Sorry, I couldn’t resist …

There’s at least one legitimate reason for a Mets fan to pickup the latest copy of Penthouse magazine — to read Anna Benson’s opinion of the Mets.

No, I haven’t read the article, but did find excessive enjoyment from this excerpt as published in the Daily News:

“They got a —- bag of balls for Kris. They didn’t get —-. Julio Jorge (sic) and John Maine. They traded a number-one stud pitcher who was 30 at the time, and they blame the red dress….If I were a Mets fan, I’d be beside myself.”

Wow. Talk about open mouth, insert foot. Great timing, Anna !

In Anna’s defense, the article was likely written months before that number-one stud blew out his shoulder. But I don’t think any Mets fan is unhappy with the final result of the Kris Benson deal — John Maine and Orlando Hernandez (by way of Jorge Julio).

The brilliant Anna went so far as to say “You look at all the injuries they had with Pedro (Martinez) and beyond, and you know Kris would have taken them to the top last season.”

Um … yeah … riiiiiiiiiiiiiight …….

Well I guess the Mets can always sign Kris this winter — at a bargain rate — if he really is that much of a stud.

Lastings Milledge was supposed to come in to camp and work on honing some of his raw skills, both athletic and social. He was expected to begin showing better strike zone judgment, fielding ability, and baserunning instincts as the spring wore on. It was hoped that a positive spring, aided by the tutelage of people like Rickey Henderson, would go a long way in furthering his development when he started the season in AAA New Orleans. Maybe, with a strong start in ‘Nawlins, Milledge could polish his skills to the point where he’d be a contributor to the 2007 Mets — perhaps as early as the second half of the season.

At the same time, Shawn Green came into camp armed with an epiphany in regard to his power outage of the past few years. He had found a mechanical flaw in his swing, and would have it corrected in the six weeks of spring training. By the end of March, Green would be swinging circa 2002, when he blasted 42 home runs in a Dodger uniform. Things would be looking very good at the bottom of the Mets order with the return of Shawn Green as a power threat.

However, things have not quite turned out as has been hoped. Though Green has made adjustments to his swing, the immediate rewards have not been realized in spring training games. He insists that he’s feeling better, and more confident, and Willie Randolph points to his BP sessions as evidence of Green’s improvement and legitimate reason for optimism. Unfortunately, for outsiders, the proof is in the pudding of spring training stats, and Shawn’s are dismal — a .163 batting average with 2 homeruns in 49 at-bats. Those numbers are more glaring when one looks at what Lastings Milledge has put up over the same time frame — his .370 average is second only to the red-hot Jose Reyes. The stark contrast in statistics between the two players has many, many people calling for a change in the guard.

But does that really make sense? In some ways, maybe, in others, maybe not.

First of all, spring training numbers don’t mean much — as much as we’d like them to. Sure, Shawn Green is batting .163, but Carlos Delgado is hitting only .200, Paul LoDuca is at .185, and Moises Alou is struggling at .171. Since Mike DeFelice is batting almost 30 points higher, and is light years better defensively, does that mean he should be starting in front of LoDuca? Should Julio Franco’s .333 average unseat Delgado at first base? Of course not. And if we’re going purely by the numbers, why is it Green, and not Alou, who is on the hot seat? Alou is over 40 years old, possibly worse in the field (yes, it’s possible), and injury prone.

Further to the point of dismissing spring training stats, consider the following. Last spring, Josh Phelps led the Detroit Tigers with a .531 average, blasting 32 total bases in only 15 games. Phelps did not make the team, and spent all of 2006 in AAA. Perhaps a better comparison is Brian Anderson, who won the centerfield job with the White Sox on the strength of a .309 average last spring. He ended up the regular season batting .225. Similarly, up-and-coming prospect Brandon Watson seemed to have a bead on a job on the Washington Nationals roster after a .300 spring, but spent most of the year shuffled back and forth from the minors to the majors, and was eventually traded to the Reds.

More to the point, former Mets Joe McEwing and Doug Mientkiewicz both hit over .430 for the Royals last spring, while their teammate Angel Berroa blistered the ball at a .450 clip. McEwing spent the year in AAA (for Houston), Mientkiewicz was let go at the end of the year, and Berroa finished at .234. The Royals, in fact, had the best numbers and the best record last spring — a stark contrast to their regular season performance.

If those examples aren’t near enough to Milledge’s situation, let’s take a look at Milledge last spring. He hit .327, initially sparking some to wonder if he might be ready for prime time. He wasn’t — at least, not indicated by his .241 MLB average. That same spring, Jose Valentin batted .143, looking much worse than Shawn Green does this year. Valentin, in fact, looked godawful right through the end of April — this blog was one of many calling for his release. Boy, were we wrong!

As much as people love to point to the stats, in the spring they may as well be meaningless — rarely showing any indication of how a player will do over the course of a 162-game season. That said, the best way to evaluate this competition between Green and Milledge is to look at their histories and their current skill sets, and try to make a logical decision on which player would add the most to the 2007 Mets.

Looking purely at their 2006 numbers, Green has a slight advantage. He hit 35 points higher, slugged 50 points higher, and got on base more (.344 OBP to Milledge’s .310). Green struck out at a lower rate, and scored more often (once every two games compared to Milledge’s one every four). The only place where Milledge beat Green was in RBI, as he drove in a run once every 7.5 at-bats compared to Green’s once every 8. Of course, there are a lot of problems with comparing the numbers, since Milledge only played in 56 games while Green played a full season. But one thing the stats do tell us, is that Milledge did not set the world on fire — and in fact did not even play near to the level of Green — even though Green is at the downside of his career.

Well, you say, Milledge was only 21, and he had rough times, and he wasn’t ready last year, so it isn’t a fair assessment nor comparison. That’s fine, but then why is he suddenly ready this year? He’s performing at about the same level this March as he did last March, so we can’t go by the spring numbers as an indication. His AAA numbers aren’t exactly awe-inspiring, either — in 300 at-bats, he had 7 homeruns, 36 RBI, .277 average, with a .388 OBP / .440 SLG / .828 OPS. A nice year, especially for a 21-year-old, but not necessarily something to get overly excited about. In fact, his .277 avg. and .828 OPS compared similarly to Green’s .283 / .777 — but Green did it at the MLB level. In an honest, by-the-numbers evaluation, there’s no reason to believe that Milledge will perform appreciably better than Green in 2007.

That is, unless you believe that Green is in a seriously rapid decline — the kind that effectively, and quickly, ended the careers of Dale Murphy and Robin Ventura, for example. However, the numbers don’t really predict a colossal collapse. While it’s true that Shawn Green’s power output has fallen dramatically in the last three years, his batting average has stayed around his career .280, and his strikeout rate has gone down. Some whisper that his issue is a slower bat, but Green contends it was a mechanical flaw related to a shoulder injury suffered in 2003. It makes sense .. though, it could be a combination of both mechanics and physical demise. In any case, if Green’s mechanical flaw is indeed corrected at some point between now and May, the Mets may have the best #7 hitter in the National League. While he may never hit 40 homeruns again, there’s no reason to doubt his ability to hit 25-30 — assuming he gets himself on track. Green is a notorious — and admitted — streak hitter. He’ll have 0-21 periods during the season, but he may also have the kind of hot streaks that make him the most feared hitter in the NL — Albert Pujols included. Mets fans may find this hard to believe, because they haven’t seen him at the top of his game. It’s a big “if”, but IF Shawn Green can find his stroke, and IF he gets hot, he’s a one-man wrecking machine.

Chances are, Green won’t return to that level of play. But, he has been there, has done that. It’s in him. It’s not unlike when the Mets suffered through the torturous beginning of Jose Valentin’s 2006 season. Why did they keep giving him chances, when he looked absolutely abysmal throughout spring training, and totally clueless in all of his pinch-hitting appearances? Because for a five-year period, he was one of the most productive shortstops in the AL not named A-Rod. The ability to succeed at this level of play requires more than pure skill — you also have to know how to make adjustments, how to read pitchers, and how to know yourself on a particular day. This all comes with experience — something Lastings Milledge doesn’t have (yet).

No one questions that Milledge’s raw skills are better than Shawn Green’s right now. But is that enough to justify pushing him into the starting lineup this year? For example, Milledge might run faster, but the raw speed doesn’t necessarily make him a better baserunner — nor a better fielder — than Green. As much as everyone likes to criticize Green’s fielding, Milledge’s — right now — are not appreciably better. (It reminds me of the 1980 Phillies, who used to bring in Lonnie Smith in the late innings as a defensive replacement for Greg Luzinski — did that REALLY make a whole lot of sense?) Milledge might have a quicker bat, but that doesn’t mean he’ll make more contact — or more productive outs. On the other hand, Green has already established that even if he doesn’t hit homeruns, he is capable of working deep counts, advancing runners, and executing the hit-and-run. Milledge is still learning these less exciting skills, but they are essential to winning. (Real baseball, played on a field, is much different from numbers-oriented fantasy baseball.) If Green is not hitting for power, or facing a tough pitcher, he can adjust his approach and his swing to make contact. Milledge, again, is still developing the ability to adjust. Milledge claims he has nothing to prove in the minors, but the fact is, he hit .277 in AAA last year. What has that proven?

Major League teams generally don’t expect a 22-year-old to emerge as a star — it’s a rarity. A few recent youngsters to burst on the scene at that tender age include David Wright, Albert Pujols, Hank Blalock, Joe Mauer, Rocco Baldelli, and Miguel Cabrera. However, all of those players showed previous indications of immediate success. Wright batted a hair under .300 at both the AAA and MLB level when he was 21; Mauer mashed at over .300 at every minor league stop, then hit .305 in his MLB cup of coffee at the age of 21; Blalock batted .307 in AAA as a 21-year-old, one year after hitting .380; Cabera hit .365 as a 20-year-old in AA, performed admirably later that year in the bigs and postseason, and hit .294 in MLB the next year. Rocco Baldelli forced himself onto a very bad Tampa Bay team as a 21-year-old after hitting .333, .371, and .292 at three minor league stops the year before. Pujols was a man-child and freak of nature that cannot be used as comparison in this situation. Even the player Milledge is most compared to — Gary Sheffield — had proven his point by demolishing AAA pitching at a .344 clip when he was only 19.

Comparatively, Milledge has shown promise at the A level, and through 48 games in AA when he hit .337, with 4 home runs, 24 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. Nice numbers, for sure, but hardly dominating. Certainly his .277 at Norfolk last year cannot be considered excellent. Why people see him as ready to start on a championship team now is hard to fathom. Will he be a star? Maybe. For certain it won’t be this year. In fact, he’ll likely continue to struggle. Until he proves he can handle pitching at a level higher than AA, it doesn’t make sense to rush him — not when there is a perfectly capable Shawn Green in his position, and especially not when all the other aspects of Milledge’s game still need to be honed. If Milledge proved to be an excellent fielder, and or an astute baserunner — something along the lines of Endy Chavez — then maybe you consider displacing Green with Milledge. But until he gets more at-bats in AAA, and improves his game overall, the best place for Lastings Milledge — and the Mets — on April 1 is New Orleans.

If, by June 1, Shawn Green still hasn’t found his stroke, and Lastings Milledge is tearing up AAA, then there’s a strong case for promotion. But not now.

There are less than ten days left of spring training, and many issues have been addressed in Port St. Lucie over the last month. Still, though, there are burning questions yet to be answered — and may not be answered until the final days before the team heads north.

The exciting:

– Jose Reyes is making 2006 look like a warmup to what could be a monstrous offensive season in 2007

– Tom Glavine has looked in mid-season form since his first spring training start

– Oliver Perez and John Maine are fulfilling everyone’s expectations, carried by the momentum of their postseason success

– Mike Pelfrey looks like the real deal

– Joe Smith may make us forget all about Chad Bradford

The disappointing:

– Duaner Sanchez came into camp with the wrong attitude, and will now have a much longer road back to the 8th inning setup role

– After a surprisingly quick recovery, Juan Padilla had to be shut down, and will take a little longer to return from Tommy John surgery

– Chan Ho Park, Aaron Sele, and Jorge Sosa have shown nothing to earn a spot on the Mets roster — not to mention Alay Soler, whose status has already been established

The questions:

– Will Shawn Green ever hit again ?

– Can El Duque be counted on to start more than 20 games?

– Who among Ben Johnson, David Newhan, Damion Easley, and Lastings Milledge, will fill out the bench?

– With Sanchez off-track, Ambiorix Burgos not ready for prime-time, and Aaron Heilman suffering from elbow tendinitis, has the bridge to Billy Wagner become a weakness rather than a strength?

The outburst of Reyes would be the story of the spring, if the Mets did not have the cloud of pitching questions hovering over Port St. Lucie. Jose came in beefed up and, more importantly, with a much different approach at the plate. Gone are the days of swinging wildly at off-speed pitches, and reaching for balls in the dirt. The new Jose Reyes waits on pitches, lets the ball get deep before committing, and the result has been consistently long, quality at-bats. He’s seeing more pitches, and seeing them longer — much unlike the over-aggressive, free-swinger he’d been as recently as May of last year. While it’s true that Reyes learned to be more and more patient as the 2006 season wore on, it was more about taking pitches than seeing and waiting on pitches (there’s a difference). This spring, he’s staying back longer — a trait of the truly great hitters. Wade Boggs did it. Rod Carew did it. George Brett did it. Tony Gwynn did it. Now Reyes is learning to do it, and as a result he may find himself among those names someday in Cooperstown. For the here and now, his 5- and 6-pitch at-bats will result in an overall better performance by the entire Mets’ lineup, for several reasons. First, it’s going to result in at least 75 walks this year — a figure that seemed unfathomable less than a year ago. Second, it’s going to force the opposing starting pitcher to throw more pitches, inching him ever closer to the 100-pitch limit imposed on today’s moundsmen. Third, it gives the other eight hitters in the Mets’ order a chance to see most of what the pitcher has that particular day. Finally, it should also ignite a pattern of patience — a strategy that will wear down a starting pitcher earlier in the game, thus forcing the opponent to dip into their bullpen arms earlier than they might like. If Reyes continues his current approach into the regular season, and remains healthy, he may have the most exciting all-around year any player has had since Rickey Henderson’s 1990 MVP season.

As the Mets pitchers and catchers entered camp in mid-February, the big questions surrounded what looked to be a weak starting staff. By contrast, the bullpen looked to be again the team’s greatest strength, bolstered further by the additions of Scott Schoeneweis, Jon Adkins, Ambiorix Burgos, Juan Padilla, and others. What a difference a month makes!

At this point in time, the starting rotation looks to be more or less settled, as Glavine, Maine, and Perez have erased the doubt, and El Duque looks like, well, El Duque: a 57-year-old reincarnation of Satchel Paige who will have some health issues but otherwise make 20-25 starts and finish 10-8. Further, Mike Pelfrey’s brilliant spring may force him into the #5 spot, something he should be able to handle at this point in his career. Not a great rotation, but solid, dependable, and enough to complement the Mets’ offense. On the other hand, the Mets bullpen, which looked so deep a few weeks ago, is looking meek in comparison.

First, Duaner Sanchez came in overweight — both in the belly and in the head. His sudden streak of selfishness has cost the Mets a solid setup man for at least the month of April. Then Aaron Heilman was shut down with elbow tendinitis — a residual effect of his little-known offseason elbow surgery. These issues would not have been a big deal if Juan Padilla continued his amazing recovery, or Ambiorix Burgos could find the strike zone with his 100+ MPH heater, or if Jon Adkins or Jorge Sosa could look a little better than BP pitchers. However, all of those names are removed from the discussion, and Joe Smith has emerged as the reliever most likely to get important outs. Luckily, Heilman should be healthy enough to start the season, but without Sanchez to help, how long before the elbow issue flares up again — especially considering Willie Randolph’s strategy to manage every game like it’s the seventh game of the World Series?

Compared to the pitching issues, the offensive questions seem miniscule. While there’s a clamoring among fans to ditch Shawn Green and replace him with Lastings Milledge, in the end it really doesn’t matter which is in right field. Each has their negatives and positives, and regardless of who plays, they’ll be batting seventh in the lineup. Some day Milledge may put up great offensive numbers, but it’s not going to be in 2007. The best he’ll do is the worst that Green can accomplish, and neither player will be a difference-maker in the Mets’ drive to the pennant.

Similarly, the bench has competition, but will it really matter in the grand scheme of things? The Mets have some intriguingly skilled athletes being forced to compete with each other, while two relatively useless old men sit comfortably on the bench with guaranteed contracts. I love Julio Franco, but carrying a man of his limited skills on a National League roster in this day and age is an atrocity. Franco is a 7th-inning pinch-hitter — who needs a pinch-runner — and a weak option as a backup first baseman. If you say he’s capable of playing 2B and 3B, then I can see keeping him — but then why have the similarly limited Damion Easley as well? The final roster spot should come down to Easley vs. Franco, not the current situation of Ben Johnson vs. David Newhan. In fact, I’d even throw Anderson Hernandez into that mix. However it plays out on April 1 may not make a difference to the Mets’ position in the final standings. More likely, the bench will form similarly to the way it did last year: as a result of a combination of early-season injuries and promotions from AAA.

Ten days to Opening Day … the answers and decisions are coming quickly.

Orlando Hernandez made his first preseason appearance since being diagnosed with arthritis, and he looked so-so. Nothing to be concerned about, as his performance was similar to what he showed once every three or four starts in 2006. At times, he is magnificent. Other times, he is a little better than ordinary. And once in a while, he’s nearly awful. This is why counting on El Duque to be a front-end starter is frightening. While there is no question we want him in October, having to endure his rollercoaster performance in the regular season can be maddening. At this point in his career, he’s a #4 or #5 — the best we can expect is a 13-12 season, which is a far cry from a #2 starter on a playoff team.

Getting back to his spring training debut, El Duque looked to be in good shape, and offered his usual assortment of pitches at a thousand different speeds. His curveballs — both normal and slow — had good vertical bite, and he hit 87-88 a few times on the radar gun. The only thing of concern was his tendency to stay too upright on his pitches — possibly due to the neck issue. Though Hernandez doesn’t get too low on his release normally, he also doesn’t throw from the straight-up motion he was exhibiting in the game. On the few occasions he bent his back and got his head down and forward (almost always on curveballs), he made good pitches to good spots low in the zone. The rest of the time, he was hitting the upper half of the strike zone — not good.

On the other hand, Mike Pelfrey was living in the bottom half of the strike zone, continuing to throw hard sinkers for strikes. Still, he was not changing speeds much, and as a result was eventually hit hard. In the end, the numbers looked good, and he had good command. If he ever gets his changeup and slider going, the Mets could have another Brandon Webb.

Jason Vargas continued to impress. He’s a tough little bulldog, reminding me a bit of John Franco as far as the way he carries himself and challenges hitters. Though his fastball can sometimes run too straight, he nonetheless pounds the strike zone and insists that he get beat by getting hit. Almost always working ahead in the count, he mixes in an above-average change-up and fair breaking pitch. He also shows good athleticism and a tenacious, confident attitude. He’s a darkhorse to make the team, but if he keeps throwing fearless strikes, it will be difficult to send him south.

Joe Smith continues to look nasty. He may just sneak into the bullpen.

Ben Johnson also continues to impress. Before, he looked to be a tireless hustler in all phases of the game, with the potential to have some pop. In this latest game, the hustling continued and the potential became reality, as he jerked a three-run homer into the left-field stands. Less than five minutes later, Johnson made a great running catch on a dying quail off the bat of Roger Cedeno. Even without the homer, I’m liking Johnson, and hope he makes the team.

Random Notes

Willie Randolph sent Duaner Sanchez home for being late — his tardiness had become something of a habit over the last few days. We hope this is an issue that can be forgotten, but anyone who was around in the mid- to late-1980s may remember seemingly unimportant reports of Dwight Gooden arriving late to practice and games. Naturally, we’ll assume that Sanchez’s excuse for being late is due to laziness rather than drugs. Unfortunately, there’s that tiny strand of panic forcing awful thoughts into our heads. And assuming it is laziness, kudos to Willie for nipping the issue in the bud and setting Sanchez straight. There are plenty of quality arms fighting for spots (Burgos, Smith, Adkins) in the bullpen, and if Duaner isn’t taking his rehab seriously, there’s someone ready to steal his roster spot. Let’s hope Dirty does an about-face ASAP.

Shawn Green finally got his first hit, thank goodness. While standing on first base, it looked like the weight of the world had slid off his shoulders. (In fact, he was so giddy he stole second base.) Still, during most of the pitches he saw, he looked indecisive and tentative. Cause for concern? I don’t think so. I’m going to go out on a limb and assume that his look of discomfort is due to the fact that he is conscious of making a mechanical change in his swing. Thinking and hitting don’t mix, at least when it comes to mechanics. Hopefully, Green will continue to work hard on fixing his swing in the batting cage, and eventually the change will become unconscious effort in the game. I know that at least 60% of Mets fans are screaming for Milledge to start in RF, and another 35% think Endy Chavez should be starting, but the 5% of us pulling for Green know that, when “right”, Shawn Green can be a monster hitter — the kind that can carry a team. Yes, there’s a good chance that Green’s age has more to do with his demise than a simple mechanical flaw. But, if it really is a glitch, and the glitch can be fixed, the Mets will have the best #7 hitter in baseball history. Granted, in 2002 Jeromy Burnitz was destined to be the greatest #6 hitter ever, and we all know how that turned out.

Chip Ambres was part of the first round of cuts yesterday, which to me was slightly surprising. While Ambres is no star, he was a starting centerfielder in the Major Leagues for a two-month span as recently as 2005. He can play all three outfield positions, has good speed, great attitude, and is a good contact hitter — all assets that would make him an ideal pinch hitter and late-inning defensive replacement. Certainly, he’d be more helpful to the team than, say, Ruben Sierra — who can’t run nor field, yet is getting plenty of opportunities this spring. Ambres’ odds of making the team were huge, but I hoped he’d get a longer look. At this point, it appears he’ll be AAA filler, a good “organizational guy” who is destined for a career as a coach / manager.

Clint Nageotte was also among the first casualties. Too bad, as he looked fairly impressive in his first preseason appearance. We may see him at some point in the season, when / if injuries hit the staff.