Seth Speaks – What Twins Fans Think

Enough of what we think of the Johan Santana trade — what about the other side? How do Twins fans feel about getting four top prospects from the New York Mets?

Twins blogger Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net, claims he was neither “thrilled nor disappointed” with the Santana-to-Mets deal … but that wasn’t enough for me. MetsToday reached out to Seth and asked him to give us the the general feeling of a Twins fan entering the 2008 season. For example, with Santana gone, is there the assumption that the Twins are not targeting the postseason? Or is there still optimism about jumping over Detroit and Cleveland in what looks to be a very competitive AL Central this year? And who now steps forward as the ace of the staff? Finally, are there more exits on the way … in particular, Joe Nathan?

Following is Seth’s response …

It has been a long and very interesting winter in Minnesota. Normally, the Twins don’t have a lot going on in the offseason. A couple of low-level free agent signings, but that is about it. This year, it was all Twins all the time. Of course, the majority of that was consumed with the Johan Santana sweepstakes which took forever to resolve itself.

In trying to speak for the average Twins fan, I definitely feel that the assumption is that the Twins are giving up on 2008 and building toward 2010. Twins fans are upset because they assumed that because the Twins will be moving into a new stadium in 2010 that they will start spending money unwisely. They are upset at the loss of Santana on top of the loss of Carlos Silva on top of the loss of Torii Hunter. The feeling is that this is typical Twins; going cheap and being a minor league team for the big spenders with players once they become too spendy. The feel like they aren’t getting any big name players ready to help the Twins in 2008.

In my mind, I have said that I think that with Johan Santana, the Twins could win 77-82 games in 2008. Without Santana, I feel this team can win 74-79 games. I don’t think that the players they lost are the reason that they likely won’t compete in 2008. The fact is that the AL Central is the best division in baseball from top to bottom. Obviously the Tigers and Cleveland will again be very strong. The White Sox have no direction, but they won’t be really bad. And Kansas City is just getting better and better. The Twins made a smart move and one they had to make. I also think that the players that the Twins received from the Mets will all have a very positive impact on the Twins. I think Gomez and Humber will already help the team in 2008. Mulvey could be ready by July and Guerra may be the biggest impact of all of them.

The problem is that names like Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie, Phil Hughes, Jon Lester and Melky Cabrera were mentioned as possibilities. Those guys have names that the average Twins fan has heard of. They haven’t heard of the Mets guys as much. But the reality is that the upside of the new Twins is pretty exciting!

In much the same way, the Twins are left without anyone that would be classified as an Ace. Francisco Liriano certainly has the ability to be that, but coming back from Tommy John surgery, you just don’t know. Boof Bonser will likely be in the rotation. He was actually taken out of the rotation last September and told to lose 25 pounds in the offseason. He did, so it will be interesting to see how well he does. Scott Baker has dominated AAA for three years and last year, he was down to about his last start when he got a start in Shea Stadium against the Mets before the All Star break and did well. He had a good second half and maybe he turned a corner. Kevin Slowey has a chance to be special. He had a rough first go-round with the Twins, but when he came back in September, he had two walks and 28 strikeouts in 29.2 innings. After that, guys like Humber and Mulvey will compete with the likes of Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak and others for the fifth spot in the rotation. I don’t think there is an Ace in that group, not for 2008, but that type of pitcher will develop over the course of the next season or two.

The best thing the Twins have going for those young starters is their incredible bullpen, which has to be the best in baseball. Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier did a great job in 2007 setting up Joe Nathan. They will hopefully be assisted in 2008 by the return of Jesse Crain. Dennys Reyes hopes to reclaim his 2006 form (unlikely) and guys like Blackburn, Perkins and Brian Bass have a chance to play an important role.

My thought is that the Twins should keep Joe Nathan for the 2008 season UNLESS they are overwhelmed by an offer. First, I personally believe that the Twins and their offense can stay in contention for much of the 2008 season. If they are out of contention in July, the market for Nathan could be really great. If not, keep him and take the two draft picks.

Thanks again to Seth Stohs — we ask him to keep an eye on our former “kids” as they develop up north. Be sure to check out SethSpeaks.net to get more detail on Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and the rest of the Minnesota Twins.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | 2 Comments

Did the Twins Get Fleeced?

In the aftermath of the Johan Santana deal, there were immediate grumblings by pundits that the Twins “settled” for the Mets’ package of Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra. The general theory is that the Twins had stronger offers from the Red Sox and Yankees, but they wanted to get Santana out of the American League. It’s bad enough they traded their ace away — they certainly don’t want to see him pitching against them for the next 6-7 years.

Here’s a crazy thought: perhaps the Mets’ package WAS the best offer on the table.

If you listen to the pundits, Jacoby Ellsbury is ten times the prospect that Carlos Gomez is, and neither Kevin Mulvey nor Philip Humber (or Deolis Guerra, for that matter) can hold a candle to such uber-arms as Jon Lester, Ian Kennedy, or Philip Hughes. And there’s probably some legitimacy to those opinions. However, the bottom line is that none of these youngsters has absolutely proven to be top-notch MLBers just yet, and therefore any and all evaluations remain subjective — and open to debate.

Sure, you can say that Hughes or Lester look a lot more polished than Humber at this point in time — but you could have said the same thing about David West in comparison to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Jamie Moyer back in 1987. In 1998, Matt Anderson was considered light years ahead of, for example, Jon Garland. Similarly, while many feel Ellsbury is a much closer to a “sure-fire” prospect than Gomez, it wasn’t long ago that Yankee prospect Eric Duncan seemed just as much a guarantee — in fact, Duncan was expected to reach the bigs long before Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Carlos Quentin. If you don’t agree with the Duncan argument, maybe the names Alex Escobar, Jay Payton, or Butch Huskey ring a bell? Also consider that the first round of the 1998 draft included Jason Tyner, Bubba Crosby, Sean Burroughs, Chip Ambres, and Eric Valent (among others) — and all but Valent were rated higher than, and taken before, Aaron Rowand. Bottom line: just because “everyone” — or Baseball America, for that matter — says that one guy will become a better MLB player than someone else, doesn’t mean it’s so.

As we’ve seen firsthand, Carlos Gomez has enormous raw talent — he’s faster than Jose Reyes, has an arm as strong as Carlos Beltran’s (possibly stronger), can play the outfield with anyone, and shows some potential with the bat. He likely didn’t hit as well as Ellsbury last year because he simply wasn’t ready; remember he was rushed to AA as a 20-year-old, and prematurely jumped all the way up to MLB last year. Similarly, Kevin Mulvey jumped straight to AA after only one Rookie League game — perhaps had he been started at a lower level, his numbers would have been even more impressive, thereby eliciting more respect from scouts.

More to the point is the fact that the Twins organization has traditionally gone against “everyone else”, often making “unconventional” decisions. Their scouting department has had little turnover for the last 20+ years, and seems to be doing a pretty good job over the years. There’s no doubt the Mets’ package was valued by their scouts — the same scouts who recommended such “crazy” decisions in the past such as drafting Joe Mauer over Mark Prior. (OK, someone screwed up when Big Papi was released, but they made up for that with Justin Morneau.) Most recently, the Twins shocked the baseball world by drafted 5’9″ outfielder Ben Revere in the first round of the 2007 draft. Knowing that the Twins’ scouts have their own opinions on players — and that they’re often in contrast to the published “top tens” of sources such as Baseball America — it’s completely within the realm of possibility that the Twins liked the Mets’ package best.

Though, it didn’t hurt to send Johan to the NL for the next seven years, either.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason, Hot Stove | 2 Comments

Sean Burnett Available

Sean Burnett pitching for the Pittsburgh PiratesOnly a few days ago you saw that former first-rounder Sean Burnett was pitching well in winter ball, and might be on his way to a successful comeback after several arm issues.

Well wouldn’t you know that the Pittsburgh Pirates have just DFA’d Burnett, to make room on the roster for Ray Olmedo?

I realize we think the pitching staff is “done” with the addition of Johan Santana, but it would be nice to pick up a few arms to re-stock the depth in AAA now that Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey are no longer with us. Burnett could be a cheap, low-risk, high-reward acquisition to keep in the minors and possibly help the team at some point in 2008 or 2009.

According to reports, Burnett was healthy and pain-free all winter pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League, and had a strong showing during the Pirates’ minicamp in early January. He’s pitched the last two years in AAA but wasn’t terribly successful — though, he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Why bother with a little lefty with a 5-5 MLB record and a history of arm problems? Four reasons: one, he’s a former first-rounder, so he must have some kind of talent. Two, he’s a lefty, and we need more of those. Three, he never relied on overpowering batters — he was considered a crafty, smart pitcher — so there’s a good chance a loss in velocity won’t damage his effectiveness. Finally, he’ll come dirt-cheap, and with low risk.

I say jump on him, sign him to a AAA deal, give him an ST invite, and see what happens. There’s plenty of room on the 40-man roster right now.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason, Pitching Staff | 3 Comments

Mets Winter Wear

Spring training is less than two weeks away, but it’s still pretty cold up here in the northeast.

New York Mets knit beanieIf you haven’t already, be sure to visit the MetsToday Store and pick up some cold weather gear that will keep you warm in the winter months.

For example:

Mets wool winter hat


Mets classic knit beanie

Mets knit scarf

Mets “to the letter” throwback jacket

Of course, there’s plenty more than that … enjoy browsing through the Mets Today Store!

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | Comments Off on Mets Winter Wear

Hot New Mets Sneakers

On the heels (pun intended) of the Mets acquisition of Johan Santana, a nearly as exciting announcement is the release of Nike “Dunk Low” NY Mets “House of Hoops Exclusive” sneakers.

Hat tip to MetsToday reader archeress for the scoop.

Here’s a shot of the new sneaker:

Nike Dunk Low NY Mets sneakers

Also, hat tip to my wife, who points out that you can customize Chuck Taylor sneakers with any colors you like at the Converse website. Choose the “Make Mine Red” link and start customizing a pair of Chucks!

In addition, after you waste away a weekend afternoon customizing your Chuckie T’s, it will actually help someone else — 15% of the net sale goes directly to The Global Fund, which helps fight AIDS/HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria.

Since I’d rather help fight deadly diseases than support a company that bankrolls scumbags such as Michael Vick, you can guess which sneakers I’ll be wearing to Shea next year.

Converse All Star Chuck Taylor MetsToday branded sneakers

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | Comments Off on Hot New Mets Sneakers

Deal Is Done

In case you missed it, Johan Santana signed a six-year, $137.5M contract extension with the New York Mets. The contract includes an $18.5M club option that could keep Johan in the orange and blue through 2014.

Santana will take a physical today (Saturday) to officially complete the deal.

Braves catcher Brian McCann responded to the Santana acquisition thusly:

“I just know he’s 29 years old and he’s got two Cy Young Awards. I know he’s elite,” Braves catcher Brian McCann said. “We’ve got guys who are elite, too. You’re going to have to go out and play it out. It’s going to be fun.”

I agree with McCann — it IS going to be fun, and Santana IS elite. Not sure about that middle sentence.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason | 8 Comments

Greatest Mets Rotation Ever

Loyal MetsToday reader Joe Muscaglione brought up a great discussion topic — how does the projected 2008 rotation compare to 1986? I’ll go one further: how does it stack up against the best rotations in Mets history?

Here are my candidates …

1969: Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Gary Gentry, Don Cardwell / Jim McAndrew

Seaver had arguably the best season of his career, winning a career-high 25 games, posting 5 shutouts, 18 complete games, 1.04 WHIP, and 2.21 ERA, finishing second in the NL MVP voting. Koosman had a great year as well – 17-9, 2.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6 SHO, 16 CG. The young Gentry looked to be another Seaver in the making, with a big curve and hard fastball that helped him win 13 games and pitch 234 innings. Cardwell and McAndrew split time as the #4 starter, combining for another 14 wins and 2 shutouts. Oh, and then there was this kid Nolan Ryan who made ten starts and looked pretty decent.

1973: Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, George Stone

Again, Seaver dominated the NL, with 19 of the Mets’ 82 wins, 2.08 ERA, 251 strikeouts in 290 IP, and a remarkable 0.97 WHIP. Koosman’s 14 wins, 2.84 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP look paltry next to that line, and Matlack had a breakout year winning another 14 with a 3.20 ERA as the #3. Fourth starter George Stone was the big surprise, as the journeyman posted a 2.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a magnificent 12-3 record.

1986: Doc Gooden, Ron Darling, Bobby Ojeda, Sid Fernandez, and Rick Aguilera

It wasn’t Doc’s best season — in fact, it was a disappointment compared to his 24-4 record the year before — but he still went 17-6 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP (imagine if he wasn’t on coke the whole time?). Darling was just as good, going 15-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, El Sid went 16-6, and fourth starter Ojeda went 18-5 — how many fourth starters win 18 games? Aguilera made only 20 starts, but posted a respectable 10-7 record in bringing up the rear end of the rotation.

1988: Doc Gooden, Ron Darling, Bobby Ojeda, Sid Fernandez, and David Cone

Same rotation as 1986, but swap out Rick Aguilera for David Cone — who went 20-3. On paper, you would think that rotation would rank with the greatest of all time in MLB history, but this was the year of underachievers (other than Cone). Gooden and Darling were neck and neck in the race to be ace — Darling going 17-9 and Gooden 18-9 — but Gooden wasn’t as dominant as in previous years (sniff sniff). El Sid (3.03) and Ojeda (2.88) posted excellent ERAs, but went a combined 22-23. Even underachieving, a damn strong fivesome.

2008: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Orlando Hernandez

Order them any way you wish — this is potentially one of the deepest Mets rotations in their 46-year history. We’ll see …

Place your vote!

[poll=13]

Posted in 07-08 Offseason, Pitching Staff | 7 Comments

Santana Effect

With the addition of Johan Santana, here is the what the Mets’ starting five looks like:

1. Johan Santana

2. Pedro Martinez

3. Orlando Hernandez

4. John Maine

5. Oliver Perez

Wow.

There are many who will argue that El Duque is the #5, and not the #3, but my guess is that this is the way the rotation will shake out — barring injuries — when spring training breaks at the end of March. Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph put significant emphasis on past history when evaluating players, and though Orlando Hernandez’s 2007 was abbreviated, the numbers he put up in that limited time were excellent. More to the point, if you take out the handful of his awful starts — which, in hindsight, had to have been affected by health issues — he could have been considered their most dominant starter. When healthy, he was almost a cinch to go seven innings and give up three runs or less.

OK, there may be a better argument for John Maine to be the #3 — the only thing going against Johnny is that his second half was an abysmal disappointment compared to his first-half dominance. But here’s the kicker: go ahead and make your case for Maine — it doesn’t matter! Put Maine #3, Ollie #4, and El Duque #5 and you tell me who suddenly has the deepest starting rotation in the NL East?

This is perhaps the greatest impact of the “Santana Effect” — everyone drops down a notch, and the Mets look really strong at both the backend and the front-end. A week ago, we were concerned that the Mets starters were a collection of question marks — effectively, four #3s and a big hole / hope against hope at #5. We were upset that the Mets one-two punch at the top couldn’t match up with the likes of Hamels / Myers or Smoltz / Hudson. Today, however, the question is not the front-end for the Mets, but everyone else’s back end. Who in the NL East — in baseball, for that matter — will go into the 2008 season with the quality of John Maine and Oliver Perez at #3 and #4? Who has a guy with the dominating potential of Orlando Hernandez at #5?

Speaking of the fifth spot, Johan Santana’s presence could be the best thing to happen to Mike Pelfrey over the long term. In the short term, yes, it probably bumps Pelfrey back to AAA (assuming there are no injuries). However, we’ve argued here several times that Pelfrey needs to spend more time in the minors for seasoning. Maybe now, with the pressure of MLB games lifted, Pelfrey can concentrate on commanding a change-up. Who knows, maybe he’ll even have the chance to pull the cobwebs off an overhand curve. In any case, I don’t think any young pitcher in today’s game can be hurt by extra innings in the minors — nearly all are rushed up too early. Lets watch Pelfrey continue to polish his all-around game, establish an off-speed pitch, build confidence, and dominate at a lower level. There’s no doubt he’ll have an opportunity at some point to fill in for El Duque for some spot starts — and develop at a more realistic pace.

Bottom line: what a difference a day makes.

Posted in 07-08 Offseason, Pitching Staff | 20 Comments