Tag: Seattle Mariners

Who wants a Mets-Mariners blockbuster?

Rosario Cano

How badly do the Mets and their much-maligned owners and their brand new GM really want a title shot in 2019?

How badly do they want to build an affordable core that can promise contention into the future?

These two goals may be directly opposed. Which will win out?

Mets fans, which do you want to win out?

The Seattle Mariners have provided Brodie Van Wagenen with exactly the sort of opportunity I often chastised Sandy Alderson for not pouncing on. The opportunity has arrived to shop at a fire sale. Surely the Mariners will have plenty of buyers dropping by for a look, but the rumor mill currently has the Mets leading the charge to mine Seattle for valuables in exchange for taking on Robinson Cano’s contract.

The Mets and Mariners have an enormous number of potential matches:

If the Mets want to win in 2019, they’d be wise to upgrade at center field, catcher, shortstop, another infield position, and closer. The Mariners have good but expensive players at second and short, and players in their primes at center and closer.

If the Mariners want to launch a rebuild, they’d be wise to acquire a bunch of talented first- or second-year players, as well as minor leaguers on the cusp of bursting onto the MLB scene. The Mets have several intriguing prospects at various positions in the upper levels of their system, as well as some very young talent on the major league roster.

What would happen if the Mets swapped Amed Rosario, Peter Alonso, Andres Gimenez and Justin Dunn for Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and Mallex Smith?

Would the Mets win 90 games in 2019 but then feature $45M in dead weight in 2022, with no good young players on the roster?

And if so… would that be worth it?

How much would this trade help the Mets?

Segura, Cano, and Diaz each project to be worth about 2 wins above the players they’d be replacing on the Mets. Add another win or so for Smith. If the current Mets are an 83-win team, they would jump to a 90-win team with a single trade. That’s hard to do.

How much would this trade help the Mariners?

The Mariners would get two middle infielders, one slugging first baseman, and one hard-throwing pitcher. Rosario and Alonso are ready for the big leagues, with Dunn not far behind, and Gimenez an extra year away. They won’t all be good players, but maybe more than one pans out, and maybe there’s a star in there somewhere. This is exactly what a rebuilding team needs.

How much would this trade hurt the Mets?

I don’t think the Mets would miss the talent they’d give up. Dunn struggles with command, lacks a great build, and is viewed by some as a future reliever. Rosario’s hitting fundamentals are woeful, and he’s been surprisingly ineffective in the field for someone with such athletic grace. Gimenez looks to be good at everything, but maybe not good enough at hitting to be a real asset. Alonso will hit homers, but also be a whiff-prone first baseman, offering an eminently replaceable skill set.

The real cost I see is money. Even if the players the Mets lose will be barely average, they’ll be barely average for the minimum salary, allowing the Mets to spend elsewhere. As for the players the Mets get back, Segura will rapidly go from underpaid to overpaid as his range and offense decline with age, while Cano is already overpaid and may claim the crown for most overpaid by the time his contract ends.

How much would this trade hurt the Mariners?

Mallex Smith is young, cheap, and exciting, with room to grow. He’s exactly the sort of player a rebuilding team should keep (unless they’re planning a very long rebuild). Edwin Diaz is the type of dominant reliever that a contender might overpay for at the trade deadline, bringing back great prospects without moving Smith and Segura at the same time. Also, maybe the Mariners see the same limitations in the Mets’ players that I do.

What’s the verdict?

I would make this trade. It’s hard to put too high a price on getting exactly what you need to compete. Yes, this will ruin any chance of the Mets competing as a mid-payroll team, but I don’t see that happening anyway. Their prospects and young players just aren’t elite enough to do what Cleveland did. Now is a time for the Mets to make bold moves, crack open the wallets, and start winning. The Wilpons can plan to recoup those payroll costs in the form of ticket sales and playoff games.

And yes, to win in 2022 they’ll have to spend even more… and a business model of escalating costs can’t be sustained forever… but no MLB team stays great forever. Give me a solid boom before the next bust, and I’ll be happy.

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Adios Jose? Five Free Agents Who Left The Mets

The Mets are heading towards their first potential major free agent defection since the end of the 2000 season. In fact, throughout the entire 35 years of free agency, only a handful of key players ever left the team for greener pastures. This does not include a plethora of bad trades, bungled roster moves or the like, but players the team wanted to keep but couldn’t. Should the Mets re-sign Jose Reyes? Perhaps history will serve as a guide. For clarity the player’s last year with the Mets appears in parenthesis.

1.Darryl Strawberry (1990): Until recently the best offensive player the Mets have ever produced, Straw’s contract expired at the end of the 1990 season. At the time he was at the pinnacle of his career: at age 29 he was on pace the break the all time home run record and was coming off a 37-home run season. Darryl spurned the Mets, instead inking a lucrative five-year $22.25 million contract with his hometown Los Angeles Dodgers. He proved to be a bust in LA, hitting only only 38 home runs in three years there before being released. He drifted to San Francisco and then later to the Yankees where he enjoyed a revival of sorts, but his sure-fire Hall of Fame career when he left the Mets was lost in a haze of injuries and drug abuse. He has since reconcilled with the Mets and recently surfaced, warning Reyes to stay in New York. Hard to envision what could have happened had he stayed (many blame the influence of hometown friends on his demise in LA) but the cost of replacing him—first Vince Coleman and then Bobby Bonilla—ushered in a Mets Dark Age that lasted from 1991 to 1998 and the arrival of Mike Piazza.

2.John Olerud (1999): This one hurts. Ole revitalized his career in New York after then-GM Joe McIlvaine stole him from Toronto for Robert Person. Ole hit .354 for the Mets in 1998 and was the first baseman for “the greatest infield ever” in 1999. He departed after that season for his hometown of Seattle where his offensive revitalization continued. He also logged time with Boston and the Yankees before retiring with a .398 career OBP. To replace him, the Mets signed Todd Ziele, who did an acceptable job at first for a few years before departing via trade to Milwaukee after the 2002 season. The Mets could have used Olerud’s bat in the Subway Series and in their failed defense of the NL title in 2001.

3. Mike Hampton (2000): Mike arrived two days before Christmas in 1999 for Octavio Dotel and Roger Cedeno. He helped anchor the rotation in for 2000 NL Champion Mets, going 15–10 with a 3.12 ERA and winning the MVP of the 2000 NLCS. Then he departed for Colorado, making the infamous “the schools in Colorado are better” remark. Injuries derailed Mike’s career and his 8 year, $121 million dollar contract is widely regarded as one of the worst free-agent signings in MLB history. As compensation, the Mets received Colorado’s pick in the draft and took an infielder you may have heard of: David Wright.

4. Sid Fernandez (1993): By the end of 1993 season all of the shine was gone from the 1986 championship team. One of it’s last remaining links was El Sid, who’s pitching performance in Game Seven of the 1986 World Series is still one of the most underrated efforts in team history. McIlvaine told reporters he wanted to keep Sid, but instead the Baltimore Orioles signed him to a three year deal. Sid was clearly done by this time, lasting parts of two seasons with Baltimore and one season each in Philadelphia and Houston. As compensation, the Mets used Baltimore’s pick in the draft to get Jay Payton. One of the most enigmatic players in Met history, Payton overcame several years worth of injuries to hold the starting CF position for the 2000 champs.

5. David Cone (1992): OK this one doesn’t really count, as Cone was traded to the Blue Jays right at the end of August. But he was in the last month of his contract and it was generally assumed that he would not resign with the Mets. GM Al Harazin realizing Cone was leaving, went into panic mode and moved him quickly to the Jays. Backing up the old adage that even a blind squirrel finds a nut occassionally, part of the haul included an unknown second baseman named Jeff Kent. Unfortunately, the Mets didn’t know what they had in Jeff and watched as he fueded with teamates, the press and the fans until they shipped him to Cleveland in the ill-fated Carlos Baerga deal. Later Kent developed into a Hall of Famer with the San Francisco Giants. Cone went on to spectacular career: winning a World Series with Toronto and a Cy Young Award in Kansas City. He then went to the Yankees (they do have a fetish for ex-Mets, no?) where he won four rings, pitched a perfect game and got Mike Piazza out in a crucial spot in Game Four of the Subway Series.

Honorable Mentions: Al Leiter, John Franco and Mike Piazza. In all cases the Mets let these long-time stalwarts leave without an arbitration offer, meaning they had no intention of keeping any of them.
Epilouge: In all but one case (Olerud) the Mets guessed right in letting their big ticket players go. The haul in return was a franchise player (Wright), a useful piece (Payton) and the One That Got Away (Kent). The real lesson is the Strawberry situation. Just a hunch, but Jose Reyes’ .337 season and the NL batting crown is going to be as good as it gets with him. However, if the Mets are going to let him walk, it had best be as part of a plan for a rebuilding instead of a makeover. No trying to replace him with expensive pieces that they reward for their previous efforts with another team. They shouldn’t worry about what the fans think. The hard core fanbase will accept a rebuilding with a purpose. The good news for the Mets is that the hard core fanbase is all that is left them.

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