Someone Wake Up Omar
On the heels of reading that the Washington Nationals are targeting Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey in a deal for Chad Cordero, the Phillies send a fourth (or fifth) outfielder and a bad middle reliever to the Astros in return for Brad Lidge … and the ‘stros threw in Eric Bruntlett as well!
Am I missing something here?
Let’s examine the deal again, in case I missed something.
Phillies give up: Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn, Mike Costanzo.
Astros give up: Brad Lidge, Eric Bruntlett.
Bourn is 25 years old and speedy. That’s about it. He projects to be an Endy Chavez, at best. Geary had one decent year out of the bullpen, hasn’t done much at all since. Reminds me a lot of Jon Adkins — or Guillermo Mota, for that matter. Costanzo is considered a “power hitting third base prospect” but as a 24-year-old spent 2007 in AA. He hit 27 HRs against inexperienced pitching, but he also struck out nearly 160 times. Most scouts project him as a first baseman, and wonder if he’ll struggle at AAA.
You’re telling me the Mets couldn’t have put together a similar, or more attractive package for Lidge, who despite hitting some bumps in the road remains potentially one of the most dominating relievers in the NL? And in this market, where everyone is begging for bullpen help, the Astros give him away this early and for this crappy a package? Unbelievable.
In comparison to what the Phillies gave up, a similar Mets package would have been Guillermo Mota, Endy Chavez, and Brett Harper. Harper is a free agent so I suppose the Mets would give up Mike Carp. Yes, no one wants to see Endy go but we’d get over it, I’m sure, especially if Carlos Gomez stays with the organization. Or maybe the Astros would be silly enough to take Ben Johnson off our hands — heck, we wouldn’t even ask for Bruntlett in the deal.
Lidge was perhaps THE most dominant closer in baseball in 2005. He had a really awful 2006, and was looking just as bad in the beginning of 2007. However, his pitching coach finally found a flaw in his mechanics and he began to “get it back”, though with some inconsistencies. The talent is there, the velocity is there, and the stuff is there. Before we compare him to Mota — who also has stuff and velocity — remember that Mota never dominated the way Lidge did. It’s in Lidge, he’s done it before, and if he could have been had for such a paltry package, I think you have to make it happen.
Meantime, Omar Minaya will talk to the Nats about getting a similar closer with setting up in his future — one also on the way down — in return for the Mets’ brightest prospects. You tell me which deal makes more sense.
As far as waking up Omar…
I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, here. It’s possible he WAS in on the Lidge sweepstakes and just lost out. Maybe the Astros value Bourn/Geary/Constanzo over Johnson/Muniz/Carp. Also, Omar’s last good trade was for Castillo, which wasn’t that long ago. There were trades he could have made (like for Dotel, Gagne, Linebrink) but they all would have cost us too much, and in hindsight those pitchers would not have helped much in 2007 and would have been free to walk this winter. And again, although we are hearing rumors of Pelfrey/Gomez for Chad Cordero and Gomez for Matt Garza, they are ONLY rumors at this point. No substance. Just hearsay. Created by God knows who. So I’m not attributing any weight to it whatsoever, and have confidence Omar IS awake and just hasn’t found the right trading partner yet. But odds are he will make a low-profile trade, using our unimportant prospects, to land a player who is more than likely to help out in 2008, whether it be Ramon Hernandez, or Cliff Lee, or Chad Cordero, or who ever. They say patience is a virtue. And being Met fans, we’ve learned that patience is the only way to stay sane.
But, the Mets DID get Castillo for garbage, so touche.
Also, I agree that the Lidge deal proves that a guy like Milledge, Gomez, or Pelfrey doesn’t HAVE TO be involved in a trade this offseason, to get a useful part in return. I really believe the Mets are going to trade a few nobodies to land Ramon Hernandez, for example.
Another thought to ponder: Ed Wade is GM w/ Houston, formerly of the Phillies. I’m wondering if he’s over-valuing Bourn and Geary because of his familiarity of them.
Also, outstanding — and key — point re: Ed Wade. He obviously has “Jim Duquette Disease” with regard to players he is familiar with. Similar to Duquette clogging the Baltimore Orioles roster with the Jay Paytons, Kris Bensons, and Orber Morenos.
That does not make sense: Especially if he went to Philly for THEIR trash. I suspect Omar wanted him but for Ahern, since he countered that (ala Benitez) Lidge can be lights out or lights on at any given time.
Note unlike his precedesors Omar throws $$$ at the problem; SP stuck with Benitez, Duq went low $$$ for Looper. Omar wants THE best in his key spots. He will use fodder to fill in the other areas (u cant have all-star millionaires at every position).
I think Humber and Pelfrey are at this point AAAA players and if they cant win a spot in the rotation, need to work in the pen. Or if not be traded to a AAAA club (for someone usefull though).
Everybody has their view: Mine is that i project Gomez as a Bobby Abreu to even Beltran type -possibly with less power.
You’re also contradicting yourself. “Omar throws $$$ at the problem” is not consistent with “u cant have all-star millionaires at every position.” I tend to agree more with the second statement than the first, anyway. If Omar throws money at all the problems, Soriano would be in LF instead of Alou, Matsuzaka would have been added to the rotation, and cheap guys like Valentin, Chavez, Maine, Perez, Heilman, and El Duque would not have been given such important roles on the team.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=666
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=665
Silver brings to the fore what WE have seen from Omar (countered by Willie). The use of cost control.
Several of us have written back and forth about the ebb and flow of the 25man roster;
a. Where does Millz and Gomez fit?
b. How to use Pelfrey and Humber
c. What happened with Heath, Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom?
d. etc
Omar installed Heilman, Wright and Reyes Period. Yes they developed, but Bell and even Ring could easily have part of the success story. How much worse would Bell and Ring be in place of Mota and Sho (LOOGY and ROOGY) and cost controlled to boot.
Has Willie learned to use all 25 men? Why cant Pelfrey be the next Heilman? The next Billy Wagner? and cost controlled at that.
While saying that about Pelfrey is a gamble, Millz is not a gamble (to me). At the league min you have a very athletic OF with good projections. Ditto for Gomez who (again to me) can fill in for Endy if Endy is traded to sweeten a deal. Note we have Veteran bench players in Easley and anderson who are good late inning hitters.
I also think, Omar will trade one of his 3 near ML ready pitchers. But Mulvey or Humber if not moved could be viable 6th starters. I REALLY like Humber, I think his curve is special. And if he can get his FB together to set up his curve (learning a change could help too), i think he is a starter. But a year in the pen at this point should not hurt him.
If in the future we add a Peavy, Santana, or a new LF next yr we need to look at the players who can help us that are cost controlled.
Isu: You and I both see the same thing- by throwing $$$ at the problem- Omar identified the closers role as a problem and threw $$$ at it. Other positions (IF-OF) are spots which he could cost control and add cheaper players who could supplement.
I think Beltran and Pedro were credibility, and recruiting additions as much as production. In fact many saw the addition of Beltran as not necessarily an upgrade over Cammy (when healthy). But this yr there are “holes” at catcher and the starting picthing. I think he could go after 2 SP this year though.