first position in the infield where the Mets clearly have the best player in the National League (for fantasy baseball purposes). I have nothing remotely witty to add to that, so let’s get to the rankings…

Third Base Rankings – National League

  1. David Wright (.315-35-140) – With Reyes stealing more bases this season, Wright will put up a career high in RBI. And if not, he’s still going to be the top producing 3B in the NL.
  2. Chipper Jones (.320-25-100) – If he is healthy all season, Jones will challenge Wright’s numbers, but I expect him to miss 20-40 games. Get him at a good value if you can – I’ve seen him drop in alot of drafts. If you get him, be sure to get a solid backup who can fill in when Jones punches out.
  3. Aramis Ramirez (.290-30-100) – This guy is nothing if not consistent. He is also severely overvalued and undervalued depending on the league and the draft. Target him at $20 and grab him lower if you can.
  4. Garrett Atkins (.280-20-100) – Declining numbers over the past three years are a red flag. A .260 road average last season is another red flag. A possible trade to free up the 3B position for Ian Stewart is another possible red flag… Let Atkins pass.
  5. Ryan Zimmerman (.290-20-90) – It’s hard to predict where Zimmerman’s numbers will go. He’s been hurt and hitting in the black hole that is the Nationals lineup. I expect the Nats to be slightly better offensively and if Zimmerman is healthy, he should get back on track. I rate him only slightly lower than Atkins because there he has less of a track record. But he is also only 24 years old, so keep that in mind if you’re in a keeper league.

Sleeper – Edwin Encarnacion (.260-30-100) – I like the Cincinnati lineup and Encarnacion has a ton of potential. He may never realize his full potential, but he should approach 30 HR and have a modest gain in BA. Grab him under $12 if you can.

Third Base Rankings – National League NL EAST

  1. David Wright – see above
  2. Chipper Jones – see above
  3. Ryan Zimmerman – see above
  4. Jorge Cantu – (.275-25-90) The Marlins have already sent down 1B Gaby Sanchez, which frees up 1B for Cantu (like I predicted here). Although he’s going to be playing 1B, Cantu also ranks as one of the top 3B candidates in the NL East, for fantasy purposes. Don’t expect an improvement on last year’s fantasy numbers, but grab him cheap and use his multi-position eligibility to your advantage.
  5. Pedro Feliz (.250-17-65) Feliz was a disappointment last season and it looks like he will remain in a quasi-platoon with Greg Dobbs this season. The one thing Feliz has going for him – besides his power – is his glove. If he gets enough ABs, he could reach 20 HR, but Feliz is a crapshoot unless he gets catcher eligibility. I don’t believe that has happened for a couple of years…

Sleeper Emilio Bonafacio (.230-0-35) – For reasons I don’t quite understand, Bonafacio is slated to be the Marlins third baseman on Opening Day. He probably won’t hit and he may not start for long, but Bonafacio can run. I’ve seen him nearly beat out routine grounders to shortstop… I have to assume he has the green light whenever he’s on base and I also have to assume that he’s going to run whenever he can just to stay in the lineup. I’ll go out on a limb and say Bonafacio steals 40-50 bases this season, regardless of playing time. The important thing is that he stays on the big league roster – and that’s not guaranteed.

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Mets 25-Man Roster Set

Posted on April 1, 2009 by Joe Janish

With Opening Day only four days away, the Mets’ 25-man roster is set. Few, if any, surprises dot the list, though at least one individual may have been slighted.

Here are your 2009 New York Mets:

Pitching Staff

Rotation:
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
* Livan Hernandez

Bullpen:

Francisco Rodriguez
Joseph Jason Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Bobby Parnell
Brian Stokes
Darren O’Day

Catchers

Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro

Infield

1B Carlos Delgado
2B Luis Castillo
3B David Wright
SS Jose Reyes
UTL Alex Cora

Outfield

Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Danny Murphy
Jeremy Reed
Fernando Tatis (UTL)
Marlon Anderson (1B / 2B)
* Nick Evans (1B)

(* – Livan Hernandez will join the roster on April 11th, presumably to replace Nick Evans)

Comments

There wasn’t any competition for the starting lineup positions, and four of the five rotation spots were earmarked, so much of the above is unsurprising. Livan Hernandez took hold of the fifth starter’s spot in the first week of spring training and never let go.

So the real mystery — if there was any — came in regard to the bullpen and the bench. Darren O’Day was a Rule 5 pick, and pitched well enough to earn a spot. I think he’ll be a sleeper coming out of the ‘pen. Brian Stokes was fairly effective in the spring, and was helped by the fact that most of the ST invites brought in to compete for bullpen spots were underwhelming at best. Stokes also is out of options, and likely would have been plucked by another team if waived. Similarly, Sean Green pitched well in March and was more or less a lock, as was Pedro Feliciano and the two closers. The only surprise is Bobby Parnell, who impressed by touching 97 MPH on the radar gun and posting a 2.19 ERA. I’m a little skeptical on carrying Parnell, due to the 9 walks he gave up in only 12 innings, and the long fly balls that resulted when his fastball veered chest high over the middle of the plate. Personally, I would’ve preferred to see Nelson Figueroa on the staff as a long man, especially after his excellent performance in the WBC. Apparently, facing some of the best hitters in the world in a playoff-like competition does not weigh as heavily as pitching against AA hitters in a spring training atmosphere. Go figure.

As for the bench, we knew that Alex Cora’s $2M contract guaranteed a spot, and Ramon Castro was similarly set. Marlon Anderson was also retained for financial reasons, though also out of respect, I surmise, because he didn’t hit very well. I’m OK with that, as I’m a huge fan of Marlon and believe he is a good clubhouse presence. But if he needs to hit to stick around — this situation is eerily similar to that of Julio Franco in 2007.

Tatis was a no-brainer for the bench after Dan Murphy was named the starting leftfielder. He’s an ideal guy to have around for his versatility and occasional pop. Reed was the best of the dozen or so light-hitting, defensive-minded, Endy Chavez replacements. I like Reed quite a bit and wonder why he’s not the one starting in LF, after hitting a blistering .418 with a .500 OBP in the spring. Talk all you want about Danny Murphy, but from what I saw, Jeremy Reed was the most impressive all-around outfield candidate in camp.

The Cuts

The demotion of Figueroa — and subsequent longer looks at schlubs such as Fernando Nieve and Elmer Dessens — was deplorable. What more did Figgy have to do this spring? If it weren’t such a wide open competition, it would be somewhat understandable. In 7 2/3 high-pressure innings, Figueroa gave up zero runs, struck out 6, and posted a 0.68 WHIP. The Mets are in need of a flexible guy in the bullpen — one who can handle both long and short duties — and Figgy fits the bill. Strange.

Tony Armas, Jr. was cut after pitching one scoreless inning. I thought for sure he would be assigned to AAA Buffalo; perhaps he eventually will.

Jose Valentin was also released, which was sad. If not for the guaranteed contract given to Cora, he might have had a chance. Like Armas, he may eventually be assigned to a minor league club — my guess is that the team will discuss with him a player-coach position in Buffalo, or a straight coaching job at a lower level.

Similarly, Andy Green was demoted quickly, despite invigorating an otherwise boring spring with heightened enthusiasm and hitting like crazy. He reminded me of Joe McEwing, during Superjoe’s heyday.

Freddy Garcia wasn’t in shape, and pitched poorly, but I believe and hope he builds himself up in the minors, as I have a funny feeling he’ll be needed at some point.

What happened to Eddie Kunz? Not a peep about him all spring.

Final Thoughts

No huge surprises, as the Mets’ roster was fairly set due to financial commitments. There is a concern that Pedro Feliciano is the only lefty coming out of the bullpen, but the LOOGYs brought in ranged from awful to ordinary, and it doesn’t make sense to carry a lefty for the sake of carrying a lefty.

On paper, the roster looks fairly solid up and down. Let the games begin.

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Citi Field: First Look

Posted on March 31, 2009 by Joe Janish

citi-sign.jpg

The good, the bad, and the ugly of Citi Field, brought to you in pictures. View the photos, read my remarks, and form your own opinion … or wait another two weeks and try to scalp a ticket so you can see the place for yourself.

Thanks to fellow blogger Andrew Vazzano of TheRopolitans, I was able to attend the very first baseball game ever played at Citi Field, between the St. John’s Red Storm and the Georgetown Hoyas.

While there, I took a bunch of pictures to give you an idea of what the new stadium is like. Unfortunately, the day was dreary, with gray skies and a constant mist, so all the photos came out similarly drab and colorless. Since there have been several photo and video “tours” on other blogs, I’ve tried to assemble more esoteric points of interest around the park.

What was most strange about this day was that it is likely the only time the stadium will look so sparse of spectators, despite being a sellout. All 42,000 seats were sold — within 45 minutes of going on sale on the internet — yet the majority of folks were walking around the inner guts of the stadium to check everything out rather than sitting in their seats.

All photos have been published as a series, and this is article number one. More than 20 photos and descriptions are included, to guide you through this virtual tour of Citi Field on a rainy Sunday afternoon. Click the links below this post to navigate through.

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Phillies Fan Booted From Citi Field!

Posted on March 31, 2009 by Joe Janish

Reed Frazier, the camera operator for St. John’s University’s Office of Athletic Communications, who happens to be a Phillies fan, was asked to leave Citi Field during Sunday’s game — because he was wearing a Phillies jacket.

… I, along with the Office of Athletic Communications, was to help in broadcasting the game online via St. John’s University’s sports website.

The weather was less than desirable; mist was coming down which created a cool dampness outside. We had been advised to wear St. John’s University polo shirts, provided for us, to the game as well as rain proof jackets. Because of this, I wore my Phillies jacket to the field.

… It was after the ceremonial first pitch (John Franco) and the national anthem that I was approached by another co-worker who insisted that I put on the jacket. He informed me that he is a Mets fan and he understands where I am coming from, but that I have to put on the jacket. I told him that in no way did it affect how I was to do my job, therefore I could not justify doing so. I said, “If I was wearing a Mets jacket, would this even be a problem?” He told me everyone had to wear the jackets. I pointed out that two of my fellow student workers were wearing their own jackets. I even offered to compromise by wearing the St. John’s University jacket beneath my Phillies jacket. He dismissed the idea and left.

I returned my attention to my camera. Moments later, the head of the department rumbled up the platform and stood beside me. I looked to my side.

He said, “You have to take off your jacket.”

I replied, “In no way does it affect the job I am doing. It is a nonissue.”

He responded by saying, “It is an issue with the Mets. You can either put on the jacket or leave.”

“Then, I’m leaving.”

I walked over to Paul, shook his hand and told him it was a pleasure to meet him. In doing this, the head of the department reaches from behind and yanks my press pass out of my free hand. I exited the platform and began to walk to the doors to leave. The head of the department followed me.

“Are you really going to do this?”

I replied, “Yes.” Then, I left the building.

If you read the entire article, you can get the gist that this fan was not looking to intentionally tick anyone off, but at the same time wasn’t about to be told what he should or shouldn’t be wearing. I can’t really blame him — especially considering that this was a college game, with no actual Mets players in sight.

There’s a possibility that people were just yanking his chain, and that no Mets official actually insisted that he take off the jacket. Indeed, I’m sure if this creates a storm (pardon the pun … St. John’s Red Storm, get it?), the Mets will say they never did such a thing and someone must have been playing a prank.

In any case the kid was pretty calm and collected about the entire ordeal.

Because I was not informed of the Mets organization’s disapproval of my attire firsthand, I can only speculate if there really was an issue with the Mets, or if it was St. John’s Athletic Department’s last ditch efforts in forcing me to remove my jacket. Every Mets staff member that I spoke with was very pleasant and accommodating. I appreciated their courteousness and lack of judgment.

The fact that I was removed from Citi Field for not removing my jacket is absurd to me. I was working at a NCAA baseball game, not even a Mets game. There should never have been an issue in such a setting. I highly doubt an event similar to this would occur at Citizen’s Bank Park at a Phillies, or a non-Phillies game.

I did not wear the jacket to incite people. By no means am I a confrontational individual. I am proud of my baseball team, just as the Mets fans are of theirs. I would have acted in the same way regardless of my attire. I stood my ground for what I believe in, and did so without anger or hostility.

Hat tip to John Fitzgerald for this story.

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RH Sluggers Available

Posted on March 31, 2009 by Joe Janish

We know the Mets are not going to add any position players to their roster, but there’s still a major, glaring void — a righthanded-hitting outfielder with home run power. This week, a two players filling that description became available. Let’s take a quick look at them and a few others.

The Sluggers

Gary Sheffield
In a shocking move, the Tigers ate $14M to rid themselves of the surly slugger. Sheffield’s character and clubhouse presence has often come into question, but was generally accepted when he was hitting 35+ homeruns a year. However, injuries and age have affected his performance in the past two years, and many think he’s done. Sheff has looked healthy thus far this year, and he claims his shoulder is fine. His numbers have been terrible this spring, but he’s never been much of a March hitter. His arm issues suggest his future is only as a DH, but who knows? His bat speed is still there, and I think his reputation as a “clubhouse cancer” is overblown. The guy can flat-out hit and is more of a team player than he’s given credit for. Watch the Phillies pick him up.

[UPDATE: about an hour and a half after I wrote that last sentence, an article appeared on Phillies.com reporting “Phillies Release Jenkins; eye Sheff?”]


Wily Mo Pena
Pena was placed on waivers by the Nationals on Saturday; any claiming team would assume his $2M contract (which is $200K less than Tim Redding’s). No one is going to claim him, and when he clears, he’ll have the option to report to AAA or become a free agent. If he chooses the latter, why not take a chance? The cost is the MLB minimum salary, and he just turned 27 — the age many hitters begin to mature. Yes, three organizations have given up on him in the past three years, but that had more to do with him being out of options rather than a lack of talent. The guy does a lot of swinging and missing, but he can also mash. The Mets do not have ANY RH hitter in their organization with his raw power.

Other Available Free Agents

Jimmy Gobble
The LOOGY is back out on the market after being released for the second time this spring. He had a terrible season last year — an ERA near 9.00 — but did hold LH hitters to a .200 batting average and a .257 OBP. Plus, he’s never pitched in the National League, which gives him another slight advantage. I like his upside better than Ken Takahashi’s.

Mike Stanton
Another available LOOGY. No thanks.

Paul Bako
A solid “catch and throw” backup catcher, meaning, he can’t hit. Pass.

Marcus Giles
If Luis Castillo didn’t look so good this spring, Giles might have been worth taking a look at. Pass.


Morgan Ensberg
I like Ensberg a lot, love the way he approaches the game, he’s a righthanded hitter who can play multiple positions and once blasted 36 homeruns. However, his offensive production dropped significantly after turning 30 (and after MLB started testing and suspending for PEDs). Pass.

Tyler Walker
He appeared in 56 games for the Giants last year and posted a 4.56 ERA. Pass.

Mike Maroth
He’s a lefty, he’s had past success, and he was lights out against the Mets on one fine June evening two years ago, but he hasn’t been the same since early 2006, thanks to an array of injuries to his arms and legs. Even when he was healthy, he wasn’t especially effective against LH hitters, so he doesn’t figure to have a future as a LOOGY — much less a starter. It may be the end of the road for Maroth, which is too bad, as he was a fun guy to root for. Pass.

Posted in Latest Mets News | 6 Comments