On paper, Reyes was not even the third-best shortstop in the NL East going into 2010. Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, and Yunel Escobar all had excellent seasons in 2009 while Jose spent most of the year on the DL. However, by the time 2010 ended, Jose had found his way back toward the top – though it was more due to drop-offs by the others than a great performance by Reyes.

Ramirez remained on his own planet, but Rollins was dogged by a nagging leg injury and Escobar shat the bed before ultimately being permanently sent to Siberia Toronto. Meanwhile, Jose Reyes came back from a thyroid issue to play in 133 games, hitting .282 with 11 HR, 54 RBI, 30 SB, and 83 R. Two negative numbers jumped out, however: a .321 OBP and 10 times caught stealing. Looking at the final stat line, these numbers are disappointing and concerning, but one must consider the fact that Reyes was definitely, positively, not ready for MLB action when he returned to the lineup on April 5th.

For those who forgot, Reyes’ thyroid problem forced him to sit his butt on the couch for about a month. If you have never participated in athletics, please take my word for it: an athlete – no matter what level, no matter what age, no matter what shape – cannot be a couch potato for almost a month and then jump right back into world-class competition. It takes anywhere from 6 to 8 weeks to get into good shape (for any sport), but it only takes 2-3 weeks to fall out of shape. That’s not my opinion – it’s biological fact. Now, consider that in addition to needing to whip himself back into shape – i.e., to increase his lung capacity or “wind” – Reyes also had to get “back into the swing of things” (pardon the pun) in regard to throwing, hitting, and fielding.

But, Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel were both making decisions based on their job security back in April, so once Reyes showed he could stay on the field for 9 straight innings, he was back in the lineup. All things considered, it shouldn’t have been a surprise when Reyes faltered mightily until June; he was, after all, experiencing “spring training” during the first two months of the season in MLB games, rather than on a sunny field in Port St. Lucie.

So we should look at those final stats with a grain of salt. Further, we should look at his .314 AVG in June, .310 in July, and .302 in August. He once again slowed down in September with a .269 AVG, but he did have an .808 OPS that final month.

I have to admit, though, I’m a little concerned about that low OBP and the meager 31 walks he drew. Getting caught stealing could have been a combination of bad timing and not being in great running shape, but there is no excuse for the low walk total – plate discipline is something that can be an issue at first, but it should have improved over time. The only explanation I can hope for is a mental one; perhaps Reyes felt he had to be more than he could be, considering the team’s struggles, and in turn expanded his strike zone. We saw Reyes show good strike-zone judgment while Willie Randolph was his manager (and Rick Down his hitting coach), so we know he is capable of being a disciplined hitter. Whether we’ll see him return to that efficiency remains to be seen.

2011 Projection

Guess what, folks – Jose Reyes ain’t young anymore. He is 27 years old now and will be 28 next June – the age when most players enter their prime years. After 130+ healthy games and the thyroid issue seemingly behind him, Reyes is primed for the best season of his career. The question is, will there be a strong influence on the bench reminding him to be patient and disciplined – the way he was under Randolph and Down? If so, Reyes could return to being one of the top 3 players in fantasy baseball, and one of the most dynamic offensive forces in “real” baseball (the game they play on grass and dirt, for team wins and losses). Without that discipline, Reyes may or may not be the second or third-best shortstop in the NL East (look out – Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa could be gaining on him).

Braves 7 Mets 1

So much for the split.

Things were looking bad right away, when starting pitcher Fernando Nieve left the game in the second inning with a pulled muscle in his leg trying to beat out an infield grounder — and was replaced by everyone’s favorite “long man” Tim Redding. Redding immediately served up a solo homer to Yunel Escobar to give the Braves a 1-0 lead, foreshadowing more dismal events to come.

Somehow, Redding worked through the rest of the second without allowing a run, and things were looking up for almost 15 minutes, because the Mets fought back to tie the game in the top of the third and Redding shut out the Braves in the bottom of the same. But Escobar beat Redding again in the fourth, this time with a broken-bat single to drive in the go-ahead run. Then in the fifth, the roof caved in as the Tomahawkers trounced Redding and Elmer Dessnes for another five runs to put the game away for good.

Notes

Not much good came from this game. It’s hard to fault Nieve for running hard and trying to beat out a hit — pitcher or no pitcher, I like to see the game played right. And with this team it’s a pleasure to see someone giving 100%. Unfortunately that “stunt” will likely put him on the DL — he was diagnosed with a strained quad and no word yet on how severe is the injury. What makes it worse is it provides an example of why someone (particularly a pitcher) shouldn’t go all out. But I don’t buy that — had he not run hard through the bag, maybe he would’ve turned his ankle hitting the bag, or been wonked on the head by a wild throw. Injuries happen — usually for no reason other than bad timing or dumb luck.

Luis Castillo went 2-for-3, the only Met with more than one hit. The Mets mustered six hits all afternoon, and David Wright drew the team’s lone walk.

Brian Stokes threw a scoreless inning of mopup relief, as did Bobby Parnell — though Parnell walked two batters in his 21-pitch stint. Redding, Dessens, and Pat Misch continue to prove the other 29 teams right for having no interest in their services. Where’s Nelson Figueroa?

In the three hole, Daniel Murphy went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and is now hitting .238 with a .307 OBP. He’s 3 for his last 22 with 6 Ks.

Brian Schneider had one of the Mets’ three hits in his second start in the past week. I believe he and Fernando Tatis are the only Mets to go over the wall this month.

Yunel Escobar went 3-for-4 with 4 RBI and a run scored.

The Phillies beat the Fish 5-0 behind the arm of undefeated JA Happ, sending the Mets 9 games back. The Phillies are now 13 games above .500; the Mets are 5 below. But hey, there’s still a lot of season left, and the Mets have the benefit of playing the Nationals over the next three days.

Next Mets Game

The Mets embark to Washington DC to play the Nationals in a three-game series that begins Monday night at 7:05 PM. Livan Hernandez pitches for his job against J.D. Martin (not to be confused with J.C. Martin). Martin is filling in for Scott Olsen, who is being placed on the DL with an elbow injury.

“Shortstop” is the name of a greasy spoon diner right under the last stop of 1/9 train in Riverdale – whatever you order, keep it greasy and order seconds. Cheese fries are highly recommended, if I remember correctly.

“Shortstop” is also where the NL East is dominating the positional rankings in fantasy baseball:

Shortstop Rankings – National League

1. Hanley Ramirez (.300-30-110) – Ramirez moves down to the third spot in the lineup this year, so expect more RBIs and a small drop in his SB – I’m thinking he steals 20-25. There’s a reason he is rated #1 by most fantasy baseball magazines and websites.
2. Jose Reyes (.300-18-70) – Reyes will put up his usual numbers – Solid average, power and RBI numbers for a guy that will steal a ton of bases. And I do expect him to steal a TON of bases when the Mets start to hit a rough patch early in the season. Forget what you’ve heard about Jerry Manuel’s “jazz beat” – Reyes will run until his legs fall off this season or the Mets will fall apart. Thank God he isn’t batting third…
3. Jimmy Rollins (.280-15-65) – Rollins is an excellent barometer with which to gauge the collective temperment of your draft/auction. He puts up power numbers comparable to Reyes and he should steal about 15 more bases than Ramirez, yet he isn’t quite up to their overall levels of production… If you are in an auction league, you may get him for less than $35 if Reyes/Ramirez are still on the table. But watch out, once the big guys are gone, the price for Rollins could skyrocket close to $40. Don’t overpay, but get him closer to $30 if you can.
4. JJ Hardy (.275-20-85) – I’m starting to think people overvalue Hardy because they are lumping him in with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart – how many people at your draft have actually seen a Brewers game? Could they tell the difference between Hart, Hardy and Braun? Hardy will post decent numbers, but he isn’t a top tier talent at SS and he is wildly streaky. Get him cheap if you can, but don’t bid on him if he approaches $20. There are plenty of solid AL shortstops that come cheaper and there are better values in the NL.
5. Stephen Drew (.208-18-65) – Get him if he’s cheap, avoid him if he’s too expensive. Rinse. Repeat.

Sleeper – Rafael Furcal (.280-10-50) – If Furcal plays a full season and he is completely healthy, he is almost as productive as Jose Reyes. Don’t expect him to be healthy all season, but watch him post .300-15-65 with 50 SB and 110 runs scored if he is.

Shortstop Rankings – NL East

1. Hanley Ramirez (see above)
2. Jose Reyes (see above)
3. Jimmy Rollins (see above)
4. Yunel Escobar (.290-12-65) – You can’t build a fantasy team around Escobar, but you can definitely get him at a fair price and spend your money (or your higher draft picks) on top talent at other positions. If you’re lucky, he may swipe 10 bases.
5. Cristian Guzman (.285-8-50) – Proceed with caution. This guy is on the Nationals for a reason – he’s just not that productive. Don’t expect him to post another .300-season and don’t expect many SB. He’ll bug the hell out of you with a two-out bloop single late in a tie game against the Mets, but being a gadfly doesn’t translate to fantasy value. Spend no more than $3 on him in an auction and don’t bother with him in shallow mixed leagues.

Sleeper – No one. If Ramirez, Reyes or Rollins get injured, their replacements won’t make a noticeable impact unless they are acquired by via trade.

Jake Peavy is going to the Atlanta Braves, if he waives his no-trade clause, Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline reports.

Miller claims that the Braves are ready to send Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez, one of either Jo-Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton, and one of either Scott Locke or Blaine Boyer.

I’m still not seeing the Braves parting with Escobar … unless Khalil Greene is also part of the deal or they’re looking to bring either Edgar Renteria or Rafael Furcal back to Atlanta. I do realize that Peavy is an ace, but their package seems a bit too heavy and against their philosophy of rebuilding from within. Then again, they have been unable to develop ace-level pitchers in recent years, and have an abundance of young position players, and oftentimes a team must deal from surplus. Escobar is a pretty special talent, though.

With or without Escobar, I’m not liking the idea that the Braves may have Jake Peavy next year — nor does it please me that they are supposedly looking to add a frontline free-agent starter such as A.J. Burnett or Ryan Dempster, as Miller also claims.

*** UPDATE ***

Ken Rosenthal is debunking this rumor, sort of.

If the Braves are getting Jake Peavy, it’s news to them.

The Braves are on the verge of a trade agreement with the Padres for Peavy, according to CBSSportsline.com, but the Padres have yet to communicate their acceptance of a Braves’ offer to Atlanta officials, major-league sources say.

Hmm …. he goes on to state this:
It is possible that the Padres have decided internally to proceed with the Braves, then finalize the details later Thursday. The teams spoke again on Wednesday, continuing discussions that have lasted for over a month.

So, Rosenthal is debunking the deal in one paragraph, then covering his butt just in case the deal is realized. Is he upset he didn’t get the scoop? Or was Miller too quick to the trigger?

We’ll know before Thanksgiving. Perhaps before the arrival of Beaujolais Nouveau.

According to Scott Miller at CBSSports.com, the Atlanta Braves are the frontrunners for Padres ace pitcher Jake Peavy.

Word on the street is that the Braves are willing to part with top centerfield prospect Gorkys Hernandez — a Carlos Gomez-type guy whom Atlanta picked up in last year’s Edgar Renteria deal with the Tigers. Imagine if the Braves were able to turn Andy Marte (the man they traded to Boston for Renteria) into Jair Jurrjens and Jake Peavy? Miller claims the Braves are offering shortstop Yunel Escobar as well — something I find hard to believe. Peavy supposedly has a “strong interest” in joining the Braves. Yippee. I’m not liking the idea of an Atlanta rotation beginning with Peavy, Hudson, and Jurrjens. At least John Smoltz is gone through June — though I have a funny feeling he’ll be back with Braves during the second half of ’09.

If the Peavy deal falls through, Miller also reports that the Braves have inquired about Marlins pitcher Scott Olsen. That punk makes me angry; I hope he gets sent to an AL team.

In addition to pitching, the Braves are supposedly after St. Louis outfielder Ryan Ludwick, who is coming off a career year. The Cardinals are looking to sell high, and hoping to get Kelly Johnson in return. This tidbit comes from Atlanta Journal-Constitution writer David O’Brien.