It looks as if the MetsToday-sponsored #1 free-agent target of the offseason is about to sign elsewhere.

While MetsBlog recently reported that Carlos Silva was offered a 3-year, $30M deal by the Kansas City Royals, Ken Rosenthal is also reporting that the Mariners have put a 4-year, $44M contract on the table.

Also per Rosenthal, by signing Silva, the Mariners would be halfway toward their goal of adding two starting pitchers — with Eric Bedard their other target.

Huh.

So the M’s were looking to get TWO starters, and have already made a substantial offer to one of them. The Mets are trying to get just one and are floundering.

If in fact Silva accepts the offer from Seattle, the Mets would be left to choose from Livan Hernandez and, um, no one — at least as far as healthy free agent starters go. If they’re OK with gambling on less healthy options, there is still Jon Lieber, Bartolo Colon, Jason Jennings, Mark Prior, and Freddy Garcia.

In my opinion, it’s time to make a huge push for Prior, and then settle for either Jennings or Colon as a backup option. If the Mets were desperate for a starter, it might not make sense to go after a questionable guy like Prior, but at this point, if they’re not getting an innings-eater such as Silva, then they may as well take a gamble on someone who has a high ceiling. After all, they always have Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber to take the #5 spot if the gamble doesn’t pay off.

Omar Minaya has surprised us before, and in the past has made some outstanding trades as late as January. In fact, it was January 2006 that Minaya acquired Duaner Sanchez and John Maine in two separate deals.

However, assuming the Mets do not make any trades between now and spring training, this is what the 25-man roster looks like:

Pitchers

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Orlando Hernandez
3. John Maine
4. Oliver Perez
5. ?
6. Aaron Heilman
7. Billy Wagner
8. Pedro Feliciano
9. Scott Schoeneweis
10. Jorge Sosa
11. Joe Smith
12. Duaner Sanchez?

Catchers
13. Brian Schneider
14. Ramon Castro

Infield

15. Carlos Delgado
16. Luis Castillo
17. Jose Reyes
18. David Wright
19. Damion Easley

Outfield

20. Carlos Beltran
21. Moises Alou
22. Ryan Church
23. Endy Chavez
24. Marlon Anderson

25?

I don’t think there is any argument about the starting position players — all eight are pretty much set, barring injury. And though there may be some arguments, proposals, and ideas about moving Orlando Hernandez into the bullpen, I’m 99.9% sure that the Mets will see El Duque as a member of the starting rotation when pitchers and catchers report in mid-February. The big question — as it was in 2007 — will be who is the #5 starter. Mike Pelfrey? Phil Humber? Kevin Mulvey? Someone else? Pelfrey likely is the frontrunner, unless the Mets sign someone such as Livan Hernandez or one of the other veteran arms still on the market.

The bullpen, however, is less set. Wagner, Heilman, and Feliciano almost certainly own spots, and we’ll presume that Schoeneweis has one too based on his guaranteed contract. If Sanchez is healthy, he would take a spot. The last two openings, right now, are up for grabs, with Joe Smith the frontrunner for one of them, and Jorge Sosa the leading candidate to take the other.

Regardless of how the pitching staff shakes out, there most likely will be at minimum 12 roster spots slotted for pitching, leaving 13 for position players. Eight of those are the everyday starters. Four of the five bench spots will go to veterans Castro, Easley, Anderson, and Chavez.

So who is the 25th man?

We’d like to think it will be either Ruben Gotay or Carlos Gomez, but there’s a very good chance it is neither. While Gotay played very well last year — particularly in the first half — the fact that he doesn’t hit well from the right side and the presence of Damion Easley seriously hinder his chances. Had Easley not been retained, Gotay would have been the no-brainer as all-around utilityman. But we’ll have to suffer through a year of watching Easley’s slow bat drag through to a .235 average before Wille Randolph realizes 2007 was a fluke.

Gomez has an outside shot at winning a spot because he hits from the right side, but if the Mets are looking out for his best interests, they’ll likely want him to be playing every day in AAA than once a week in MLB. Gomez needs to develop his bat, and it’s hard to do that sitting on the bench all the time.

So who will be the 25th man?

Originally, I had thought Ben Johnson had an outside chance, but he was non-tendered and there hasn’t been any word of the Mets re-signing him. I would think that the last roster spot would go to a guy who can hit from the right side, or switch-hit, since Randolph is wary of using Ramon Castro as a pinch-hitter (as there is no “emergency catcher” on the roster). Further, I would think that the ideal guy would also have the ability to play both the outfield and first base, so that he could give Carlos Delgado and Ryan Church a breather now and then. Yes, I now that the current Company Line is that Damion Easley is that guy. Unfortunately, Easley is neither a first baseman nor an outfielder, but rather a guy who was put into those positions. (It’s kind of like calling Eli Marrero a centerfielder simply because Randolph once started him there.) In a perfect world, the Mets would find a player who can switch-hit and play the outfield, first base, and catcher — but then, wouldn’t every team like to have a guy with that flexibility?

Last year, the closest thing to the ideal 25th man the Mets had was either Julio Franco or Jeff Conine. By May it was apparent that Franco was a poisonous waste of space, but Conine might have been a nice bench guy if only he’d approached his career .285 average. As long as it’s true that Ryan Church is the everyday rightfielder — which means it makes sense for Carlos Gomez to spend some time in AAA — the Mets probably should find another Conine-type of guy. In other words, a solid, veteran, righthanded hitter who has postseason experience, can handle a bench role, can play the outfield and the corners, and is a positive clubhouse presence.

Unfortunately, there aren’t too many of those guys available — at least, not on the free-agent market. Here’s who I see as potential 25th men, and no, they don’t necessarily have all of the desired traits.

Robert Fick – can catch, play 1B, and the outfield. However, he’s a lefthanded hitter, and ideally we’re looking for a RH. Having him around, though, frees Ramon Castro to be used as a pinch-hitter.

Mike Sweeney – the best pure righthanded hitter currently available on the free agent market. However, he’s also arguably the most fragile, and has never been a part-time player. He probably is better suited to signing with an AL team to be a DH, but we can discuss him here because we’re throwing out all possibilities. He has no experience in the outfield, but he came up as a catcher and would have no problem being an “emergency” catcher if asked. If he can handle a bench role, he’d be a fantastic bat off the bench — and perhaps push Delgado into performing at first base.

Tony Clark – Like Sweeney, he’s not an outfielder, though I vaguely remember him lurching around leftfield once or twice back in 2003 for the Mets. He is, however, a switch-hitter, has played for the Mets before, and has been successful coming off the bench. Clark’s limited skillset makes him look a lot like Julio Franco, except that he puts a ball over the fence once about every 12-14 at-bats (while Franco put the ball just over the second baseman’s head at the same rate). By all accounts he’s a leader in the clubhouse as well.

Reggie Sanders – a solid big-league hitter and something of a good luck charm, as Sanders seems to appear in the World Series every other year — always in a different uniform. At age 40, he knows he’s no longer a starter nor a $5M player, and he would be an ideal RH bat off the bench, to occasionally spell Church in RF, and fill the DH role in interleague play. The one negative is he can’t play first base.

Preston Wilson – another player limited in the positions he can play, and his skills have eroded greatly in the past few years. Wouldn’t it be nice to see him back in a Mets uniform, though, if for nothing more than nostalgia?

Mike Piazza – OK, we know he’s not coming back. Oh, and that’s right, he can’t play first base — despite playing the position from little league through college. Imagine if he wasn’t such skirt about playing first base, though? He might still be a Met, for all we know. At the least, he wouldn’t be looking to finish his career in Japan.

Mark Bellhorn – next to Sweeney, this is my favorite choice. Bellhorn is a switch-hitter with pop who takes a lot of pitches. I like guys who take pitches and wear out the opposition. Generally speaking, he either strikes out, walks, or raps an extra-base hit. He has played every position on the diamond except catcher. He’s a tough s-o-b who plays with some fire — i.e., he will break up the double play and barrel over a catcher when necessary. He’s also fundamentally sound — he can drop a bunt when called upon, for example. Maybe the best part is that Bellhorn would not require a Major League contract, and would not be considered to be someone blocking the way of a Gotay or Gomez. Rather, he’d be like David Newhan was last year — a guy who can be shuttled back and forth between the bigs and the minors as necessary.

In the end, if the 25th man is not Gotay or Gomez, I’d hope it would be someone who, like Bellhorn, would not interfere with roster flexibility. We learned from the Julio Franco fiasco what happens when an immovable object is not performing but taking up one of those precious few bench spots.

Any other ideas out there? Post your ideas in the comments.

So, Tim Brown says that the Mets have made an offer to Kyle Lohse. Why, I’m not quite sure. Worse, the offer is supposedly in the four-year range. Ugh.

According to Brown on Yahoo:

Lohse is considering offers from the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, both of which could go to four years.

Are the Mets really that desperate, or silly, or are they just trying to drive up the price for Phillies? At his best, Lohse can be borderline dominating. The problem is, he’s at his best only once out of every eight starts. This is nothing new, it’s something he’s been doing his entire career. You want a comparison that strikes close to home? Victor Zambrano. So before someone pipes in saying that all Lohse needs is ten minutes with Rick Peterson …

Also, there’s been some interest in the blog circles surrounding Josh Towers, and I’m banging my head against the wall trying to find out why. Towers doesn’t throw particularly hard, doesn’t have great stuff, hasn’t had more than one decent full season, and is two years away from an ERA — 8.42 — that would make Jose Lima blush. Worse, he doesn’t even have the benefit of an injury as an excuse for his poor performance — he’s just plain bad.

I suppose the excitement comes from 2003, when he went 8-1 in 14 games, and from 2005, when he went 13-12 with a 3.71 ERA in the AL East for the Blue Jays. He was 28 years old that year, and I’m sorry to say, that may have been his peak. Looking more closely at that season, and it wasn’t quite as great as it looked (if 13-12 with a 3.71 ERA is in fact “great”). The Canadian blog “Batters Box” did a study on The Decline and Fall of Josh Towers a while back — check it out. Basically, they’re saying that Towers’ success in ’05 had much to do with luck as anything — and not the stathead kind of luck based on FIPs and BIPs and BABIP or whatever the hot acronym is these days but rather the luck of the draw. As in, the teams he faced. For example, several of his wins came against very weak teams, such as the Devil Rays, Royals, Nationals, Orioles, Astros, Brewers, Mariners, and Cubs. I wonder how well Mike Pelfrey or Phil Humber’s numbers would look at the end of the year if 10-15 of their starts came against sub-.500 teams?

Which is exactly my point. Before the Mets go signing someone who has had less MLB success than Brian Lawrence, why not just give the #5 spot to Pelfrey, Humber, or even Kevin Mulvey? While I do understand and fully support the idea of getting veteran arms for AAA depth, I think you at least have to find someone who has some skills, or has had some kind of success in the past. A Jon Lieber, a Bartolo Colon. Heck, I’d consider Jaret Wright or Wade Miller before Josh Towers — at least they both once tasted true success.

But enough of the fifth starter talk … aren’t the Mets supposed to be picking up an ace? Though, the chance of that seems to be diminishing every day. It appears to me that it’s going to be Johan Santana, or it’s going to be no one — at least, no other ace. I don’t see the Mets giving up a Santana-type package for Eric Bedard or Joe Blanton; they’re better off holding on to their youngsters and picking up the innings-eater we’ve been talking about all along.

Which leads me to my next point: the silence surrounding Carlos Silva is deafening. Not a peep from any corner of the globe. More significantly, not a breath from the Mets concerning Silva. Which makes you wonder if his signing is going to happen any day now. If not Silva, certainly Livan Hernandez, but haven’t we beaten this horse beyond death by now?

What do you think? Will the Mets take their Santana package and waste it on a #2 or #3 guy such as Bedard or Blanton?

The Colorado Rockies have signed setup reliever Luis Vizcaino to a two-year contract; the cash part of the deal has not yet been announced.

What happened to the four-year demands?

In addition, the Dodgers have reached an agreement with Hideki Kuroda. I don’t think the Mets were ever seriously interested in the Japanese hurler, but that’s one less arm available.

Not much left on the market at this point. The fragile Octavio Dotel is the only big-name reliever left. Matt Wise is looking more and more like a fantastic idea. In fact if the Mets signed Wise, and Duaner Sanchez looks healthy in February, it might make sense to move Aaron Heilman to the rotation as suggested here a week ago. (And yes I may harp on this idea several times between now and March.)

Let’s go Omar, make a move already!

Cliff Floyd has signed a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays; presumably 2008 will be his final year as a player and he most likely will be their full-time DH. Good for Cliffy, I hope he enjoys his ride out into the sunset.

Also, the Cardinals traded centerfielder Jim Edmonds to the Padres for an unknown third base prospect named David Freese. While Freese has a career .300 average in the minors, he’s already 24 years old and hasn’t gotten past high A-ball. If he was any kind of prospect, San Diego likely would not have traded starting second baseman Josh Barfield for unproven Kevin Kouzmanoff a year ago. It didn’t help Freese’s case that he has super stud Chase Headley in front of him at AA. I guess this means that St. Louis decided Edmonds was too old, too fragile, and too expensive to keep around, and that Rick Ankiel is the answer in center field.

For the Padres, it means Mike Cameron almost assuredly will not be re-signed — which makes one wonder, will Cameron land in Atlanta, his home?

By the way, the Padres also signed Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch to minor league deals; I might have considered Rusch for the Mets’ AAA squad, but I’m not losing sleep over it.

In other news, the Blue Jays signed David Eckstein to a one-year deal and invited Sal Fasano to spring training. I’m glad we have Luis Castillo, but I might not have minded Eck on the cheap one-year deal he signed with the Jay.s

The Rangers signed Japanese pitcher Kazuo Fukumori — good luck with that — and invited Edgardo Alfonzo to spring training. My heart is still with Fonzie and I hope he completes his comeback.

The Twins signed third baseman Mike Lamb. Ho hum.

Finally, lost in the commotion of the Valverde and Haren deals, the AZ Diamondbacks also picked up pitcher Billy Buckner from the Royals in exchange for spare part Alberto Callaspo. I don’t believe he’s related to THE Bill Buckner, but he might have enough talent to help out in the Diamondbacks bullpen next year.

The Mets, meanwhile, continue to rest on the laurels of acquiring Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. Since we haven’t heard boo from a rumors standpoint, I’ll go out on a limb and guess that something big is brewing.