Don’t Blame Willie

Many of you have already seen my article on Gotham Baseball Magazine titled “Why Willie Gets a Pass”. In short, I explain that I can’t put 100% blame on Willie Randolph for the way he (mis)handled the Mets bullpen last year, due to the fact that he learned bullpen management prior to PED testing — and in my opinion, PEDs had something to do with effective relief pitching.

If you agree, disagree, or have something to add, please post your comments here, or discuss the article in the Gotham Mets Forum.

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A RH Hitter To Consider

Andy Marte of the IndiansIt would be a risky gamble, but it could pay off — big time.

Only two years ago, Andy Marte was one of, if not THE, top prospect in all of baseball. The Braves shipped him to the Red Sox for All-Star shortstop Edgar Renteria, and the Bosox flipped him to the Indians (along with Kelly Shoppach and Guillermo Mota) for Coco Crisp, David Riske, and Josh Bard.

However, he has struggled at advanced levels, batting only in the .260s in AAA and barely above the Mendoza Line in the bigs. The Indians have to keep him on the 25-man roster when spring training breaks, or place him on waivers because he is out of options.

To make matters worse for Cleveland, Marte came into camp out of shape and has been struggling. There is a very good chance that he will not truly earn a spot on the big league roster by the end of March. He might be carried regardless, because if he isn’t, he’ll be seen as a flop.

A few things intrigue me about Marte. First, he was considered a better prospect than Lastings Milledge a year ago. Second, he’s only 24 and therefore has time to turn around — maybe moving him to AAA as a 21-year-old was too soon. Third, the Tribe has been working him out at both first base and the outfield in an effort to make him more valuable off the bench. My, my … couldn’t the Mets use a righthanded-hitting first baseman / outfielder?

It’s possible that Marte will never live up to the extraordinary expectations thrown his way a few years ago — it wouldn’t be the first time a “can’t-miss” prospect missed. But the Indians have their hands tied with him, and really don’t have a place for him on the ML roster. In contrast, the Mets need a player exactly like Marte — both right now and next year. If Marte can get back on track, he could be the ideal “heir apparent” to the first base job that Carlos Delgado will be leaving behind after this season.

This from Dayton Moore, in a quote from Baseball America in 2006:

“Andy profiles as a guy who has the ability to hit in the middle of the lineup of a championship major league team. He has all the ingredients to be a special hitter.”

Marte’s dropoff is due to a mechanical flaw — whereas he used to have a solid, level, line-drive swing, he fell into the bad habit of dropping his shoulder and pulling off pitches after joining the Indians organization. He used to do things “correctly”, so in my mind he can be fixed. I haven’t seen him this spring, so have no idea if he’s already on his way to better mechanics.

The risk, of course, is that Marte may never find his “old” swing, could indeed be a flop, and would have to be kept on the 25-man roster all year. For a team planning to go to the postseason, they have to have all 25 man contributing. Tough call, but if Marte pans out, the Mets could have a circa 1986 Kevin Mitchell type of player, who can come off the bench in 2008 and take over a starting position in the lineup for many years to come. And considering the Tribe’s tough circumstances, the cost could be relatively low.

Posted in Spring Training 08 | 15 Comments

Say Goodbye to the Kids

The first wave of cuts has occurred in Mets camp. The following players have been optioned to minor league camp for “reassignment”:

LHP Adam Bostick
RHP Robert Parnell
RHP Eddie Kunz
RHP Juan Padilla
RHP Andy Cavazos
RHP Brant Rustich
RHP Ivan Maldonado
LHP Jonathan Niese
LHP Ryan Cullen
C Salomon Manriquez
C Mike Nickeas
INF Anderson Machado
OF Ben Johnson

No big surprises here, though I thought they might have kept Niese and Kunz around a bit longer — Niese especially because the fifth starter spot is up in the air and he looked great in his start last Saturday vs. the Dodgers. Kunz will be back, eventually; he’s simply caught in a numbers game. There are too many relief arms as it is, and the Mets need to get as many reps as possible to the older guys, who don’t have options.

Juan Padilla’s velocity is only in the low to mid-80s, from my estimate, and wasn’t expected to be fully ready until at least May. Same with Ben Johnson, who only started jogging in February after tearing ligaments in, and breaking his ankle last August. I can tell you from first-hand experience that it can take up to a year, or more, to recover from such an injury (depending on the severity). Tough break (pardon the pun) for Johnson, who would have had a golden opportunity to win a spot this spring.

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Totally Stoked

Brian Stokes pitching for the Mets in Port St. LucieWhen the Mets announced the purchase of Brian Stokes from Tampa Bay at the end of November, it was hard to get excited. After all, there were whispers then that Johan Santana was available, plus the Mets were showing no interest at all in any of the big-name free agents on the market. Heck, the biggest news back then was that Yorvit Torrealba would be the Mets catcher in 2008 (ouch), then wouldn’t be, and Johnny Estrada would be instead (how things change).

It didn’t help that the 28-year-old Stokes was hardly a candidate for the Mets bullpen. In his first full season in the big leagues, he sported a 7.07 ERA in 59 games, with a 1.84 WHIP. Through 62 innings, he struck out only 35 and gave up 90 hits, including 11 homeruns. While a switch to the NL can help a pitcher, it doesn’t have THAT much of an effect on an ERA above 7; shave an unrealistic two runs off and it’s still far from acceptable. In fact, if you looked strictly at the numbers, it was hard to understand why the Mets would bother with Brian Stokes.

However, Stokes is having a nice spring thus far. In four innings over four appearances, he’s given up one hit, no walks, no runs, and struck out two. Yes, it’s early, and yes, it’s a small sample. But it’s encouraging. In contrast, this time last year the Mets were considering Jon Adkins for the bullpen, and it was clear from the outset that Adkins would struggle mightily in retiring big leaguers. Stokes, so far, looks OK — he’s throwing lots of strikes, working quickly, and showing both a sharp overhand curve and a splitfinger changeup with a nice downward break. His velocity is nothing to write home about, but he picks his spots to rear back and surprise a hitter with an occasional 92-MPH offering.

Will he make the squad? Who knows, but at least he’s forcing the other bullpen candidates to compete — and competition is a good thing.

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Pelfrey’s Curveball

Mike Pelfrey pitching for the MetsSo what was that pitch Mike Pelfrey was throwing in today’s split-squad game against the Marlins?

Pelfrey was definitely throwing a good, hard sinker, on both sides of the plate. He might have thrown a changeup here and there but I couldn’t tell because the CW11 radar gun was way off.

And then there was that “breaking pitch”.

Supposedly, Pelfrey ditched his curveball last spring, per the wisdom of Rick Peterson. He’d concentrate on the slider instead. We haven’t heard anything contrary to that dictum since.

Yet, I saw overhand curves being thrown by Pelfrey today.

Maybe it was the wind. Maybe my eyes were deceiving me. Or maybe Pelfrey is throwing the curveball again. Or, maybe he thinks he’s throwing a slider but it’s actually a curve.

By definition, a slider should resemble a fastball in speed and appearance, but dart slightly down and sideways, and out of the strike zone at the last millisecond. The “break” of the ball — its change in path from a straight line — should be measurable in inches. Five to ten inches is about right. If it stays in the strikezone, then it’s called a “flat” slider because it goes only sideways and not down.

In contrast, a curveball is thrown from a higher plane and at a slower speed than a fastball. It should break down sharply from that higher plane and into the strike zone. The total break should be a foot (12″) or more. A “12-to-6” curve is the ideal, and is called that because if you imagined a clock face behind the path of the ball, you’d see it start at 12 and break straight down to 6. Aaron Sele threw such a curve, as did Dwight Gooden; you don’t see many pitchers throw them these days. Most curves are more “11-to-5” or “1-to-7”, though they’re never called that.

What I saw today from Pelfrey on occasion was a “breaking pitch” that was starting at a higher plane and dropping into the strike zone — and was significantly slower than his fastball. If he can do this on purpose, and more often, then this is good news, because to be successful at the Major League level he MUST change speeds and must be able to throw something other than the fastball for non-swinging strikes. A curveball, rather than a flat slider, is ideal (Jorge Sosa flattens his slider to get it into the strike zone, and as a result many of those pitches end up over fences).

To understand why it’s so important for Pelfrey to throw a curveball (or a changeup) for strikes, you need only have watched his outing today. His first time through the lineup, he pitched well, spotting the fastball all around the zone and mixing in that inconsistent breaking pitch. The second time through the lineup, however, the batters were sitting on the fastball — waiting for it, and jumping all over it. The batters knew that Pelfrey wasn’t throwing a changeup and were usually able to recognize and lay off the hard-breaking slider. So they timed his fastball and hacked at it. In other words, the batters had little to think or guess about.

If Pelfrey could have dropped a few more of those breaking pitches — the ones with the slower, downward break — into the strike zone early in counts, then the batters would have more to think about. They wouldn’t have the luxury of sitting on the fastball.

Over and over (and over) you probably heard Keith Hernandez saying Pelfrey’s fastball was up in the zone and/or getting too much of the plate. There was some credence to Keith’s analysis, but what Keith was pointing out is really a symptom and not the actual problem. If Pelfrey were able get a true curveball or a good changeup over the plate, then he’d be able to “get away” with occasional poor location. Watch Johan Santana or Pedro Martinez and you’ll see what I mean. With either of those pitchers, the batter has more to worry about — particularly with timing. If a pitcher can keep a batter “off balance”, he can be less perfect with location. It’s much easier for a batter to adjust to a change in location than a change in timing. Because Pelfrey is not able to abrupt the batter’s timing, his location has to be absolutely perfect.

Maybe Mike Pelfrey can “accidentally” throw more curveballs. If he did, he would not only win the fifth starter spot but likely win 10-12 games this year.

Posted in Pitching Staff, Spring Training 08 | 3 Comments

Righthanded Hitter Found

Last March — the 28th, to be exact — I thought Jorge Cantu might be made available by the then-Devil Rays, and figured he’d be a perfect fit for the Mets. At the time, the Mets’ second base position was shaky, and Cantu had a big bat.

A week later, I brought up the idea again.

By May, Cantu became an obsession to me, as he was rumored to be dealt by the Devil Rays.

Right before the trading deadline in July, I was jealous that the Reds stole Cantu in return for the equivalent of a bag of balls.

In December, I mentioned that Cantu was again available, as a free agent, and would be an ideal guy to invite to spring training.

Most recently, I reported that Cantu signed with the Fish, and it probably made sense since he would get a chance to fight for a starting 3B spot.

Cantu, by the way, was the guy who raked all day for the Marlins. He also happens to be a strong righthanded hitter who can play 1B, 2B, and 3B. He played plenty of shortstop in the minors, and I’d guess he’s a strong enough athlete to learn to play the outfield if necessary.

The Mets, of course, don’t need a righthanded slugger who can play all those positions … do they?

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Poor Subject of Conversation

During the CW11 telecast of the Mets-Marlins game, announcers Keith Hernandez and Kevin Burkhardt spent several minutes discussing the Florida Marlins. Specifically, the “fact” that the Marlins would be unable to compete this year, how they couldn’t hold on to their best players, how they couldn’t have a good team because of their stadium, how losing Miguel Cabrera meant their offense would struggle mightily, etc., etc.

Listening to all this banter on how poor the Marlins were and how their offense stunk, my wife pointed out that the score was Marlins 7, Mets 1.

Yeah, I know it was a spring training split-squad game, but when your team is getting clobbered, it’s not the right time to say the opposition stinks.

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Show Me a Starter

In his latest bid to take claim of the fifth starter spot, Mike Pelfrey didn’t fare too well. The man who relieved him, however, didn’t look so bad.

Scott Schoeneweis came into a bases loaded situation and struck out Mike Jacobs, gave up a bomb to Jorge Cantu to clear the bases, then got the final out of the inning.

Here’s a crazy idea: give The Show a shot at the fifth starter spot. He began his career as a starter, and started 19 games as recently as 2004. He’s become more of a junkballer since (getting off PEDs and) losing 5 or so MPH from his fastball, and as a result works harder on changing speeds and hitting spots. If the Mets can’t trade him for somebody decent, why not see what he can do as a starter? Pelfrey certainly isn’t the answer, and who knows when we’ll see El Duque.

Before you scream “but he can’t pitch to righthanded batters”, let me tell you that I don’t care much for that fact, nor platoon splits in particular. Crazy? Consider the following:

Tom Glavine, 2007 (13-8): RH batters hit .266; LH batters hit .326

Kenny Rogers, 2006 (17-8): RH batters hit .268; LH batters hit .200

Jamie Moyer, 2007 (14-12): RH batters hit .279; LH batters hit .309

Scott Schoeneweis, 2007: RH batters hit .316 ; LH batters hit .204

Throwing it out there … if we end up stuck with him, maybe Scott Schoeneweis could be a candidate as a spot starter.

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