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November 1, 2012 2012 Mets Evaluations Joe Janish

2012 Analysis: R.A. Dickey

20121031-224834.jpgLet’s see … R.A. Dickey climbed Mount Kilimanjaro, wrote a bestselling book, threw back-to-back one-hit shutouts, won 20 games, and may have bagged a Cy Young Award. Is there anything else he could have accomplished over this past year?

What can I say that hasn’t already been said? R.A. was far and away THE Mets story of 2012, and the #1 story in baseball (at least, in this author’s opinion). His 20-win season was remarkable for at least two reasons: first, pitchers in this era just don’t win 20 games as easily as they did 20+ years ago. Second, it’s extremely difficult to win 20 games for a losing team; R.A.’s 2012 dominance for an abysmal club ranks right up there with Phil Niekro‘s 20-win season for the 1979, 66-win Braves; Niekro’s 19-win season for the ’78, 69-win Braves; Randy Jones‘ 20-win season for the ’75, 71-win Padres; Jones’ 22-win, Cy Young season for the ’76 the 79-win season for the Padres; and Steve Carlton‘s mind-blowing 27-win, Cy Young season for the ’72, 59-win Phillies. I’m sure there are other comparable achievements over the past 40 years by pitchers on losing teams, but these are the ones that immediately come to my mind.

Among NL pitchers in 2012, R.A. Dickey was first in innings pitched, first in strikeouts, first in shutouts, first in complete games, second in wins, third in WHIP, third in WAR, third in K:BB ratio, and third in K/9. There are many more firsts, seconds, and thirds that can be listed, as well as many more equally impressive stats. It was an historical season for the knuckleballer (something we suggested here on MetsToday in late June).

Again, what more is there to say? R.A. was incredible, uplifting, and gave Mets fans something to smile about every five days. Where in the world would the Mets have been without him?

2013 Projection

As hard as it is to imagine the 2012 Mets without R.A. Dickey, it’s equally difficult to imagine the ’13 Mets without him. Yet, it looms as a distinct possibility; after all, R.A. is one of the Mets’ few valuable trade chips, and as someone nearing age 40, it makes sense for the Mets to cash this chip in today toward a potentially better tomorrow. Since there’s never before been a knuckleballer in his late 30s who throws in excess of 80 MPH, no one knows how long Dickey can last — especially without an ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. From a scientific standpoint, and considering his clean, efficient mechanics, it is reasonable to believe he can last as long as Jamie Moyer. However, without a comp, who can say for sure?

Considering R.A.’s appeal to the fan base, leadership, media savvy, and potential to keep pitching for at least another half-decade, it would be in the Mets’ interest to keep him around. However, if the right prospect-laden, blockbuster deal comes their way, it would be foolish for the Mets not to peddle him away. The Mets need several young men added to their organization very quickly if they hope to contend within the next 3-4 years, and if some can be obtained by trading R.A., they may very well pull the trigger.

Personally, I would be very disappointed to see R.A. leave, but at the same time, I’d be happy for him if he moves on to a team with a legitimate shot at a postseason berth. In my heart, I see him hanging around and contributing somewhere for at least the next 4-5 years — wherever he winds up.

Read 2011 R.A. Dickey Analysis

Read 2010 R.A. Dickey Analysis

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Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. Englishman in Amsterdam November 1, 2012 at 7:08 am
    I don’t think you can trade RA, for the self same reasons you mentioned. Who’s going to give up enough valuable prospects for an unknown quantity who is a medical freak and is already pretty old?
  2. NormE November 1, 2012 at 9:10 am
    Joe, this is the best insight on R.A. and the Mets. I,too, would hate to see him go, but if the right deal came along……

    R.A. winning the Cy Young would cap off a truly remarkable year.

  3. Mike November 1, 2012 at 10:49 am
    Agreed RE: R.A. Dickey. With a deal that would net sufficient return for a Cy Young caliber pitcher the Mets should try to extend him. I think they still will have an opportunity to trade him this summer and in subsequent years of any deal because I don’t think Dickey will demand 20 million a year or anything unreasonable. If they keep him, he could contribute for several years.

    One thing people never seem to mention is that while yes what makes him so great is his 80MPH Knuckler, but if he loses a few ticks on it, there’s no reason why he cannot just go to his slower Knuckler and be a more conventional Knuckle-baller. Sort of like how older pitchers have to rely on deception later in their careers, Dickey can just become a different pitcher and still be effective. If that happens in year 4 of 5 then you still got three years of Cy-Dickey. But who know when that will happen.

  4. derek November 1, 2012 at 11:12 am
    hopefully he wins the Cy Young and raises his trade value to give us more options…
    • Izzy November 1, 2012 at 8:31 pm
      Whether he wins the award or not, his trade vales does not change one iota. His tradevalue might have peaked at the last deadline but certainly will diminish after the season starts as a team dealing for him then can’t get a draft pick. Might as well trade him and prove to the fan base what a liar Alderson has been since day one. Or will all his blind followers chirp how we’ll be contenders in 2015, 16, 17, 18, 19,
      • derek November 2, 2012 at 10:02 am
        how can u say that? player recognition, mkting wise, it is a big differ if he wins award. he will be plastered all over internet and papers for winning award and value in mkting goes up. which is a big deal to teams…

        i agree when season starts his value goes down…and would rather mets trade him now. but to say if he wins or comes in 2nd doesnt matter i respectfully disagree…

  5. Dan B November 1, 2012 at 10:38 pm
    I doubt the Mets would trade Dickey until July 31st deadline. Why? Because at $5 million next year, he could bring in more revenue then he costs, something not many other Met players could say. Unfortunately, that would mean less trade value. Even worse, they could keep him all of 2013 and just let him walk, using their ever popular “Jose Reyes” maximizing revenue strategy.
  6. DaveSchneck November 3, 2012 at 9:15 pm
    Trade him, no keep him, wait, trade him now, tomorrow, no sign him quickly. It’s great watching RA every 5th day, and he is easy to root for. However, like every other man on the roster, he should be dealt if someone else offers the right deal. However, as there are no comps for RA, what is he worth in a trade? It will be very interesting to see how other teams value a 38 yr. old Cy Young pitcher’s service for 1 year at $5 million.