Bullpen: Same Stuff Different Year

After last year’s “collapse”, we did something rare here at MetsToday: a statistical analysis. Yes, even an old school guy like me will once in a while check the numbers (though it gives me a headache).

For those who weren’t here, or don’t remember, we took a hard look at the Mets’ 2007 bullpen, then compared it to those of other top teams in the NL. Go ahead and re-read those posts, so you understand what’s going on with relief pitching in MLB lately. If you don’t have the time, here’s the gist:

To reiterate, establishing specific people with bullpen roles and expecting them to fulfill those roles from game 1 through 162 is suicide. There are simply too many innings to cover over that span, which require at minimum 9-10 arms that can share the load. The teams that stockpile the highest-quality arms — and/or can squeeze the most innings out of their starters — will be less susceptible to breakdowns in the last weeks of the season.

So, what did the 2008 Mets management learn from last year?

Nothing.

Because here we are at game 122, and the Mets have 4 pitchers among the top 20 in the NL in appearances. No other team has more than 2. The “bullpen roles” concept was used by Willie Randolph last year, but everyone forgot that when current savior Jerry Manuel announced that everyone in the bullpen would have roles. Everyone also forgot what a BAD IDEA it is to have set roles in the bullpen — regardless of how the pitchers themselves feel about it.

Here is a breakdown of the bullpen staff:

[TABLE=31]

Looking at the above, you can see that six pitchers have accounted for 303 of the team’s 381 relief innings — which comes to 80% of the workload. That’s alarming, considering that last season, only five teams had SEVEN pitchers account for that percentage of relief innings.

Maybe that didn’t come out clearly, so I’ll re-state it: Most teams don’t put that kind of workload on SEVEN pitchers, much less six.

This is easier to see if you refer back to this table from last year:

[TABLE=25]

Forget anyone’s “theories” as to why the Mets bullpen is suddenly a train wreck; a simple look at the numbers makes it as plain as day: the relievers are grossly overworked. Yet we keep hearing nonsense from radio jockeys, bloggers, journalists, other pundits, and Jerry Manuel himself — no one can seem to understand why the relief corps is having so much trouble lately. It’s as if people think Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Smith, and Sanchez are in some sort of unexplainable, mystical “slump”, or that they “stink”.

As much as the sabermetricians would like to believe that baseball is all about the numbers, there’s something called the human element that comes into play. And six human beings, without the advantage of HGH, steroids, or other PEDs, cannot pitch at a consistently high level under this stress.

To reiterate: the Mets NEEDED more arms to share the load. There needed to be more shuttling back and forth of guys like Claudio Vargas, Carlos Muniz, Brian Stokes, Willie Collazo, etc., to and from AAA, and USED when they were with the big club (it’s likely too late now to fix the situation). But since management remains enamored with this “bullpen roles” concept, we see the same five guys pitch every single game.

How they’ll make it through September remains to be seen.

Posted in Pitching Staff | 4 Comments

Mets Game 121: Win Over Nationals

Mets 9 Nationals 3

What’s that sound? It’s kind of like corduroy pants … a “ffft ffft” sound … ah yes! it’s the sound of a broom … the Mets sweep!

Yeah … shouldn’t be THAT big a deal when you sweep the worst team in baseball. But the Mets haven’t enjoyed too many of these, outside of their 10-game winning streak. So we’ll savor it.

Oliver Perez pitched deep into the seventh, finally exiting after 6 2/3 innings. He allowed three runs on six hits and three walks, striking out eight, in yet another strong performance. Ollie has been a revelation since Dan Warthen took over the pitching staff — and I don’t think it’s a coincidence.

And once again, the Mets took my advice in regard to fixing their bullpen — by scoring a bunch of runs.

The Mets had a 5-0 lead going into the seventh, so it wasn’t a big deal when Ollie finally cracked and allowed a three-spot. The two-run lead was slim, so the offense turned it up again, scoring four insurance runs in the top of the ninth to make the “closer” irrelevant. Up by six, it was no problem to bring in the much-maligned Aaron Heilman to finish the game — he could’ve given up a grand slam and the Mets still would have had a two-run cushion. See how nice this strategy works?

Notes

Daniel Murphy had only one hit, as he watched his average plummet to .441. I imagine Jerry Manuel will bat him in the second spot next game to get his bat going again.

Fernando Tatis had one official at-bat, collected a double during it, walked the three other times he came to the plate, and scored twice.

Surprisingly enough, the biggest blast of the game came off the bat of Brian Schneider — remember him? He’s the guy you keep seeing come to the plate, right before the pitcher, and ground out to first base. Schneider slugged his third homer of the season (and second against the Nats), which also accounted for his ninth extra-base hit in over 250 at-bats. Talk about a strange stat line — his slugging percentage is 35 points below his OBP (which is actually quite good).

Carlos Delgado also went deep, with a sweet opposite-field line drive that just made it over the left field wall. He’s looking like he did in his Toronto days, when he sprayed the ball all over the place with effortless power. I’m happy to heap on another healthy portion of humble pie.

For the second straight game, the Mets’ boxscore didn’t look like a team that scored nine runs. No one in the lineup collected more than one hit, and the five walks they drew was one less than Mets’ pitching allowed. Further, the Mets scored seven runs before the Nats committed an error (two, in fact, and both in the last frame). Even with the two dingers, it was hardly a slugfest. But I’m happy to take it!

Next Game

The Mets begin a threefour-game series in Pittsburgh, with the opener pitting Mike Pelfrey against Jason Davis in a 7:05 pm start on Friday night. With Doug Mintkiewicz one of their leading hitters, you’d think this weekend would be a cakewalk — but we saw what happened on Monday. Let’s hope the Mets play up to their capability, and not down to their competition.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 6 Comments

Mets Game 120: Win Over Nationals

Mets 12 Nationals 0

For once, the game was in the bag — from beginning, through the middle, and at the end.

It was only yesterday I suggested that the best solution for the Mets bullpen was to score more runs. Today was an excellent example of what I was talking about.

See, when you’re ahead by a dozen runs going into the sixth and seventh innings, it doesn’t matter whether you have a LOOGY to face a lefty, and you don’t have to pull your “interim closer” because he just loaded the bases.

And it doesn’t matter if John Maine can go only five innings, which he did in this game.

In his first start since coming off the DL, Maine pitched five scoreless frames, allowing one hit and four walks, striking out six. He wasn’t spectacular, but he was plenty good. Having a 12-run cushion made it very easy to pull John after 90 pitches, despite the fact he hadn’t let in a run. That big lead also made it easy to bring in Brian Stokes, effectively putting the rest of the game in cruise control.

The Mets scored in the first and second innings, then absolutely pummeled Nationals starter Jason Bergmann for 8 runs in the third. Bergmann looked terrible, and possibly injured, but was getting no relief — Manny Acta refused to get anyone warmed in the bullpen during the outburst, which bordered on painful even from a Mets fan’s standpoint.

Interestingly, there was only one extra-base hit in that explosive third, a two-out, two-run double by Carlos Beltran that closed the scoring. All the other runs and baserunners came via singles and walks — in fact, Bergmann walked five in the frame.

Notes

Fernando Tatis blasted his tenth homer of the season to lead off the second inning.

Daniel Murphy kept his hot hitting going with a 3-for-6 day. Did you order your Murphy’s Law T-Shirt yet?

Next Game

The Mets go for the sweep in another 7:10 pm start in DC. Oliver Perez goes to the mound against Colin Balester. I fear that Ollie will pitch “down” to the competition … perhaps someone should show him the standings prior to the game.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 7 Comments

Mets Game 119: Nationals

Mets 4 Nationals 3

The Mets won … but barely.

Once again, Johan Santana was very good, allowing three runs in seven strong innings. Finally, he was handed a “W”, as this time the Mets bullpen held down the fort.

In stark contrast to their performances of the last few days, Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano delivered six outs without allowing a run, saving Santana’s gem.

Offensively, the Mets were underwhelming, but good enough. Carlos Delgado opened the scoring with a two-run single in the first, Carlos Beltran drove home David Wright with a double in the third, and Damion Easley pushed home the Mets’ fourth run with a clutch hit by pitch with the bases loaded in the eighth.

Notes

Beltran finally did something of substance, going 3-for-4. Now would be a GREAT time for him to break out and go on one of his six-week hot streaks.

David Wright had two hits and scored two runs, but will continue to get lambasted by the pundits for not producing enough. His .387 OBP, .911 OPS, and 93 RBI (2nd best in the NL) are viewed as “underachieving”. Huh.

Jose Reyes had two hits and stole his 40th base. He leads the NL in hits (153) and is second in stolen bases to Willy Taveras’ 51. Reyes, of course, is “overrated”.

Strange Moves

The “jenius” of Jerry Manuel, or, “how to think yourself out of a rally”: let’s pinch-hit for Ramon Castro, who’s hitting .339 with runners on base, because he’s a righty and the pitcher is a righty … never mind that righties hit Saul Rivera 30 points higher than lefties.

Which in turn sets up a situation where your best option to pinch-hit for Johan Santana is Brian Schneider. First, are you SURE you want to remove Johan, at 94 pitches, in the top of the 8th of a game he’s pitching well, knowing you have no closer and no reliable setup man? Second, even if you have decided Johan will not throw another pitch, do you really believe Schneider is a better hitter than Santana? This is the same Schneider who in 200 more at-bats has only 2 more doubles than Santana.

As it turned out, the nonsensical moves of the 8th inning had no bearing on the outcome of the game. Further, we can thank Manuel for the bullpen’s spotless performance in this game. After all, Keith Hernandez suggested that Jerry “must have told the relievers that they need to throw strikes”. (Pardon me while I throw up in my mouth.)

Annoying SNY cheerleading aside, this was a nice win. Glad to see it IS possible to win games without a closer. That said — Billy, get back soon, please!

Next Game

Jerry Manuel’s Mets face the Nationals again on Wednesday at 7:10 pm. Jerry will send John Maine to the mound against Jason Bergmann.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 4 Comments

Bullpen Solution

Much has been made about the inefficiencies of the Mets bullpen this year. In particular, the number that keeps getting thrown out there is 20 blown saves — 13 of which resulted in losses.

I have a brilliant idea, and it doesn’t require the acquisition of a new pitcher:
Continue reading

Posted in Pitching Staff | 5 Comments

Minaya Makes a Move

That’s right, Mets GM Omar Minaya has finally made a move …

According to various reports — several of which are nearly reliable — Minaya has shifted the weight on his buttocks to his right hand. Previously, Minaya had been sitting with equal weight on both hands.

Whether this development will lead to a waiver claim, trade, or free-agent signing is anybody’s guess. However, it happened almost immediately after the Diamondbacks dealt for Adam Dunn.

What might this change in posture suggest? Here are some unqualified possibilities… Continue reading

Posted in Shea What?, Trades | Comments Off on Minaya Makes a Move

Mets Game 118: Loss to Pirates

Pirates 7 Mets 5

The Mets had one in the bag, a gimme, and threw it away.

Pedro Martinez put forth an excellent effort, allowing three hits, four walks, and one run in six innings, leaving the game with a 5-1 lead.

The key part of that sentence is “leaving the game” — which is the bane of a Mets starting pitcher lately.

That’s because the bullpen once again blew it. Blame Aaron Heilman for blowing the save, but also blame the contingent of Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano for allowing the Pirates to chip away. Smith and Pedro Lite were ineffective (to say the least), allowing three runs on two hits and two walks in two-thirds of an inning. Duaner Sanchez nailed the final out of the seventh and threw a scoreless eighth, setting up the save opp for Heilman, who imploded immediately.

Heilman struck out leadoff batter Nate McClouth, but after that allowed a single, a walk, a double, a hit by pitch, and a run before giving the ball to Scott Schoeneweis. Why Schoeneweis was brought in to the game with the bases loaded is anyone’s guess, as he’s allowed about 50% of inherited runners to score. Somehow, I suppose, his lefty vs. lefty stats are supposed to overrule. Scho did manage to get a fielder’s choice from lefty Brandon Moss, but proceeded to allow a two-run single to righty Steve Pearce to untie the game.

I’d detail the Mets’ scoring summary, but what’s the point? The lineup scored five runs, which wasn’t enough today.

Notes

For everyone who hates Billy Wagner, or doesn’t think he’s such a great closer, how are you feeling about his absence right now? Sometimes you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.

David Wright went 2-for-5 with 3 RBI. The other offensive star was Robinson Cancel, who also had two hits, including his first Major League homerun.

The two Carloses were a combined 2-for-8 with 2 walks, 1 run scored, and no RBI. I don’t mean to get on them, but, in a game against the worst-pitching team in the NL — and 29th overall in MLB — the middle of the order should be providing a bit more punch.

Daniel Murphy walked in a pinch-hitting appearance. Be sure to buy your Murphy Rules T-shirt today, while he’s still hot.

Next Game

The Mets travel to DC for a three-game set with the Nationals. Johan Santana will start the game for the Mets, but the real question is, who will finish? Odalis Perez begins the game for the Nats.

Posted in Mets 2008 Games | 6 Comments

Murphy’s Law T-Shirts

murphy-law200.jpgFinally, a T-shirt to show your support of Mets phenom Daniel Murphy!

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