When Should the Mets Trade Jose Reyes?
NOTE: this post was written by Matt Himelfarb
Sandy Alderson caused quite the media frenzy last week, following his statement that “stolen bases are a footnote,” when it comes to winning games. In the wake of the Wilpons’ financial debacle, most people construed this quote to mean that Jose Reyes’ days in Flushing are numbered.
I’m torn on basically every single question surrounding Jose Reyes: Whether or not to retain him, how much do you pay him, when to trade him, etc. For one, there are a lot of questions to consider- how good a player is he, is he healthy, the demand for him should he hit the open market, is dishing out a Carl Crawford-esque contract a good decision, etc.- and either signing him to an extension or trading him right now requires making a whole lot of assumptions regarding those kind of questions. Plus, as a Mets fan, it pains to me to imagine Reyes donning anything other than the orange and blue.
Let’s discuss Reyes’ value first. Whenever anyone brings up Reyes’ impending free agency, they immediately use Crawford’s 7 year, $142 million dollar deal with Boston this off-season as a template. This strikes as me as somewhat intellectually lazy. Crawford has been worth an average of about 6.3 wins the last two seasons. His wOBA has consistently hovered in the .365 range, and his average UZR/150 over the last three years is over 20 runs.
I think a reasonable, slightly optimistic projection for a healthy Reyes next season would be about 4 wins. That means about a .340 wOBA (Bill James has him at .345, Marcel .341), and I’m going to assume he is a neutral defender (0 UZR/150), as his range has declined over the last three years, according to both observers and UZR. Is his ceiling, particularly offensively, higher than that? Absolutely. But I wouldn’t count on it. In dollar value, assuming one win is worth something like $4.5 million- that amounts to about $18 million a year or so (Crawford’s averages $21 million per year). It’s hard to envision Reyes getting that much money, though; by that standard, Crawford has been worth an average of over $28 million.
That being said, I can see Reyes demanding a contract very similar to Crawford’s. There is a dearth of available shortstops next season, with numerous potential big market suitors- Red Sox, Giants, Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers, and, perhaps, the Yankees. If he ends up being just a four-win player next season, I’d be wary of giving him too much money. If he is the same player as he was from 2006-2008- .365+wOBA, solid range- I’d be more willing, but then again, that will cost even more money.
The obvious answer, which I’m inclined to agree with, is that in light of all these uncertainties, the Mets should simply take the wait-and-see approach.
But than again, say Alderson is convinced that the Mets will have to curtail payroll in the foreseeable future. The Mets ability to re-sign Reyes is immensely complicated, to say the least, by the Wilpons’ financial uncertainty, but let’s just say Alderson is serious about emphasizing payroll flexibility. Combined with lingering questions about Reyes’ health, and his productivity, it makes sense, in certain respects, to trade him.
And if they’re going to trade him, they might as well trade him before Opening Day. True, they could wait until the deadline, hoping Reyes proves himself healthy and reestablishes his value. For one, though, I think the Mets would get less in return from a team simply looking to rent Reyes for two-three months, than if they traded him if he proves himself healthy during Spring Training. The Mets aren’t competing in 2011, so if they don’t plan on retaining Reyes, they should maximize their return.
Most importantly, though, the Mets risk having their hands tied if they wait until the deadline. We’ve seen this scenario the last two years; the Mets are on the fringes of contention- say 5-8 games out of the division and the wild card, where they are neither buyer nor sellers at the deadline, so they are stuck holding onto Reyes, even though nothing short of a miracle will get to them to the post-season.
True, the compensation picks for letting Reyes walk is nothing to scoff at, but again, if the Mets aren’t likely to contend and don’t think they can retain Reyes, they should not sell themselves short on a potential return. Cincinatti, for one, currently has a surplus of young pitching at the moment- one of Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, or Mike Leake is going to be the odd man out come Opening Day. The Reds have already locked up Jay Bruce on a 6-year contract and will likely look into extending Joey Votto, which probably precludes them from signing Reyes to a long-term deal. Still, it could be awfully tempting for the Reds to deal from a position of strength and have Reyes at the top of their lineup next year. Plus, you cannot underestimate the stupidity of Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker, evident by the Bronson Arroyo contract and Aroldis Chapman getting the Jenrry Mejia treatment.
Trading Reyes right now could represent a golden opportunity for the Mets to acquire a potential ace such as Bailey or Wood, or even top-flight catching prospect Devin Merosco. That might just be the best scenario Mets fans can hope for at this point.
However, if they really don’t have the financial ability to offer Reyes a market value contract, they should trade him as soon as possible to maximize the return.
A young pitcher who could slot in behind Mike Pelfrey to start the season would make losing Reyes more palatable than the equivalent of Chris Carter & Eddie Lora at the trade deadline or the draft picks at the end of the season.
If you trade Reyes who plays SS? If your answer is Hu or Tejada, someone similar, what message does it send to the
potential paying customers?
Make NO mistake, Jose Reyes’ days in a Mets uniform are clearly marked. I can see alderson dealing Reyes to the Braves for Martin Prado: the PERFECT alderson player: boring, good OBP & OPS who will suffer dramatic reductions in numbers playing in Citi Field. Meanwhile, Jose goes to Atlanta and torments the Mets for 5 or 6 years and hits about .400 against them during that time. But, hey, as long as sandy is happy with a .260 hitting 2nd baseman who follows sandy’s rules, that’s all that matters, right?
I think it is a wrong conclusion to say that players who can stretch a double into a triple or score from 1st on a double are not Alderson guys. I think the high OPS player (on base + slugging) emphasizes scaring from first on an extra base hit. Think about it. A guy gets on base, and someone slugs a double to score him. I think what guys like Alderson hates is people who constantly run their teams out of an inning. I’m sorry but stealing second with no outs and your big poppers coming up doesn’t make sense when David Wright is just going to hit a double that Reyes would have scored from anyway. With 2 outs and Paul LaDuca at the plate, yes because all he needs is a single to score Reyes. That makes sense. I think smart base running and situational stealing fits well into the Alderson’s plan.
The last thing is whether or not Reyes will be a met long term, and if not should they just trade him. I think if Reyes is not going to be a Met after 2011, then they should trade him when his value is the highest. If that is now, March 1, or July 31 I can’t say. But if the two draft picks is what Alderson wants then it will be hard to get a deal done because he clearly will want a King’s ransom for Jose.
That said, Alderson is more of a “foot note” than stolen bases will ever be. Something to be said for consistently reaching scoring position from the top of the order but I think that goes over the quants’ heads, generally speaking. Reyes is an impact player and a legitimate gate draw.
I almost laughed at that. Seriously. Reyes would command a top flight group of prospects from a stupid GM. But Please dont even bring Wood up. Sandy Alderson might be dumb enough himself to make that deal.
The bigger issue for the Mets is are we going to be a slave to the slotting for draft picks or can we act like the big boy in the room that we are and draft and pay the top talent…
Now, whether he can maintain that level of effectiveness is another question. But he’s looking pretty damn promising for a 23 year-old left-hander in his first season.
At this point, I think he’s a lot more valuable than any compensation pick, which was my main point.
Feel free to hate on my dream, but this is a lost season with a mediocre team. I don’t want resources dumped into some halfway attempt at contention. That approach over the past few years is why there’s such a mess now.
I have no faith in Reyes any more. I don’t want a .320 OBP in the lead off spot. I don’t want to wonder whether his hamstring or thyroid will be hurting in the Spring. By the end of last year, I cringed when he came to bat and he normally failed to deliver.
He’s not worth a long term investment regardless of ownership’s finances.
Mark my words: NO ONE will look back in 7 years and say, “Boy oh boy, that six year Reyes’ contract put us over the top!!”
BTW 86mets, that 8 person team of .350 OBP and .500 SLG would go about 60 – 21 in Citi Field. High OBP and doubles power is all you need in this ballpark.
I’ll take boring wins over exciting losses any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
1) Four years of 150+ games played (2005-2008).
2) He wouldn’t have lost so much time in 2009 if the team hadn’t kept trying to rush him back from the DL until his slightly torn hamstring finally tore completely.
3) Even with his thyroid problem (caused by a seafood allergy he was unaware of and easily preventable) and the oblique problem, he still played 130 games last year.
4) If he had been able to recover from the oblique problem, he could have had much better stats and still played 110 games.
Your hindsight needs glasses.
2) What ifs aren’t enough to base $100 million contracts upon.
3) IIRC he stated in January or early February that he finally feels 100% and didn’t over the course of ’10. It’s just more injury history. Even when disregarding the thyroid issue, he’s still a speedster playing shortstop with an oblique problem.
4) Another what if.
If you see the glass half full, so be it; but that perspective does not warrant 6 or 7 years at well over $100,000,000.
He’s been in the league for 8 seasons and he’s had four healthy ones. You can argue that his individual injuries aren’t “related”, but there’s obviously something wrong somewhere with his body; his approach or both.
There’s also that career .335 OBP (.321 last year). That’s a pretty important statistic for a lead off hitter. He’s topped .350 four times, but never .360.
You can’t steal first…