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July 26, 2010 Opinion and Analysis Joe Janish

Can the Mets Afford to NOT Make a Change?

According to MetsBlog and other sources, the Mets’ braintrust (and I use that term loosely) is in meetings all day today to discuss the matter of the team’s 2-9 road trip and all-around suckiness.

Additionally — and also reported in various places — Omar Minaya refused to provide any assurances that the current manager and coaching staff would remain intact for the short-term.

Considering that this information is public, can the Mets afford not to make a change of some sort? In other words, at this point, knowing what we know, and feeling how we feel about the team — that it is sinking quickly and could be irrelevant once the NFL begins workouts — would we as fans be OK with the Mets emerging today and doing nothing?

Maybe, just maybe, a blockbuster trade could provide a glimmer of hope (i.e., convince fans to buy tickets in August and September). Unfortunately, Dan Haren and Cliff Lee have been dealt, and Roy Oswalt is unlikely to accept a trade to a New York team not named the Yankees — though, Adam Rubin has said the Mets aren’t interested anyway. As a result, there appear to be no high-impact, well-known All-Stars available on the market. I doubt very highly that Mets fans would be placated by the acquisition of the likes of Kevin Millwood, Ted Lilly, Scott Downs, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, or any other so-so pitcher — particularly since the problem lately has been the hitting. Unfortunately for the Mets, no big bat appears to be available — unless you think the Nats would consider trading Adam Dunn to an NL East rival.

So, short of coaxing Barry Bonds out of retirement or raising Babe Ruth from the dead, the Mets will have to make some kind of internal change. The question is, will the change they make be enough to convince fans that the team is on the right track, and worth the (hefty) price of a ticket at Citi Field?

Share your opinion in the comments: what can the Mets do to change your view of the team’s chances in 2010? That is, if you think anything CAN be done to save the 2010 season.

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Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. Andy July 26, 2010 at 1:37 pm
    I would go in a different direction: Dump salaries, and pass the savings on to the fans through a combination of lower ticket prices and credits for season ticket and package renewals.

    Beltran, Bay, Castillo, Rodriguez, Santana, etc. all may have some value to big market teams in actual pennant races who may be able to take on most of the salary and trade back some career minor leaguers to take the places of whoever gets called up from Buffalo to replace those big guys.

    I would even entertain offers from Pagan and R.A., who are great and cheap but having career years and probably presenting an opportunity to sell high for a nice package of prospects. Couldn’t the Twins or the Cards use one or both of them?

    To me, only Wright, Reyes, Thole, Pelf, Niese and Mejia are untouchable. Trade the hell out of everything else. This team is done.

    • Berbalerbs July 26, 2010 at 3:51 pm
      @Andy: I agree with the first paragraph, in that a salary dump/ticket price lowering could have a huge positive impact on this team now and forward, but you’d really want to add Pagan to that mix? For minor leaguers?!?

      Pagan isn’t having a “career year” as you claim, he’s having a “first full season any team has let him start.” If you look at his stats he gets better every year, he was great for us in the 2nd half of last year and the most consistent bat on our team this year, not to mention he’s under 30 and we have him on the cheap. I’d rather not take that and turn it into a few 20 year olds we roll the dice on developing…doesn’t always *cough cough F-Mart cough cough* work out, y’know?

      • Andy July 26, 2010 at 5:00 pm
        I like Pagan, but if the package is good enough I’d rather roll the dice. He’s not that young – a year older than Wright and 2 years older than Reyes. You are right that he should have been given more of a chance sooner, but it’s already possible that he’s at or near his peak.

        I don’t think of Pagan as a franchise player like Wright and Reyes are and Davis and Thole maybe will be someday. I wouldn’t sell him cheap (whereas Beltran, Bay and Castillo I’d give up for practically free to get the salaries dumped), but at this point I think you have to entertain offers. Look how the Mets missed the boat by not trading Barajas when they had the chance . . .

  2. mooshinator July 26, 2010 at 1:50 pm
    I’ve given up on this year, personally. The Mets are statistically not that far behind so yes, a hot streak could get them right back into it. However, watching them play I don’t have much hope that a hot streak will appear any time soon. So right now, for me, I want to see something to look forward to in the future. I want to see sunk costs dumped (e.g. Ollie, Castillo) and I want to see the Mets be deadline sellers. Anyone who won’t be contributing to the team 2 years from now (e.g. Beltran) should be traded for prospects even if it means eating a portion of the salary.

    If the Mets do that, I will be excited about watching August and September games to see the players of the future and to have some hope for two years from now.

    If the Mets go spend money on a half-ass bandaid for the rest of this year, I will spend August and September watching the Mets pretend to contend but falling short and then waiting for them to do nothing in the offseason because of salary constraints.

    There’s only one way the Mets make the playoffs this year, and that’s luck. The Mets have some talented players but they need them to (a) stay healthy, and (b) all return to some semblance of their career numbers, all at once. Maybe a new manager and coaching staff can accomplish that, but I doubt it. Maybe a new manager and coaching staff combined with some luck…

    Trading for more players isn’t the answer this year, the answer (if it exists) is figuring out why the players they have, the players that should be performing, aren’t.

  3. wasadeyo July 26, 2010 at 3:14 pm
    I can only think of one trade that would bring offensive power to the team. Trade Pagan and Ike to the Brewers for Prince Fielder.(if you want to take a risk on him) What is scary is the pitching prospects that the Braves have, that is ultimately how the Org. should develop talent. I look at the Mets farm system of pitchers and it’s depressing,maybe one or two good prospects along with a couple positional players. This is the weakness that surfaced last year when alot of players were injured. Better scouting and development of the farm system enables the middle class fan to attend the games lowers expectations and reduces pressure of the owners.When the decision came to be a big market team by the Wilpons,you have to make sure the product matches the cost. People really get negative when they spend all that money to go to the ballgame and the team isn’t very good. That’s why the Yankees are a success because they give the product for the money and if they don’t, heads are gonna roll. I don’t like that system for various reasons. I like the Twins type of system but even now they are starting to fall into the trap of big money players.
    • Joe Janish July 26, 2010 at 5:10 pm
      I doubt very highly that the Brewers would consider such a package. At minimum they’d want David Wright in return for Prince. Otherwise, you raise good points.
  4. Nick July 26, 2010 at 4:08 pm
    Last year I thought Minaya and Manuel should go.

    At the beginning of this year I thought Minaya and Manuel should go.

    When we were 8 games over .500 in June I thought Minaya and Manuel should go.

    Today, I think there’s only one thing we can do to help improve our chances in 2010 and beyond….