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November 12, 2010 2010 Mets Evaluations Joe Janish

2010 Analysis: Ike Davis

I will be the first to admit I didn’t think Ike Davis would do as well as he did, as quickly as he did. My projection was for Davis to spend at least another half-year in the minors, and join the Mets at some point in July or later – after it was clear the team was out of contention.

As it turned out, Davis arrived earlier than expected, stepping in to the starting first baseman position on April 19th and never looking back.

Davis was good for a 23-year-old first-year player, finishing the season with a .264 AVG., .351 OBP, 19 HR, and 33 doubles in 600 plate appearances. His 72 walks were impressive for a rookie, and although he tended to be streaky, his hot and cold runs evened themselves out over the long-term, culminating in average production for an MLB first baseman – not bad for a 23-year-old. Additionally, he flashed fancy glovework in the field, proved capable of prodigious power, and made adjustments after pitchers made adjustments to him.

2011 Projection

Assuming Davis builds on his 2010 debut, the Mets should have a player who is somewhere between Adam LaRoche and Eric Karros – which, I understand is not the Adrian Gonzalez type that the most optimistic of Mets fans would like, but isn’t too shabby. Considering the power (and strikeouts) generated by his long swing, it wouldn’t surprise me if Davis reached the level of Adam Dunn at some point in his career. The kid can hit the ball a long way; the only question is, how often will he make contact?

Unless something crazy happens this winter, we can expect Ike Davis to be the Mets starting first baseman in 2011 and beyond. It will be a treat to see how he evolves.

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Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. CatchDog November 13, 2010 at 11:03 am
    Bill James just came out with his 2011 projections. He’s got Ike at .283 / .374 / .488 with 23 HRs and 80 RBIs. The OBP looks like he factored in lots of walks, plus that’s not a bad average.

    I’d take that kind of production along with the defense Ike brings to the field.

    I believe the key to Ike’s hitting is to be patient and take the ball the other way when he’s being pitched on the outside half of the plate. He did that when he first came up and then got pull happy. He started driving the ball to left again in September (fatigue?) and saw his average jump.

    Agreed, he’s going to be fun to watch.