Veteran Bats Moving Fast

Only a few days ago we discussed various possibilities for the Mets’ bench, focusing on righthanded batters who ideally play 1B, OF, and/or catcher.

Since then, several veterans have been scooped up, including many mentioned here (by me and you). Hat tip to Walnutz on some of these.

Herewith a roundup of recent last-minute signings and ST invites:

Mike Sweeney (Athletics)
Once again Billy Beane grabs a vet with an excellent bat on the cheap. Sweeney accepted a minor league deal with an ST invite and the “opportunity” to back up Jack Cust, Dan Johnson, and Daric Barton at DH / 1B. Looking at that situation, maybe he would have been OK backing up Carlos Delgado and putting on the catcher’s gear once in a while for a team focused on the postseason. Who knows, Delgado may slump and the Mets may decide to overbuy at the trading deadline for Sweeney.

Tony Clark (Padres)
Clark returns to his home in San Diego for $900K and remains in the NL West, a division he knows well. He was too tall for the Mets anyway.

Craig Wilson (Reds)
The OF/C struggled with the bat the last two years due to injury, but claims he’s now healthy. He accepted a minor league deal with ST invite. According to Ken Rosenthal:

The Mets, looking for an inexpensive, right-handed hitting outfielder, considered free agent Craig Wilson before he signed a minor-league contract with the Reds.

The team does not believe Shannon Stewart or Kevin Mench would provide adequate insurance if Moises Alou were injured — Stewart has a below-average arm and Mench is a below-average defender.

Mench is expected to sign a minor-league deal with the Rangers.

Chris Woodward (Yankees)
The Yanks invite the hairless utlityman to spring training. There wasn’t any talk of him returning to Shea, but his hard play and strong fundamentals made him something of a fan favorite while with the Mets, so thought I’d mention it.

Eric Hinske (Rays)
Hinske took an ST invite to fight for a spot on the Tampa Bay roster. He was a lefty bat and strikes out a lot so not much interest for the Mets, but worth noting.


Juan Gonzalez
(Cardinals)
Yes, THAT Juan Gonzalez. Glad the Mets didn’t so much as kick the tires on this one.

Sean Casey (Red Sox)
Again, a lefthanded bat, but worth noting. He’s a good fit for the Bosox.

Pitchers Picked Up

Victor Zambrano (Rockies)
Colorado pitching coach Bob Apodaca (former Met as well) says he can fix this guy in NINE minutes.

Mike Lincoln (Reds)
This guy had a couple of good years as a middle reliever, then his ERA doubled and hasn’t been seen in the bigs since 2004.

Brendan Donnelly
(Indians)
Once a lights-out setup man, Donnelly had Tommy John surgery this past August and was named in the Mitchell Report but still found an ST invite. Shows you how desperate teams are to find bullpen help.

Sean Burnett
(Pirates)
The Bucs DFA’d Burnett, no one claimed him, and they re-signed him to a minor league deal. I still think he would have been worth stashing in AAA, but we’ll see what he does this spring.

Josh Towers (Rockies)
Glad he signed with the Rockies because it means he didn’t sign with the Mets. In the mold of Adam Eaton / Josh Fogg, except he’s not even that good.

Matt DeSalvo (Braves)
Nothing interesting here, other than he was with the Yanks so you probably heard of him.

Mike Maroth (Royals)
At first glance, I thought he might be a good choice for AAA depth, but he’s most likely the lefthanded version of Brian Lawrence — except he throws a bit slower.

Scott Elarton (Indians)
The eternal enigma, Elarton gives the Indians a chance to look stupid.

If you are interested, here are a few of the free agents still waiting for an ST invite:

– Sammy Sosa
– Antonio Alfonseca
– Bartolo Colon
– Armando Benitez
– Tony Batista
– Kris Benson
– Russell Branyan
– Shawn Chacon
– Jeff Cirillo
– Kyle Lohse
– Shawn Green
– Livan Hernandez
– Jason Tyner
– Mike Piazza
– Aaron Sele
– Jeff Weaver
– David Wells

There are others … but the names don’t get much prettier.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | 6 Comments

Mets Top Prospects

Almost immediately after the Johan Santana trade — which instantly removed many of the Mets’ best youngsters — one of our MetsToday loyalists (Nick A.) suggested I write a post about the Mets “new” list of top ten prospects.

By the time I figured out who that top ten would be, a much more reliable source on subject — Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus — beat me to it (you snooze, you lose).

So instead, I’ll list my top ten most intriguing (but possibly unknown) prospects to watch in 2008. (BTW, you will not see Fernando Martinez on the list, because everyone already knows all about him.)

1. Brant Rustich, RHP, age 22
While most of the pundits talk about Eddie Kunz (below), so far Brant Rustich has put up better numbers as a pro. The 6’6″ righthander posted a combined 1.57 ERA, with 21 Ks and only 2 BBs in 23 innings through two stops at the low A-level last year, and then showed promise in the Hawaii fall league. His fastball touches 95, and is mixed with a MLB average slider. The only reason the Mets were able to steal him with the 93rd pick in the draft was because he struggled in his final year at UCLA after undergoing finger ligament surgery. It appears as though he’s back to 100%, and might have a chance to get a serious look during spring training.

2. Eddie Kunz, RHP, age 21
After being drafted last June, many pundits predicted Kunz to be this year’s Joe Smith — a guy who could jump right into the Mets’ bullpen in 2008. In fact, the Mets supposedly chose the former OSU closer with exactly that idea in mind. However, he took a while to get started in pro ball — he didn’t sign until late July — and only pitched 12 unimpressive professional innings (he walked eight). He was assigned to the Arizona Fall League and didn’t fare much better, allowing two homers, 12 runs, 15 hits, and 8 walks in only 10 innings. However, the Mets like his heavy sinker and slider, both thrown from a low three-quarter delivery, and see him as the heir apparent to Billy Wagner. He could get an extended look in spring training.


3. Scott Moviel, LHP, age 19

This 6’11”, 245-lb. man-child struck out 37 and walked only 11 in 40 innings in the Gulf Coast League last summer, riding a fastball that touched 95. His height, velocity, and lefthandedness might draw comparisons to Randy Johnson, but he has a more overhand delivery with less deception than Johnson. If there’s anything bothersome about Moviel, it’s how hittable he was — 45 hits allowed in those 40 frames. But he doesn’t turn 20 until May, and could climb fast depending on how quickly he develops secondary pitches.

4. Nathan Vineyard, LHP, age 19

Other than his age and lefthandedness, there’s nothing particularly exciting about Vineyard. However, he is very polished for his age, with command of three pitches and a consistent delivery. Think of him as the lefty Brian Bannister, and watch him rise through the ranks over the next few years.

5. Francisco Pena, catcher, age 18
This is the son of former Gold Glove catcher Tony Pena. Francisco Pena was force-fed into A ball last year as a 17-year-old, and struggled mightily — but what 17-year-old Dominican wouldn’t? He’s already 6’3″, 230 lbs., and has excellent raw skills behind the plate. If he can show progress over his initial pro campaign, there’s every reason to believe he’ll be at CitiField by the time he’s of legal drinking age.

6. Ruben Tejada, SS, age 18
Another 17-year-old prodigy last year, Tejada torched the Venezuelan Summer League to the tune of .364, then fared well with a .283 average in 121 ABs in the Gulf Coast League. Some eye-popping numbers: a .434 OBP, .857 OPS, 18 SBs, and 38 BB vs. 35 Ks in 241 combined ABs at the two levels. Did I mention this Panamanian did all that as a 17-year-old? If he keeps up these kinds of numbers he may compare to another SS named Tejada (no relation).

7. Lucas Duda, 1B, 22 years old
A 6’4″, 225-lb. first baseman with a long but sweet lefty swing, Duda projects to be a slugger in the mold of a Richie Sexson or Adam Dunn. His defense is less than adequate, so his future may be as an AL DH. He hit .299 at Brooklyn last year with an .859 OPS. Mets brass will be watching him closely as he ascends to high A ball in 2008.

8. Nick Carr, RHP, 20 years old

Few talk about this righthander, mostly because all the talk of young Mets pitching prospects surrounds Kunz, Vineyard, and Moviel. However, Carr is a nasty competitor along the lines of Rob Dibble. He struck out 74 in 61 innings with the Cyclones last year, holding opponents to a paltry .224 batting average. He continued to overpower hitters in the Hawaiian fall league, striking out 10 in 12 IP and posting a respectable 3.50 ERA — though he did also walk 10. Though he was used as a starter last season, he looks to me like a future middle reliever / setup man. He could rise quickly.

9. Tobi Stoner, RHP, 23 years old

Personally, I don’t know enough about Stoner to make a good analysis of him, and have never seen him pitch. However, my pal Matt “The Stat” Himelfarb talks highly of Stoner so he has to be on this list. Hopefully Matt will notice this post and add his comments below. If not for Matt I might have thought Tobi Stoner was a character’s name in “Fast Times At Ridgemont High”.

10. Dylan Owen, RHP 21 years old
This is another guy whom I haven’t seen pitch but I really like his story. He was the Division II pitcher of the year, but no one cares about D2 so the 5’11”, 185-pounder dropped to the 633rd pick in the ’07 draft. In other words, he had “no prospect” written all over him. So what does he do? He leads the NY-Penn League in everything, going 9-1 with a 1.49 ERA, 69 Ks, only 12 BB in 72 IP and holding batters to a .192 average. However, because his fastball hums just below 90 MPH, his secondary stuff is judged as mediocre, and he’s under six feet tall, no one is counting on him to repeat those numbers at higher levels. Maybe “they” are right, but Dylan Owen looks to me like the type of guy motivated to prove everyone wrong. I’m rooting for him.

Conclusion

There were a number of other guys I could have put on this list, but kept the list at ten because everyone likes top tens. For example, Nick Evans, Dan Murphy, Wilmer Flores, Bobby Parnell, Sean McCraw, and Jon Niese are just a few of many other prospects in the organization catching the eyes of scouts. While the Mets cupboard of near-MLB-ready prospects may seem bare after the Santana deal, the shelves could get full quickly after some strong, smart drafts over the past two years. For example, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moviel, Rustich, Kunz, and Vineyard take big steps in 2008 — much the same way the Yankees had pitching prospects such as Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Philip Hughes suddenly emerge. And my Nick Carr comparison to Rob Dibble was no joke — that dude is mean, and can bring the heat. Two years from now, the organization may be brimming with prospects, and we could be laughing at all the concern we had about the Santana deal.

Have a favorite intriguing prospect not covered here? Comment about him (or them) below.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | 4 Comments

Foulke Off the Market

Interestingly, Keith Foulke signed with the Oakland Athletics.

I say interestingly because all previous reports had pinpointed him as a Cleveland Indian — the team he retired from last spring. Purportedly, Foulke’s home was in the Cleveland area and that was the reason he was going to give it another shot with the Indians. As a result, I’d completely wrote him off as a free agent candidate for the Mets — yet, the Mets reportedly made an offer last month after Foulke pitched in front of 20 teams.

The A’s signed him to a one-year deal worth $750K (bonuses can get him to $1.25M) — sounds pretty cheap to me for a guy who has handled the pressure of late-inning relief. His health, of course, is the biggest issue; he had minor elbow surgery in September. However, scouts say he was throwing in the mid-80s with “impeccable control and deception” during last month’s workout. Since Foulke is a changeup artist, the seemingly low velocity is not as much of a concern as the health of his arm (see: Glavine, Tom; Martinez, Petey).

It’s possible the Mets didn’t come close to the dollars or guarantee the A’s did, and further possible that the Mets’ scouts weren’t impressed enough to recommend a MLB deal. Personally, I would not have minded one bit if the Mets signed him to a deal similar to what he received from the A’s — it’s a low risk, high-reward signing. Sure, Foulke may turn out to be a bust, but remember the Mets made a high-risk, low-reward signing last winter when they locked up Scott Schoeneweis for three years (or was it the other way around?).

Since the Athletics are going through a complete overhaul, one would guess that Billy Beane is gambling on Foulke to return to form, and have a really nice trading chip for more young prospects come July. By then, the Mets might have a need for a middle or setup reliever — but likely won’t have the young prospects necessary to pry away anyone of value. Which makes me think the Mets are still in the hunt for Freddy Garcia — a guy who can’t help until late season, but could turn out to be just as good as anyone available at the end of July.

A sidenote to the Foulke signing: to make room on the 40-man roster, the Athletics DFA’d first baseman Wes Bankston.

Bankston is a long and lanky 24-year-old who hit only .238 in AAA last year — but don’t be fooled by those numbers. He was once a “Top Ten” prospect in the Tampa Bay organization, and originally a right fielder with a gun for an arm. Because the Devil Rays had fleets of gifted outfielders, he was switched to 1B (and also played some 3B) and put up good power numbers at all levels before failing miserably in 2007. At least some of his problems were injury-related, as he struggled with a bad knee injury for most of the year. In fact he’s been stung with a variety of injuries since 2003, and perhaps has yet to realize his full potential. After his poor 2007 showing, the Rays put him on waivers after the season, the Royals picked him up then DFA’s him in late November and Billy Beane jumped on him. This is the part of the story that makes one think Bankston might be worth adding to the Mets’ 40-man roster. Consider that when Beane grabbed Bankston, he already had Nick Swisher, Dan Johnson, and Daric Barton under wraps, not to mention Jack Cust. On the one hand, all but Swisher were lefthanded batters, so maybe Beane added Bankston because of his righthanded stick. But really, how many first baseman / DHs does a team need? (It’s not like second base, where half a dozen is not enough.) In short, the A’s scouting staff saw something special in Bankston, and Beane thought enough of him to add to his 40-man — and the A’s have a pretty strong track record of uncovering other team’s “garbage” (i.e., Cust, Lenny DiNardo, Chad Gaudin, Frank Thomas, Scott Hatteberg). Maybe it makes sense to use the A’s knowledge and take a flyer.

With the Mets’ empty space on the 40-man roster and their need for a young, preferably RH-hitting first baseman to place in AAA as insurance behind Carlos Delgado, Bankston could be a perfect fit. If not, I’ll continue to wait for the Rangers to release Jason Botts (aka, the next Adam Dunn).

UPDATE: more on Bankston, from Scout.com:

Bankston was picked up on waivers by the A’s this off-season and is on the team’s 40-man roster. He is a reclamation project of sorts, in some ways similar to Jason Stokes, a first baseman the A’s picked up from the Florida Marlins last season. Like Stokes, Bankston was once one of the top prospects in his organization (in Bankston’s case, Tampa Bay). Unlike Stokes, Bankston has been relatively healthy throughout his career. Where his career has faced impediments, however, has been in the field, as the Rays chose to move Bankston all over the field in an attempt to find a place for him at the major-league level. He began his career as an outfielder, was shifted to first base in his third season, then to third base in his fifth season, and back to first last year. Those positional shifts have, at times, seemed to disrupt Bankston, especially the move to third base, which, by all accounts, was a disaster.

Bankston’s best season came in 2004 in the Low-A South Atlantic League, where he hit 23 homers and drove-in 101 runs. In 2007, he struggled badly at the plate at Triple-A Durham, setting career-lows in BA (.238) and OBP (.282). The A’s believe he is closer to the hitter who batted .297 with Durham in 2006 than the 2007 version. At his best, Bankston is a hitter with good plate coverage, a decent eye and power to all fields. The A’s are hopeful that that is the hitter who emerges this spring in camp. He was a high school football player and still has that solid build. Bankston is likely to start the season with Triple-A Sacramento, and if he plays well and the A’s trade Dan Johnson, he could be called on to be a back-up first baseman/right-handed pinch-hitter for the A’s this season. He just turned 24 this November, so despite having six minor league seasons under his belt, he is still relatively young.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | Comments Off on Foulke Off the Market

Free Agents Still Out There

We have Johan Santana in orange and blue, but there are still some fairly prominent pitchers (or at least, prominent names) out there ready for the taking.

In particular:

– Livan Hernandez
– Kyle Lohse
– Freddy Garcia
– Bartolo Colon
– Shawn Chacon
– Byung-Hyun Kim
– Ron Villone
– Odalis Perez

Livan looks to be headed to the Nats, so he’ll have to wait at least another year to re-unite with half-brother Orlando. Lohse could be a nice fit as a reliever, but he’s holding out for starter status. Chacon might not be worth signing to an MLB contract, since we’re not sure he’ll be better than, say, Joe Smith or Matt Wise. Still, there’s that Aaron Sele / Darren Oliver role that may or may not be filled by Jorge Sosa. Villone, Kim, and Perez could all be brought in on minor league deals. I still like the idea of signing Garcia for end of the year / 2009 insurance.

In addition, these veteran bats are still out there:

– Ryan Klesko
– Kevin Mench
– Mike Piazza
– Reggie Sanders
– Preston Wilson
– Mike Sweeney
– Kenny Lofton
– Shawn Green
– Tony Clark

Sweeney would be a sweet pickup if he doesn’t mind playing second fiddle to Carlos Delgado. It likely will never happen, but a Sweeney/Delgado platoon would be pretty impressive. Plus, Sweeney can don the catcher’s gear in a pinch. Other than my Mike Sweeney fantasy, Mench appears to be an ideal fit, as has been stated by many of you here. Clark or Sanders might be good choices, though with so little roster room we don’t want to get caught into another Julio Franco situation.

While Omar Minaya has stated that the Mets are set to go into spring training — presumably meaning no more acquisitions will be made before pitchers and catchers report next week — let’s pretend he’s still open to signing a veteran or two, either to a minor or major league deal. Who do you think could help, from the lot that is still available? (BTW, the above list is incomplete, so feel free to add on.)

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | 16 Comments

Live From Mickey Mantle’s

Last week Gotham Baseball Magazine launched their radio program, “Live from Mickey Mantle’s”, on BlogTalkRadio. There were some technical difficulties, as is to be expected the first time out — especially when using cutting edge technology such as internet radio. But overall it was a strong first show and hosts Mark Healey and Mike Silva are going at it again tonight at 6pm.

If you get a chance, be sure to tune in as they have an interesting show planned. Among the guests include the first DH in MLB history, Ron Blomberg, who will talk about his book “Designated Hebrew” (that’s NOT a joke, it’s a real book and Ron wrote it with help from longtime baseball writer Dan Schlossberg). In addition, Marty Appel will be talking about HIS upcoming book about former Yankee great Thurman Munson — who some of you know is my all-time favorite player (how could a diehard Mets fan also love a Yankee? if you never saw Thurm play then you wouldn’t understand).

The show will be broadcast live at Mickey Mantle’s Restaurant (that’s where they get the name!) at 6pm on BlogTalkRadio. But if you can’t tune in then, no biggie — you can download the show anytime afterward and listen to it at your leisure (that’s what I usually do).

Posted in Around the Blogs | Comments Off on Live From Mickey Mantle’s

Down On Pedro

So there’s supposedly a video of Pedro Martinez and Juan Marichal involved in a cockfight in the Dominican Republic. I haven’t seen it, and don’t want to. I’ve been struggling with the issue all day, because on the one hand I’ve truly enjoyed rooting for Pedro since he became a Met but I also hold animal rights in high regard. Anyone who has visited this site for a while probably knows how I feel about animals.

And while I don’t want to make MetsToday a platform for animal rights — that’s not what the site is about — at the same time it’s impossible for me to address the issue. So I’ll simply go on record here and say I’m EXTREMELY disappointed in Pedro’s participation in a cockfight. While I understand that cockfighting is part of Dominican culture, that doesn’t make it right. The way I see it, animals don’t have a choice — unlike human boxers, who have the free will to decide whether or not to go into a ring and beat each others’ brains out. As human beings, with the ability to reason and no inherent need to force animals to kill each other, I see no logical reason to put roosters in a ring together. It serves no purpose other than to satisfy sick, selfish desires to witness violence and/or feel the thrill of winning dirty money.

If you see no problem with it, that’s your issue and I don’t want to hear about it — I find it abhorrently offensive, inhumane, and completely against our purpose as human beings on this planet. It’s bad enough that we’re so stupid as to kill each other with bullets and bombs — but to force animals into the same sick arena for temporary thrills is inexcusable. And yes I understand Darwin’s theory that the “only the strongest survive” and I do know that animals kill each other in nature. But there’s nothing “natural” about pitting two animals against each other in a ring while wild-eyed idiots scream at the top of their lungs, throw down filthy bills and drench their libidos with cheap whiskey.

As a result, it’s going to be hard for me to root for Pedro as passionately as I did in the past. While it’s true no one’s perfect, and certainly there are plenty of players who have committed violent crimes of equal or worse proportions (Elijah Dukes, Julio Lugo, Delmon Young, Brett Myers, etc.), it’s extremely bothersome to find out that one of “our own” is guilty of such misgivings. I’d be less disappointed if Pedro were included in the Mitchell Report, because at least he was doing something to himself, rather than being part of hurting someone else.

I’ve said my peace, and put my opinion “on record”. That’s all I wanted to do — bring some seriousness to an issue that too many people dismiss as irrelevant. My hope is that Pedro and/or the Mets understand that some of us find this kind of behavior unacceptable, and help spread the message that inflicting pain on other, vulnerable creatures is NOT cool. Such actions do nothing other than show how dispassionate, selfish, and ugly the human race can be.

Pitchers and catchers report in less than a week …

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | 3 Comments

Another Twins Perspective

A couple days ago, Seth Stohs gave us one Minnesota fan’s perspective on the Johan Santana trade. For me, one angle isn’t enough, so I reached out to Joshua Taylor of Taylor’s Twins Talk for a second opinion. And yes, we’re going to milk this trade for all its worth. After all, Omar Minaya made it clear that there won’t be any more changes to the Mets roster before pitchers and catchers report, so we’re running out of things to discuss before then!

Here is a Q&A I did with Joshua …

1. With Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Silva gone, do the Twins have a chance at the postseason in 2008?

I never say never, and the Twins will have an interesting mix of players in the lineup and in the rotation. Certainly, I don’t expect them to fall off the face of the Earth — I suspect that most teams won’t be particularly pleased to see them on the schedule. Unfortunately, the reality of the situation is that the Twins will be facing off against two very potent teams in the Tigers and Indians, and even if the Twins had kept everyone from last year and upgraded a couple of problem positions in addition to that, it probably wouldn’t have been enough. I’ll be rooting hard for the Twins all season, but any chance of making it to the playoffs is probably no more than about 5%.


2. Since your answer to #1 is less than “definitely”, when do you see the Twins contending again? Who are the keys to the resurgence, and what are the big “ifs”?

I’m pretty sure I’m stealing part of this answer from a national columnist, but I can’t remember who — nonetheless, I agree with it and so am repeating it. Part of the Twins resurgence will be based on the decline of the Tigers and Indians in a year or two. The Indians are likely to go through a payroll crunch and lose a couple of people (especially C.C. Sabathia), while a number of key Tigers are starting to get old. I think 2010, the year the new Twins ballpark will open, is a good guess as to when those two teams will start to come back to the pack, and I think the Twins will be poised to catch them. A rotation that looks very young now should have several very solid pitchers with a few years of experience under their belt, and the core elements of the Twins lineup (guys like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, and hopefully Carlos Gomez) will all still be around and in their prime.

The most important element is probably Francisco Liriano, who has the raw stuff to become the next Twins ace if he recovers fully from his 2006 surgery. There are two big “if’s” — Carlos Gomez, who may or may not develop into something more than just a speedy guy who slaps at the ball, and the rest of the Twins rotation. There are a lot of solid prospects in the Twins organization right now, but whether any of them will fully pan out is yet to be determined.


3. Who from the Santana package do you see as having the best chance to step in and make an impact in 2008? Who do you think has the most upside?

Regarding 2008: Carlos Gomez will be given every opportunity to win the starting CF job for the Twins this spring, and will be going up against two other young prospects for that position — an original Twins draft pick named Denard Span, who until last season was considered to be a shoe-in to eventually replace Hunter (he then stumbled a bit with his performance in AAA), and Jason Pridie, who was acquired from the Rays along with Delmon Young in the Matt Garza trade. The only other option for an immediate impact would be Phil Humber, but while Humber will be given a shot to claim a rotation spot this spring, I don’t think he’ll win a job.

As for upside, Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra are the two that come to mind as having the most upside. If Gomez figures out how to hit for average, he’ll be a significant force due to his speed, even if he never develops any power. Guerra is, in my mind, much too young to have any realistic expectations for — but he’s often mentioned as being very promising, so I’ll keep him on this list as well. I see Humber and Mulvey as being potential 4/5 starters, but not much more.

4. Is there anyone else from the Mets’ organization you would like to have seen in the Santana trade who wasn’t included?

I would have liked for the Twins to have completely raided the Mets minor league system, so sure. Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, etc. etc. would have been great additions to the package. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about what might have been with this deal, though — the Mets drew a line in the sand over which they would not step, and they held to it. More power to them for sticking to their guns. The Twins did the best they could do in a tough situation.


5. Do you like the Mets’ package better or worse than those purportedly offered by the Red Sox and Yankees in December? Why or why not?

No, I do not. In fact, fairly early on in this process I ranked the three purported trades with the Red Sox package involving Jacoby Ellsbury on top, the Yankees package involving Phil Hughes second, and the Mets prospect package third. The biggest reason is that I thought the Twins needed to solve an organizational problem in the Santana trade, and I think that Ellsbury would have been a great fit, and a multi-year solution, in center for the Twins. If they couldn’t fill the CF hole, then a highly touted pitcher like Hughes would have been a nice consolation prize. The Mets package contains no sure-thing players — it’s conceivable (although very unlikely) that the Twins will get ZERO days of Major League service time out of the four players they received for Santana. That wouldn’t have been the case in an Ellsbury or Hughes deal.

6. Do you believe the Twins had much choice other than to make a trade with the Mets, at this point in the offseason? In other words, is it possible the Yankees and Red Sox dropped out of the negotiations?

I think the Twins were stuck. I’m pretty sure that the Yankees never put Phil Hughes back on the table after they initially pulled out publicly, and no deal from the Yankees without Hughes was worthwhile to make. I don’t think that the Red Sox ever officially dropped out, but I think there were some pretty strong signals that they weren’t going to spend the kind of money on an extension that Santana was looking for. If the Twins agreed with me on that point, then there was no point in making a deal, because Santana just would have voided it by exercising his no-trade clause. Considering that I firmly believe that the Twins had to trade Santana (letting him walk as a free agent would have been inexcusable, especially because, as I said above, the Twins are very unlikely to compete for a playoff spot in 2008), they pretty much had to take the last deal left on the table from a team that WOULD give Santana what he wanted, and that was the deal from the Mets.

7. Did the Twins get equal value in return for Santana, considering all the circumstances? (i.e., lateness of the deal, supposed pressure by Santana to make the deal, the necessity of an expensive extension, etc.)

The Twins most definitely did NOT get EQUAL value for Santana — one year of a Cy Young caliber pitcher along with an exclusive negotiating window for an extension is worth more than four prospects — but they did the best they could get. Consider this from the Mets standpoint — had they not made this trade, they would not have been signing Santana, because the Yankees and Red Sox would have gone absolutely crazy in free agency. From my point of view, then, the Mets weren’t trading for just one year of Santana — they were trading for 7 years of Santana. And 7 years of a guy who could win 3 or 4 Cy Youngs in the NL over that stretch (note that I said “could,” not “will”) is worth much more than the Twins received in return. Again, though, I’m pleased with the deal because it was as good as could be expected in the circumstances, even if it wasn’t EQUAL value for what was given up. File this under the category of minimizing a guaranteed loss, instead.

Thanks again to Joshua Taylor, whose blog I’ve been reading since last June for no reason other than he does a great job. In fact, his in-depth coverage of the Twins has turned me into a quasi-Twins fan — the writing is that good. Right now he’s in the midst of doing “organizational rankings” on Minnesota’s system, and it’s more interesting and detailed than what you’ll find from Baseball America. But then, I wouldn’t expect anything less of a baseball fanatic pursuing a joint JD/PhD. Be sure to check out Taylor’s Twins Talk when you get a chance.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | 3 Comments

Key to 2008 – It’s Not Johan

While we Mets fans continue to bask in the afterglow of obtaining Johan Santana, it should be noted that acquiring the ace — while extremely important to the Mets’ hopes — is not necessarily the key to winning the NL pennant (or the NL East, for that matter).

Rather, it could be argued that the key individual to the Mets’ 2008 success is Carlos Delgado.

Of course, we’re making huge assumptions while suggesting this proclamation. For example, we’re assuming that Jose Reyes and David Wright continue to develop their overall games, or at least perform similar to their 2007 levels. And we’re assuming that the Mets bullpen will rebound from their disastrous performance in the last two months of the ’07 season. And we’re assuming that John Maine and Oliver Perez are at least as good as their respective first halves of 2007.

Yes — if the Mets are to succeed, Santana, Wright, Reyes, Maine, Perez, and the bullpen must deliver to certain expectations. If any of them falter, things are going to be tough. Assuming they all do what we expect them to, then the next big “if” falls on the broad shoulders of Delgado.

When the Mets obtained Delgado in the winter following the 2005 season, they expected to be getting a bonafide middle-of-the-order slugger who would strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers and provide protection to vulnerably dependent Carlos Beltran. In his initial season as a Met, Delgado delivered — and so did the rest of the offense. The 2006 Mets were an offensive juggernaut, and one of the keys to their running away with the NL East.

On the one hand, I strongly agree with the theory that “good pitching beats good hitting”, and believe that any championship team requires strong pitching above all else. However, take a look at the 2006 Mets — they had only two pitchers with more than 10 wins, no starter with 200 IP, no legitimate “ace”, and only one pitcher with at least 20 starts and an ERA under 4 (Tom Glavine, and barely at 3.82). Yet, despite their lack of dominance on the mound, the Mets were a runaway winner that year — partially because the relief corps was unbelievably good and mostly because their offense made up for the shortcomings.

Many point to Jose Reyes as the ignition for the offense — and that’s true. However, for the Mets offense to take over games, they need the meat of the order to deliver. And Carlos Delgado is the mailman.

When Delgado is hitting, Beltran is relaxed. When Beltran is relaxed, he is patient, selective, and hits at the levels befitting an individual earning $18.5M per year. When Beltran’s hitting, Reyes is scoring — as is Luis Castillo and David Wright. On the other hand, when Delgado is not hitting, Beltran presses, tries to do too much, and fails. We saw how badly he could fail in 2005, and while 2007 wasn’t a bad year, it didn’t quite meet our expectations. 33 HRs and 112 RBI are good numbers from a guy hitting third or fourth, but we know Beltran can do better. He’s paid to do better. Those are great numbers for a #4 hitter in 1985, but run of the mill for a 21st century cleanup hitter. More specifically, we know Beltran can be more consistent; his 2007 was marked by hot and cold streaks — with the hot ones being unconscious and helping to pad the final stats. Part of the inconsistency was due to nagging injuries, to be sure. But part of it also was due to Delgado’s struggles.

In fact, Delgado didn’t just struggle — he disappeared for long stretches at a time. When Moises Alou (speaking of disappearances) was present, Delgado’s troubles weren’t as noticeable, but with Alou gone — wow, was the emptiness glaring. Suddenly, it was imperative that Beltran produce, that Shawn Green make a contribution, that Paul LoDuca continue to hit like he did in 2006, that anyone playing second base add something to the offense. Further, Jose Reyes’ power reduction (compared to ’06) was noticeable, and it shouldn’t have been. Thank goodness for Wright, or the Mets might have finished in third place instead of second.

Right now, the Mets lineup starts off like this: 1. Reyes, 2. Castillo, 3. Wright, 4. Beltran. After that, everything is up in the air. We hope that Delgado fills #5, and that Alou remains healthy to handle #6, because 7 and 8 are Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Oh boy, there’s another reason Delgado has to hit — the lineup is suddenly only seven deep, harking back to the days of Rey Ordonez floundering in the eight hole. Add in the foregone conclusion that the oft-injured, 41-year-old Alou will be lucky to play in 100 games, and the pressure on Delgado compounds. Believe me, I love Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson as much as the next guy, but if they are in the lineup as often as we think they might be, Delgado HAS TO be slugging again. This .258 / 24 / 87 nonsense is not going to play well. It’s not so much the numbers as the approach by opposing pitchers, and the overall “feel” or mentality of the rest of the lineup. The threat of the longball has to return — opposing hurlers have to be worried about serving up homers. If not, Delgado becomes a non-entity, an easy out — and there are no worries if the people ahead of him are put on base. Heck, it’s a nice strategy to set up a double play.

Adding to the discomfort of the situation is the fact that there is no backup plan in the event Delgado falters again. Since the Mets completely emptied the farm of any close-to-MLB-ready talent this winter, there’s no help within the organization (which is why I still advocate the pickup of a Nelson Cruz-type, but that’s for another day). If Delgado fails in the five spot, and Alou is as (un)available as we expect, then either Ryan Church needs to turn into Travis Hafner or the Mets are in big trouble. Besides not having an heir apparent, there’s little to deal away for a veteran bat at the trade deadline. Ironically, Mike Piazza — if he remains unsigned — would look like a viable possibility (though it will never happen).

Don’t misconstrue my message — I don’t believe the Mets need to slug their way into the postseason the way the Phillies did last year. But the offense definitely needs to improve over their 2007 output. Reyes returning to 2006 form will help, absolutely, but a renaissance by Delgado is just as, if not more, vital. In this day and age of offense-dominated baseball, the Mets can’t win with a lineup that crumbles after the cleanup spot. Remember, Johan only helps once every five days — and he can’t be expected to throw a three-hit shutout every time out.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason, Mets Hitting | 9 Comments