[TABLE=11]

First-half Analysis

What a difference a year makes. Sosa went from scrap heap to sensation in the blink of an eye, all on the success of a nasty slider.

A last-minute addition to spring training, Jorge Sosa was an afterthought in Port St. Lucie, buried behind a slew of other starters, such as Aaron Sele, Alay Soler, and Chan Ho Park. He was essentially another can of paint to throw at the wall, and in the end Sosa was the one that stuck — though it didn’t happen overnight.

In seven spring training appearances, Sosa allowed 20 hits in 12 2/3 innings, sporting a hefty 8.52 ERA. His miserable audition earned him a ticket to New Orleans, but something special happened down there. He went 4-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 29 strikeouts to only 4 walks in 32 innings — in the PCL, a league notorious as a “hitter’s league”. That earned him a spot start in early May and he hasn’t looked back since, stringing together six outstanding starts in eleven tries — a much-needed jolt at the backend of the Mets’ rotation.

Though seven of his first eight starts were nothing short of spectacular — capped by an eight-inning, scoreless gem in Detroit — he’s been inconsistent since, and landed on the disabled list after trying to beat out a bunt against the Phillies.

Second-half Outlook

There were enough questions about Sosa’s success — and whether he could keep it up — before he injured his hamstring. Now he has to come back from an injury that could adversely affect his pitching motion if he’s not 100%. Considering Sosa’s desperation to save his career, combined with his recent success and competitive fire, it’s possible he’ll come back too soon and either re-injure the leg or pitch ineffectively upon his return.

Assuming he comes back 100%, one must wonder how much longer he can keep up the bar he’s set for himself. After all, he’s essentially a one-pitch pitcher, throwing sliders over 75% of the time. His fastball can touch the mid-90s but he doesn’t have good command nor movement, and often leaves it up in the zone, and his change-up is only average when it’s working well. His repertoire is vulnerable to long fly balls (sliders thrown in the strike zone often lack sharp downward movement, and stay flat and fat), and indeed that’s been his major bugaboo in the past. Somehow this year he’s been getting a remarkable number of ground balls — he’s allowed 82 flyballs and 78 grounders, in contrast to a career flyball:groundball ratio around 1.3:1.

If he can come back healthy and duplicate his first-half success, the Mets would obviously be thrilled. But if he can’t, or is pushed out of the rotation, will he be effective as a reliever? His stuff says maybe, but his head says hmmm. Upon joining the Mets in January, he insisted he would be a starter, and continued that meme even after his awful spring. His career ERA as a reliever is a full run higher than as a starter, so he may be on to something.

In the end, the best plan for Mets fans is to be happy with what he’s done to this point, and have low expectations for him the rest of the way. It’s unrealistic to expect him to continue pitching well into the sixth and seventh inning of every start — and if he does, it will be a pleasant and welcome surprise.

[TABLE=10]

Looking at his peripheral numbers — i.e., a 1.16 WHIP, 3.14 ERA, 2:1 K:BB ratio — and considering the mighty Mets offense, it’s unbelievable his record is only 7-6. While John Maine has established himself as the Mets’ stopper, Oliver Perez is not far behind — and with a little luck would have nine or ten wins right now.

Ollie is light years from the 3-13 season of a year ago, and like Maine, feeds off of every successful start. Rick Peterson finally has a handle on keeping his mechanics consistent, successfully suppressing one of Oliver’s most volatile issues. While it’s true Perez still has starts where his timing and release point are all over the place, those days are rare rather than the rule — a complete turnaround from 2005-2006. By the tail end of last year, Perez was a guy most likely to be knocked out by the third inning, but have a 20% chance to throw an absolute gem. In 2007, he’s the exact opposite: a guy who throws a gem eight times out of ten — and on his “bad” days he can still manage to keep the team in the game for five innings.

In addition to his mechanics being in synch, two things are key to Oliver’s success: spotting his fastball vertically, and changing speeds. His slider is nearly always on, and one of the nastiest in baseball — though it will flatten out when he drops his arm angle too low. When he stays on top, can place his fastball both up and down, and mixes in both an average changeup and a slow slider, he’s nearly unhittable.

Add in his energy level and kidlike enthusiasm for the game, and you have a star in the making.

Second-half Outlook

How good Ollie can be is dependent on how much confidence he builds. The talent is there, as is the fearlessness, and the willingness to be a workhorse. More than any other pitcher on the roster, Oliver Perez has the tools and mentality to pitch the first no-hitter in Mets history, and to be a genuine “seventh-game ace”. Assuming he stays on track with a repeatable delivery, the sky is the limit. A hot streak in September could propel him to postseason heroics well beyond what he showed in October 2006.

[TABLE=9]

First-half Analysis

What more can you say about John Maine? He’s lived up to his surname, the “main man” in the Mets’ rotation, establishing himself as their bonafide stopper.

Last year, Maine found remarkable success throwing essentially one pitch — a fastball. He ran it down and in, and ran it up, and rarely mixed in anything else. The fact that he was able to post a 3.60 ERA and pitch brilliantly in the postseason without throwing an adequate breaking pitch nor changing speeds effectively was a testament to his guts and guile. In 2007, he appeared on the scene with not only an above-average slider but the ability to keep batters off-balance using a fair changeup, and the results have been nothing short of outstanding. Further, he’s minimized the “flake outs” that marred his 2006 starts; in fact, he’s lost focus only a handful of times — which is a significant advancement considering that he’d have at least one or two brain farts a game last year. What’s more scary for the rest of the NL is this: he’s getting better with every start, adding a little more confidence every week.

Second-half Outlook

Generally Maine is a cool cat on the mound — levelheaded, deliberate, and emotionless. We saw a different side in his last start of the second half, after being snubbed a second time from the All-Star squad — he was a fierce, take-no-prisoners sonofagun with the focus and sharpness of a finely honed blade. Since he was passed over a THIRD time (when Brian Fuentes opted out and Brandon Webb selected instead), one must wonder if he’ll continue his ferocity in the second half, inflicting damage on the rest of the NL for the massive disrespect bestowed on perhaps the third- or fourth-best starter in the league.

What Maine lacked last year he’s gained this season in spades. He needed a solid breaking pitch, an average change, a jolt of confidence, and the ability to remain focused. Miraculously, he’s found all four (did he visit Oz?) in one fell swoop, and as his confidence builds, he becomes more dominant. And now he’s added a fifth element: an angry, nasty edge, so hopes are high for the second half. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he IMPROVED upon the first half, becoming a one-man wrecking ball against the rest of the National League.

[TABLE=8]

First Half Analysis

Tom at times has been terrific, working quickly and efficiently while pitching to contact, yet also having a fun time striking out young, inexperienced hitters lunging out on their front foot. He throws his fastball at two speeds, his change-up at two more, and occasionally rides in a cutter to take the inside part of the plate from righthanders. About once a game, he’ll also show a big curve to keep batters honest.

In the end, though, it’s all about location, and the width of the home plate umpire’s strike zone. There is no doubt that QuesTec is the worst thing to happen to the guile Glavine’s career, but he’s done a decent job of adjusting. Still, it’s crucial that he get the borderline calls — which seem to be tougher to coax out of specific umps.

After the first two weeks of April, it appeared that Glavine might reach win #300 before the All-Star break. But he ran into a string of tough losses despite well-pitched games, and is hanging at 297 after another no-decision in Houston.

Second-half Outlook

With all the excitement around the masterful performances of Oliver Perez, El Duque, and Jorge Sosa, the key to the Mets’ success has been the consistent stability and innings-eating ability of Glavine and John Maine — neither of which have missed a start. Glavine has pitched into the sixth inning or further in all but two of his starts — back-to-back hiccups against American League monster lineups (Tigers and Yankees). Since he doesn’t have to pitch against a lineup with a DH again this year (until, hopefully, late October), we can surmise that he’ll continue that streak of quality starts through the second half. It’s true — he’s an NL-only pitcher at this stage of his career, and will pitch around the middle of the order to get to the weaker bats when necessary.

Glavine needs to re-discover the double plays that helped him out of many jams early in the season, but more importanly, must get 300 out of his head. His ERA is 4.36 — on pace to be the highest since his initial disappointing season with New York in 2003 — and he’s too proud to leave it up there. He’ll need to continue to pound the inside part of the plate, and mix in his curve more frequently to find success in the second half. If Glavine can find a way to get to 300 before mid-August and get the monkey off his back, he’ll finish with a flourish — just in time for the stretch run. He’s not the most spectacular pitcher in the NL, and at this point a shell of his former self, but he’s still the Mets’ most solid choice as #1 postseason starter — assuming Pedro doesn’t come back or comes back at less than 80%.

[TABLE=7]

Offense

• long, loopy swing tends to generate high popups and occasional homers — but after some surprising early-season bombs, pitchers have been more careful on the inside part of the plate
• on occasion, he’ll cut down his swing and poke basehits — however, he is not in the lineup to be a .250 singles hitter, as Willie Randolph looks to him for pop
• though his P/PA is above-average, his long at-bats are mixed with too many short and one-pitch plate appearances — which often come in head-scratching situations (i.e., late in game, down four runs)
• should handle the bat better than he does; cannot be counted on to sacrifice bunt nor hit-and-run
• he WILL hit mistakes over the fence

Defense

• average range, average arm
• though not a terrible defender, would not be described as “surehanded”; there have been a few balls go bang off his iron glove
• fairly good at going back on the ball (i.e., popups) — which suggests he should spend more time in outfield, rather than second base
• fairly good at turning the double play

Second-half Outlook

Damion Easley was a big surprise early in the season, hitting a few dramatic homeruns to win ballgames in late innings. However, when pressed into everyday duty, his vulnerabilities became glaring. As a pinch-hitter and bench player, getting 2-3 starts a week, he can be very productive — and this was his intended purpose when signed over the winter. If Willie Randolph ever comes to his senses, and plays Easley as intended, he will be immensely more productive and valuable — sort of like a poor man’s Endy Chavez. Easley should be getting occasional starts — against lefties ONLY — at 2B, SS, 3B, and the OF, maybe twice a week, and serve as the number-one righthanded bat off the bench. If that’s his role, he’ll hit at least 25-30 points higher, and give Reyes, Wright, Valentin, and the outfielders much-needed rest — making those players more effective as well.

[TABLE=6]

There are two Carloses in the first half, not including Beltran and Gomez. There is the Carlos Delgado of April through most of June, and there’s the guy who suited up in Delgado’s uniform in July.

Interestingly, even with his struggles, Delgado still is on pace to hit about 30 homers and drive in 100 runs. So imagine if he can parlay his last week’s performance into a second half that is slightly better than awful?

Offense

• hasn’t been comfortable at the plate all year — up until the last week or so; mechanics are out of sync, and he has too much head, hand, and upper-body movement — it’s hard to hit when you don’t keep your head still and eyes on the ball
• when going bad, his hands and weight are going forward with the stride; when going well, everything stays back and his hands do most of the work
• on occasion, has focused on poking balls into the gaping hole on the left side (due to the over-shift) — but then he clogs the basepaths
• he can and will drive the low and inside pitch, even when cold

Defense

• very good at scooping balls in the dirt — this is his best defensive quality
• range is extremely limited; in fact, it is nonexistent
• terrible on bunts; will never, ever throw out a lead runner on a sacrifice bunt

Second-half Outlook

The All-Star break could be the worst thing that happened to Delgado, as he was finally starting to look comfortable, get good at-bats, and swing with authority in the 5-10 games preceding the fiasco — er, I mean, festivities. If the early July Delgado returns after the break, the Mets will have the power bat they’ve been so sorely missing all year. Delgado’s return to form is the key to the Mets’ offense as a whole. Though Jose Reyes is the guy that gets the Mets started, Delgado is the domino that tips the remainder of the lineup’s momentum. If Delgado hits, Beltran hits. If Beltran and Delgado are hitting, Wright will see better pitches, and on it goes.

[TABLE=5]

Looking at the numbers so far, it looks like Green will at least come close to his 2006 output — assuming he stays in the lineup. That’s not awful production for a seventh hitter, but it may not be enough to offset his weak glove.

Offense

• uses whole field, though he tends to go to leftfield more often than not
• walks rarely, but strangely enough, sees a lot of pitches and gets into deep counts
• no longer a homerun threat, but will on occasion take a guess and send one deep; his homers are most likely to occur against veteran pitchers with whom he has a long history
• will swipe a base if ignored, and runs the bases better than given credit for

Defense

Second-half Outlook

For his entire career, Shawn Green has been a hot-and-cold hitter. However, in the past, his hot streaks could carry a team, as they included prodigious homeruns and multiple extra-base hits. These days, however, Green is a shell of his former self — in all phases of the game — and his hot streaks are more like “tepid streaks”, as the homers and doubles have been replaced by singles and long singles. Still, he is a very heady ballplayer, makes adjustments for his limitations, and draws on his experience and intelligence to contribute. Three things you can count on: he will not make mental errors, he will do what’s best for the team, and he will hustle all the time. Unfortunately, unless he starts the second half hitting the way he did in April, he may find himself on the bench in favor of Lastings Milledge, because his defense has become atrocious and no longer acceptable in relation to his offensive production. That said, he could develop into a solid bench guy — a lefthanded Jeff Conine — and be effective starting 4-5 times a week in the outfield and at first base (where Carlos Delgado would benefit immensely from a weekly day off).