Mets – Reds Preview

Posted on July 17, 2008 by Joe Janish

Can the Mets make it ten?

The Mets won 9 straight games, turning themselves into a juggernaut that could only be stopped by the All-Star break. Let’s hope they can regain their momentum tonight as they open a 4-game series in Cincinnati.

Game One: Johan Santana vs. Johnny Cueto

Johan’s less-than-stellar record hides his sparkling ERA. We keep hearing how he is a “second half pitcher”. Well, it’s now officially the second half, so start kicking some butt, Mr. Santana!

Cueto got rocked by the Mets back in May, lasting only 4 2/3 and allowing 6 runs on 8 hits. He might have been spooked by the big stage in NYC, and could be more comfortable in Cincinnati. He’s been up and down, sometimes spectacular, sometimes awful — a lot like Mike Pelfrey was until recently.

Game Two: John Maine vs. Bronson Arroyo

Last year John Maine was on a hot streak going into the ASB, then faltered. This year, he faltered going into the break, so let’s hope the time off is a positive, rather than a negative, this time around. I’d like to see Dan Warthen fix Maine’s mechanics, which to me appear to be a bit off.

Arroyo keeps coming up in trade rumors, and I’m not sure why. Yes, he lit the world on fire in his first half-season in Cincinnati in 2006, but hasn’t been anything special since. Like in the “other” league, once the NL hitters got used to Arroyo, he became over-exposed and isn’t much more than a .500 pitcher. His ERA is currently a hair under 6.

Game Three: Oliver Perez vs. Josh Fogg

My my … Josh Fogg is still drawing a big league paycheck? Wonders never cease. He carries a 7.94 ERA into the game, high enough to keep Adam Eaton looking effective.

Oliver Perez has been nasty — in a good way — over his last three starts. My biggest concern is, will he take the Reds lightly and pitch down to the competition? This may turn out to be the key game of the series.

Game Four: Pedro Martinez vs Edinson Volquez

Volquez is currently the best Reds pitcher, though I’m not sure I’d trade Josh Hamilton for him. Had he not allowed a two-run homer to J.D. Drew, perhaps Billy Wagner’s performance wouldn’t have been so glaring. In any case, Volquez pitched 7 innings and struck out 10 in his last “real” game, and sports a 12-3 record and 2.29 ERA. Not too shabby.

Will Pedro really make the start? We think so, but no one knows for sure. Last time out, it was a tight shoulder that was due to a tight groin. His hamstring appears to be OK, and we think the toe is completely healed. What else can he injure? Just ask Orlando Hernandez … who for all we know could be replacing Pedro in the rotation sooner rather than later.

Bottom Line

This four-game jaunt is a warmup for Philadelphia; I don’t expect the Mets to get to 13 in a row, and will be very happy with a split. That may sound pessimistic, but there are some things concerning me:

1. Cueto is capable of pitching lights-out, and shutting down the Mets’ Alouless and Churchless offense.

2. John Maine’s last three starts have been troubling.

3. Can Ollie keep it up?

You’d think nine straight wins would fill me with confidence, but I still have “guarded optimism”. If the Mets can take two, there’s a good chance they go into Philly in the same position they’re in right now: second place, a half game back. I’m fine with that.

Posted in Series Previews | 6 Comments

Hear Me On NY Baseball Digest

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Joe Janish

My goal to replace Mike and the Mad Dog with someone who follows the Mets (and can correctly pronounce “Duaner Sanchez” … it’s NOT DWAY-nar, Mr. Francesa) continues with a guest appearance on Mike Silva’s NY Baseball Digest. You can hear me spew about the Mets’ chances in the second half by clicking here. FYI you can download the show and listen to it on your PC or MP3 player anytime. It’s the future of rock ‘n roll … and, er, sports talk radio.

OK, I may be a long way from taking over the afternoon hours on WFAN, but you have to start somewhere.

Also, good news: the upgrades to the MetsToday website are finally complete, so it’s clear sailing from here through the end of the season. Thanks for your patience and dealing with the lack of posts over the last few days. Also hat tip to “sincekindergarten” for helping to identify some issues that required immediate attention (and also for getting me hooked on Blue Moon).

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | Comments Off on Hear Me On NY Baseball Digest

Second-Half Glass

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Joe Janish

glass_half.jpgWill the Mets continue their roll and start out the second half with a bang? Or will the momentum be broken and they return to their .500 ways?

There are two ways to look at the last 95 games, and the next 67: with the glass half-full, or half-empty.

Let’s look at the second half from both perspectives.

Half Full

– Johan Santana has a sparkling ERA, and is famous for strong second halves. Oliver Perez has found himself and Mike Pelfrey has turned the corner; both look like aces. John Maine is bound to pitch better and Pedro Martinez is the #5. The Mets have the best starting rotation in MLB, and those horses will carry them to the postseason.

– In contrast, the awful starting rotation of the Phillies has finally caused that team to falter. With no help in sight, the Phils will continue to sink in the standings.

– Backing up the Mets’ spectacular starting rotation is a bona fide bullpen. Now that Aaron Heilman has been “fixed”, all of the Mets relievers are pitching well. Good pitching beats good hitting.

– Carlos Delgado is back. With his dangerous bat, the Mets lineup is suddenly fearsome, especially once Ryan Church returns.

– Jose Reyes and David Wright have been on fire for the last month and a half. Both are poised to make MVP runs in the second half — with a warming Carlos Beltran ready to contend as well.

Half Empty

– What is up with Maine? Can Pedro stay healthy? How long before Perez is replaced by Mr. Hyde? Can Pelfrey keep it up? Under the surface, this starting staff is more questionable than people think.

– The Phillies’ pitching was even worse last year, and they won the division.

– Will the Mets bullpen be worn out by late August, and thus repeat the breakdown of last season? How many more saves is Billy Wagner going to blow? And do the Mets really have a setup man?

– Is Delgado really back, or really lucky? Many of his hits have come off awful pitchers, and in laugher games. His bat speed is still slow, so he may just be guessing right lately. And Church’s return could be more a matter of “if” rather than “when”.

– Reyes had a similarly strong first half last year, then messed the bed in the last two months of the season, when the Mets needed him most. We can probably count on Wright to continue his pace, but his MVP-like performance last year wasn’t enough to carry the team. Can Beltran be a cleanup hitter with a .260 average?

How do YOU see the glass? Comment below.

Posted in Shea What? | 2 Comments

Alou Out – Now What?

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Joe Janish

So the news before the All-Star Break was that Moises Alou was finished for the year, having torn his hamstring in a rehab game the night before.

There had been suggestions that Alou did not need to rush back, that the Mets would be fine with Alou returning some time after the All-Star break, but apparently Alou was allowed to begin his comeback prematurely. There goes $7.5M, down the drain!

Alou appeared in a total of 15 games … a few short of the 90 or 100 many of us had hoped for. Hmm … that comes to half a million dollars per game. Nice job, Moises — that’s a better rate than Alex Rodriguez!

Enough of the jokes. Personally, I’m crushed about this news. Yes, I know it was silly to believe Moises could have given the Mets anything this year, but when the guy is on the field, he’s one of the five or six players in MLB I absolutely love to watch. The way he carries himself, plays the game all-out, with outstanding instincts and intelligence, plus his innate ability to drive in runs, makes him a pleasure to watch. I suppose all those verbs should have been presented in the past tense.

Anyway, now what will the Mets do without him? Until now, Omar Minaya had been under the assumption that the parade of leftfielders were stopgaps, keeping the position warm until Moises healed (we knew better). Now, there is no question — the Mets need a strong-hitting outfielder. The issue is exacerbated by the questionable condition of Ryan Church. The Mets’ 2008 offense — and their ultimate success — was planned around the idea that Alou would play 100-120 games (however irresponsible that was, it WAS the plan). Alou’s absence was somewhat alleviated by Church’s rise to stardom. But now, without either hitter, the Mets need to find someone.

Yes, the Mets have been winning without Alou AND Church lately. That doesn’t mean they can keep it going over the long haul. I would really like to believe that Fernando Tatis is having a renaissance season — much like Jose Valentin’s 2006, as one MetsToday reader recently suggested — but the Mets can’t count on him staying this hot. Even if they could, that only accounts for one corner outfield spot — one that would be handled by a very shaky and inexperienced defender.

Let’s take a look at the Mets options for left and right fields, both in-house and outside the organization.

A combination of Fernando Tatis, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, and Nick Evans / Chris Aguila

The righthanded hitters — Tatis and Evans — both started shagging fly balls a few months ago, so the outfield defense will take a hit when the opposing team puts a lefty on the mound. Anderson might be worse defender than both of them, and is still slumping as he struggles to stay near the Mendoza Line. Chavez brings a great glove to the table and has been a hot hitter of late — however, he also tends to be a streaky hitter, and is bound to hit a cold streak with regular duty. The jury is still out on Aguila. It’s not an impossibility to believe this ramshackle group can somehow pull off near-average production compared to other NL corner outfielders, though my guess is the power numbers will be lower than the mean for both positions. Still, the Mets could get by IF Brian Schneider hits better than expected, Damion Easley remains hot, and Carlos Delgado continues on the road back to respectability. However, those are all big ifs.

Trot Nixon

The forgotten Nixon is waiting around on the DL, and could be activated as early as Sunday. He could find time in the above menagerie while the Mets wait for Church to return, though eventually the team would have to decide between him and Marlon Anderson. Trot will never hit for the power he did a few years ago, but is still a solid defender and a good on-base guy who plays inspirational, all-out ball. If he gets another shot on the 25-man roster, he’ll have to hit to stick. Who knows, maybe he can.

Fernando Martinez

Omar Minaya did not hesitate to promote Carlos Gomez last season, despite his rawness. Gomez was clearly overmatched at the plate, but held his own in the field, made the most of his best weapon (speed), and provided a jolt of energy and spunk to an otherwise languishing lineup. Can F-Mart be a similar inspiration? Somehow I doubt it. Where Gomez already had at least three of the five MLB-ready tools (arm, fielding, and speed), Martinez doesn’t have any. One day, F-Mart will be a power hitter in the mold of Juan Gonzalez (we’re told). Otherwise, his fielding and arm are projected to be average, his running speed average to above-average, and his ability to hit for average will be, well, average. His most impactful tool will be his power, and unfortunately it hasn’t yet arrived (yes, he can hit balls out in BP, but he has only 4 HRs in 221 ABs — a rate similar to that of Luis Castillo). He’s probably running faster now than he ever will, but he’s no speed demon — it’s not like he can make up for his inability to make contact by dragging bunts, as Gomez did last year. At age 19, he’s an exciting bundle of talent, but nowhere near ready to contribute in the bigs yet. All that said, he’ll probably be promoted — but don’t rush to get him onto your fantasy team.

Dan Murphy

The 23-year-old third baseman for the B-Mets skipped all the way from 14 at-bats at short-season NY-Penn League in 2007 to AA this year and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s batting .311 with a .854 OPS though 75 games. However, his 17 errors at the hot corner and the presence of David Wright suggest he’ll need to move to another spot on the field before he moves up to the bigs (for the Mets, at least). How about moving him now and seeing what happens? I wouldn’t be surprised if B-Mets manager Mako Oliveras started inserting “LF” next to his name in the lineup. He’s a longshot, at best.

Valentino Pascucci

Some fans (including yours truly) were clamoring for Pascucci while he was in the midst of a torrid hot streak earlier this year. Since then, he has cooled considerably and scouts report he is a major liability in the field. If he’s not blasting homeruns, he’s not much help; his window of hotness may have passed.

John Rodriguez

A homecoming for the New York-born Rodriguez would make for a nice story. Unfortunately, I don’t know that he’d be much help. He’s essentially Endy Chavez, minus the speed. Good fielder, high average hitter off the bench, but no power, strikes out too often for a singles hitter, and only an average runner.


Nelson Cruz

MetsBlog reported that many teams around MLB were “interested” in Cruz, who is tearing up the PCL with a .343 average and 26 homers and 89 RBI in only 289 at-bats (take that, Josh Hamilton!). Anyone whose been reading MetsToday knows I’ve been screaming for this guy since January (and reiterated several times in March) — but hey, what do I know? Cruz can hit for power and play the field capably; his one issue is swinging and missing. But heck, that was Jack Cust’s problem, too, but he still did OK. If the Mets can pry him away for a few non-prospects, it’s worth the gamble.

Richie Sexson

Don’t laugh! Sexson came up as an outfielder / first baseman before settling in the infield. While true his Major League experience in the outfield is only 109 games, that’s still about 90 more than Tatis. And now that he’s been released by the Mariners, he can be obtained for nothing. Why not roll the dice? No risk, all reward. Besides, the Mets haven’t had a slugging, whiffing, sourpuss like this since Dave Kingman. It might be nice to have an ornery malcontent hanging around the clubhouse — the two Carloses would suddenly look like media mavens.

Billy Hall

Hall became a part-time player in May, and has been none too happy about it. He strikes out a ton, and can’t hit righties, but he’s still better than most of the Mets’ in-house options. He’d come much more cheaply than, say, Xavier Nady, and he could be emotionally inspired to prove the Brewers wrong. As an added bonus, he can also play 3B, SS, and 2B. If the cost is not too high, he’d be worth acquiring. Considering he’s already requested a trade, and he’s owed over $15M through 2010, he could be obtained for less than his true value.

Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn

Not happening. If any of these players come the Mets’ way, please shoot me, because it means they sent away the last dregs of an already compromised farm system.

Ken Griffey

Could the Mets steal him for a few mid-level prospects? Probably not. The only decent chips they have are the aforementioned Murphy, Evans, Mike Carp, and Jon Niese. The Reds might be interested in Niese, but likely none of the others. I wouldn’t send away any man on the current 25-man roster for Junior (i.e., Aaron Heilman) — we need every one of them.


Frank Catalanotto, Kenny Lofton

Why? I’d rather stand pat with the current crew. We don’t need any more overaged singles hitters.


Raul Ibanez

If he can be had for less than I think, by all means a solid solution. At age 36, he fits right into Minaya’s ideal age range, and the New York City native coming home will be a more exciting story than the aforementioned Rodriguez. He still collects extra-base hits, fields his position admirably, and can drive in runs. Whether he can be obtained for a fair package, however, is another story.

Bottom Line

Omar Minaya WILL make a deal. His hand is forced, and his job is on the line. Ibanez seems like the most “Minayalike” acquisition, even though it’s been reported that the Mets are no longer interested in the lefthanded-hitting outfielder. I’d guess Hall is the second option being discussed — Hall fits the “salary dump” descriptive that the Mets are using as leverage in talks, and he hits from the righthand side. Third scenario would have to be something with Baltimore, though I’m not sure what the Mets have that the Orioles want. In conclusion, the player acquired is most likely to be no one mentioned in this post.

Share your guesses and thoughts in the comments.

Posted in Hot Stove, Mets Hitting, Mets Injuries | 7 Comments

Good Guy Bad Guy

Posted on July 15, 2008 by Joe Janish

Around the Blogs at the All-Star Break

Andrew Vazzano over at ‘Ropolitans rants about the Sign Guys — in particular, “Bad Sign Guy” and “Good Sign Guy”. Also have to agree with Andrew on his opinion of the two bald guys who walk around the stadium in orange suits. There’s only one Cow-BellMan … all the rest are pretenders.

Personally, I miss the “original” sign guy, the one you always see on the old Mets highlight reels from 1969 and 1973, the one who held up the “Ya Gotta Believe” placard. I don’t *think* Andrew’s “Good Sign Guy” is that guy.

By the way I’d have no idea what a “placard” is if not for Casey Stengel (anyone else remember that vintage interview of Casey, talking about ” … children carrying placards and yelling ‘Metsie Metsie’ …” ?).

Speaking of good guys and bad guys, Joel Sherman says the Mets are no longer pursuing Raul Ibanez while USS Mariner is rooting for such a deal. You can decide for yourself who’s good, and who’s bad.

Dana Brand’s “All Star Break” post includes a fitting passage that may apply to many of us:

“The last nine games have altered everything. … What’s most fun is having what we had in ’73 and ’01: that sense, that although we were heading for the exits, we have to get back to our seats. We were, as you may remember, just about ready to turn our attention to the other things is our lives and worlds. Now the Mets are back, better than ever …”

Finally, “Coop” writes a lovely, moving tribute to Derek Jeter, in honor of the last All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium.

Meanwhile, please expect to continue to see some weird things here at MetsToday as I continue with technical upgrades.

Posted in Around the Blogs | 5 Comments

Website Issues

Posted on July 14, 2008 by Joe Janish

Note to all MetsToday visitors: you may experience some strange looks to the website, and/or may see no website at all, over the next day or so, while we tend to some maintenance and upgrade issues.

Please be patient as we take care of these issues … I’ll write another post letting everyone know when the upgrades are complete and the site is running normally again.

FYI there should not be any problems with posting comments, so please continue to do so. Thanks!

Posted in Shea What? | Comments Off on Website Issues

Mets Game 95: Win Over Rockies

Posted on July 13, 2008 by Joe Janish

Mets 7 Rockies 0

Mike Pelfrey was spectacular. AGAIN.

Who IS this guy? It’s not the feeble doe we saw on the mound in 2006, 2007, and the first two months of 2008. This new guy has command, confidence, and maybe even a mean streak. Against every batter, I’m in awe and grateful surprise watching “Big Pelf” dominate. What a thrill to watch a kid with his stuff throw with such assurance, challenging hitters to swat at his fastball. It’s not unlike the days of Nolan Ryan, only different. Where Ryan used to simply throw 100-MPH heaters over the middle of the plate, chest high, Pelfrey is slamming the sinker and the rising four-seamer. I never thought I’d say in 2008 that it would be fun to watch Mike Pelfrey … but it is — pure fun.

Pelfrey shut out the Rockies through 8 innings, allowing only 6 hits, walking none, and striking out 5. He threw 119 pitches, but looked strong enough to finish the game. It would’ve been nice to see Big Pelf finish up and earn the shutout — this from someone who regularly agonized through 135- and 150-pitch outings by Al Leiter. Why better-conditioned athletes can’t go as far, we’ll never know. Blame the atrocities set forth by the clowns at ASMI.

Anyway, I digress …

Beyond the miraculous Mike Pelfrey story there was the Mets’ offense, which scored seven runs, led by Carlos Beltran’s 3-for-4, 3 RBI night. Surprise two-hole-hitter Nick Evans collected two hits, an RBI, and scored a run, and Carlos Delgado’s only hit of the evening was a majestic, Dave Kingman-like, soaring blast toward the scoreboard and over the right field wall that plated himself and Damion Easley.

There were other hits, only 4 runners left on base, and three double plays, but the bottom line was this: the Mets controlled the game from the outset, offensively and defensively. There was never a question as to who would win this contest.

Notes

Pelfrey led the Mets to their ninth straight win. They haven’t won 10 in a row since 2001 1991 (I think?).

Big Pelf induced 15 ground balls, and of the 4 fly balls, at least two of them were weak popups to the infield. In addition to flat-out dominating the Colorado hitters, Pelfrey also stroked a Major League-looking line drive single into left field. I think I already asked, but, who IS this guy???

Damion Easley turned three DPs, including one spectacular pivot in which he dug a David Wright short-hop throw out of the dirt to retire Brad Hawpe and spun to nail Garrett Atkins by a half-step at first.

Speaking of Hawpe, he had 5 of the Rockies’ 11 hits in the three-game series.

I HATE the All-Star game. I used to love it, back when the NL and AL hated each other and played a hard-nosed, all-out game. Now that it’s a lovefest of “opponents” smiling at each other, embracing, and exchanging jokes and email addresses, it’s little more than a sham — despite MLB’s greatest attempts to make people think it matters. For those who weren’t around, the last time there was a real competition between the two leagues was probably 1979 or 1980. But this year I hate the contest even more because a.) David Wright was a last-minute inclusion and therefore won’t get three days off and b.) the break threatens to kill the momentum of the Mets’ 9-game win streak (as astutely pointed out by my wife).

Next Game

The next Mets game won’t be until after the All-Star break, which means no baseball until Thursday night, when the Mets play in Cincinnati. I have no idea who the starting pitchers will be, but I’m guessing it could be Johan Santana vs. Aaron Harang Johnny Cueto(?).

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 3 Comments

Mets Game 94: Win Over Rockies

Posted on July 12, 2008 by Joe Janish

Mets 3 Rockies 0

If not for a Brad Hawpe single in the fourth, the Mets might have made history.

At the time, Hawpe’s flare off of sore-shouldered Pedro Martinez seemed innocent enough. But by the time David Wright snared a liner off the bat of Garrett Atkins in the top of the ninth to end the game, it was huge — because it was the only base hit the Rockies earned all day.

Once again, a no-hitter eluded the Mets record book, as it has for 46 years running. Some day, maybe, but not this one.

The no-hitter may have been lost, but the game was not. The Mets collected seven more hits than their rivals, and three runs, en route to their seventh eighth straight victory and third shutout in five games. Pedro lasted only four, striking out three and walking three in a 66-pitch outing cut short by shoulder tightness. He never threw faster than 88 MPH, and used mostly a combination of slow curves, slower curves, and change-ups to keep the Colorado hitters off balance. Carlos Muniz came on and pitched two perfect innings in earning his first Major League victory. Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, and Billy Wagner also threw perfect innings (efficient, too — only 33 pitches total among them) to continue the bullpen’s outstanding string of late.

The three Mets runs came courtesy of a Jose Reyes solo homer, an RBI single by Fernando Tatis, and an RBI double by Brian Schneider.

Notes

Carlos Beltran also belted a double, his 23rd of the season, and proceeded to steal third (his 15th SB), before scoring on Tatis’ single.

The Mets’ bullpen has allowed two hits and no runs in the last five games, covering 18 1/3 innings.

In addition to the double, Schneider also walked three times. He’s 2-for-5 with 6 walks in his last three games.

Carlos Delgado went 1-for-2 with two walks, but his average is still a few points shy of .250. The walks he’s drawing lately, however, are very encouraging. He was walked intentionally once in this game — something that hadn’t been happening earlier this season.

Randy Johnson and the Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Phillies 10-4, and lead the now second-place Mets by only a half game. Not that any of us are scoreboard watching or anything …

Next Game

The Mets and Rockies play the final game of their series, and the last game before the All-Star break, at Shea on Sunday at 8:05 pm. Mike Pelfrey takes the mound against Mark Redman. Redman has a 7.07 ERA in eight starts this year. He’s given up 21 runs in his last 4 starts, covering 19 2/3 innings. But I’m still not expecting anything. The game is on ESPN.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 3 Comments