Mets Starting Pitcher Targets
One month later, Paul’s commendable list of starting pitching free-agent targets for the Mets is more or less irrelevant. That’s no fault of Paul, but rather the limited budget of the Mets combined with the very quickly developing free-agent market.
So who’s left for the Mets to target?
Paul’s choices were: Tim Hudson, Paul Maholm, Scott Feldman, Scott Kazmir, Aaron Harang, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Dan Haren. Well, Hudson and Haren are gone, and based on their deals (as well as that of Jason Vargas), I’m guessing that Kazmir will be out of the Mets’ reach. Further, I doubt the Mets will pony up the necessary dough to bring back Harang or Dice-K — who would seemingly cost in the neighborhood of one year, $6-7M. Feldman and Maholm, though, may still be in the cards.
Let’s consider others that could be targets of Sandy Alderson, based on the market activity we’ve seen so far, and what we think the Mets are willing pay.
First off, we should eliminate pitchers who won’t be signed by the Mets, mainly because they will be priced out of the Mets budget in terms of years or dollars:
Bronson Arroyo
Ubaldo Jimenez
Ervin Santana
Matt Garza
Scott Kazmir
Bartolo Colon
Hiroki Kuroda
A.J. Burnett
For various reasons, mostly having to do with economics, I don’t see the Mets in serious play for any of the above hurlers. There’s been talk about the Mets and Arroyo, but I see someone offering him a three-year deal, and I don’t see that team being the Mets.
Doubtful
Roy Halladay
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
Johan Santana
I don’t see the Mets going back to the well with Pelfrey or Santana. After seeing Josh Johnson get $7M, my guess is Halladay is getting at least that much, and the Mets can’t afford to spend that much on a dice roll. All reports suggest Hughes will get a two-year deal, which the Mets aren’t willing to offer.
Rolling the Dice
Colby Lewis
Scott Baker
Gavin Floyd
Clayton Richard
Jeff Karstens
Roy Oswalt
Edinson Volquez
Lewis, Baker, Floyd, Richard, and Karstens are all coming off arm injuries. Baker and Lewis would seem the best bets to make a successful and productive return in 2014, and could be targets of the Mets — though, both seem to be leaning toward returning to their previous clubs. Floyd may or may not be ready by June. For what it’s worth, Jason Marquis is also coming off TJ surgery, but won’t be around until August. Oswalt is the perennial wild card, and could be worth a gamble at the right price. One figures he’d prefer to sign with a pennant contender, but he might be interested in signing with ANYONE, to prove himself and become a deadline trading chip. Somehow, though, I’m not seeing it. Volquez was once an ace, now a disaster — see Oliver Perez. Is he worth a flyer? Maybe.
Scrap Heap
Freddy Garcia
Aaron Harang
Daisuke Matsuzaka
John Lannan
Scott Feldman
Erik Bedard
Barry Zito
Joe Saunders
Paul Maholm
Roberto Hernandez
Chris Capuano
Jason Hammel
Jeff Francis
Guess what, Mets fans? The above is everyone else that’s left. I’d say Maholm, Feldman, and Hammel are the best of the bunch, but when you look at what decent 4th starters are getting, I shudder to think what a decent 5th starter will command. Two to three years and $25M? That may price out the Mets. If not Maholm, Feldman, or Hammel, then who is left for the Mets to consider? It’s looking like a return of Capuano, Dice-K, and/or Harang — if they’re not offered better deals elsewhere. And as crazy as it sounds, that’s a distinct possibility. Teams gunning for the postseason saw what happened with the Dodgers, who had 8 starting pitchers in April, only to have a shortage come midseason. In other words, they’ll pay for depth, and overpay if necessary, particularly on one-year deals. Beyond those three former Mets, I could also see Long Island native Lannan sign with the hometown team. And after so many years of Barry Zito trade rumors, it would seem appropriate for the lefty to finish his career in Flushing. Or possibly, Roberto Hernandez can pitch as well as Fausto Carmona once did, and be 2014’s Francisco Liriano — though I wouldn’t bet on it. Forget Bedard — he’s the lefthanded version of Shaun Marcum, but more injury prone.
So there you have it. Have I properly evaluated the free agent market for starting pitchers from the Mets’ perspective? Did I miss anyone? Do you think the Mets will spend more than I think, and/or, will free agent starters be more willing to take less than I believe? Answer in the comments, and be sure to suggest who you think the Mets are targeting among the pool of free-agent starting pitchers available.
Didn’t they just do that by signing Chris Young?
In the old days, when baseball execs mulled their decisions, no one knew about it. Now we know — and can rant about it with fellow fans on sites like this! I figure it all works out. The Mets may be a terrible team at providing us happy things to discuss, but they may be the best team at providing us some kind of update fodder.
Astros Oswalt would have been a great example to Met pitchers of determination, discipline, and confidence, much like Santana. Now? I have no idea. If he’s willing to invest in playing for the Mets for the right dollar amount, I’d give him those dollars.
There was an ESPN article the other day about how Mussina should be a Hall of Famer — despite never winning a Cy Young or ERA title, he was constantly in the top 5 or 6. I instantly thought of Oswalt.
and 5th spots! Syndergaard will be up in june so they will
be fine and you don’t have to waste money and a spot for
one of the has been starting pitchers that are left to sign
and take the 22 million you have left and sign Granderson
or Beltran!!
Here is a my small list of reasons why they should sell
1) The Madoff Scam- b.s. they didn’t know
2) They don’t have money- but they still charge us tops in the league for tickets and tv subscriptions
3) They are not allocating enough $$$ from SNY to the ball club- Cablevision was probably giving us more 10 years ago
4) The Wilpons always put their foot in their mouths- by saying the wrong thing all of the time
5) By building citifield as a homage to more Brooklyn dodgers memorabilia than NY mets stuff
6) by letting Reyes walk without even making an offer
7) How is it possible that the Yankees have more than double our payroll when we play in the same city
8) We keep losing fans to our crosstown rivals when we had just as many fans as them just 15 years ago
9) How can they afford to build anything across the street from Citi if they have no $$$$
10) And how they didn’t retire Mike Piazzas number is beyond me
Please feel free to add more because I probably missed a ton more. I also think single game tickets at the stadium go on sale after the new year, so we should have time to organize this pretty well.
What do we need to organize something this big? We always talk the talk, now lets walk the walk.
Astros Oswalt would have been a great example to Met pitchers of determination, discipline, and confidence, much like Santana. Now? I have no idea. If he’s willing to invest in playing for the Mets for the right dollar amount, I’d give him those dollars.
There was an ESPN article the other day about how Mussina should be a Hall of Famer — despite never winning a Cy Young or ERA title, he was constantly in the top 5 or 6. I instantly thought of Oswalt.
If Jason Hammel really is considered Scrap Heap, and looks to be healthy for 2014, target him. Of the most realistic Mets options, he has the best stuff (solid velocity, wicked curve) and was the most effective (123 ERA+) most recently (2012).
I’ve soured a little on Arroyo after digging into his numbers — he seems to have benefited from some luck and some infield shifts, and oddly his stats weren’t dragged down by his home park. It’d still be nice to have an innings-eater who doesn’t walk people, but I wouldn’t be surprised at a Phillies Jamie Moyer performance. Is that the best use of the Mets’ limited dollars?
Agreed that the Mets won’t get Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Garza, Colon, Kuroda or Burnett. Lewis already signed. I think Kazmir will be cheaper and Arroyo might be a Mets target, so we’ll see.
I wish Pelf well but never want to see him as a Met again. Johan, I don’t see it. I’d love to gamble on Halladay, but no way he’d join the Mets unless we overpay like crazy.
I don’t consider Hughes, Volquez, Baker, Bedard, Zito, or Hernandez to be viable starting pitchers. Durable Mr. Zito would make nice AAA filler if no one gives him an MLB job.
The remaining guys have all their good days, and are probably better than AAA filler. Feldman will be pricey due to youth and stuff, but he’s never had results, so I say pass. Richard, Karstens and Floyd are good buy-low candidates who probably merit further examination. After that I’d go Capuano, Harang, Saunders, Garcia, Dice-K, Francis, Lannan in that order, though Dice-K may actually have the highest ceiling.
Minnesota needed some arms and they are throwing the dollars at it.
At least they are doing something about it I guess…
IMHO the Mets need to add three pitchers, and that is assuming they are not trading Gee, Niese, or Wheeler. One needs to be a legit big leaguer and they should not cut corners on this signing. Get someone good…better than Arroyo. The second needs to be a “scrap heap” big leaguers that will accept pitching in AAA. This guy needs to serve as kiddie insurance – Mejia health, Montero and Syndy readiness, innings limits. The last needs to be a legit veteran bullpen arm that can be closer insurance if Parnell or Black are not up to the task. These signings are essential, as all indications are that the Mets will come up short, and maybe way short, on filling the positional/line-up holes. How about a roll of the dice on Kazmir, 2 years at highest $$$ to avoid 3rd year. Then, wait it out and give a minor league invite to a scrap heaper that cannot get a big league deal.