Tom Glavine – obviously was working on the curveball, and it was looking good. Big, loopy, but good steep drop. His mechanics looked to be in regular-season form, and he worked at a quicker than normal pace which made him in control of setting the tempo. If he looks like this every start in 2007, he will legitimately fulfill his role as the #1 starter.

David Wright – Like Glavine, looks to already be in midseason form.

Carlos Beltran – Picking up right where he left off last year with the bat. His desire to win an MVP is evident by his readiness with the bat so early in the spring.

Steve Schmoll – finally got to see this guy in the flesh. Unfortunately, not impressed. Very ordinary, even as a funk thrower. For a guy who relies on an unusual delivery, he doesn’t hide the ball from the batter at all, which is incomprehensible for a sidewinder. In addition, his control was mediocre at best, at least on this day.

Jorge Sosa – it’s easy to see how he gave up so many gopher balls last year. Though he allowed “only” two dingers in his two innings of work, he easily could have allowed as many as four or five, based on his location. He threw a lot of fastballs over the heart of the plate, belt-high, with no movement. It looked as though he was throwing BP for a home run contest.

Chip Ambres – his number is 89, which is more fitting for his former career as a football player. With a number that high, you can figure it will take an enormous set of circumstances for him to make the team.

Clint Nageotte – intriguing. He has a strong, solid body, easy, repeatable mechanics, and it seems like everything he throws is moving down. Only got to see him throw one quick inning, but I liked the downward plane on his pitches and his location (knee high).

Jose A. Reyes – not quite as quick as the “other” Jose Reyes. In fact, he’s the second-slowest catcher on the team, slower than Ramon Castro and faster than Sandy Alomar, Jr. He cannot make the team simply because there is, and can be, only one Jose Reyes. Maybe he should take on a nickname, like Skippy.

Ambiorix Burgos – he throws gas, and everybody was hyped up about his picking up the save. However, let’s look at this from a more realistic perspective. It was the end of a spring training game, and so he faced AA and AAA batters. Though he threw with good velocity, his location was not as wonderfully low as Willie Randolph was saying — maybe being down in the dugout, below field level, was throwing off his perspective. In fact, most of his pitches were belt-high and higher, similar to Sosa. I’m excited by this kid’s potential, but not ready to hand him 7th and 8th inning responsibility just yet.

Judgments made on the first game of spring training are unfair to players. We pundits are holding their every move under a microscope. Further, we’re freaking out at the slightest aberrations and screaming with joy at the smallest accomplishments.

But that’s what happens when you’re without baseball for four months.

Watching yesterday’s first spring training contest, I tried very hard to be fair, and to filter my feelings while evaluating our beloved Mets. The final score is meaningless, so there will be no dwelling on it. Similarly, the hits, errors, and pitching lines mean nothing (sorry statheads). What does matter, is how players “look” — are they in shape? stronger? healthy? energetic? confident? mechanically sound?

One thing I noticed, above all, was how much I love watching these Mets. Nearly every batter who came to the plate, I was saying out loud, “this guy’s a great hitter to watch”. Likewise, I was very excited to watch the arms on the mound — and disappointed that Joe Smith was not summoned. You know it’s spring training when you’re bummed out by not by a loss but by not getting to see a sidewinding ROOGY with little chance of making the team.

Herewith my first impressions of selected individual players, in no logical order:

Jose Reyes – he looks thicker and like he’s filling out, based on his face and neck. He looks more confident at the plate, and “tight” as far as his swing goes. By “tight”, he looks more controlled as the pitch comes in, and seems to be letting the ball get deeper in the zone before committing. If he keeps this approach, he might walk 100 times and hit .300 again.

David Wright – made a few really nice plays on tough hops at third base.

Damion Easley – exactly as I remembered him as a regular 2B in Detroit: sloping shoulders make him look like he’s wearing his big brother’s uniform, a long loopy swing that seems mismatched for his undersized frame. I’ll reserve further judgment, because I look at him similarly to the way I looked at Jose Valentin this time last year — which was, why the heck did we give this guy a contract?

Shawn Green – didn’t look so hot at plate, as he was swinging and missing wildly. Hopefully its a function of getting used to his “old” mechanics. (He claims to have found a flaw with his hands going forward that robbed him of his power the last three years.)

Rick Peterson – dude, where’s the jacket? I half-expected to see gruesome scars or burn marks on his arms, figuring there was some logic behind wearing a jacket all the time.

Oliver Perez – totally inconsistent mechanics, off balance on most pitches. I know it was only his first time out, but Perez looked as unpredictable as last year. Watching his follow-through, he often finishes with his face completely turned around, facing shortstop. This is the result of too much side-to-side momentum and not enough up-and-down. I understand he has a low 3/4 arm slot, but he has to get a little more on top of the ball to get that nasty movement back. On occasion, he does get it right, and his resulting pitches are filthy. Repeating his mechanics will be his spring goal. The unJacket will have his hands full getting Ollie ready.

Carlos Delgado – looks great. A true pleasure to watch this guy swing the bat.

Ben Johnson – he hit the ball to the opposite field all three times at bat, which can be a good sign from a guy who’s a power hitter. He’s a hustler on bases and in the outfield is equally aggressive getting to the ball, and showed a strong, accurate arm. It’s clear he’s hungry to win a spot.

Alay Soler – looks like he lost a few pounds, thank goodness — though he still needs to shed another ten to 15. Another guy who occasionally has too much side-to-side and not enough up-and-down in his motion. For Soler, though, it’s more critical, as he’s more of an overhand guy who needs to get the leverage. He showed a helluva nice changeup.

Billy Wagner – he may have thrown one forkball … if so it looked good.

Mike Carp – he’s a big boy. Ron Darling mentioned that Gary Carter says Carp reminds him of Mike Jacobs. However, he reminds me of Darrell Hammond from SNL.

Lino Urdaneta – looked pretty impressive in his short stint. Solid, easy motion, good body, 93 MPH with command. Could be an interesting pickup.

Aaron Heilman – looked to be throwing more overhand than last year, wonder if he’s making a conscious effort to stay on top after the elbow surgery? He showed that nasty slider a few times, the one he shelves once the season starts. (Yes, Virginia, Aaron does throw a third pitch!)

David Newhan – looks like nothing special, but he did drive in two runs. He’s the kind of guy who will do the little things no one notices that win a ballgame.

Anderson Hernandez – will he ever hit ball out of infield? After seeing Rafael Belliard on the Tigers’ bench, I wonder if that’s AHern’s ceiling.

Julio Franco – I love him, but his bat looks so slow and now his vision is going. Several times he took two balls over middle of plate and gestured to the ump as if he was getting hosed. Either Julio needs to get his eyes checked, or it’s part of some ploy to entice the pitcher to throw it over the middle again. Of course, the moment I yell at the TV “retire already!” he goes and gets a 2-RBI basehit up the middle.

Ruben Gotay – can you say aggressive? He’s a swinging machine. Todd Cruz reincarnate.

Jon Adkins – solid, simple, efficient mechanics that are easily repeatable. Overhand curve. Sinker that runs in hard on RH. Why can’t he make the team?

Carlos Gomez – only saw him for a flash, but he looked tall and speedy. Face resembles AHern’s.

Ruben Sierra – ooof. Again, I’ll reserve judgment.

Moises Alou – does he really pee on hands?

Howard Johnson – great to see him in the Mets uniform again, coaching first base. His toupe, transplant, or Avacor treatments have made him at least ten years younger.

New Hats – what is with those crazy striped hats that make everyone look like Ronny Belliard? Trash ’em ASAP please.

On December 19th, the Mets added invited several non-roster players to spring training, among them, Chip Ambres. The move was about as loud as a mouse fart, though a few decibels quieter. Very few, if any, Mets fans know who Chip Ambres is, and if they do, they likely had no idea he would be stealing precious at-bats from Ruben Sierra, David Newhan, Ben Johnson, and Lastings Milledge, among others.

So who is this guy and what is he doing in Port St. Lucie?

First, Chip Ambres is an outfielder. He’s 27 years old, and played in 56 games last year in Omaha, for the Kansas City Royals AAA club. His only MLB experience came in 2005 with the Royals, when he played in 53 games and hit .241. His real name is Raymond.

I can see you’re still scratching your head, wondering why the Mets would bother to bring in a guy who couldn’t crack the Royals roster all of last year, at 27 is too old to be a prospect, and with such limited time in MLB can’t even offer veteran leadership or experience. So again, why is he donning the blue and orange in sunny St. Lucie right now?

In contrast to the negatives, Chip Ambres has some positives — enough for the Mets to give him a good hard look this spring. Ambres was drafted with the 27th pick in the first-round in 1998 by the Marlins out of West Brook HS in Beaumont, Texas, where he was a 2nd-Team All-American. However, he “slipped” that low because of signability concerns — football was his best sport. Ambres was a highly recruited QB — so skilled that Texas A&M signed him to a letter of intent and planned to change their offense to make best use of his talents. As a result, he signed late (for a $1.5M bonus) and didn’t start his professional career until 1999. He immediately turned heads by batting .353 in Rookie League as a 19-year-old, and Baseball America ranked him as the Marlins’ #7 prospect — one notch above Preston Wilson. He moved up to #6 in the organization in 2000, but had some injury issues and was overmatched in high-A ball, struggling to hit .231. The rest of his minor league career was marred by inconsistency and nagging leg injuries from his football days.

Two Useless Points of Digression / Trivia

Ironically, Ambres shared the outfield pasture with Choo Freeman at AA Carolina in 2002. Freeman had been a highly recruited wide receiver in 1998, also signing with Texas A&M but also eventually choosing baseball. There’s an old but interesting article about the two “finally” becoming teammates at Baseball America.

Strangely, the Seattle Mariners drafted him in the 30th round of the 2000 draft. I’m guessing they did not realize he was already a professional. Interestingly, he was chosen 9 spots after the Rockies threw away their pick on Virginia Tech’s Michael Vick. Maybe the 30th round is reserved for waste picks and quaterbacks?

Back to the Facts

Ambres had a strong 2004 in AA, batting .265 with 20 HRs 65 RBI and stealing 26 bases, but it was his second year in the league and he was 24 years old — too little, too late. After that season, he was granted free agency and caught on with the Boston Red Sox organization.

In 2005, he finally busted out, stealing 19 bases and hitting .294 with 10 HRs, 20 doubles, 3 triples and 50 RBI in only 84 games for Pawtucket. His breakout, half-season performance turned Ambres into a valuable commodity, and the Red Sox traded him to the Royals as part of the deal for Tony Graffanino on July 19th. The Royals immediately placed him on the Major League roster and inserted him into the #7 spot in the lineup the following day; he went 2-4 with a double in his big-league debut, as the Royals beat C.C. Sabathia and the Cleveland Indians. His next start came on July 21st and he went 2-4 again, with an RBI and a stolen base, as KC beat Ted Lilly and the Blue Jays. He hit his first Major League home run about a week later, against — would you believe — Scott Kazimir, as he had 2 RBI and 2 runs scored batting in the second spot in the lineup. His batting average at that point was .471, and through August was often in the starting lineup, usually either leadoff, second, or fifth. By the end of August, however, his bat cooled and his playing time lessened as the Royals gave more at-bats to Aaron Guiel. He spent much of September flip-flopping with Guiel as the Royals’ sometime starting centerfielder, batting leadoff or second. Clearly, Kansas City was trying to figure out which of the two were worth keeping on for 2006 — or they were showcasing their talents as trade bait.

As it turned out, Ambres and Guiel were the lead candidates in a competition for one of the backup outfielder spots in the Royals’ 2006 spring training. Unfortunately, neither impressed the Royals, Chip batting only .180 in the spring, and prospect Shane Costa came out of nowhere to make the club as the fifth outfielder. Guiel eventually was waived (to be picked up by the Yankees), and Ambres spent another injury-prone year in AAA, appearing in only 56 games and batting a dismal .203 before season-ending shoulder surgery on June 20th.

He may be a longshot to make the club, but he has some skills that could be useful to the Mets. When healthy, he runs with above-average Major League speed and can steal a base. At the plate the scouting reports say he has good plate discipline and strike zone judgment. In the field his arm is below average but he makes up for it with excellent range, athleticism, good instincts, and versatility — he can play all three outfield positions. In addition to his skills, Ambres has always been viewed as eager to learn, a hard worker, and an ideal teammate. His attitude is at least part of the reason he’s hung around pro ball for so long.

While Chip Ambres may be sent to minor league camp before the exhibition games start, if he’s healthy there’s a slight chance he’ll see some spring action. From his resume it doesn’t appear that he’ll be a threat to Shawn Green nor Moises Alou, but his skills and makeup might suit him perfectly as a bench player — an ideal righthanded bat to use as a pinch-hitter, with enough speed to stay on the bases (or be used as a pinch-runner). With a little luck, he could be this year’s Endy Chavez.

This week, before either player even stepped on to the field, many members of the media and blogosphere were debating the “competition” between Shawn Green and Lastings Milledge. (For the record, Willie Randolph has already stated that as of now, Green is his rightfielder.)

It’s clear to anyone with two eyes that Green is in the twilight of his career, while Milledge is on the way up. At the moment, Milledge has fresher raw skills, as Green’s previously all-around talents are diminishing quickly. However, Green has a mountain of experience that Milledge has yet to climb, and in baseball it is often the player with more guile who wins the battle. If pure, raw talent meant the most in our great American pastime, then Oliver Perez might be the #1 starter and not Tom Glavine.

While Randolph has already endorsed Green as his current rightfielder, he also stated, “Obviously he gets some respect for what he’s done and who he is. And to me right now he’s my right fielder. But you have to work and impress and show. … We come to spring training to compete.” In other words, it’s Green’s job to lose, which means that Milledge, Ben Johnson, and Endy Chavez all have at least some chance of winning the starting RF position.

In addition, Omar Minaya has recently stated, on several occasions, that Milledge will not be a bench player. If he’s not starting for the Mets, he’ll be starting in New Orleans. His logical reasoning is that Milledge needs reps, at-bats, and games to hone and polish those raw skills. A player can get much better playing every day at AAA than he can sitting the bench in MLB.

Or is there something else to it?

Over at MetsBlog, comment poster Danny brought up an intriguing issue concerning Lastings Milledge and the possibility of his taking the rightfield job from Shawn Green:

“… if they’re still close (i.e. Green can still be productive), I see them holding LM back to stall his arbitration clock. If they wait until mid-season or so, they will still get Lastings at the major league minimum for 2 more years, whereas if he starts from the beginning, the Mets might only get 1 more year of the major league minimum. While the Mets have deep pockets, the flexibility of Milledge at the lower salary is still appealing.”

Well now there is a whole new perspective on Shawn Green’s stability, and the trade for Ben Johnson. As fans we’d like to think that economics don’t factor into the fielding of a Major League team, but in reality they do. Of course they do. Shawn Green is being paid $4M this year, and it’s not to sit on the bench. Further, if Lastings Milledge indeed turns out to be the superstar everyone predicts, he’ll be very expensive. That’s at least part of the reason Ben Johnson is now a Met. And perhaps part of the David Newhan signing, as well as the reason Ruben Sierra and Chip Ambres were invited to camp.

While it’s true that the Mets are aiming to win a Championship, and it’s doubtful that they will allow business to get in the way of choosing one player over the other, you have to believe — by their offseason moves — that the economics are entering the picture. From a business perspective, the Mets’ brass would very much like to see Shawn Green have at least an average spring. He doesn’t have to hit .300, he merely has to hit the ball hard, field well well enough not to be a detriment, and appear to be in good shape. In other words, they want anything other than a meltdown. With Green’s history, experience, and approach to the game, it’s a safe bet that he’ll meet those expectations.

However, if by chance Green does become injured or falters terribly, the Mets will look first to Endy Chavez, second to Ben Johnson, third to David Newhan, fourth to Ruben Sierra, and fifth to Chip Ambres as his replacement. You might think it’s insane that Newhan, Sierra, and Ambres are even in the conversation, but in reality any of them — with a good spring — could conceivably be carried as part of a platoon with Chavez, Johnson, or Green (if Green loses his starting job, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s off the roster). To push the gap even further between Milledge and rightfield, remember also that Damion Easley is a natural second baseman, and Jose Valentin can play the outfield.

Let’s also not overlook the Moises Alou signing, which is getting lost in the Lastings Milledge story. Less than a year ago, many people thought the reason Cliff Floyd would not be re-signed was to make room for Milledge to start in leftfield. The Mets put a very quick end to that discussion by signing Alou early in the offseason, all but installing him as the everyday leftfielder.

Looking at the whole picture, and the number of possibilities, it looks as though the Mets have made a very strong effort to insure that Lastings Milledge begins the year in AAA. A big part of that decision no doubt is based on the feeling that Milledge needs more experience in the minors. But going to the lengths of acquiring Alou, Johnson, Newhan, and Easley, and bothering to bring in Sierra and Ambres, seems to me to be overkill. With all these much more experienced ballplayers in front of him, Milledge needs the combination of a mammoth spring and at least five competitors faltering, to make the big club.

With that kind of uphill battle against him, my “money” is on Mets’ management starting Milledge in the minors, and keeping him there until all other options have been completely exhausted.

Obviously, we won’t know anything about how the Mets’ pitching staff will shake out come the end of March. Right now, it’s all guesswork. Injuries can occur to anyone at anytime; for all we know, we’ll start the season with Tom Glavine and Billy Wagner on the DL. Or Willie Collazo will surprise everyone and make the team as the #5 starter.

Until the exhibition games start, we’re relegated to making projections based on assumptions. That said, here are some possibilities on how the Mets’ pitching staff will look come Opening Day.

1. Aaron Sele, Chan Ho Park, and Jorge Sosa all make the big-league team. Park is penciled in as the #5 starter, Sele as the “Darren Oliver” long man, and Sosa bounced between middle and long relief.

2. Jason Vargas, Alay Soler, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Adam Bostick, and Clint Nageotte start the year to comprise New Orleans’ starting rotation. Pelfrey and Humber are on strict pitch counts / innings limitations and are not expected to contribute to the big-league club until at least July. The others are considered to be part of an extended audition for the Major League rotation.

3. Ambiorix Burgos, Juan Padilla, Joe Smith, Marcos Carvajal start the season in New Orleans but will be counted on to continue developing and expected to join the big-league team at some point before the year is over. (Remember, Padilla is still recovering from last March’s Tommy John surgery. It may take him some time to come all the way back.)

4. Sandy Alomar, Jr. and Mike DeFelice are assigned to New Orleans to play the Crash Davis role of mentoring all these young arms.

5. Someone among the original starting rotation will falter and/or suffer an injury before the halfway point of the season. Sele and Sosa will get first cracks at spot starts, much in the same way Dave Williams, Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez were given opportunities last year. At the same time, the Mets will be closely watching Vargas, Soler, and Bostick, and if one of those three is dominating AAA, he will get a callup for a spot start.

Again, this is all guesswork is based on many assumptions — the most fragile assumption being that all of these people will be healthy. Of course, the chance of that is nil, which makes the quantity of arms — or as Omar likes to say, strength in numbers — a signficant strength. While it’s true that the Mets are without a true ace, Tom Glavine and El Duque are realistically back-end guys rather than front-end at this point in their careers, and the rest of the rotation is a collection of question marks, you still have to be impressed with the quality of reinforcements that will be at the ready come May, June, and beyond.

For example, people are looking past Vargas, Bostick, and Soler, but in reality these are three quality young arms that could be part of a starting rotation somewhere in MLB. Maybe that place would be Kansas City or Tampa Bay, but still they have the raw talent to be at the Big League level. Allowing them to further hone their skills at the AAA level could be the best thing for their careers, and exactly the preparation needed to make them into legit #4 or #5 starters (for the Mets, not Tampa Bay).

Similarly, with all the veteran arms available, the Mets can let Humber and Pelfrey take their time and develop at their own pace, yet still be ready to contribute to the stretch run in August and September. Speaking of developing at their own pace, the Mets will have the luxury of giving flamethrowers Ambiorix Burgos and Marcos Carvajal the opportunity get a handle on their erratic control, and perhaps even develop secondary pitches. There is a lot less pressure at the AAA level, and much more forgiveness — in the name of learning — when mistakes are made in the minors.

Finally, let’s not forget that Dave Williams and Guillermo Mota are scheduled to return sometime in May or June. That gives the Mets two more proven arms in the bullpen and in Williams, another candidate for the rotation.

In synopsis, as “bad” as the Mets’ starting rotation looks right now, it doesn’t appear to be something that will significantly hamper the team’s success, not when you look at the potential depth of arms that will be available. Unlike most teams, whose pitching staffs become decimated as a season wears on, the Mets will grow stronger as the months pass. Who else will be able to add a potentially lights-out setup man like Mota at the beginning of June? How many teams will have on their AAA squad two young triple-digit fastballers with MLB experience, one of which saved 18 American League games last year? Who else will have the likes of Pedro Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Philip Humber coming in to bolster the staff during the stretch run in September?

There will be a lot of talk regarding the weakness of the Mets starters all though March and most of April and May. However, the Mets are being built for the second half of the season, and by that time the cream will not only be rising to, but spilling over the top. The only thing guys like Park, Sosa, and Sele need to do is keep the seats warm until the reinforcements arrive.