Visitor Comment: The Moneyball Mets
This comment comes from loyal MetsToday visitor “Rob”:
Joe: One question that just occurred to me as I was reading your article was where is the moneyball analysis in all of these mediocre acquisitions? When Alderson was hired, it was “moneyball with money”. Now that we know that the Mets have no money, where is the moneyball? Because that’s where the strengths supposedly lay for Alderson and his brain trust. So where is the overarching plan…where is the moneyball? And while I’m asking, what the heck is moneyball as an overarching philosophy? Is it simply OPS? Is it some other statistical focus? It occurs to me that the success of moneyball is dependent upon the notion that you are signing players that no one else wants because the other teams fail to recognize the statistical value of those “castoff” players. However, now that more than half of the teams employ a sabrmatician and have GM’s that lean in that direction, isn’t the type of player that fits into the moneyball model more expensive because everyone is looking for him now? And if everyone is employing that kind of analysis, then moneyball is no longer a cheap exercise in building a team.
I’d sure like to know where the philosophy is with current management…besides saving money. Because I refuse to believe that there isn’t a long term plan that’s being employed in some way. I just don’t see it right now. I sure hope I’m wrong…
If I had an answer for Rob, then I’d be working in Flushing right now rather than Old Brookville. My best guess as to what is a market inefficiency right now is leveraging the knowledge and research of kinesiology scientists to find, keep, and teach pitchers safe and effective mechanics — while also detecting, preventing, and fixing bad mechanics. But, after seeing the signing of pitchers like Chris Young and Boof Bonser, the acquisition of Zack Wheeler, and the rehab programs of Johan Santana and Jennry Mejia, I’m guessing that hiring scientists is not part of the plan.
So what IS Sandy Alderson’s secret initiative to exploit a market inefficiency? What is it that the Mets front office sees and values that most others aren’t? Any guesses? Post them in the comments.
What we have in Alderson is simply Not Minaya. Minaya did some smart things, but he also did some indefensibly stupid things, and all impressions are that Sandy won’t do that.
Spotting stuff that no one else is spotting comes down to creativity, and this front office has yet to show they’re thinking outside the box. Where’s the kinesiologists, 4-man rotations, splitters, screwballs, international signees, and zen batting drills?
That said, who else out there is really distinguishing themselves? The only recent innovation I can see is the Rays’ bizarre defensive positioning. I wonder if we’ll be early imitators, but it doesn’t see like we have the personnel for it.
Personally, I see two inefficiencies in terms of prospects:
1) Most GMs overvalue them. So perhaps we could exploit that to get decent MLB talent for minor leaguers. Once he proves he’s healthy, I’d like to see what we could get for Mejia. Let someone look at that sick movement and imagine him as an ace, forgetting his shabby K rate and lack of stamina.
2) Most GMs rush them. If you’re so thrilled to have a contributor on your team making league minimum, wouldn’t it be better to have them for more of their prime, instead of just their growth years? Would you rather have a guy’s age 22-26 seasons on the cheap or his age 24-28 seasons? I mean, sure, if you dominate AAA, great, come on up. But we’re seeing more and more young guys who were only competent at AAA, not dominant.
h.s. players (Nimmo) rather than college players. It means a willingness to wait a little longer for their development.
I think that the real reason for the hiring of Alderson is that Bud Selig was able to plant a trusted eye into the Mets front office. Once the Dodgers mess is over and the Madoff-related case is settled the way will be open for Bud to ease the Wilpons out of MLB. Selig is loyal to his friends and doesn’t want to make them look any worse than they do now.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/kc/kansas-city-royals
A tad bit of perspective is helpful. It isn’t a big secret or anything that the ownership wants to cut payroll, including letting Reyes go. But, the remaining team still doesn’t have KC Royals payroll. Not by a longshot.
Check it out the last 5 payrolls for KC:
2011: $ 38,176,000
2010: $ 74,985,210
2009: $ 70,519,333
2008: $ 58,245,500
2007: $ 67,166,500
That’s an average of just under $62M per year — which I believe is a number the Mets could very well be targeting within the next year or two. It’s certainly viable.
Even though he said he’d retire after his last deal was up.
Rejoice, Met fans……he’s gonna ride it out for us!!
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7446844/mlb-commissioner-bud-selig-offered-two-year-extension-contract-source-says
::GROANS::
Can’t save the Wilpons if he retires,
probably will have to pull the trigger on them if he doesn’t.
Truth is Selig should run for President of the USA. As much as I hate what he’s done to destroy MLB, you have to credit him for getting 30 owners to agree. Those Dale Carnegie skills would go a long way with the Senate and House of Reps … though, by the end of his term we’d likely be a communist country.
It appears to me that the high attention levels in NY make it hard for the Mets to develop talent. Atlanta’s prospects are usually overhyped and they get more than they’re worth in trade, while for the Mets it’s just the opposite. Maybe the market inefficiency right now is not in the draft but in AA and AAA player development.