Will the Mets Win 75 Games in 2014?
It’s still early in the offseason, and the Mets may yet add more pieces to the puzzle.
But, with the way the team stands now, how many wins do you think it can accumulate in the 2014 season?
Inspired by loyal MetsToday reader and commenter “argonbunnies“:
There’s a call for W-L predictions upthread. I can never resist those, so here’s mine. As currently constructed, I think the 2014 Mets are set up for a 3rd straight 74-win season.
Granderson + Colon + Young are unlikely to make up for the loss of what Harvey and Byrd gave us in 2013, plus Gee and Wright might not be quite as good. Hawkins also had a very good year that will take some luck or some money (far more than the $2.5 mil the Rockies gave him) to replace.
The Mets’ best hope for improvement lies in the growth of their own young players. If d’Arnaud and Flores can hit the way scouts thought they would, and Lagares can hit the way he’s hit in other leagues, and Wheeler can find his filthy stuff without shredding his shoulder, then these Mets can crack .500. I’ll take the under on everything breaking the Mets’ way, but I’d guess someone will improve enough to offset the losses elsewhere and bring us back to 74 wins.
Add a SS, a bunch of good relievers, and good luck with the youngsters, and .500 should be achievable, with wild card contention a possibility. So we’ll see what the rest of the winter brings.
Make your prediction based on the current roster, and any comments on what kinds of additions will result in how many more wins.
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by Gee and Niese would send the mets close to if not over
500 and if Mejia or whoever is the 5th starter is (Montero) has a good year than maybe even better? The mets have the making of a solid if not a very good starting pitching staff and with Granderson who has the talent to have a better year than Byrd hr’s and rbi’s wise and Young who
should hit at least 20 hr’s along with Lagares from the
start of the season is a better out field than last years
and if Wright being healthy and having protection in the
line up not to mention a 5th hitter in Young and Travis on
the mets and in the line up from the beginning of the year
should help improve the mets from the start? Now if Ike
or Duda can produce the mets might just shock a lot of
people!!
I’m hoping with a few extra moves, the Mets can move up to 85 wins. I refuse to be downbeat over the situation until seeing the picture at the end of Spring Training. And I like some of the names mentioned in possible Davis trades.
Understood that last year Buck, Byrd and Harvey are all not on this year’s roster after making major contributions to some of the W’s they did collect last year, and there’s a question as to whether even that production has been replaced or not.
I personally think there’s easily the potential to get more from D’Arnaud and Granderson than Buck/Byrd, and even Colon than Harvey, given that he only pitched about 2/3 of the season.
Given how bad Gee was through May, when he looked dazed and admitted he “didn’t know what was going on”, and how great he was after, if he can just be consistent this year he’ll reproduce his production from last yr.
But you also have a full year from Wheeler, in which he could feasibly take a big step forward; you have the potential for major contributions from Mejia and Syndegaard come July. They can hardly get worse production from SS and 1B, so figure some measure of improvement. There’s just more roster depth overall, too, given that the developing talent is a year closer – Walters, Leathersich, Montero, etc etc. There will probably be another Lagares lurking in there – not to mention, there’s Lagares, who could take a step forward on offense.
It’s optimistic, and the Mets are great at throwing cold water on optimism – watch David Wright and Travis D’A open the season on the DL – but hey, it’s the winter time. Dare to dream.
I think being realistic, a demonstrable improvement (to .500-ish) will keep the inmates (as in, us) somewhat quiet. Another low 70’s win total will result in French revolution style uproar. But I actually truly don’t think that will happen.
K, maybe I should do some actual work, huh…
Suppose the Mets could win either (a) 70 games in 2014 and 90 in 2015 or (b) 80 games in 2014 and 85 in 2015. I’d sign up for (a) in a heartbeat.
Accordingly, the front office can only make me happy in two ways right now: (1) add so much more talent right away that the Mets compete in 2014, or (2) acquire enough top prospects to rank as a top-3 minor league organization and forecast sustained future success. This latter is easier said than done, so barring some genius moves, I’m with Dave.
I believe Alderson himself stated after the Colon signing that 2014 is about winning. It is Dec. 18, the 2014 team is a work in progress. I think win predictions should be held until the opening day roster is set. A couple of other points – Colon is not replacing Harvey, Wheeler is replacing Harvey. Colon is replacing Marcum/Hefner. Murphy had a solid offensive season last year but I would not call a .319 OBP maximum production, nor would I call Wright missing 30% of the season maximum production from 3rd. Yes, there are question marks and lots of work to be done, but it is still doable and there is time, if they really do want to win in 2014.
The outfield will be better with Lagares > Cowgill, Ankiel, et al. I think Lagares will hit, too (as he has in the minors and winter leagues). Granderson probably won’t be as good as Byrd ’13, but the two Youngs will be much better than Kirk, Brown, Baxter, and Valdespin.
Colon, Wheeler, Niese, Gee and Meija/Harang/whomever (followed by Syndergaard or Montero) will be at least as good as Harvey, Niese, Gee, Hefner, and Marcum. Wheeler will get 20 more starts and Gee 15.
The bullpen will be improved a bit, as well, even with the loss of Hawkins. Parnell should be healthy and close more games; Torres is a good long man/spot starter; Black has a good arm (and is here for the whole season); German, Rice, and Edgin are more experienced.
d’Arnaud, now healthy and with his 100 ABs late last year, should be an above-average hitter at catcher.
Duda should hit 20+ HRs and get on base, with Satin spelling him against tough lefties; Murphy is solid at 2B; and Wright play an additional 40+ games. The big problem is shortstop and leadoff, which I’m hoping will be improved via trade. And, anyway, SS can’t be worse this year than Tejada and Quintanilla were last year.
Anderson Hernandez hit well in the minors and winter leagues (I believe he won at least one, maybe two batting titles in the winter).
To me this is an extremely optimistic view of how individuals will perform. But that’s your right, that’s what this is all about, and we’ll see how it plays out.
I believe Lagares can play most of the time in CF if he manages his post-All-Star game OPS of .654 (which he should be able to do, even exceed.)
Change in present prediction: The Mets can win 77 games. With a couple of key additions, by trade and from the minors, they can win 81-82 games.
I’m guessing…not. But then, maybe you say to yourself, “yeah, that reads like a rabid dog, if the dog could type and was trained to attack Sandy Alderson on sight.”
In which case, hats off; you are never not awesome. Now come on, let’s do beers and have a real discussion sometime.
made me actually LOL. Props, Crozier.
I’m feeling sorry for Wheeler, as many, many fans seem to be expecting him to be as good as Harvey was last year — and Harvey was one of the top 3 pitchers in the league. Tall order for a young man.
The point I made regarding Wheeler being Harvey’s replacement was more from the profile perspective and not from the individual performance perspective. Yes, Harvey individually was dominant last year, so dominant in fact that his elbow broke. From that perspective, I hope Wheeler isn”t as dominant if it means pushing himself to the physical brink. What I mean is that Wheeler at the beginning of 2014 is in the same place Harvey was at the beginning of 2013 – 2nd year in the bigs, first full season in the bigs, potential to be a #2ish type starter but some uncertaintly as to how he will progress. Again, I see replacing Harvey’s 2013 as starting 26 games, throwing 170ish innings, and the Mets going 13-13 in hos starts, I don’t see it as putting up the Cy Young type peripherals, although those surely wouldn’t hurt. Also, regarding the Wheeler replacement, that would be the winner of the Mejia-Montero-deGrom-scrap heap-vet-invitee-yet-to-be-invited guy.
But the Mets do have several years to figure out a way to pay Harvey, d’Arnaud, Wheeler, etc. — I don’t think any of them are eligible for free agency until 2019. So it may be premature to be concerned, but it is still worthy of discussion.
So in 2014, Colon replaces Harvey, in whose 26 starts the Mets were also perfectly average. I think Colon can replicate that, and should fare better (I also think Harvey would do much, much better, but no point in whining). Granderson should be a small upgrade over Byrd, and I sure hope d’Arnaud improves over Buck’s dismal effort post-April.
If Granderson/Wright/C. Young/Duda (I’m guessing) mesh, there will be decent power in the middle of the lineup. This team will score more runs.
Yeah, if, if, if. But I don’t see how they don’t improve marginally over 74 wins, and mid-80s is definitely possible.
Granderson’s a better player than Byrd, but I’m not expecting Granderson’s 2014 to be better than Byrd’s 2013.
Marginal improvement sounds reasonable to me, but I’d call a jump of 7-10 more than marginal.
Just because the team finished well doesn’t mean that they’re going to be competitive in 2014. Not to mention, going 12-16 in September and 14-15 August isn’t exactly lighting the league on fire. The Mets were 3 games above .500 in the month of July, and that was the highlight of the season.
Pardon me for being pessimistic, but to me, the PR line of the Mets going .500 over the final 100 games is exactly that – a PR line.
To be clear, I really do think the Mets are a .500 club, inclusive of 2013. I get that the stats don’t back up that assertion, but bad luck did play a role in Harvey’s 26 starts. It wouldn’t have been out of line for the Mets to have finished with 77, 78 wins. So with more power in the lineup in 2014, I can see them as a better than .500 team. To argon’s earlier point, for all that’s worth.
I can also see injuries, etc. resulting in another 74-win season. But in any case, still way too early to tell.
Harvey has a shortened year and lack of run support led him to have less wins than even that warranted. Will Colon (who basically is his replacement) going to break down mid-August and have similar luck?
Granderson and Young with EY Young there, not coming later, is supposed to give us net nothing over the outfield we had last year since Byrd is not there? Guess Lagares perhaps having a full year won’t help give the team more than ONE more win either.
Likewise, Wheeler will be there from the start over Marcum or Laffey (remember him?). Syn. is likely to come in mid-season as well.
Also, as noted, I think there is likely to be at least one more piece. Will 1B be the same and SS too? We would assume there will be no upgrade, not even Tejeda having a decent year or whatever Tejeda replacement, not Quintilla spending months there instead.
Argonbunnies says “marginal improvement” sounds reasonable now. That is more than one more win. To me that sounds like around 80, give or take. I think the Mets should be put to the tend in ’14 and aim to be at least a .500 team, if not more — that is, get some mid-season help to push them so they don’t rely on scrubs in September. But, again, need to see what they do, especially at SS and maybe elsewhere.