Steve Phillips Was Right After All
On national television in May 2009, Steve Phillips made the bold statement that the Mets should trade Carlos Beltran. This caused quite a ruckus in the blogosphere, but I supported the idea. Mind you, my argument for dealing Beltran was wildly different from Phillps’ — but the end result was the same.
Back then, there was still this fantasy brewing that the Mets were a playoff-contending team, and so people thought Beltran was central to their expected success — a “core player” so to speak. Phillips saw Beltran as a “flawed” core player — one who wasn’t as “perfect” as Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter (his examples). Ironically, the true fallacy of Phillips’ argument was that he bought into the same nonsense suggesting that the Mets would be a postseason team in 2009 — his feeling was that the Mets should trade Beltran for a player or players who had more “grit”.
It was dumb on many levels. But if “the ends justify the means”, then Phillips was right on target – May 2009 would have been an ideal time to trade Carlos Beltran.
But not only because Beltran was about to destroy his knee beyond full repair; even if he played a healthy and productive 160 games in ’09, the Mets still would’ve missed the postseason by a wide margin and it still would’ve made good sense to trade Beltran — while his stock was still high.
Interestingly, I thought it would be a good idea to trade Beltran long before the 2009 season began — suggesting a mega-trade with the Dodgers that would also shed Luis Castillo and Brian Schneider and bring back Russell Martin, Brad Penny, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Cory Wade. Of course, we have no idea whether LA would’ve agreed to such a deal, but it would’ve looked pretty good to them considering how good Beltran looked at the time, and how badly the Jones, Pierre, and Penny contracts were weighing down the Dodgers’ budget. Hindsight is 20-20, but looking back, if the Mets were able to pull off such a deal, they would probably be in a slightly better situation than they are now. Not much better, but maybe the Mets would have close to $16M more in their budget (the sum of Castillo’s and Beltran’s contracts in 2011 minus the $8.5M owed to Pierre). Add that $16M to the $5M they are working with now and you have over $20M — maybe enough to think about adding someone like Carl Crawford or Adam Dunn, or spending more efficiently on several players.
It’s a moot point of course — the Mets are stuck with Beltran, his $18.5M this year, and won’t get a draft pick after he leaves this winter. The proposed deal with the Dodgers was pure fantasy, and unlikely to have been executed by either club at the time. But the point is, the Mets had a window of opportunity to trade Beltran when his value was still high, at a time when those not drinking the Kool-Aid could see that the organization needed a major facelift. Now, of course, it’s more of a facelift that’s needed, the Mets have no leverage in dealing Beltran, and those in charge are looking at a much longer-term plan than they are letting on. It doesn’t make Steve Phillips any less of an idiot, but the irony is scathing.
About the Author
A Mets fan since birth, Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Oh, and he's often a bit cranky.
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we should have traded him after 2006…u could tell he can’t dish it and can’t take it here in ny.
wonder why no else broke the bank for him…no worries…its not our money, plus contracts continue to get bloated like crazy. sooner or later this needs to be addressed because then every team will be over the salary luxury tax.
Beltran has that bring brown thing on his ear, which affects his brain.
I’m really curious as to what a Beltran deal would look like at this point.
I really can’t see him moving over to RF on this particular Met team, for some reason or another [no matter what he says] — let alone having it work out for him in that spacious RF with creaky knees. He looked flat-out “shaky” in CF last year….and that’s what’s most-familiar to him.
Obviously, I’d love to have him go off in the 1st half, and pawn him off by the ASB to a contender….or by the deadline — but the cautious part of me would hope a nice deal with an AL squad presented itself now…….without having to deal with any of this.
Boston would have been perfect.
Would help if we had an idea of how he truly felt about playing a corner spot/how he really feels, health-wise [sunshine stories are going to be spun all winter-through-ST]….but I’m sure they’ll act upon whatever they feel is best.
Been following his situation with a close eye. As big a fan of Beltran as I am….the writing is on the wall with regard to 2011 — it’d take a miracle for the Mets to contend within this division.
P.S. — Still don’t like that Dodgers proposal…..even if Beltran did start to break-down. Funny to think that years later, we’re still talking about moving Castillo.
Thanks, Omar.
Looking back, I can’t say the Dodgers proposal was awesome, but it would have cleared the payroll sooner and it would have put a young, healthy, productive (at the time) catcher behind the plate for a few years.
I’m mildly surprised, ‘nutz … I know you’re a Beltran fan but figured any deal that made Castillo go away would be awesome in your book.
According to FanGraphs, from 2006-2008, only Grady Sizemore posted a higher WAR than Tron in all of baseball. Plus, Carlos picked up a few Gold Gloves along the way. And in half of season 2009, he hit .325 playing in obvious pain because the Mets had told him to rub some dirt on it.
Roto had his actual performance salary at 33, 32, and 29 million during those years, while he was being paid about half.
The guy got hurt. It happens. I appreciate all that Tron has done as a Met and in my opinion, he’ll go down as the best CF the Mets ever had.
Teenage girls of the 1970s would disagree — to them, Lee Mazzilli was the best CF they ever had.
Though, it doesn’t really matter — how good Beltran performed is moot. The point is the Mets would have been better off over the long-term had they dealt him when his value was still up — and the team was going downhill.
I’m not a Phillips fan, but your reasoning that his opinion was “dumb on many levels” is in fact just plain dumb. Phillips is 100 % correct in stating that Beltran is a “flawed” core player. Beltran was signed and paid as a so called 5 tool player, someone whose batting average consistently exceeds 300. Reality, his 275 batting average is just slightly above average. His average of 21 SB’s per year is slightly above average. And his leadership presence is non existent, essentially making him a “flawed core player”. Further, Beltran’s lack of “grit” as Phillips describes, is tantamount to saying that he is a soft player, which in fact, he is. Prior to his injury, the Mets could have likely secured a front line starting pitcher and a prospect for Beltran. They would’ve have been much better off even if he had remained healthy. Much better off.
How do you know which levels I was referring to?
I think you are selling Beltran short, though I agree 100% that he never should have been given a contract of that magnitude — and that he didn’t come close to fulfilling it. That’s superstar money for someone who was merely a star only two or three times in the first 6 years of the contract.
Even with the injuries and down years, Beltran was still better than the average centerfielder in nearly every facet of the game. How many CFs hit 25-40 HR and get on base 35-40% of the time, steal 20 bases, while providing stellar defense? You can count them on one hand.
As for the grit / leadership / etc. – those are all subjective and immeasurable, and therefore not worth arguing about, because people either believe in that stuff or they don’t — neither side gains any knowledge or changes their opinion as a result. That’s why Phillips was dumb – by throwing out a subjective argument to tens of millions of people, he made himself a target of that part of the population that does not put value on the immeasurable, and in turn, he had no tangible, evidential defense.
Regarding which levels you were referring to, the only quotes you ascribe to Phillips are flawed core player and grit, and in both cases Phillips was correct. While grit may not be statistically measurable, most fans would agree that the word “gritty”s is synonymous with maximum effort. I think most fans can tell the difference between Chase Utley’s effort and Carlos Beltran’s effort, the difference between Wally Backman’s effort and George Foster’s effort.
Having said that, I agree with your assessment that Beltran is above average in every facet of his game. When healthy, he’s a great fielder and a very good power hitter. Ultimately, my point is the same as yours regarding his talent: he is an abover average player who got paid superstar money. Since the Mets have a finite budget, I believe the money could have been better used elsewhere. Finally, if healthy, I think he’ll have a great year in 2011. I think he was just getting used to Citi Field right before he had to shut it down for the year. If he can play 140 games, i could easily see him hitting 285 w/ 30 HR’s and 100+ RBI’s.
Is there any chance Beltran has an all-star type year, the
Mets are doing well at the deadline, and we should be considering signing him to play corner OF in the offseason?
Being right for all the wrong reasons doesn’t make you right, it makes you lucky.
When Beltran has not been hurt, he has been a productive player.I have no problem with him or the contract he was given. The Mets management made a deccision to build a team around Beltran,Wright, and Reyes. Wright and Reyes were both locked up for mutiple years at apretty cheap rate. Were they made the mistake was not being aggressive in other areas of player acquisition. then they over spent on Perez and Castillo. Beltran makes 18.5 million this year. Perez and Castillo makes 18 rhis year. Beltran’s contract has never been the bulk of the Mets problem.
Good points, but have you thought about the possibility that Beltan’s value may get to be high again? Here’s my thinking:
1. Yes, when Beltran returned after the All-Star game last season, he was a shell of his former self, at bat as well as in the field. And he looked bad for quite some time. But…
2. As I recall, in the last few weeks of the season Beltran changed. He looked much better – in fact, I think he looked really good. I believe that, when Beltran was brought up, he simply was brought back too soon from his recovery from knee surgery.
3. What’s more, Beltran himself said he had no spring training last year, and really hadn’t played much at all for a year and a half. This also negatively affected his play.
4. My point is, his poor performance when he came back actually might not have been because he now had a “destroyed” knee. It might, in fact, have been because he was not in shape.
5. If I’m right, and Beltran comes back to hit solidly this year, and makes the plays in the outfield (center or right) that he was making at the very end of last season, he will then be a very attractive player – to any team in this year’s pennant race, and even long-term, particularly to an AL team where he could be a good DH for many years. I even think NL teams will find him attractive.
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
How does anybody know he is soft? because he’s not yellin in the dugout, some of u fans are clowns to assumptions about somebody without knowing them. The guy is a good player that got hurt, thats all there is to it.
I understand that Carlo’s demeanor leaves a lot of people cold (I think that he is just a little shy actually – it’s not a crime), but how can that stop you from noticing that for 3-4 years he was the best center fielder the Mets have ever had, and one of their best position players ever. The man can do it all. He became less effective first because Delgado got old, and then because he hurt his knee. Do other team’s fans spit on their best players because they dare to get injured? I just don’t get it. What do I want from next year? Put Carlos in RF and let him play. If he proves to be healthy and effective, resign him. If not, let him go. He isn’t remotely close to being “the problem”.
And by the way, the fact that he struck out looking in the playoffs isn’t an indication of lazyness, stupidity, or any other personality flaw. It just means Wainwright has an amazing curveball. Would it somehow be better if he flailed away at the pitch and missed by six inches? That wasn’t the problem with that inning.
in 2 or 3 years (maybe sooner) the nationals will be wishing they never met Jason Werth. Carlos was, and maybe still could be, better than werth, and look at the contract werth got, rediculous.
Flawed Core Players:
The Definitive Description of the Mets
Listening to Steve on Beltran, I think he inadvertently nailed what has really been the problem with the Mets all along. In our heart of hearts we all ‘think’ guys like Wright, Reyes and Beltran are “great” players with “great talent” – and yet there’s always just been something “missing” about them, something never quite good enough about them – call it Patrick Ewing syndrome, LOL.
Case in point is Wright, who has streaks where he looks like a hall of famer, until he suddenly cant throw the ball to first, or procedes to strikeout 20 times in a row. Reyes has streaks where he almost feels like one of those special MVP type players who doesnt need to hit homers to be dominant, until he pulls a hammy, or starts swinging at everything in the dirt, or all of a sudden cant pickup a vanilla grounder. And you heard what Steve said about Beltran – talk about someone who knows all about signing flawed players, LOL.
This is THE definitive analysis of the Mets. For whatever the reasons, all the Met core guys have weird inconsistancies and idiosyncracies that truly ‘great’ players dont have. Youklis, Pedroia, Jeter, etc.
More guts and grit, less flaws. They dont ever go thru the same killer funks or play absolutely “terribly” for such long stretches.
What many Met apologists can never admit is that we pay top dollar for guys who are very, very “good” – but just shy of ‘great’ for some reason. Thats why our 140 mill buys us disapointment every year, because we overpay for “good.” Uh, exhibit B, Jason Bay. And, actually, thinking about it now, LOL, this even describes what Johan Santana has now become. We pay him 23 million to be a great… #2 starter! He’s not a true #1 anymore, just as Wright, Reyes and Beltran all ended up not being the ‘best’ CF, SS and 3B.
Even if he was perfectly healthy, you’d still take many other team’s aces: Halliday, Lee, Sabathia, Greinke, Lester, etc etc. And yet we pay him like he’s a Lee or Halliday. Where would Santana fit in? I bet somewhere in the 10-20 range of top starters: yet another perfect very, very ‘good’ Met, just never quite “great” enough.
Spend 130 million on good but never great flawed core players, and then cut every corner on every other player on the team (see selling Billy Wagner to save 2 mil or never spending on draft picks) and u have the recipe for mediocrity.
What’s so insane about the Omar payroll is they spend the first 130 mill like the Yankees… only then they never spend the next 70 on the REST of the team. By spending so much LESS on everything ELSE, you literally NEED those core players to be GREAT, not just good, but perfect. So, literally, flawed core players is our undoing.
Well I for one disagree with Phillips on this one. I don’t think Beltran’s contract is a problem at all, (comparably speaking,) just look at what werth just got. The role players or other guys have been what had plagued this team the past couple of years. If Beltran has a healthy year I would be ok wih him being resigned to a three year deal to play right. Any more years would be foolish. I am not sure how much of a pay cut the can give him but 12 mil a year for three would be great. As far as dumping Castillo I don’t know what to say that hasn’t been said before. Our front office has made some crazy signings over the past four years. Franco, Tatis, Castillo, Perez to name some of my least favorite signings.
Early in the Randolph Regime, I was listening to a Mets game in the car. First inning. Men were on first and second. No outs, Beltran comes up, and BUNTS! Howie Roses’ voice went up six octaves, and I almost drove off the road. All I could think about was what a horrible, anti baseball intelligence move that was. A few days later, he did the same thing and they asked Willie about it. He said that he told (imagine having to tell your 3rd hitter not to bunt in that situation)him not to, but he couldn’t get Beltran to stop. Endy Chavez dove in front of Beltran many times to catch a flyball, while covering more distance because of the angle.I have hated him as a player ever since, and can’t wait until he is gone. He performed without pressure in Houston. He was the only one who did not know that Wainwright was going to throw a curve, and he has never raised the level of play from his team mates and never will. I could go on and on, but my stomach starts to hurt. Showcase him and get rid of him.
I don’t buy Beltran having any trade value, even if he goes off the first half of the year. At best, he’s a former star with bad knees, little speed and questionable defense. Even if a team talks themselves into believing he has something in the tank, the smart move would be to let him play out his contract and sign him at value. Trading anything worthwhile doesn’t make sense.
The only chance the Mets have to move him at all is to eat contract and try to pry a mid-level prospect–or take on a contract in return and swap problems. Either way, the Mets are left holding the Beltran bag.
It’s only a moot point in hindsight. Finishing 1 game out in both 2007 & 2008 was the fault of untimely injuries and Omar’s inability to fix the pen at the deadline.
Without Beltran’s contributions in both of those seasons, perhaps the Mets don’t play any meaningful games in September.
Lets be fair, Steve Phillips always boldly proclaims everyone should be traded….from Strasburg to Beltran to just about anyone with a pulse. Not saying it is a wrong or right move to have moved him, but to call him “right” really doesn’t accomplish anything, since we are strictly dealing with hindsight, which anyone can over-think and write blogs about…