Mets Game 30: Loss to Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks 3 Mets 1

It had to happen eventually — the Mets couldn’t win EVERY game in Arizona.

Mike Pelfrey pitched another mixed bag game. On the one hand, he kept the Mets in the game by allowing just two runs in 5 and one-third innings. On the other hand, the bookends of his start — the first and sixth innings — were shaky and glaring reminders of his immaturity.

Pelfrey’s first inning jitters returned, as he walked two batters and looked to be aiming the ball. It was getting painful to watch him throw ball after ball — it couldn’t have been much easier for big Mikey to endure. In the end, he gave up only one run, but the entire inning was a struggle.

In the sixth, Pelfrey hit Eric Byrnes to start the inning, and he allowed him to steal second base on a 3-0 pitch to Stephen Drew. No doubt the advance scouts are putting in their reports the fact that it is easy to steal on Pelfrey, and we’ll see more teams take advantage as the season wears on. Eventually, Drew bounced a ball to second base to move Byrnes to third, bringing Carlos Quentin to the plate. Pelfrey quickly got ahead of Quentin 0-2, seemingly setting him up for the slider. However, Ramon Castro called for an inside fastball, and Pelfrey hit Quentin in the hip. That was an opportune situation for Pelfrey to grow as a pitcher — by striking out Quentin. Instead, he went backward a step, and was removed from the game. No one said it was going to be easy for him.

Mike Pelfrey continues to struggle in the early innings, but improves as the game wears on. One has to wonder, does it mean he needs to extend his pregame warmup routine? Is it a mental issue? He looks lost and confused in the first two innings, then settles down and does a nice job of hitting spots with the sinker. Each inning seems to feed his confidence, making me think it’s more a mental thing than anything.

By the way, how awesome must it be to be a raw young pitcher like Pelfrey, returning to the dugout between innings to be schooled by future Hall-of-Famer Tom Glavine? Not many other young pitchers have that kind of a resource at their disposal.

It’s too bad the Mets had their “Sunday afternoon” lineup in place for this game, as Pelfrey pitched well enough to earn his first win of the season. Unfortunately, he’s now 0-4, which can’t be much of a confidence booster — for a kid in dire need of confidence.

The only Mets run came on a single by Ramon Castro in the fourth. Otherwise, the bats were lackluster, other than two hits — including one double — by Endy Chavez.

Notes

Despite hitting an opposite-field homer in this series, David Wright is not yet out of his slump. He’s still swinging with an uppercut, causing him to get beat on pitches inside and popping balls up. Swinging with a lift turns Wright from a tough out into an ordinary hitter with vulnerable holes in his swing.

Shawn Green has done a great job of seeing the ball and getting himself into good counts all year, but in this game he looked really locked in. Earlier in the season, he looked like he was constantly thinking, trying to figure something out. But against Livan Hernandez, he had a look on his face that exuded extreme confidence: a man with a plan. If Wright continues to struggle, Willie may consider moving Green up in the lineup while he’s swinging a hot stick.

Something that may have gotten lost in the boxscore, but was a major disappointment, came in the top of the seventh inning. Down 3-1 with one out, pinch-hitter Damion Easley worked a walk. Jose Reyes then took a defensive swing at the first pitch, which was low and outside. The result was a weak foul fly ball that Eric Byrnes caught for the second out. Endy Chavez followed by swinging at the first pitch — once again, low and outside — and bounced weakly to first base. Why both Reyes and Chavez were swinging at the first pitch, down by two so late in the game, against Livan Hernandez — who might have been starting to tire — defies comprehension. Their over-aggressiveness effectively erased a good at-bat by the veteran Easley, and instead of getting Hernandez on the ropes, they handed him an easy inning.

Lino Urdaneta finally has an ERA, albeit a very high one. He pitched two-thirds of an inning without allowing a run.

Jose Reyes dove to stop a ground ball by Quentin, then threw a one-hop bullet to Delgado — from a seated position. Reyes snapped off the ball while sitting back on his butt, and still got Quentin by several steps.

Ruben Gotay made some flashy plays at second base, including two glove flips. The first was shuffled to Delgado after he charged a slow grounder, the second came on a miraculous backhand stop behind second base that Reyes bobbled. Had Reyes caught the ball cleanly, it no doubt would have been an ESPN web gem. Gotay also had a very good at-bat in the top of the ninth against Jose Valverde, which culminated in a searing line drive right at second baseman Orlando Hudson. The Mets may have something here with Gotay.

Next Game

Oliver Perez takes the hill in San Francisco against Barry Zito. It’s a 10:15 PM EST start. Man I hate the late-night, Left Coast games.

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Mets Game 29: Win over Diamondbacks

Mets 6 Diamondbacks 2

Going against reigning Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb, not much was expected of Jorge Sosa. The Mets hoped he could somehow get through five innings and hold the Diamondbacks to a few runs in what promised to be a low-scoring game. In other words, keep the Mets in the game, keep things close enough to give the bats a chance to win. If he could do that, Willie Randolph would be ecstatic.

Instead, Sosa gave Willie six and one-third innings of shutout ball.

In those 6 1/3, Sosa gave up 4 hits, 2 walks and 1 earned run, striking out 3 in the process. 65 of his 101 pitches were strikes, as he mixed a 95-MPH fastball with a diving slider. Simply put, he did more than keep the Mets in the game — he handed them an opportunity to win.

Sosa seemed a bit nervous in the first inning, giving up a single and a walk, but settled down to end the threat without a run. Few believed it would be Arizona’s best chance to score for the next five innings.

In the top of the second, Shawn Green dropped an opposite-field, two-run homer over the leftfield fence to provide a seemingly fragile lead that stood for much of the game.

Then the dam burst.

It started out simply enough — two walks issued to the two Carloses by Brandon Webb to start the inning. Paul LoDuca followed with a line drive single to leftfield that went under Jerry Hairston’s glove and to the wall, scoring Beltran and Delgado and landing LoDuca on third. A few pitches later, Shawn Green jumped on a high change-up and sent a grounder up the middle to score LoDuca. Green stole second and was advanced to third on a chopper back to the pitcher hit by Damion Easley. Endy Chavez followed with a sacrifice fly to score Green and make the score 6-0.

Other than the homer to Green, Webb had pitched very well up to that point. He clearly had run out of gas but D’Backs manager Bob Melvin was caught blindsided by the sudden lack of effectiveness, and had no one getting ready in the bullpen. It was up to Webb to get himself out of the inning, and luckily for the Mets, he wasn’t up to the task.

Notes

Brandon Webb had a lot of fun in the early innings displaying his overhand curveball. His 12-6 deuce is a prime example of why I disagree with Rick Peterson’s decision to ditch Mike Pelfrey’s curve. I simply do not buy into the idea that sinkerballers have to be sinker-slider pitchers, nor that the slider is a more appropriate complement to a sinker than a curve. The reason I prefer a curve is that it can and should be thrown in the strike zone; it’s a pitch you throw for strikes. In contrast, the slider is a pitch that is more effective when thrown OUT of the strike zone; when pitchers force it over the plate, it tends to flatten and be very hittable. Even John Smoltz’s nasty slider is vulnerable when thrown for a strike. OK, I’ve stepped down off the soapbox … just had to get that off my chest.

David Wright had shown signs of breaking out of his slump, but is now 1-13 in this series. He’s still taking more of an uppercut swing as opposed to the more level, line-drive cut he used previous to last year’s All-Star game. Last week, Keith Hernandez also pointed out a more pronounced front leg lift, which may also be throwing things off. Until he corrects these issues, Wright can forget about being a .300 hitter again.

Delgado, on the other hand, is stroking the ball better, though he is still swinging too hard on occasion. Watch him and you’ll see that both of his feet leave the ground when he swings and misses — he’s actually jumping at the ball. He’ll be fine once he starts staying back and taking a more controlled swing.

Sosa may have benefitted from a weak Arizona lineup. His inability to throw anything other than the fastball for a strike could make him vulnerable to stronger offenses. (Similarly, John Maine had trouble spotting off-speed pitches on Friday night, but it didn’t seem to matter much against Arizona’s weak bats.) However, you can’t knock his guts and ability to rise to the occasion in this standout performance. At the very least, he deserves another start — if needed.

Joe Smith did what he needed to do to preserve the shutout, inducing a routine double-play grounder from Chris Snyder in the seventh. However, Jose Reyes botched the transfer from Damion Easley, and Snyder reached base safely to extend the inning. Pinch-hitter Miguel Montero doubled over the head of Endy Chavez to score two runs. Smith then struck out Eric Byrnes to end the inning.

Pedro Feliciano and Aaron Heilman did their usual thing to close out a game that had been over since the second inning.

For those that missed it, Amby Burgos was sent down to make room for Sosa. So, Lino Urdaneta may yet get a chance to turn that sideways eight into a real number.

Next Game

Mike Pelfrey faces Livan Hernandez at 4:40 PM EST in a Sunday afternoon game.

In the 9th inning of the first game of this series, things looked bleak for the Mets. They were down 4-3, Jose Valverde looked to be on his way to an 11th save, and the possibility of being swept seemed entirely plausible. After all, John Maine was due to take a loss (wasn’t he?), the always-tough Brandon Webb was on the hill on Saturday night, and if they had lost the first three, it seemed very unlikely that Pelfrey would have a chance to beat the wily veteran Hernandez.

However, the combination of a meltdown by Valverde and one sweet swing of the bat by Damion Easley turned not just the game, but the entire series around. Now, a sweep is indeed possible, but by the Mets OVER the D’Backs.

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Are the Mets Too Old?

Were the critics correct?

The preseason pundits told us that the Mets would not repeat as NL East champions because:

  • The starting pitchers were too old or too young to be effective
  • Moises Alou was too old and injury-prone
  • Shawn Green’s bat was slowing down, and at the end of his career
  • Jose Valentin was too old, and would never repeat his 2006 renaissance season
  • The bullpen would sorely miss Duaner Sanchez, Chad Bradford, and Guillermo Mota

For the first few weeks of the season, the 2007 Mets seemed on the road to disprove the naysayers. Shawn Green stroking a base hitThey began the season with an exclamation point, sweeping the reigning World Champion Cardinals in St. Louis. Their starting pitching was clearly the team’s strength, as the four-man rotation of Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez was routinely pitching into and past the 7th inning. Moises Alou was red-hot, leading the NL in batting for a short time, and the “slow” bat of Shawn Green was right on his heels. Jose Valentin was hitting around .270, getting clutch hits, but more importantly, flashing a gold-like glove around the keystone.

Then May came, and the wheels fell off.

All at once, it seemed, the Mets were breaking down — just as the pundits predicted. El Duque developed bursitis in his shoulder; Jose Valentin tore his ACL; Moises Alou split his lip and injured his shoulder; Mike Pelfrey’s sinker was pilfered; Aaron Heilman was looking like a deer in headlights; and neither David Wright nor Carlos Delgado could buy a homer, hit, or RBI.

And all that happened BEFORE the Mets lost two in a row at home to the Florida Marlins, getting shut down by the 6.27 ERA of Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco, a guy who went 0-3 with a 19.72 ERA against the Mets in 2006.

In the meantime, the Braves took over first place, the barking Phillies continue to creep up in the standings, and the pundits are patting each other on the back.

Since losing the series to the Fish, the outlook has been mixed. On the one hand, David Wright finally broke out of his slump, hitting his first homerun of the year. On the other, Alou can now add a knee problem to his growing list of ailments. Additionally, Chan Ho Park looked absolutely abysmal in El Duque’s place, and despite a win, Aaron Heilman still looks lost. One thing going for the Mets is that they are starting to get the clutch hits — though Delgado still isn’t stroking the ball the way he should, and 48-year-old Julio Franco is currently outperforming him at bat and in the field. And, after winning their first two games in Arizona, the Mets are back in first — though in a tenuous tie with Atlanta.

Is it time to panic? Are the Mets really too old, too fragile, and too challenged in the pitching department?

Probably not. There are still five months to turn things around, and close to 85% of the season lies ahead. The good news is, the future looks bright, and help is on the way.

For one thing, consider that the Mets started out 15-10, a half game out of first, while getting next to no production from their #4 and #5 hitters. It is silly to believe that Carlos Delgado’s batting average will remain below the Mendoza Line, and Wright looks to be on the way back to his old self. Getting those two bats back into swing of things is a wonderful thing to look forward to, and key to jumpstarting the slumping offense.

Similarly, we can look forward to pitching help arriving from the farm. For example, though Chan Ho Park appears to be a bust, the reclamation project of Jorge Sosa looks to be going very well. Pitching in the homer-happy PCL, Sosa has a 4-0 record and a 1.12 ERA — a considerable achievement, considering that his biggest bugaboo has been allowing balls to fly over the fence. His quick start undoubtedly would have earned him a promotion over Park, but the scheduling didn’t work in his favor. We’ll see tonight if Sosa is the real goods or if his four games in AAA were a fluke.

Philip Humber fires a pitchAnd if Sosa is not the answer, youngsters Philip Humber and Jason Vargas continue to progress, and appear to be on the brink of being helpful at the big league level. Sosa’s hot start means the Mets don’t have to rush either of those arms, and let them develop on their own pace. If they keep improving, one or the other — or both — could be at Shea by mid-June, if needed.

Speaking of June, that’s when Guillermo Mota should be back to help Aaron Heilman with the 8th-inning setup role. Additionally, Dave Williams could be back to provide some middle relief — or starting depth — if needed. And though no one’s counting on him for this year, Pedro Martinez continues to be slightly ahead of schedule in his comeback from rotator cuff surgery. Anything Pedro provides will be a bonus.

In the field, Damion Easley is already filling in nicely for Valentin, providing a flair for the dramatic with the bat and turning double plays. Plus, the nearly forgotten Ruben Gotay has leapfrogged over Anderson Hernandez, and could be a pleasant surprise. Meanwhile, the nagging injuries suffered by Alou offer Endy Chavez an opportunity to prove why he’s the best fifth outfielder in MLB, and give the Mets a boost of speed and defense. And let us not forget Lastings Milledge is chomping at the bit in New Orleans, ready and waiting for another shot with the big club. With plenty of talent in reserve, the Mets are well-equipped to handle the myriad breakdowns that occur on all teams in a 162-game season — old and young alike.

There may be some bumps and bruises over the next month, but during that time several players will define their roles, and the 2007 Mets will start to take shape.

And if you’re still worried about their race for the pennant, consider that at this time last year, Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez were anchoring the back of the rotation, Jorge Julio was taking up space in the bullpen, Kaz Matsui was the starting second baseman, and Jose Valentin was batting .154. So things could be a lot worse … and yet, look at how that 2006 team turned out.

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Mets Game 28: Win over Diamondbacks

Mets 5 Diamondbacks 3

It was a clearly uncomfortable game for John Maine.

But then, all pitchers should be lucky enough to have his discomfort.

With a look on his face that conveyed frustration, aggravation, or possibly constipation, Maine nonetheless powered through the Arizona lineup, allowing just one run on six hits and a walk in six innings. He struck out three en route to his fifth victory without a loss.

Maine didn’t have his very best stuff — his command on all pitches was way off — but he kept a stiff upper lip and turned in a veteran-like performance, keeping the ball in the strike zone and making great “pitcher’s pitches” exactly when he had to.

While Maine was shutting down the D’Backs batters, the Mets offense is finally beginning to kick into gear. Jose Reyes led off the game with a single, stole second, and scored on a base hit by Carlos Beltran. In the second inning, surprise starter Julio Franco gave Maine a cushion, blasting an opposite-field, two-run homer into the pool beyond the right-center fence off Randy Johnson to put the Mets ahead 3-0. Paul LoDuca — who scored on Franco’s homer — hit a homerun of his own in the fourth, a high drive over the leftfield fence. Jose Reyes drove in Endy Chavez in the fifth to finish the scoring for the night.

Though the Diamondbacks managed three runs, they never seemed to be in the game. The homer by Franco seemed to take all the air out of them, save for Orlando Hudson, who made some nice plays at second base and hit a controversial two-run homer off Amby Burgos in the top of the 8th. Hudson’s fly was about to strike the top of the leftfield fence, but the outstretched glove of Endy Chavez (who else?) managed to swat the ball back onto the field. What appeared to be a one-run double was ruled a homerun by third base umpire Gary Darling. Luckily, there were already two out and Burgos induced a popup from Eric Byrnes to end the inning.

Billy Wagner threw 10 pitches to finish the game without incident, earning his sixth save of the season.

Notes

LoDuca batted fifth in the lineup and went 2-for-4 with two runs scored.

Reyes went 3-for-4 with a stolen base, a run, and an RBI, and was thrown out attempting to steal in the fifth on a great throw by catcher Chris Snyder. Reyes argued the call for a few moments, and he might have snuck his hand in before the tag, but in reality the ball beat him to the bag and the play was close enough to go either way.

Chavez started because Moises Alou was resting a sore knee. However, Endy might have injured his ankle on the faux-homer by Hudson. He stayed in the game, but limped a bit through the rest of the game.

The Mets turned three double plays, all of which effectively squelched any momentum the Arizona offense could muster.

Next Game – Sosa Starting

As expected, Jorge Sosa has been promoted to the big club to face Brandon Webb in Saturday night’s game (another 9:40 PM start). Sosa has tallied a 4-0 record and 1.13 ERA in AAA, allowing 29 hits and 4 walks in 32 innings, striking out 29 in the process. His low walk total is encouraging, as is the fact he’s only allowed one homerun in the homer-happy PCL. Also encouraging: he’s induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls. Being that the dinger has been his big bugaboo, perhaps he’s turning a corner in his career.

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Mets Pitching Moves

Lino Urdaneta pitching for the Detroit TigersIn an unsurprising move, the Mets designated Chan Ho Park for assignment after his awful start on Monday. As bad as he was, the New York Yankees would be silly not to at least take a look at Park, considering the injuries that have devastated their starting rotation. Heck, Jose Lima should be asking the Yanks for a tryout.

In a slightly surprising move, the Mets also promoted Lino Urdaneta from New Orleans. As you may remember, Lino’s career ERA is infinity, so we all hope he gets into a game and retires at least one batter, so he can have a number instead of “INF” on his pitching line.

Actually, I’m hoping he gets into a game for a better reason — he may be able to help the Mets bullpen. Urdaneta had a strong spring training, showing good command of a fastball in the upper 90s, and could be further along than Ambiorix Burgos. At this point, it’s doubtful Burgos would be sent down — he’s Rick Peterson’s pet project — but it would be encouraging and helpful to find out that Lino Urdaneta can get big league hitters out. At some point in the season, someone (Heilman?) is likely to suffer an injury, and having Urdaneta step in would be nice insurance and a great story.

Most likely, however, Urdaneta will find himself back in N’awlins come Saturday, when the Mets must put someone on the mound in the first inning to face Brandon Webb and the Diamondbacks. Unless the Mets choose to start Aaron Sele on Saturday, it is likely that Jorge Sosa will be promoted and Urdaneta sent back down before he gets a chance to unpack his suitcase.

However, Sosa is scheduled to start tonight in New Orleans, so we’ll know for sure if it will be Sosa or Sele before the Mets and Diamondbacks do battle tonight (obviously, if Sosa gets pulled, he’s coming up). FYI, Jason Vargas pitched on Thursday, and Philip Humber started on Wednesday, so neither of those youngsters is an option for tomorrow’s start.

If indeed Sele gets the start, and does well, Urdaneta may have a chance to stick around for a few more days. With Jorge Sosa pitching lights out in AAA though, Urdaneta will have to pull off a quick string of Mike Jacobs-like performances to stay on the 25-man roster. Who knows — with his electric fastball, anything can happen.

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Mets Game 27: Win over Diamondbacks

Mets 9 Diamondbacks 4

Mets Damion Easley hitting in spring trainingWhy the heck did the Mets sign Damion Easley?

That’s what I was thinking back in mid-November of last year. Here was a little guy with a loopy swing, washed up for five years now. He wasn’t particularly adept with the glove, and not terribly versatile, either. Why were the Mets in such a rush to sign this “never-was”, when guys like Mark Loretta and Adam Kennedy were available?

A few minutes later I recalled similar thoughts from around the same time the previous winter, after the Mets signed Jose Valentin for no logical reason.

Ah, yes, In Omar We Trust.

After a mostly ordinary, often lackluster career — save for a three-year, 20-homer per season spurt — Damion Easley suddenly has a flair for the dramatic. And that loopy swing is connecting at precisely the right times.

With one out and two men on in the ninth, Easley lifted a 2-0 pitch into the leftfield stands to put the Mets ahead 6-4. The blast came against Jose Valverde, who had previously been nearly perfect in the closing role, saving 10 games in 11 chances and entering the game with a marvelous 1.64 ERA. The go-ahead homer, however, clearly affected the volatile Valverde, as he then walked Julio Franco and allowed a base hit to Jose Reyes before being removed from the game. His successor didn’t do much better, giving up an opposite-field homer to David Wright to put the game away for good.

Though it turned out to be an exciting, come-from-behind victory, the Mets nearly gave the game away.

They say the great pitchers seem to get tougher as the game goes along — particularly after they are given the lead. The smell of victory — the blood of the fallen opponent — causes something extra to kick in, a competitive streak that sears the outside skin of the decision, sealing the win inside.

For some reason, however, Tommy Glavine didn’t get tough.

The game was reminiscent of a Glavine start in Atlanta last July, when he was given the lead four times, but handed it right back. Against the Arizona Diamondbacks last night, Glavine fell behind early, but the Mets came back in the fourth to give him a one-run lead. Minutes later, he gave away the lead via a two-run homer to catcher Chris Snyder.

In the top of the fifth, Carlos Beltran evened things up with a prodigious solo homer to right-center. But in the bottom of the inning, Glavine gave up another dinger, this time to Orlando Hudson on a BP-like fastball over the middle of the plate, to untie the game. It was as if Glavine didn’t want to win. Maybe the 300-win thing is getting in his head, causing him to lose his focus

Notes

The ninth inning was a buildup of breaks that bewildered Jose Valverde, and may have caused him to lose his cool. First, a Shawn Green grounder bounced through Tony Clark’s legs, and then Paul LoDuca had a tough at-bat, working the count full and walking on a close pitch off the outside part of the plate. Valverde seemed to disagree with several of the ball calls — though they weren’t close enough to bicker about — and after walking LoDuca fell behind 2-0 to Easley. Ten saves or not, Valverde is still a head case.

Is Carlos Delgado ever going to hit again? Besides these little singles, I mean. At some point, Willie Randolph has to acknowledge that this man is in a slump. He’s not hitting the ball hard anywhere, and in fact is swinging and missing at an astonishing rate. And it’s not as if he’s getting fooled — he’s getting beat, he’s swinging over, he’s swinging under. Hopefully he and Rick Down will check out some video and notice that Carlos’ head is moving too much when he strides and begins his swing, in turn causing the ball to “jump” and leave his line of vision. A lighter stride step will keep his head “quiet”, and he’ll get a better, longer look at the pitch coming in.

Speaking of mechanical flaws, Aaron Heilman’s arm action is now identical to Joe Smith’s. But we’ll keep believing Willie’s mantra that it’s a phase Aaron needs to work out of, or that it’s mental, or he’s simply “getting the ball up”. And no, I don’t particularly care that he pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning and received credit for the win — the ends do not justify the means in this case.

After going 2-for-2 with a walk, Moises Alou left the game because of a sore knee. Great. A split lip, a sore shoulder, now a bum knee. And it’s only the first week of May.

Shawn Green’s 10-game hitting streak came to a quiet end, though he did walk once and reach on the error by Clark. He also made an outstanding diving catch in the bottom of the ninth, eliciting a big hand from the hometown crowd.

Next Game

John Maine faces Randy Johnson at 9:40 PM EST. If Maine can continue his recent dominance, it would be a major shot in the arm for the Mets, as the last two games of the series will be tough. The D’backs will send their best two starters — Brandon Webb and Livan Hernandez — against someone who hasn’t made an MLB start this year and the shaky Mike Pelfrey. A bit of momentum going into the third game against Webb will be a big lift for the Mets.

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Series Preview: Mets vs. Diamondbacks

Mets offense like a 69 Chevy NovaIn the last two series, the Mets played teams they are supposed to beat handily. Instead, they struggled mightily, losing two of three to the Marlins and nearly losing two of three from the Nationals. The offense is sputtering like a ’68 Chevy Nova with vapor lock, the bullpen is clearly not the dominating force it was a year ago, and there is a hole in the #2 spot in the rotation.

Clearly, 2007 is a different season from 2006.

However, it was a grueling West Coast trip in late May of last year that defined the New York Mets as stalwarts in the National League, so perhaps this first jaunt westward can ignite the sparkplugs and get their engine running.

The Diamondbacks’ Situation

The D’Backs are 16-10 so far this year, in second place in the competitive NL West and one and half games behind the Dodgers. They lost their last two games to Los Angeles, most recently a walkoff heartbreaker on Wednesday night, courtesy of a pinch-hit single by Olmedo Saenz. One thing to note is that Arizona has been near the top of the standings despite being without starting pitchers Randy Johnson and Micah Owings for most of April.

Their offense has been struggling, but the team has received outstanding starting pitching performances from Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, and Doug Davis — all of whom have sparkling ERAs and routinely pitching into the seventh inning. The bullpen has been anchored by closer Jose Valverde, who is showing no signs of the volatility that caused him to lose his job to Jorge Julio last year. He is 10-for-11 in save chances, with 12 strikeouts in 11 innings. However, he has walked six and allowed 11 hits, so there haven’t been too many 1-2-3 innings.


The Pitching Matchups

Game one: Tom Glavine vs. Micah Owings

Tom Glavine will try for the third time to get career win #294, after pitching well enough to earn it in his last two starts.

Owings is making his first start since going on the DL in mid-April due to a hamstring injury. Since he is a rookie that the Mets have never seen before, it’s possible that the Wandy Rodriguez Effect could come into play, though Owings is luckily a righthander. Hopefully for the Mets, he’ll be rusty due to the layoff. Additionally, there is a chance that the D’Backs won’t push him because of the injury, and so the Mets may get into the Arizona bullpen earlier rather than later.


Game two: John Maine vs. Randy Johnson

John Maine is coming off three brilliant starts and goes to the mound sporting a 1.35 ERA. How much longer will he keep this up? Only time will tell.

Randy Johnson, on the other hand, has had two difficult starts — his first two since offseason back surgery. Reports are that his velocity is OK, but is not quite 100% yet. He may not have the stamina to get beyond the fifth or sixth inning.

Game three: ??? vs. Brandon Webb
Reportedly, Chan Ho Park is penciled in to start against Webb, and he is still on the 25-man roster. That said, we can pretty much assume this game has been handed to Arizona.


Game four: Mike Pelfrey vs. Livan Hernandez

Livan Hernandez has been his usual self — mixing up speeds, going deep into games, and giving his team a chance to win. However, he has been walking more batters than normal — 25 already in 38 innings. Though it’s next to impossible to wear out this workhorse, the Mets might be smart to be patient at the plate and earn free passes.

After a difficult first inning in his last start, Pelfrey fought back to finally show some of the skills that earned his promotion to the Major League roster after a strong spring training. Hopefully, he can build on that experience and progress against the D’Backs. If nothing else, Pelfrey would be wise to watch his rival, Livan Hernandez — who can teach him a few things about backing off on the fastball and keeping batters off-balance. Actually, Pelfrey could learn a lot from watching Webb the night before his start as well. One would think that the sinkerballing Webb would be an ideal example for Pelfrey to follow.

Visit MetsGeek for a more detailed report on the Arizona pitchers.

D’Backs Bats

Orlando Hudson has reached base in all 29 games this year, and is batting .351. However, he is the one bright spot thus far, as the D’Backs have been hit with nagging injuries and offensive slumps similar to the Mets’. Other than Hudson, the only other Diamondbacks batting over .250 are Eric Byrnes (.286) and Chad Tracy (.292), who missed the last two games due to a strained ribcage and is day to day.

First baseman Conor Jackson hit .217 for the month of April, and is currently nursing a stitched-up thumb and a sore hamstring.

Shortstop Stephen Drew, who has also been dealing with a sore hamstring as well as a sore groin, struck out eight times and went 1-for-13 in the series against the Dodgers. He is now hitting .240 with a team-high 19 strikeouts.

Mets Bats

Where are they? On paper, this is the most powerful offense in the National League, and some say strong enough to compete in the AL. Off paper — on the field — the key hits aren’t coming, particularly from the middle of the order. David Wright seems to have broken out of his slump, and Carlos Delgado is showing signs of breaking out of his (though, Willie Randolph will not describe Delgado’s .196 batting average as a “slump” — just what the heck IS it then, Willie?).

Jose Reyes has been outstanding, getting on base at a .431 clip, but not scoring as often as he should. Carlos Beltran has been really hot at times, and is batting .349. Moises Alou started off hot, but now that April is over his batting average has slipped. Shawn Green has a 10-game hitting streak and is hitting around .440 over that span. All these numbers mean nothing, though, as the Mets continue to mount rallies when a.) there are two outs; or b.) the pitcher is coming to the plate. To beat the D’backs’ strong starting pitchers, they will have to start driving in runners on third base with less than two out, get things started early in innings, and improve their overall situational hitting techniques.

Otherwise, it could be a long four games for New York Mets fans.

Posted in Series Previews | Comments Off on Series Preview: Mets vs. Diamondbacks

John Maine and the BABIP Mystery

I have two questions for you — no visiting Baseball-Reference, Googling, or otherwise cheating:

1. What was Yogi Berra’s career batting average?

2. Name one quote attributed to Yogi Berra.

(answers come after the text ads, scroll down)

OK, so how did you do? I’m going to go out on a limb and say you didn’t know — off the top of your head — that Yogi’s career batting average was .285. Imagine if I asked something more obscure, such as his career OPS? (Which was .830, by the way.)

Now, I’m also going to go out on a limb and say you can probably repeat MORE than one “Yogism”. If not, here are a few of the more popular:

“It ain’t over till it’s over.”

“If there’s a fork in the road, take it.”

“90% of the game is half-mental.”

“This is like deja vu all over again.”

“I want to thank all those that made this night necessary.”

and of course, “I didn’t really say everything I said.”

Now, you may remember several others, as there are literally dozens of “Yogisms”. Heck, there were several books published, filled with his quotes, mis-quotes, and malaprops.

What’s that tell you? That Yogi was a better talker than he was a hitter?

Actually it’s a clue to what has made baseball so popular for over 100 years: the stories.

In the last few days, both FlushingUniversity and MetsGeek posted stories that John Maine’s success should be taken with a grain of salt, because his BABIP suggests that he’s merely been lucky.

Thanks for raining on our parade, guys. And you’re both supposed to be Mets fans!

Originally, this post was going to be about how I think BABIP is a bunch of poppycock. (For those of you who don’t know what BABIP is, I strongly suggest you read either of the above-mentioned articles, and/or google the research of Voros McCracken — it’s all fascinating stuff, if you are into numbers.) But two things kept me from explaining why I think it’s skill, and not luck, that has made John Maine a great pitcher so far this year:

1. I don’t want to get flamed again by the statheads over at The Baseball Think Factory

2. I don’t care if John Maine has been lucky. I just want to enjoy the story.

While it’s true that baseball is the most measurable of the major sports — there’s seemingly a stat for everything, and stats based on stats — the words are what have carried the sport through over a century. It began with the stories spun by scribes such as Ring Lardner, JG Taylor Spink, Zane Grey, Hugh Fullerton, and others. It continued over the airwaves, and through the years people have felt comfort from the voices of Vin Scully, Mel Allen, Red Barber, Ernie Harwell, Curt Gowdy, and dozens of others. The most successful writers and broadcasters are remembered for conveying the story that was on the field.

Yes, we count the hits and the homeruns, and acknowledge the milestones — but the numbers are a part of the story, not the story itself. In fact, with the recent controversy surrounding performance-enhancing drugs in baseball, it’s doubtful people will even care about the milestones anymore. For example, how many people outside of San Francisco think Barry Bonds’ career homerun total means anything? Not nearly as many people are talking about 755 as much as the STORY behind Bonds’ getting there.

So in the case of John Maine, the numbers geeks are telling us not to get too excited, don’t get your hopes up, the BABIP tells us that Maine won’t keep this pace up.

Hmmm … so John Maine won’t go 32-0 this year? He won’t finish the year with a 1.35 ERA?

C’mon guys, we already know that — no one expects Johnny Maine to continue pitching like Tom Seaver on steroids. Eventually, there will be a game where he gets knocked out in the fourth inning, and his ERA — and BABIP will swell like a pregnant elephant.

But until then, let us bask in the moment. Let us talk about how confident Maine looks on the mound; how he worked so hard in spring training, believing he had to earn a spot; how he really has command of his fastball; how those new offspeed pitches are keeping the hitters off-balance; how Omar Minaya fleeced the Orioles; how Maine has built on the 2006 postseason. That’s what we enjoy about baseball — personalities, opinions, argument, banter. Drowning oneself in the numbers to quantify performance may give us an idea of what will happen in the future, but in the process you’re destroying the universal appeal of the game — the storytelling.

Posted in Player Notes | Comments Off on John Maine and the BABIP Mystery