Update to Pagan Trade re: Luck
Update to my previous post evaluating the Mets’ trade with the Giants: I’ve heard some people claim that Pagan was unlucky in 2011, while Torres was not. On the surface, it doesn’t appear as though Pagan was much more unlucky than Torres in 2011. Pagan had a .285 BABIP last year, compared to career average of .314. Torres, meanwhile, had a .293 BABIP, compared to a .307 career average. There’s a difference, mind you, but I don’t think it’s really significant.
In fact Pagan’s xBABIP (expected BABIP) was exactly .315 last season. Torres’s, however, was even higher: .316. Yes Pagan’s LD% (24%), was much higher than Torres’s (15.35%). Contrary to popular belief, however, LD% only has a small correlation with BABIP
Overall, while Pagan was a better hitter than Torres in 2011, I think the fact Torres was a much better fielder last season, and was an equally better hitter in 2010, makes up for their offensive disparity last season.
While Pagan and Torres will be hard pressed to repeat their 2010 performance, I believe both are better than they showed in 2011 as well.