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April 4, 2011 Opinion and Analysis Joe Janish

The Good and the Bad Through Three Games

For most people, three games is a small sample size. But in New York, there is an entire season in every game.

Or at least, that’s how it seems, the way we mull over every pitch, hit, and error of each ballgame.

And since we have an entire day (!) to thoroughly examine the first three games of the year, let’s highlight some of the good and the bad of what we’ve seen so far.

The Good

If his first start of 2011 is any indication, R.A. Dickey appears to be the real thing; his carriage is unlikely to turn into a pumpkin at midnight. What the heck is Disney waiting for? Get that movie done already!

Willie Harris.

Jon Niese displayed dominant stuff in his first start of the season. If he can repeat his mechanics and keep that high three-quarter arm angle, 15 wins is not out of his reach.

Three games have passed and not one of them was finished by Francisco Rodriguez.

Brad Emaus and Dan Murphy have handled second base flawlessly. In fact, the Mets as a team have erred only once in their first three games.

Josh Thole is hitting .444 and is looking more comfortable than ever behind the plate.

D.J. Carrasco strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate is 27.00.

The team has drawn 14 walks. If they keep that pace they’ll walk 756 times. To put that in perspective, the Tampa Bay Rays led all of MLB with 672 bases on balls last year.

The Mets are tied for second place, only one game out.

Did I mention Willie Harris and his 1.355 OPS? Eh, it bears repeating.

The Bad

Mike Pelfrey’s first outing was a disaster, as were his mechanics. Let’s hope it was just a bad day.

Despite scoring 17 runs in their first three games, the Mets are hitting .205 (7-for-34) with runners in scoring position.

The pitching staff has walked 14 batters. If they keep that pace, they’ll walk 594 by the end of the year. To put that in perspective, the Cubs led MLB with 605 free passes in 2010; and, it would be 49 more than the Mets walked last year.

The offensive-minded Brad Emaus – Dan Murphy platoon at second base is hitting only .200.

K-Rod has already blown a save.

Willie Harris can’t get any better (or can he?).

What did I miss? Post your thoughts on the good and the bad through the first three games of the season. We have all day and all night and all morning tomorrow to discuss.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. Joe April 4, 2011 at 8:34 am
    I missed the inning, but the SNY announcers’ recap suggested that Eamus helped the Mets give up runs in the first inning of Saturday’s game.

    Beltran showed some life. Let’s see if he’s able to play on Tuesday.

  2. Henry Jasen April 4, 2011 at 1:39 pm
    The Good:
    The bullpen appeared competent
    The Bad:
    Willie Harris will regress to the mean.
    Daniel Murphy looked like Russ Davis diving for a groundball past him at first.
  3. Mike April 4, 2011 at 1:41 pm
    Good:
    Yeah I’d say Beltran is the biggest one you forgot. Running around the bases, looking comfortable in RF, hitting the ball hard.

    Wright looks less stressed and more comfortable at the plate than I’ve seen him in years.

    Collins is getting all his players involved, instead of running a few players into the ground or wasting players because he can’t manage in the NL.

    Bad:
    Duda did not impress at the plate, and he needs to keep getting at-bats.

    Hairston still doesn’t make sense to me over Nick Evans.

    Capuano doesn’t look like he will be effective as a reliever if he fails as a starter.

    Ugly:
    K-rod is the same awful closer I hate.

    Bay is on the DL.

    Hu jokes need to end…

    • Joe Janish April 4, 2011 at 10:03 pm
      I was afraid to mention Beltran for fear of jinxing him.

      Agreed on the Hu jokes. I’ve had my fill in one weekend.

      Also good points on Wright.

      As for Collins getting everyone into action … hmm … it’s only three games, so that one I can’t comment on yet. Especially when I thought Thole should’ve had the chance to hit against the LOOGY. But it is an arguable factor.

  4. Steve S. April 4, 2011 at 1:47 pm
    Hey, what about Ike??!! He looks awesome hitting so far!
  5. Mic April 4, 2011 at 4:16 pm
    Thank you Steve S for that intro……

    There are a few posts out there worthy of address …probably more than that Feliciano story..

    My first rant starts here.
    1. http://realdirtymets.com/2011/04/01/leading-off-for-the-mets-jose-reyes-but-for-how-long/

    http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/04/could-this-be-the-end-for-the-dynamic-duo.html

    http://www.nysportsday.com/2011/04/02/the-more-things-change/

    Do we need to start a Wright Reyes watch here too…

  6. Brandon April 4, 2011 at 4:16 pm
    You can throw Jose Reyes in with the bad through the first three games as well. .200 BA with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, 0 BB. He’s our leadoff hitter right? So he needs to on base, and then when he is on he needs to steal! Plus, he should cut his hair…he played better when it was short.
    • gary s. April 4, 2011 at 8:45 pm
      brandon, i agree ,, jose put up better numbers with short hair.. get it cut jose.. can anybody get splits on jose with short and long hair??
    • Joe Janish April 4, 2011 at 10:11 pm
      Actually I disagree. Yes the numbers so far look poor, but it’s a minuscule sample size. I don’t think Jose has shown a bad approach by any means — he’s taking pitches, and taking hacks at pitches he can handle, particularly with men on base, which is when you want him swinging. Drawing a walk is still somewhat dependent on the pitcher throwing balls, and I’m not sure he’s been given an opportunity to take a walk just yet.

      Again, though, it’s a tiny sample size. But I have faith that Jose will finish the year with 60-70+ walks — which isn’t tremendous but combined with 185-200+ hits should give him an OBP in the .350-360 range, and with his speed, should result in at least 110 runs scored in a productive lineup.

  7. Mic April 4, 2011 at 4:30 pm
    http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardball/up_wright_burden_wright_bat_yankees_MADI2RPVGLsH4Yt4xHLnwI

    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/wright_not_looking_to_jump_ship_af36nU3ypkIOJwSuU90RRJ?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=

  8. gary s. April 5, 2011 at 1:05 am
    joe, the trends would seem to indicate if he shaves his head of all of his hair he would have a .400 oba and be mvp of the national league ..