Mets in Three-way for Overbay?
The latest column from Ken Rosenthal reports that the Mets, Cubs, and Blue Jays are engaged in talks that would send Luis Castillo to Chicago, Milton Bradley to Toronto, and Lyle Overbay to New York.
Hat tip to loyal MetsToday reader “isuzudude” for the link.
Before you get too excited, though, Rosenthal also reports,
The three-team possibility, according to one source, has “some legs, but not much.” The Jays are opposed to the deal, one source says — perhaps because new GM Alex Anthopolous does not want a trade for Bradley to be his first major move.
If such a deal did happen, Overbay would presumably take over at 1B, Dan Murphy would go to the bench, and a hole would be created at second base. The next popular move would be to sign Orlando Hudson to fill in the vacancy at 2B. This would definitely create a different look on the right side of the Mets’ infield — but is “different” necessarily “better”?
Personally, I like Hudson’s energy, attitude, and leadership skills — in regard to intangibles, I see him as an upgrade over Castillo. But the statheads will point out that, like Castillo, his glove is no longer gold — though, it is still better than what we saw from Luis this past season. Let’s look at the 2009 offensive comparison:
[TABLE=45]
As you can see, Castillo had the edge in OBP and steals, while Hudson had more power. You may also point out that Hudson had 22 more RBI, but — ironically — he drove in exactly 22 runs while hitting in the #3 spot in the lineup, while Castillo spent most of his season hitting #2, #8, #9, or leadoff. It could be argued that if Castillo had the opportunity to bat third in the lineup 40 times, he may also have had an extra 20 or so RBI — especially since he hit .325 with RISP (Hudson hit .264 with RISP).
Don’t get me wrong — I’m not necessarily making a case for Castillo. Given a choice, I’d prefer Hudson. But don’t get the idea that Hudson is a remarkable upgrade — especially if he will be spending most of his time in the second spot in the lineup, where OBP and taking pitches has more value than in other spots. In addition, chances are that Hudson will cost about as much as Castillo over the next two years. Most likely, his price will go up if the Mets have a big gaping hole at 2B.
As far as Overbay, he probably will be an upgrade over Murphy at 1B. But again, how much? There was a point in Overbay’s career when he appeared to be on the verge of All-Star status — ironically, that time coincided with the signing of a 4-year, $24M contract. He was locked up with that deal immediately after a season in which he hit .313 with 22 HR and 92-RBI. What was glazed over was the fact he was 29 years old during that career year — an age when many, many players reach their peak. His numbers have slid ever since, particularly in regard to power — his 16 HR last year were the most he’s hit since 2006.
Our favorite stathead Matt Himelfarb recently wrote an intriguing article suggesting an Overbay – Nick Evans platoon. Considering the sudden souring on Evans within the organization, that’s an unlikely scenario, but Matt does bring up good points about Overbay — namely, his ability to terrorize righthanded pitching. He also has been consistent in his ability to get on base, posting .372 and .358 OBPs the last two years. But, the Dan Murphy supporters believe that Murphy will revert to being a better on-base guy, and if that’s true, he and Overbay would be pretty much the same player (though Overbay would probably look a bit smoother on defense).
In the end, such a trade (and signing) would result in new faces, more money spent, but similar on-field results. However, many would argue, the Mets are in need of a change for the sake of change and nothing further.
Believe me, there are bigger problems in Met-Land than shedding ourselves of Castillo…but I wouldn’t mind the rumored “long-shot” 3-way deal that was floated yesterday.
Castillo to Cubs for Bradley
Bradley on to Toronto for Overbay
Supposedly, Toronto wants no part of Bradley – who could blame them – but if something like this materialized, I’d be happy.
If the Mets can move Castillo’s remaining 2 years (2 seasons that will provide him with ample opportunity to break-down on the Mets; with very little in the way of back-up option), then by all means….go right ahead.
As stated, there are other options on the market right now; in Polanco and Hudson…..and if the Mets ever decided to get creative, then who knows what they might decide upon. They could also move Murphy in a package; since Overbay would be manning 1st base for 2010 (and presuming Ike Davis continues to develop).
My thing with Castillo is: I don’t seem him as reliable in terms of long-term health. It was my issue with him when he was acquired, and has continued on through each time I see him gimping along on the basepaths.
If the Mets can move him, then why not? It’s not like his “Met-MVP caliber” 2009 season was anything to gush over. The Mets were no more than a bad Triple-A squad last season.
If Lyle Overbay came our way, while moving Castillo in the process — I’d be elated as a Met fan.
Ideally, I’d hope to swing a deal like the Overbay/Halladay one that was discussed on Metstoday a couple of weeks back.
All pipe-dreamy for this franchise, really – but you figure that after a disastrous 1st season in their new digs – that maybe someone in the front office wakes up to smell the Shake-Shack.
More than likely, this will just be a rumor and nothing from it will ever materialize. But at least the wheels are starting to get into motion.
Even if it’s not Overbay, if the Mets can swing a Castillo-for-short term solution at 1B, I’d be very much for it. Because that opens the door for a trade of Dan Murphy, and I would be tempted to offer him up to Florida in a package for Dan Uggla, who could then take over as the new 2B. And those of us clamoring for more power in the lineup would be appeased, all without spending $100M+ on Bay or Holliday, or without trading the farm for Adrian Gonzalez.
‘nutz: speaking of Halladay, rumor has it the Phillies are going to make a significant push for the Jays’ ace this winter, and seemingly have the expendable pieces to make it happen. Let’s hope someone else steps up to the plate this offseason and outbids the Phils, because a rotation headed by Halladay-Lee-Hamels is not one I want to mess with 18 times per season.
That’s basically what your posts boils down to for me.
Funny you talk about errors on the right side of the infield, since by the end of the 2009 season — Met official scorers had either gone blind, or were throwing pity-parties for Murph at first base.
I remember 3 specific instances where I’d seen an obvious “E-3” — yet errors were not charged to Young Daniel.
Let’s not go crazy with the hyperbole. That more or less defines the stupidity that we see at certain points on this “wretched” site.
Don’t let the door hit ya.
Exactly my sentiment. I really dont care for what. Its not a castillo issue, mine is that the 2009 Mets had decent hitting…statistically but drove in no runs…Castillo represents that output.
also i agree some faces need to change. BUT more than anything the rotation needs an exorcism.
And now yopu all want the great Lyle Overbay to play first so you can complain about his inability to hit the ball further than Luis does? Yes, he can field better than Daniel can, but no he can’t hit better, and he can’t drive in arun and he can’t steal as much as the Luis you all so ably despise. By all mean make this bad team worse by bringing in more has beens and never were’s to replace what we have now.
At the same time, as I alluded to in the post, most fans are tired of Castillo and nearly all fans want to see a change for the sake of change. And I can’t argue with that, after seeing this team disappoint us three years running.
Never been too high on Orlando Hudson — who I’ve always felt was overrated by many fans….but just comparing the 2 players:
Castillo and Polanco
Polanco is a month older, and still has both of his legs.
I’d prefer to move Castillo before he really becomes a broken-down old gray mare.
And for the record, the Dodgers actually acquired Ronnie Belliard (who raked in his short stint), for those of us thinking they went out and got Rafael — who played for the Pirates and Braves in the 80’s/90’s.
Who knows…maybe he’s in Omar’s next bag of tricks to back Castillo up next year.
I’ve always been a big fan of Placido Polanco, but isn’t he Luis Castillo with a little more power, a lot less OBP, and not much of an SB threat? Oh, and he provides more in terms of leadership.
Hmm … in other words, he’s Orlando Hudson. Or vice-versa.
I’d like to see Castillo and his contract jettisoned for someone of value, and replaced with O-Hud or Polanco on a reasonable 1-year deal.