Comeback Frequency

Baseball Reference has some really neat ways to view and organize stats. One of their features new this year is “team inning scoring”, where you can see the number of runs scored by inning and a team’s record in various game situations.

For example, the Mets have a 3-9 record when the score is in the other team’s favor in the second inning. It’s the same record when behind in the third inning. If the Mets are losing in the fourth inning, their record is 2-11. Losing after the fifth, their record is 3-14. In other words, if the Mets fall behind early, there’s little chance of them coming back. We all have witnessed the Mets’ knack for rolling over or “calling it in” once they start losing, but for once the stats actually support what we think we’re seeing.

Compare and contrast:

[TABLE=29]

As you can ascertain, the team that takes the lead early in the game has the best chance of winning. But, it’s interesting to see how much “fight” the top three teams in the division have in later innings, compared to the bottom two.

What’s particularly bothersome is that in this day and age of MLB, with the worst pitchers on the staff making regular rounds (the “middle relievers”), many games are won or lost from innings five through seven. The Mets, however, clearly do not take advantage of these lesser-skilled hurlers — quite the contrary, in fact.

Probably, though, it has NOTHING to do with their approach at the plate. For example, it probably wouldn’t make a difference if they made a regular habit of taking a strike with no one on, and behind, late in a game. The 11th and 12th pitchers on a team usually have Greg Maddux-like command, and/or Sandy Koufax-like nasty stuff. Certainly you don’t want to fall behind 0-1, or even up 1-1, against unhittable guys such as Jesus Colome, Blaine Boyer, Rudy Seanez, and Taylor Tankersley — those guys are so good they make me shiver!

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Walking to Wins

The Mets are fourth in the NL in walks with 187 — though, there are several teams within four or five free passes, so you could say they’re middle of the pack.

Those 187 walks translate to an average of close to 4 bases on balls per game (3.8, to be exact).

In May, however, I’d like to point out a few details.

May record: 9 wins, 14 losses.

Of those 14 losses, they walked 3 times or less 11 times. And of those 11 times, 9 times it was 2 walks or less.

Among their 9 wins, they walked 4 times or more 6 times.

So, when they drew at least four walks in a game, their record was 6-3.

Interestingly, when the Mets won 14 and lost 12 in March/April, they averaged nearly 5 walks per game (4.77 to be exact). So far in May, they are averaging a hair under 3 walks a game (2.8).

Again: 14-12 record while drawing close to 5 walks a game. 9-14 record while taking under 3 free passes per game.

Added bit of trivia: in 9 games vs. the Braves, the Mets drew 20 walks (about 2 per game), and have a record of 2 wins, 7 losses. In two of those losses, they did not draw ANY walks, and drew only one in two of the others.

Coincidence? Not likely.

Posted in Mets Hitting | 10 Comments

Mets Game 49: Loss to Marlins

Marlins 7 Mets 3

The Mets had a 3-2 lead in the second inning, but the Fish scored four runs in the third to go up 6-3 and bury the Mets.

I’m not sure why they bothered playing the last six innings — it was a complete waste of time for everyone. Everyone playing the game, watching the game, listening to the game, and within 50 miles of the game, knew the game was over after that four-run third by the Marlins.

True to form, the hapless, lifeless, brainless Mets stuck their heads right up their collective butts immediately after falling behind, and did a team-wide sleepwalk through the remainder of the game.

The only offense in the entire game came from Jose Reyes, who hit two solo homers in the first two frames. Oh, and “team leader” Carlos Delgado managed to hit a lazy fly ball for a sac fly in the third. In the past week, he’s been producing just enough to support the Mets’ front office’s illusion that he can be productive.

Mike Pelfrey was terrible, as usual, looking like the AA pitcher he is. Perhaps someone with power inside the organization will finally speak up and recommend his demotion. The kid simply is not ready, and won’t be, until he has an opportunity to build confidence in his stuff in a pressure-free environment, and develop an off-speed pitch. This isn’t my opinion, it’s a fact that anyone with two eyes and ten minutes’ of baseball experience can see 100 feet away.

Notes

I brought it up before, I’ll bring it up again: TAKE A STRIKE WHEN YOU’RE LOSING. Rallies rarely occur as a result of a collection of first-pitch hits. They happen from a batter walking, the defense losing their concentration, an error occurring, etc. The Mets were down by three for most of the game, yet still were swinging from their heels with nobody on and no strikes on the count. Carlos Beltran just LOVES to do this — his first-pitch flyout following the four-run top of the third was reprehensible — he gave Ricky Nolasco a free pass. Beltran later swung away in the seventh with no one on and a 1-0 count — again, completely unacceptable. David Wright did the same thing two pitches earlier. Guess what? That’s called an epidemic. One guy does it, gets away with it, everyone else thinks it’s OK — worse, a great idea! Terrible baseball.

To be clear, smart baseball — i.e., “fundamentals” — say it’s OK to swing with no strikes when you’re down IF a) there are runners on base who you can advance or drive in; b) you know what’s coming; c) you are on an unconscious hot streak. Otherwise, it’s DUMB baseball, a.k.a., losing baseball (this is the opposite of winning).

One bright spot was Aaron Heilman’s two innings of spotless relief. It’s amazing how relaxed he looked, pitching early in the game and without pressure. Ding ding ding ding ding! Is the light bulb on? Anyone? Is it possible he doesn’t have the chutzpah to pitch in the pressure cooker five days a week? Keep stretching this guy out and put him in the rotation.

At first, while watching SNY’s SportsNite, I thought Lee Mazzilli had shaven his head. However, it turned out to be Darryl Strawberry.

Next Loss

The Mets will lose to the Marlins tomorrow in a game scheduled to begin at 7:10 pm. Johan Santana will have another excellent outing go to waste as the Mets bats are befuddled by Andrew “Koufax” Miller.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 5 Comments

Mets Game 48: Loss to Rockies

Rockies 4 Mets 1

The Mets lost yet another ballgame.

Isn’t it fascinating that the Mets seem to be “tipping their cap”, and “giving credit” to opposing pitchers several times a week? Makes you wonder — is it a coincidence, or is it time to start looking in the mirror and thinking, “hmm, maybe we stink” ?

John Maine allowed four runs, but actually pitched quite well — going six innings, allowing only three hits, four walks, three earned runs, and striking out eight. But, one big blow off the bat of Seth Smith was the deciding factor in the game, and seemed to take the air out of the Mets.

In the bottom of the fourth, with one out, Maine walked Todd Helton, and induced a double-play grounder from Ryan Spilborghs. However, the ball went through Jose Reyes’ legs — literally, right through the wickets — and Smith followed with long fly ball that landed beyond the outfield fence.

After Jose Reyes drove in the first run of the game in the top of the third, the Mets bats went to sleep — managing only one base hit (a single by Carlos Beltran in the eighth) for the rest of the ballgame. Ironically, the Mets outhit the Rockies 4 to 3, but obviously were not nearly as efficient.

Notes

Reyes is having a tough time lately. His hitting is slow to come around, he was picked off again today, he let a ball go through his legs … one might wonder if a) he’s on drugs or b) he needs some drugs (kidding on both counts). Personally, I think the heat put on Willie Randolph is causing Reyes to press, or otherwise affecting his focus.

Rockies starter (and finisher) Aaron Cook allowed only four hits and one walk, expending 118 pitches in his 9-inning stint. That’s 13 pitches an inning, folks. You can “tip your cap” all you want to Cook, but the bottom line is this: the Mets hitters continue to have an over-aggressive approach, expand their strike zone, and walk into the batter’s box without a plan. One thing is crystal clear: what they’re doing, ain’t working. If Willie Randolph wants to keep his job, he has to lose the laissez-faire style of managing. It’s time for him to directly control the batter’s decisions, because they aren’t making the correct ones on their own. That means, instituting the “take” sign, and sitting players for stupidity — such as first-pitch swinging late in the game when you’re down by three and no one is on base. In case you missed it, David Wright, Fernando Tatis, and Carlos Beltran were all guilty of stupidity in this game — and Beltran swung from his heels to start the last at-bat of the game. Again, tell me how one hits a three-run homer with nobody on?

Next Game

The Mets return home — not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing — to start a three-game set against the first-place Marlins. Mike Pelfrey goes against Ricky Nolasco in a 7:10 PM start, so enjoy the afternoon barbecue. You can watch it on SNY or listen to it on WFAN or XM 188.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 4 Comments

I Smell a Trade

hafner.jpgDespite the fact that Willie Randolph is required to report to the principal’s office upon his return to New York, I don’t believe he’ll be fired (yet).

However, as Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog suggests, a change MUST be made.

Again, I don’t think Willie will be fired just yet, though he will get a stern talking-to about various issues from the past week. Although, if MLB were like any other industry, Randolph would be updating his resume right about now.

Because they won’t fire the manager, the Mets will have to do something else. Maybe Nick Evans is the big change — similar to when David Wright was promoted in 2004. Evans’ three doubles and stellar play in left field were certainly impressive, but can he keep it up? Will he get the chance? If the answer to those questions are both “yes”, then Evans could be a spark. If nothing else, he has the opportunity to motivate Carlos Delgado.

But, if Evans is not the wrinkle, then I think a trade will be made. Yes, it’s early in the season, and trades rarely happen before July, but Indians GM Mark Shapiro is on the horn looking to wheel and deal. Not many teams other than the Indians and Mets are desperate for change right now, and we know Omar Minaya and Shapiro had a nice chat during spring training.

With a team average of .231, the Injuns are looking to upgrade their offense. Slugger Travis Hafner is batting under .220 … maybe they’d be crazy enough to deal him for Carlos Delgado. Don’t laugh, the deal could make sense for Cleveland. Hafner’s batting average dropped 40 points last year, and also lost 200 points in slugging percentage. He’s signed through 2012, and owed $57M over that span. If Shapiro thinks Hafner is in rapid decline, it would be very smart to deal him now for Delgado, who might provide similar production but can be cut loose at the end of this season.

The way Aaron Heilman has been pitching lately, I’d guess he’d be one of the first guys to go (sadly, considering my man-crush). If a bat like Hafner’s can come our way, I won’t be too upset to include Aaron in such a deal. More likely, though, is seeing Aaron dealt away for Jensen Lewis, who had a strong 2007 but came into spring training this year with a 6-7 MPH drop in his velocity. If not Lewis, I’d be thrilled to get 25-year-old lefty Jeremy Sowers, who has been a disappointment since going 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA as a 23-year-old in 2006. But please, don’t trade Heilman for garbage such as recently DFA’d Craig Breslow or Jorge Julio.

The more I think about the Hafner possibility, the more I like it. I may be out of mind, but there’s definitely some logic behind it — IF the Indians believe his skills are eroding at age 31, and wondering if regular PEDs testing has something to do with it (oops, did I write that out loud?). Would the Mets want to take on almost $60M, though? I think they’d have to, from a PR standpoint. Hafner was a monster from 2004-2006, and has an intensity currently lacking on the Sheasters. For the Indians, it would be a shrewd salary dump; for the Mets, a much-needed change for the sake of change.

Posted in News Notes Rumors | 2 Comments

Mets Game 47: Win Over Rockies

Mets 9 Rockies 2

What a difference a day makes.

After losing five straight games, the Mets came out like gangbusters, jumping out to a 5-0 lead in the first inning, and commanding the game thereafter.

Claudio Vargas, pitching on three days’ rest, was impressive, going seven full innings and allowing only four hits and one earned run.

Frighteningly, I must share this comment from loyal reader “sincekindergarten”:

# sincekindergarten Says:
May 24th, 2008 at 1:47 pm e

Oh – according to the lineup on MetsBlog, not only is Tatis in RF today, but Nick Evans, just called up from Binghamton, will be in LF. This is the day that the Mets will score 14 runs, and Vargas will get 7 IP with the win (1 ER, 4 H).

OK, the Mets didn’t score 14, but, wow, SK … how about giving me some lotto numbers?

Notes

With Marlon Anderson placed on the DL, and Brady Clark’s season ending due to knee surgery, the Mets promoted AA hotshot 1B-OF Nick Evans and inserted him into the eighth spot of the order. Evans responded with a 3-for-4 day — all three hits were doubles — and drove in two. He also caught about 19 fly balls in leftfield. All right, maybe not 19, but he did seem to make an inordinate amount of putouts — 6 or 7 by my count.

Ramon Castro also went 3-for-4, including a double. Carlos Beltran had only one hit all day, but it was a big one: a bases-loaded double in the first that plated all three runners; it was his 14th two-bagger of the season. David Wright smacked his 9th homer of the year, and Carlos “I’m Not Dead Yet” Delgado homered as well — for the third straight game. It’s as if Delgado reads MetsToday and is determined to prove me wrong. If that’s the case, tell you what Carlos: I still think you stink! (keep the dingers coming).

Delgado might have to keep going a yard, if Nick Evans hits three doubles every game.

With that youthful, clean-shaven, half-frightened look, the old-school closed stance, and punching the ball to right field, Nick Evans looks to me like a guy who could have been a ’69 Met.

Fernando Tatis was plunked by reliever Alberto Arias in the seventh, and it appeared to me to be a purpose pitch — particularly since Arias missed him by inches the first two pitches, and kept staring at Tatis after hitting him. There wasn’t anything in the game to cause sour feelings, so maybe these two have a history from playing against each other in AAA or the Caribbean league.

Next Game

The rubber match pits John Maine against Aaron Cook in a 3:05 pm EST start. Cook’s a tough cookie, so if Maine does well it could be a pitchers’ duel. You can watch it on CW 11 or listen to it on WFAN and XM 184.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 2 Comments

Mets Game 46: Rockies

Rockies 6 Mets 5

It took 13 innings, but the Mets finally lost their fifth straight game. Sadly, I think I was not alone in waiting for the loss to occur … the Mets just didn’t seem to show any reason to believe otherwise.

Aaron Heilman won the job of most likely to be Willie Randolph’s chauffeur when the manager is axed upon his return to New York, as he was the unfortunate soul to give up the winning run in the unlucky 13th frame. As if the guy needed any more negativity.

But it wasn’t really Aaron’s fault the Mets lost. Rather, the blame should be pinned on the closer. Billy Wagner finally gave up an earned run — and the timing couldn’t have been worse. After retiring Clint Barmes on the first pitch of the ninth inning, Wags threw a hard fastball at the knees on the inside part of the plate that Matt Holliday re-directed into the seats. You can’t blame Billy, as it was a pretty good pitch. But then, that’s how things are going for the Mets lately.

Garrett Atkins — who is batting .500 against lefties this year — singled, and Wags had Todd Helton struck out on a 2-2 pitch, but the umpire blinked and called it ball three. Wagner then fed him a nasty up and in fastball that Helton miraculously got the barrel on, sending the ball to the outfield and putting runners on first and third (again, that’s the way things are going). With the infield in, Ryan Spilborgs ripped a ball to Jose Reyes, who looked the runner on third back and went to second for out number two. Scott Podsednik then worked the count full before popping up to Reyes to end the inning.

Apparently, the Mets only hit homeruns back-to-back now. Again Carlos Delgado was part of a double-dinger display, hitting a fly ball into the thin air that a 20-MPH wind carried over the fence. Delgado must have whispered “get it up in the air” to next batter Fernando Tatis, because Tatis followed with a pop up to center that just kept carrying, and carrying, and carrying, until it finally dropped just beyond the centerfield fence. The wind-aided blasts put the Mets ahead 4-2 in the sixth, but the lead did not last — the Rockies came back to tie the game in the bottom of the frame.

However, in the seventh, the Mets played some small ball. Endy Chavez began the inning by ripping the ball past drawn-in third baseman Garrett Atkins for a single. Damion Easley, pinch hitting for Joe Smith, executed a beautiful hit and run to move Endy to third. Chavez scored one pitch later on a fly ball by Jose Reyes to put the Mets ahead 5-4.

Oliver Perez was not great, and did not have his best stuff. At some points, it looked like he was holding back, or aiming the ball. At other points, he was on his own agenda, pitching on Planet Perez, dropping down or over-rotating a la Luis Tiant. Still, he found a way to eke through five innings allowing only two runs despite seven walks. His luck finally ran out in the sixth, when he gave up a cheap infield hit and a walk and was removed from the game (both runners eventually scored). The final line: 5 IP, 6 H, 8 BB, 2 K, 4 ER. Allowing 14 baserunners in five innings, it’s a minor miracle only four runs crossed the plate.

Notes

Jose Reyes led off the 10th with a single stretched into a double, then was picked off by Brian Fuentes. I watched the replay of the pickoff in slo-mo about 20 times, and I can’t figure out why 1) the umpires didn’t call a balk; 2) Willie Randolph didn’t run out and argue it was a balk; and 3) the Mets announcers didn’t even consider the fact it might have been a balk. Fuentes lifted his leg, then dropped it straight down, then turned and stepped to second base. I’ll quote rule 8.05 of MLB Rules:

8.05
If there is a runner, or runners, it is a balk when —
(a) The pitcher, while touching his plate, makes any motion naturally associated with his pitch and fails to make such delivery;
Rule 8.05(c) Comment: Requires the pitcher, while touching his plate, to step directly toward a base before throwing to that base. If a pitcher turns or spins off of his free foot without actually stepping or if he turns his body and throws before stepping, it is a balk. ….
A pitcher is to step directly toward a base before throwing to that base but does not require him to throw (except to first base only) because he steps.

Watching the replay, Fuentes did not step anywhere, but lifted his foot and brought it back down — effectively, making a motion toward home plate. That is a blatant deceit of the runner. Either I’m completely off base or everyone else was sleeping on that play. Last I checked, a pitcher can’t start his motion, stop it, then throw to a base … the rules dictate that you must step directly to the base. You can’t just stop, then decide to step and throw. Keith? Gary? Lee Mazzilli? Did ANYONE see the balk? Are you kidding me? Nah, it’s a lot easier to simply blame Reyes and leave it at that. On the record, I completely disagree with Maz’s assessment that Reyes was either not paying attention or trying to steal second. Rather, Reyes had a fairly unaggressive lead, and was deceived by Fuentes’ balk. But what do I know, I’m just a dumb blogger.

Not sure why Willie Randolph stuck with Ollie Perez in the sixth, after the Mets went ahead 4-2. It was clear in the fifth that Ollie was struggling mightily, having walked three batters in the inning and thrown a wild pitch. After getting the lead, it made sense to bring in a reliever to start the inning — it was only a matter of time before Perez’s luck ran out. Usually, I’m for lengthening the starter’s outing, but in this case, after getting swept by the Braves, and Willie’s job in jeopardy, Ollie with zero stuff cannot be sent back out there. Now is not the time to be showing confidence in your guy, nor the time to let him “tough it out”. The Mets — and Randolph — were too desperate for a win.

I never thought I’d write this, but … Scott Schoeneweis was spectacular. He threw two innings of hitless relief, holding a one-run lead for Billy Wagner. Oh well.

I think Jose Reyes could have easily stolen on rookie Greg Reynolds in the third — before he even let go of the ball — when it was he on second and and Luis Castillo on first. Reynolds does that idiotic Mike Mussina “lean over” (idiotic because all it does is tire you out and accelerate a herniated disk), and is in no position to make a throw while in the midst of it. If I’m Reyes, I’m bolting the second he starts leaning down. Most likely, the kid freezes and balks, or at best loses his rhythm, forgets where he is, and takes too long to throw to third base. With a decent lead, Reyes has about 25 yards to cover between the bases, and with his speed needs only about three seconds to get to the next one. I’m positive that Reynolds would be unable to stop his lean over, step off the rubber, figure out which base he needs to throw to, and make a good throw within that three-second window.

Fascinating events in the top of the fourth. First, Carlos Delgado hits a chopper to second base and lollygags it to first base. Then, Marlon Anderson follows with a grounder to short, busts it down the line, and ends up pulling his hamstring. There’s something wrong in the natural order of things when a “leader” such as Delgado gets away with not hustling, and the guy who hustles ends up injured.

It would figure that Wagner, the one guy on the team with a sliver of leadership and a hundred pounds’ worth of accountability, would be the goat this evening. Also figures that the only other guy on the team with any life — David Wright — would go 1 for 6, with his only hit a weak blooper.

Go ahead, blame Willie Randolph for this one. But don’t ignore the fact that Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and D-Wright were a combined 2-for-16 in this game. The Mets WILL NOT WIN if the “key three” continue to mess the bed — it doesn’t matter who is managing.

Carlos Delgado hit the ball hard twice, including a wind-aided homer, so I guess that means he has a job for a few more weeks.


Next Game

The Mets will try for six in a row tomorrow afternoon in a 3:55 pm start on FOX (ugh). I think Claudio Vargas will be pitching against Jeff Francis. Whatever.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 5 Comments

Where Is Pascucci?

So … Moises Alou is placed on the 15-day DL after a stiff wind strained his calf. And the man to replace him on the 25-man roster is … Raul Casanova?

Huh?

I suppose this means Willie Randolph will consider using Ramon Castro as a pinch-hitter, but otherwise this is a real head-scratcher. Why in the world would the Mets not promote Valentino Pascucci?

Take a look at this line:

21 G| 79 AB | 23 H | 7 2B | 7 HR | 16 RBI | .380 OBP | .646 SLG | 1.026 OPS | .291 AVG

He’s a righthanded hitter who is a natural first baseman but playing the outfield for the Zephyrs. Hmm … the Mets could really use a RH power bat who can play 1B and the OF, dontcha think? Wouldn’t it be a nice idea to put a hot hitter like Pascucci at 1B against lefties, with Carlos Delgado struggling mightily?

It’s not a roster issue, because the Mets have only 37 men on their 40-man … and two of the spots are inexplicably being used by Ruddy Lugo and Ambiorix Burgos. Lugo is not a commodity, and Burgos should be placed on the 60-day DL as he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery (a player on the 60-day does not count against the 40-man roster).

I do understand that Casanova played well in his brief stint earlier this year. However, what was the point of signing Pascucci, if he wasn’t going to be considered for MLB play? He’s a career minor leaguer who has proven himself at the AAA level, and never quite been given a fair opportunity in the bigs. We assumed his signing was one of those “lightning in a bottle” moves. But now we know he was just filler material — much like Chip Ambres last year, who was similarly passed over several times despite great numbers when the Mets were desperate for outfield help.

Posted in Mets Hitting, Mets Injuries | 3 Comments