More Phrom Phillies Phans

Posted on April 9, 2008 by Joe Janish

After the Home Opener loss yesterday, I phigured you haven’t heard enough about the Phillies … so herewith more pheedback from Phillies phans, this time phrom Jonathan oph The Good Phight.

1. With the Mets acquisition of Johan Santana, do you see them as the Phillies’ main competition for the NL East title, or are the Braves a more threatening club?

Mets are definitely a more threatening club. The injury to Pedro hurts, but Santana, Maine and Perez (who I thought could compete for a Cy Young 3 years ago) is solid. Hudson seems like the odds are going to catch up with him and Smoltz and Glavine are almost as old as Shea.


2. How do you feel about Brad Lidge in the closer’s role and Brett Myers in the starting rotation? Is this the best use of the team’s arms?

Lidge has the best strikeout rate in the history of the game for a pitcher that has thrown as many innings as he has. The mental component is a question mark, but really, is it more of a question mark than on Brett Myers. Myers had back to back season of ERAs under 4.00 (which is considered elite now) and is best used in the starting rotation.


3. I think Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz are going to have fun in CBP … how do you feel about these particular acquisitions?

Jenkins is a decent addition if he only hits righties, but at his price and his declining numbers, you have to hope he really has a good year this year. His forecast doesn’t look too bright. Feliz is the biggest mistake that Gillick made this offseason. His OBP is putrid and his power is probably seen its best days despite being in the CBP. Factor in that he is on the wrong side of 30 and I would have been happier with a Dobbs/Helms platoon. At least you didn’t have to pay even more for that. Considering that the Giants may have the worst offensive team in the league and didn’t re-sign him should be an indicator there.


4. What is the key to the Phillies’ success this season?

The key to the Phillies success is what happens in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rotation spots. I am not too high on any of those guys. Assuming for a moment you win every game with Myers and Hamels (hypothetical here), you only need to win one game with those three guys each time around the rotation. Hopefully that is the least we’ll get from them.


5. Who on the Phils will be biggest surprise in 2008?

Pat Burrell. Not that he is a surprise to me as I have been a big Burrell supporter over the years, but he often gets kicked around in the media here. He has been remarkably consistent over the last 3 years and I think we may see even more in his contract year.

6. Is Shane Victorino an everyday centerfielder?

Absolutely, but mostly because everyday centerfielders aren’t that great. Shane plays above average defense and hits about league average which is good to have at such a cheap price at a tough position.


7. Prediction: who is the Phillies’ team MVP in 2008?

Most likely Chase Utley (as he was last year). Rollins gets the glam, but Utley plays solid defense at second and has a much better OBP and SLG than Rollins. Of course, Hamels may be just as important, but I prefer to keep Cy Youngs and MVPs separate.

Thanks again to Jonathan. Be sure to check out The Good Phight for Phillies information.

Posted in Around the Blogs, Inside Looks | Comments Off on More Phrom Phillies Phans

Injury Updates

Posted on April 8, 2008 by Joe Janish

So much for his knees feeling great … Luis Castillo was removed from the game in the fifth inning and replaced by Damion Easley because his knee felt “sore”. Swell.

Matt Wise was placed on the 15-day DL with an elbow contusion, and was replaced on the roster by Carlos Muniz. Strange move. As astute and loyal MetsToday reader “isuzudude” pointed out, a much better option, particularly with the 3-game series against the Phillies, would have been veteran LHP Ricardo Rincon.

We know that Willie Randolph will not use Carlos Muniz in any important situation … behind by three in the ninth inning vs. the Phillies was about the most critical spot Muniz will see. On the other hand, Willie would be quick to use a veteran such as Rincon, and Rincon’s lefthandedness would be especially useful against the lefty-heavy Philly lineup.

The thinking, we guess, is that the Mets preferred Muniz because he was already on the 40-man roster (and has options) while Rincon is not. However, the Mets currently have only 37 players on the 40-man, with at least one of them (Ambiorix Burgos) soon to be moved to the 60-day DL and therefore not counting against the 40 spots.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that the move has something to do with the options rules (which I still don’t understand). Perhaps if Rincon is brought up, he’d have to pass through waivers before being sent down again?

However, none of this should matter if indeed there is a problem with Pedro Feliciano, as the SNY broadcast team guessed and the rest of us wonder after watching Scott Schoeneweis and Aaron Heilman get roughed up by Phillies. But then, perhaps Rincon has some kind of injury as well.

**** UPDATE *****


Pedro Feliciano was unavailable because he arrived to the ballpark late. According to Adam Rubin, Feliciano was returning from Puerto Rico:

Pedro Feliciano was unavailable because he arrived at the ballpark in the seventh inning. Feliciano had permission from the Mets to go home to Puerto Rico for a family issue after Sunday’s game in Atlanta. His 6 a.m. flight from San Juan to JFK was cancelled, and he had to be re-routed through Orlando. Mets security picked him up at the airport, but couldn’t get him to the ballpark in time to contribute.

In the same post by Rubin, he tells us that Orlando Hernandez had something of a setback in his recovery and was in NYC for an MRI. Lovely.

Hat tip to isuzudude for the link.

Jimmy Rollins left Tuesday’s game with a sprained ankle. We’ll hope he’s out until the weekend.

Posted in Mets Injuries | 8 Comments

Mets Game 6: Loss to Phillies

Posted on April 8, 2008 by Joe Janish

Phillies 5 Mets 2

Early on, it appeared as though the Mets would cruise to an Opening Day victory, having scored two runs in the first four innings and Oliver Perez looking great on the mound. However, it was not to be, as the Phillies beat the Mets for the ninth straight time (going back to 2007).

Ollie pitched well through five, and got two quick outs in the sixth against the Phils’ top hitters, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Perez then got 2-2 to Pat Burrell before unraveling.

First, he lost Burrell and walked him. Then, he threw three straight balls to Jayson Werth, then balked on an attempted pickoff with the count 3-0. He threw a fourth straight ball to Werth, but crossed up Brian Schneider and the ball bounced off Schneider’s mitt, allowing Burrell to get to third (it was ruled a passed ball, not really fair but it almost always is if the ball doesn’t hit the dirt). Willie Randolph quickly removed Perez before he completely imploded, replacing him with Joe Smith. Smith walked Pedro Feliz to load the bases but induced a harmless grounder from Carlos Ruiz to end the threat.

Unfortunately, while Perez avoided an implode, the bullpen did not.

Randolph replaced Smith with Scott Schoeneweis to start the seventh. The Show retired So Taguchi to start the inning, then gave up a blistering single to Jimmy Rollins. Shane Victorino worked the count full before ripping a single up the middle, and then Schoeneweis hit Chase Utley to load the bases. In Show’s defense, Utley leaned into the pitch, and in fact the ball was only about 4 inches off the plate when it hit Utley’s right shoulder — but the umps allow him to stand there. Ryan Howard then hit a grounder to Delgado, and Carlos threw second for the force out, but the throw hit Utley in the back and rolled away, allowing two runs to score. It was a tough play for Delgado, as Utley was running to the outfield side of second and Reyes was set up to receive the ball in the same area. Looking at the angle on instant replay, it would have been very difficult for Delgado to throw to the inside (home plate side) of the bag. Even if he did, I doubt they would have turned a DP, so at least one run would have scored anyway.

Show was then removed for Jorge Sosa, who got a flyout from Pat Burrell, but then gave up a single to Jayson Werth on an 0-2 slider that drove in Utley with the go-ahead run. As Ron Darling noted, hitters have an easy time protecting against that pitch against Sosa, because all he throws are sliders off the plate. Batters can lean over and into the plate and hit the ball to right, as Werth did, since Sosa never goes inside with a hard fastball to move them off the plate or “get their feet moving”.

Aaron Heilman gave up runs four and five in the eighth, while LOOGY Pedro Feliciano never got warmed up. If there’s something physically wrong with Pedro Lite, we must wonder why in the world the Mets promoted Carlos Muniz and not Ricardo Rincon.

Newly promoted Carlos Muniz pitched a hitless ninth to preserve a save situation for Tom Gordon.


Notes

Aaron Heilman, Jorge Sosa, and Scott Schoeneweis are all on pace to appear in 108 games each this season.

Kind of fun to see Carlos Muniz face Carlos Ruiz in the ninth inning.

Red-hot Carlos Delgado hit his first homer of the year, a prestigious blast over the rightfield fence.

Speaking of Delgado, interesting to see the Phils run the “Delgado Shift” on Brian Schneider. From what I’ve seen of Schneider — both in ST and in this early season — he’s a dead pull hitter who rarely, if ever, hits the ball to the left of the pitcher’s mound. He and Jose Reyes should be working on going the opposite way in BP, IMHO.

Carlos Beltran remains hot, as he hit his seventh double of the season. He’s on pace to hit 189 this year.

The “Flyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino stole a few potential extra-base hits — and prevented at least two runs from scoring — by snaring long drives off the bats of David Wright and Carlos Beltran. So far, it doesn’t look like the Phillies will miss Aaron Rowand, at least in the field.

Get the Frog Out of Your Glove

BTW, while Victorino saved two runs for the Phils, defensive specialist Brian Schneider had two passed balls that led to runs scoring. So much for winning more games by having better defense behind the plate and in the outfield.

Holy S!

Ron Darling slipped during the SNY broadcast, and no one was quick enough to hit the sneeze button. Right after Scott Schoeneweis plugged Chase Utley, Darling stated, “Peterson is gonna come out here and kind of settle the shit down because obviously Schoeneweis is shaken up a bit here …” I think his mind was thinking “the Show” when he said “the shit”. (See the seashells by the seashore … )

Kong Speaks?

Keith Hernandez mentioned that Dave Kingman was at Shea to watch the game, and that the two had a lengthy conversation. Hmm … first, I can’t imagine Kingman having a lengthy conversation with anyone, and I can’t think of anything that Keith and Kong could possibly talk about for more than 20 seconds. Perhaps what Keith meant to say was, “Kingman listened to me speak for a lengthy amount of time”.


Next Game

Mets host the Phils again tomorrow in a 7:10 PM start. Mike Pelfrey takes the mound against Kyle Kendrick.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 9 Comments

The Fifth Starter

Posted on April 8, 2008 by Joe Janish

Some people wonder why I’m so panicked regarding the Mets’ fifth starter. After all, how many teams have a solid fifth starter? All we need is a guy to go out there and give us 5 decent innings, keep the team in the game, and then hand it over to the bullpen.

Well, take a look at the following table and draw your own conclusions regarding my concern.

[table=28]

The above pitchers were the collective “spot starters” who filled in the fifth slot in the rotation at different periods during the 2007 season. I chose not to include Jorge Sosa because when he made his 14 starts, he was more of a regular in the rotation rather than a fill-in — and I wanted to focus on the fill-ins to see just how much of an impact they had on the team’s final record. Mike Pelfrey was included because his starts were sporadic; there was no point in the season where he took the ball every fifth day for more than five consecutive starts.

All in all, there were a total of 24 games started by a pitcher not part of the regular rotation. Perhaps this is a helpful comparison: El Duque also started 24 games in 2007. So, in a way, these six men are comparable — in volume — to a regular starter who spent time on the DL.

In those 24 games, the spot starters pitched a grand total of 100 innings, and gave up 99 earned runs. That’s an average of 4.1 innings per start, and an ERA a shade under 9. They added four wins (how did they even win 4?) and 13 losses to the final standings, with 7 no-decisions left to the overtaxed bullpen.

Since the Mets lost the division by one game, you can immediately see the magnitude of these statistics.

Right now, the Mets are TWO starters short — unless we really believe Mike Pelfrey is ready to make 25-30 MLB starts, and/or Nelson Figueroa is the next Aaron Small (circa 2005). So, in essence, there are two spot starters holding up the back end of the rotation, with the likes of Brian Stokes and Tony Armas, Jr. next in line.

Maybe Big Pelf and Figgy can outperform last year’s spot starters. Let’s hope so, because if last year is any indication, those spot starts can mean the difference between winning and losing the division.

Posted in Pitching Staff | 3 Comments

Inside Look: Philadelphia Phillies

Posted on April 7, 2008 by Joe Janish

Coming off an abbreviated and disappointing two-game series in Atlanta, the Mets find their hands full with the Phillies, who come to Shea for the home opener.

To get a feel for what’s ticking inside the mind of a Phillies phan this early in the season, I called on Michael Berquist of A Citizen’s Blog.

1. Do the Mets scare you more or less compared to last year and why or why not?”

Unquestionably the Mets are a more talented and much more dangerous team than they were last season. The addition of Johan Santana and the return of Pedro Martinez gives the Mets some big guns to roll out in their rotation. However this analysis is contingent on Pedro and the rest of the aging Mets being healthy this season and that is a big if. Currently Moises Alou and Pedro are on the DL, so the gains that the Mets made in bringing Santana aboard might be erased otherwise.

I’m not of the opinion that the acquisition of Santana guarantees the Mets anything. The Mets rotation thrived on run support and defense last season, so Santana’s presence bolsters a unit that was in serious need of improvement. If Pedro and Santana are healthy and pitch at peek performance, then the Mets will be deadly. If Pedro is out, then the Mets need Santana to be great to beat the Phillies. Remember: even with Santana on the roster, the Twins posted a losing record in 2007. One man does not guarantee a pennant.

2. Did the Phillies do enough in the offseason to put an NL East champion back on the field in ’08?

I believe that the Phillies are a much-improved team over the ’07 version. In particular the team moved to strengthen their bullpen by acquiring Brad Lidge, which had the domino effect of strengthening the Phillies rotation by moving Brett Myers from closer to #2 in the rotation. Myers & Hamels presents the Phillies foes with a deeper, more dangerous rotation and Lidge gives the Phillies an effective closer, something they have really lacked since Billy Wagner left.

The ’08 Phillies are every bit as strong as the Mets and this ought to be an exciting pennant race.

3. How do you like Brad Lidge as your closer and Brett Myers back in the rotation?

See above!

Yes, the addition of Lidge helps the Phillies by improving the bullpen and the rotation. If Lidge can recapture the magic of 2004 and 2005, the Phillies will be very strong because Brett Myers posted impressive numbers as a starter with the Phillies in 2005 and 2006. Teaming Myers with Hamels gives the Phillies a formidable 1-2 punch.

4. What’s your take on the way the Phillies have handled Ryan Howard’s contract negotiations the last two years? Do you think they should lock him down long-term — and is that possible?

The Phillies need to tread lightly in their negotiations with Howard. The team is really in dangerous territory, having so many young players (e.g., Cole Hamels) who might want raises if the Phillies move now to lock in Howard to a long-term deal. That said, the Phillies need Howard’s bat in the lineup because his ability to clobber 50-60 home runs gives the Phillies a major weapon in the heart of their order.

Generally I think the team has handled itself well with Howard, though you do have to wonder if they might have been better off conceding defeat on the arbitration hearing and building up some goodwill with Howard. However, the Phillies probably can’t lock Howard into a long-term deal because teams like the Mets and Yankees and Red Sox have the financial resources that the Phillies don’t and have attractive media markets that can make Howard into a star on the order of Derek Jeter or A-Rod. Ryan Howard knows he can demand $18-20 mil on the open market and that is probably more than the Phillies want to pay.

My guess is that Ryan Howard’s days on the team are numbered.

5. What one individual is most important to the Phillies’ success in 2008?

Chase Utley was on track to win the 2007 MVP award before a pitch hit his hand and broke it, sidelining him for a month. Utley will be the vital link for the Phillies in 2008, one of the strongest bats in the N.L. (and a serious contender to win the triple crown), a defensive standout at a vital position, a real team leader.

The Phillies will go as far as Utley can carry them.


6. What is the key to the Phillies taking the series at Shea this week?

Pat Burrell has traditionally eaten Mets pitching alive (.921 career OPS vs. the Mets and 41 home runs and 102 RBI in 134 games) and is off to a hot start this season (as I write this Burrell has hit his third home run of the season and has six extra-base hits). If Burrell can continue his hot start and help carry the Phillies offense with Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins off to slow starts, the Phillies will have the firepower to push through the Mets in a series where they won’t have to deal with Santana.

Interesting responses from Michael — particularly regarding Chase Utley. I would have guessed he’d say Cole Hamels. And we were under the impression that Jimmy Rollins carried the team (LOL).

Thanks again to Michael, and be sure to check out A Citizen’s Blog for more “inside info” on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Posted in Around the Blogs, Inside Looks, Series Previews | 6 Comments

Where Is the Wheel Play?

Posted on April 7, 2008 by Joe Janish

Big WheelHey Willie, where is the wheel?

We’re not talking wagon wheel nor Big Wheels nor Stealer’s Wheel. Rather, we’re talking about the “wheel play” — an aggressive defensive maneuver against the sacrifice bunt.

Willie Randolph uses one defensive strategy and one only against the bunt with a man on second — the standard. In this standard or “straight” defense, the third baseman charges but is supposed to retreat to third if the pitcher fields the ball, as there is no one else covering the 3B bag. It’s a dumb play, for two reasons. First, because it can be a very tough read for the third baseman to make. Second, if you watch play from behind the plate you’ll see shortstop Jose Reyes standing around in no-man’s land with nothing to do but pick his nose.

Another way to defend a bunt with a man on second is to run the “wheel play”, which you’ve likely heard from Keith Hernandez a thousand times but haven’t seen executed in Willie Randolph’s tenure as manager.

It’s a fairly simple play: the third baseman and first baseman charge, the shortstop covers third and the second baseman covers first. It’s called the “wheel play” because the shortstop and third baseman look like they’re circling (sort of). The only times you don’t use the wheel play are: 1) you don’t have an athletic shortstop who can beat the runner to third; 2) if you believe the batter might be swinging; 3) you want to play it really safe and are conceding the runner’s advancement to third because you don’t think it’s going to be a one-run game.

In yesterday’s game, the Braves had a runner on second with none out and bunted, but the Mets — as usual — played the standard and safe defense. David Wright mis-read the bunt and didn’t cover third, which was too bad because Johan Santana jumped on the bunt immediately and could have thrown out Mark Kotsay going to third. But you can’t blame David for the mis-read, as the play is designed to get the batter and allow the lead runner to take third base. As it turned out, Yunel Escobar hit a double to score Kotsay with the first run of the game. At the time, it was a scoreless game, and the Mets bats were clearly asleep against Braves ace John Smoltz. In other words, it was an ideal situation to be more aggressive about getting the lead runner.

There’s another issue with not using the wheel play, and I’m amazed no one has taken advantage of it yet. The bunting team can fake the bunt to draw the third baseman in, and then have the runner on second steal third easily, as the base will be unoccupied. Look for the Braves to pull that one on the Mets later in the season.

I’m not saying the Mets should always run the wheel play on a bunt with a man on second, but I am saying it’s something that should be considered at least once in a while. The Mets have the athleticism and intelligence to pull it off, so there’s every reason to “get it in the mix”, as Willie likes to say.

Posted in News Notes Rumors | 2 Comments

Mets Game 5: Loss to Braves

Posted on April 6, 2008 by Joe Janish

Braves 3 Mets 1

It’s going to be a long year, Mets fans.

Johan Santana pitched seven spectacular innings, and had the only extra-base hit of the game for the Mets. Unfortunately, this isn’t little league, and the Mets lost a heartbreaker.

Santana gave up just one run on seven hits and no walks and never was in real trouble. Scary thing is, he didn’t have his best stuff.

However, the Mets can’t hit — plain and simple. They looked terrible against John Smoltz, who was lifted after the fifth because of his sore shoulder, and did nothing against four Braves relievers. The only time they threatened — and scored — was in the ninth inning against “closer” Rafael Soriano. Too little, too late.

It was a 1-1 game until the eighth, when Aaron Heilman came on in relief of Santana and gave up a two-run homer to Mark Teixeira. Don’t blame the game on Aaron, however — this is 2008, not 1968, and you have to score runs to win ballgames.

Notes

Nice how Carlos Delgado strokes hits with no one on base. He’s hitting the lightest .300 I’ve seen in a long time.

Amazing … Aaron Heilman fools Mairk Teixeira with a changeup, Teixeira one-hands it into the seats. Never mind Ron Darling’s nonsense that the pitch was up — Teixeira was FOOLED, was way out in front, and still jerked it over the fence. The height of the pitch made little difference, because Teixeira’s swing plane was similar to a golf drive.

I like batters being patient when behind late in the game, but what the heck is Carlos Beltran looking at in the ninth inning? Soriano struck him out twice in that at-bat.

If the defense did not include a first baseman, Brian Schneider would be batting .800. I think he grounds out to the right side every time up.

Kevin Burkhardt in that yellow blazer reminds me of the days of Don Drysdale, Joe Garagiola, Keith Jackson, and Howard Cosell on ABC in the 1970s.

Next Game

Day off tomorrow, so we can stew for another 24 hours. The Mets’ home opener against the Phillies takes place on Tuesday at 1:10 PM. Oliver Perez starts against Jamie Moyer. Coverage is on SNY and XM 183.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 11 Comments

Smoltz To Start

Posted on April 5, 2008 by Joe Janish

Braves manager Bobby Cox has chosen to flip-flop his starters, giving ace John Smoltz his first start of the year against the Mets in Sunday afternoon’s ballgame.

Cox claims he wants Smoltz — who has been suffering from tightness in the back of his shoulder all spring — to make his first start in warm, balmy Atlanta rather than in chilly Colorado on Monday.

Yeah, right. Whatever, dude. I’m sure it has nothing to do with Johan Santana starting for the Mets, and that the Mets’ lineup is certain to wake up against the soft tossing of Tommy Glavine.

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