Michael Bourn Signs with Indians
The Bourn Ultimatum story ends in Cleveland.
According to various sources, free-agent center fielder Michael Bourn has agreed to a four-year, $48M deal with the Cleveland Indians.
I suppose we don’t need to worry about the protective status of the Mets’ #1 pick in this June’s draft. Unless, of course, the Mets decide to go after pitcher Kyle Lohse.
Surprised that Bourn chose Cleveland? Sure. Surprised that a Scott Boras client signed with a surprise club? Heck no.
The Indians already signed Nick Swisher this winter, and made a trade with the Reds for speedy center fielder Drew Stubbs. The two moves seemed to complete a Cleveland outfield that was returning Michael Brantley and part-timer (and former Met minor leaguer) Ezequiel Carrera. Adding Bourn to the mix would seem to create a surplus, though there is speculation that Swisher could move to 1B — a position seemingly slotted for yet another offseason acquisition, slugger Mark Reynolds.
Did the Mets’ late entry into the Bourn sweepstakes help Boras up his client’s price? Were the Mets used as leverage in the negotiations? Hard to say, but it does seem possible. Oh well, it was fun to read about Bourn’s availability, and the Mets’ interest, and their controversial 11th pick in the draft, every single day throughout the Mets blogosphere over the past three weeks. Right?
If in fact the Indians keep Swisher in an outfield corner, maybe this signing leads them to deal Stubbs — who could very well be a better option for the Mets at this point in New York’s rebuilding process. Stubbs is about as fast if not faster than Bourn, plays nearly as good on defense, has more power, hits from the right side, is two years younger, and a heckuva lot less expensive. On the negative side, Stubbs strikes out more often than Bourn — quite a feat — and has shown abysmal on-base ability, so he doesn’t profile as a leadoff hitter.
So, have at it in the comments. Are you sad that Bourn won’t be a Met, or believe it’s the best thing to happen? Do you think the Indians will make Stubbs available, and if so, should the Mets try to get him?
About the Author
Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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Sorry for being so harsh, but I just don’t see Valdespin as anything other than a bench guy. He’s too erratic and his attitude would be an issue if he was a better player than he is; the fact he’s marginal makes his attitude intolerable. The only reason he’s as advanced in his career as he is is because the Mets’ minor league system has very little else to offer.
You are being very harsh, and also very accurate. Valdespin is a huge risk, and that is before addressing his attitude, which supposedly isn’t the best. However, need creates interesting bedfellows. This team has no leadoff hitter, despite the damage control comments that Alderson or Collins or anyone will make. Bourn’s value can be debated, and whether the Mets should have been more aggressive or not can be debated, but what can’t be debated is that so far, Alderson has failed 100% in providing this team a bonafide leadoff hitter. Spin is the only internal candidate that has the skills (potential) to handle this role. And he is now at that make or break age, an age where you either start to grow up and get it or you find yourself on trhe outside looking in. I would tell him that I want to see a 36% OBP in sring training, minimum, because he is aditioning for the leadoff spot barring any moves. We all know these island kids need to hit their way to the bigs, and I can’t blame them, but once there those without big power need to adjust. No disrespect to Cowgill or Tejada or Baxter, I’d rather role the dice on a guy with more raw skills to set the table.
Five or six years ago, I wouldn’t be as impressed with Stubbs. But with the way homerun power has become such a rarity in the PEDs-testing era, his value has increased. He’s a better fielder than Kirk or Cowgill, has more raw speed, and has the bonus of homerun potential. In my mind it’s not even a contest. But, I also see Kirk as the next Jeremy Reed, and Cowgill as a righthanded Joe Orsulak.
Right now, Kirk’s floor (offensively) is probably Stubbs- that is, a bad hitter with moderate HR power that strikes out a ton. At the very least, however, we can hold out hope that Kirk can make some adjustments and improve his offense.
Granted, Stubbs is a better fielder than Nieuwenhuis. Stubbs is no Bourne/Peter Bourjos, but he is a major league center fielder. Does Nieuwenhuis have enough range to hold his own in center? I really don’t know.
Also, Stubbs 2012 stats may have been affected by his oblique injury.
I’m just glad that this is over. Now let’s find out what the Mets have with Cowgill, Capt. Kirk and MDD. Unless, that is, Alderson has another move up his unraveling sleeve.
How do the Mets have one of the worst run farm systems? Based on rankings that have come out this offseason from various sources you can put them at no worse than top 15, which is the top half of the league. They have gone from bottom three to top 15 in three seasons, a gargantuan feet.
Just throwing it out there for discussion.
I don’t see a change happening, because too many people making the decisions are very satisfied with the current execution and they are making too much money to be motivated to change. Change only happens when there is ample displeasure.
It is rare that I agree with you 100%, but in this case I can’t come to any other conclusion. AS Dan B. points out, technically there is still some “more time”, and my personal deadline is opening day, but the likelihood of a deal to get a bonafide leadoff hitter/CF is very low. Perhaps the can revisit Fowler, or Bourgos, but I can’t imagine the price in players to acquire one of these being less that losing the #11 pick. I think the Met interest was legit, but Alderson blew it big time on this one by not resolving the draft pick issue one way or the other earlier. Even if he was concerned that winning the appeal would cost leverage against Boras based on pressure from the fan base, this is his worst scenarioo possible – the Mets were the player’s first choice, the agreed on a deal, but waiting 2 weeks caused the player to (rightly) accept a different offer. My stance on Alderson has been give us a 2013 team without glaring holes liek the 2012 team, and right now the team has no leadoff hitter, no legit closer, and bad D at all 3 OF positions and 2B. That doesn’t cut it. Go sign Wilson today and figure out a way to pry a CF/leadoff hitter that can bring good D to the team for this year and beyond.
CF then would be for Den Dekker or the Mets go get Tony Campana to platoon with Cowgil. If Kirk has to stay in center, give Valdespin a chance to platoon in right. He had a 380 obp in winter league and has a much higher ceiling than Baxter.
I’m ok with giving Byrd or Brown the RH platoon spot in RF and sending Lutz to AAA to learn the OF and see if he can be a RH poor mans Alex Gordon (same height and weight,also converted to OF at 26 after spending entire career as 1B/3B).
I also feel like, although it wouldn’t be ideal, that Den Dekker could produce anywhere from Drew Stubbs to Mike Cameron offensive numbers with excellent defense.
Finally, having Den Dekker or Cowgil/Campana play CF with Kirk in RF makes a league average to below average defensive OF (Kirk/Cowgil, Baxter platoon,Duda in LF) into an above average defensive OF.
http://deadspin.com/5914786/the-11th-pick-in-the-mlb-player-draft-is-cursed-according-to-science
I was curious to see the history of the 11th pick because it was so dire we hold on to it even though we have no CF Speed leadoff ect ect ect.
Turns out the best player picked 11th was Greg Luzinski. Yup that great.
But recently Justin Smoak, McCutchen, Max Scherzer all were picked 11th so maybe the luck is changing.
Even though it isnt fun to give up a first rounder I would still rather have Bourn then the 11th pick.
We don’t know if adding Bourn would have made the Mets better than the Braves or Nats. The Mets have a starting staff that has the chance to be very good, and any team with a very food starting 5 has a chance, it’s why they play the games. Also, it is a little unfair to say Omar ravaged the minor league organization. Harvey, Ike, Tejada, Niese, and Murphy were all produced by his system, and Harvey, Ike, and Niese are currently part of the “cornerstones”. I wouldn’t give him a top grade but we do have to respect some long term contributions to the big club.
Just because one signing doesnt make you a first place team does not mean you dont sign any players.
Why would we want to add a guy who we know is Drew Stubbs?
And I’d be thrilled if Kirk suddenly had Stubbs’ foot speed and defensive prowess — then he’d have two legit above-average, plus MLB tools. At the moment he hasn’t displayed anything other than average defense.
If he doesn’t, then I don’t care who’s faster, I wouldn’t want either of them. Too many Ks.
(I guess if Stubbs was ’99 Andruw in CF, that’d make a difference, but I haven’t heard anyone claim that.)
Further, I don’t use OPS as a singular measure of a player’s value — especially one who plays a “skill” position up the middle. In centerfield, defense is the #1 priority. No, I don’t want a fantastic-fielding centerfielder who hits under .200, but I do place significant value on defensive skill — and Stubbs is at Gold Glove level. I also value rare, unteachable skills such as foot speed. Speed never slumps and is used both offensively and defensively. Stubbs is one of the ten fastest men in baseball, maybe among the top five. Even if Stubbs doesn’t appreciably improve his hitting, he’s still an upgrade over what the Mets have right now. If you disagree then you are assuming Nieuwenhuis and/or Cowgill are going to do something they’ve never done before — play a full MLB season and perform better than Stubbs. That’s fair, and I’d like to hear what it is about those two that makes you think they will do that well (I’m not being a smarty pants, I’m genuinely interested, because I know very little about Cowgill and have not seen enough of Kirk to feel overly optimistic about him improving dramatically).
The Mets are not in a position to trade away valuable minor-league chips for an established, “sure thing” centerfielder, and they lost out on Michael Bourn. In their current position, the Mets have to find “diamonds in the rough” and find value in players that others aren’t seeing. In most cases this is going to be a player who hasn’t been given a fair shot (like Cowgill) or a player coming off a down year (like Stubbs).
I’m not suggesting that the Mets should dangle Zack Wheeler in front of Cleveland to get Stubbs. I’m only suggesting that it’s worth kicking the tires on him and seeing if he can be had for someone the Mets are comfortable parting with.
I couldn’t agree with you more about the defensive aspects of CF. I slightly disagree in that I think parting with a few prospects (not named Wheeler, Harvey, or D’Arnaud) for a CF/leadoff to help in 2013 and beyond is a requirement. We don’t know how aggressive or as Sandy likes to say “in the mix” the Mets were on Span, or if they have had dialogue about Fowler, but these guys fit the profile – CF/leadoffs, decent gloves, young enough, controllable for 3 seasons. Maybe the price is too high, who knows, but I can’t believe the Rockies wouldn’t consider a package like Kirk or Den Dekker, Lutz, and a Fulmer-type given their current state.
Would you trade Lucas Duda straight up for Stubbs? Why or why not?
I’m curious because they’re similar in age and share similar stories of not meeting expectations / fulfilling perceived potential thus far.
In the end, I am not unhappy about this fiasco. I agree with the overall consensus that he was not worth more than a 3 year investment. If we were going to do that, I’d rather call the Jays and ask for Jose Reyes.