NOTE: This is a post by new MetsToday contributor Dan Capwell. Please direct your comments to him. -Joe

The last time the Mets traded an overpriced closer to a contending team for 2 PTBNL, they ended up getting Chris Carter and Eddie Lora from Boston for Billy Wagner. That deal failed on several levels, which is another blog post in itself. Suffice to say however that the K-Rod to Milwaukee deal stirred those memories and evoked thoughts of “here we go again” among many of the Met faithful.

Then Sandy Alderson ended an interview the WFAN’s Joe and Evan with a cryptic comment that one of the two PTBNLs had already been successful at the major league level but was currently back in Milwaukee’s farm system. So, who might this player be? Well, a quick glance at the roster of the Nashville Sounds (The Brewer’s AAA team) provides several names that might fit the description:

Remember when the Mets traded Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Jason Vargas, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto in return for Sean Green and two other Seattle Mariners? Seems like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it?

Green was supposed to be Pedro Feliciano’s foil – a right-handed situational reliever with the ability to occasionally step in as a setup man. Fans who rejoiced at the arrival of Green and the departure of Heilman soon learned that you must be careful what you wish for. Sure, Green never had the opportunity to allow a postseason homerun; but at the same time, the Mets’ dependence on talents such as Green to fill key bullpen roles was at least part of the reason they’ve been watching the playoffs from home since 2006. For those who forgot, Green was penciled in as the backup to the backup setup man in early 2010 — the man who would step in if Kelvim Escobar and Ryota Igarashi didn’t work out.

2011 Projection

Green’s time as a Met has been marked by inconsistency and injury. In an effort to salvage his career, he converted from sidearmer to submariner – a move that might’ve panned out had he given it enough time. But now that he’s back to being a sidewinder with sporadic control who turns 32 shortly after Opening Day, I’m not sure where he fits in to the Mets’ plans. He’s under the team’s control, but after earning $975K in 2010, does it make sense to renew or go the arbitration route? My guess is they’ll cut him loose and try to re-sign him on a minor-league deal.

Click here to read the 2009 Analysis of Sean Green

My apologies for not posting this earlier, but like most of the news out of Port St. Lucie this spring, it took me a long time to understand and extract the logic.

Let’s just run through specific personnel.

Nelson Figueroa (cut) – He’s not a Cy Young candidate. He’s barely an MLB-quality 5th starter. However, he had a spectacular spring, he had a great winter campaign, he had an outstanding

When the Mets sent 7 players to Seattle and Cleveland last December in a three-team deal centered around J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed was an afterthought. As it turned out, Reed had more of an impact on the Mets than the closer-turned-setup man.

Though, that wasn’t a difficult feat, considering that

Last December, no one would have guessed that Sean Green would be the highest-impact performer from the fateful deal with the Mariners. In many ways, he “replaced” Aaron Heilman — in terms of role(s), overuse, inconsistency, and fans’ whipping boy.

Lucky for Sean Green, the Mets had a terrible, meaningless season — imagine how much abuse he would have received from the boo-birds if the Mets finished, say, only a few games out of first place?

Green came in with the reputation as a sneaky fast, sinkerballing sidearmer who could pitch effectively IF USED JUDICIOUSLY. Much was made about the fact that Green tended to weaken in the second half, and his performance dropped considerably when overused. So naturally, manager Jerry Manuel threw that part of the scouting report out the window and rode him like a wild horse of the Pony Express.

Not surprisingly for a Jerry Manuel reliever, Sean Green set a career high with 79 appearances. He started out poorly, with an ERA of 8.49 in April, but eventually found success in June and July, when he appeared in a total of 30 games and held opposing hitters to a .194 batting average. Manuel tended to use him as a specialist against righthanded hitters, but in fact lefthanded hitters had a lower batting average against him (.223) than righthanded ones (.250).

Because of his inconsistency, Green never really had an established role in the bullpen (or was it the other way around?), and he was used strangely — it seemed as though Manuel would use him for several days in a row, then not use him at all for a week. The final stats support that thought: Green was used with no rest or one day’s rest in 55 of his 79 games. By the end of the season, he was so exhausted and ineffective that he began pitching from a much lower release point — one that was much closer to submarine style. The tweak worked well, as he posted a 2.19 ERA and allowed only 7 hits in his last 17 appearances.

After a rollercoaster of a season, it’s hard to figure out where — or if — Green fits into the Mets’ 2010 bullpen plans. Personally, I’d like to see him stick with that further down under delivery, as I believe it will allow him to pitch more effectively in the Jerry Manuel System of Bullpen Abuse. Even better, I’d like to see what he can accomplish under a manager / pitching coach that pays attention to things like usage and individual differences.

Where They Are Now: Ezequiel Carrera

This afternoon I received an email from the Southern League announcing that Ezequiel Carrera of the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx had won the batting crown.

I’m thinking … “hey, that name sounds familiar!”. Of course it does — Carrera was one of the two dozen players traded by the Mets for Sean Green last winter.

The speedy centerfielder finished the year with a .337 AVG, and also led the league in on-base percentage with a .441 clip. The 22-year-old Venezuelan native also stole 27 bases.

Of course, the Mets are set in centerfield through 2011 with Carlos Beltran, so if the Mets held on to Carrera he wouldn’t have a shot to make the club until he was at least 24 years old. And even then, there’s a good chance Jose Reyes will still be around to man the leadoff spot.

Further, anything can happen between now and then. Carrera’s batting crown is for the Southern League, which is AA ball. Some players can make the jump from there to the bigs but Carrera will likely have to prove himself for at least another year — either by repeating AA or in AAA next season. And truth be told, Carrera is a slap hitter with speed and a good glove — along the lines of a Luis Castillo. In other words, not a potential superstar. Still, thought you’d be interested to see how a former property of the New York Mets performed this year.

A sickening feeling came over me after again looking at this December, 2008 trade:

Mets trade Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto in return for J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green.

Here’s part one of the analysis:

It was only a week ago that Omar Minaya claimed the Mets to be “buyers” rather than “sellers” but that was as much hogwash then as it is now. The Mets have 11 more losses than the NL East-leading Phillies and are 7 1/2 games out of the Wild Card with 65 games to play. Mathmetically, yes, they have a chance to reach the postseason. Realistically, though, it’s not likely.

With four days before the trading deadline, it’s time to see where the Mets can cut their losses and bring in some talent for 2010. Unfortunately, the list of trade bait is pretty short.

Pedro Feliciano

“Pedro Lite” is one of the most sought-after lefthanded relievers right now, in a mix with Joe Beimel, George Sherrill, and John Grabow. But how much will a pennant-starved team give up for a LOOGY? Would it be more than an A-ball suspect or AA filler material? The Mets may be better off holding on to Feliciano, who is showing no signs of slowing down.

Sean Green

Teams need pitching, and are willing to part with talent in return for quality arms. The question is, do other teams consider Green a quality arm? His stock has fallen due to a terrible first half and the fact that his performace drops considerably with overuse. The White Sox recently gave up a slugging first base prospect to pry Tony Pena from the Diamondbacks, and Pena was in the midst of a similarly down season. But, Pena is 27 and has a better track record. Can the Mets obtain a decent player for the 30-year-old Green? It’s worth trying.

Luis Castillo

After a horrible 2008, Castillo is in line for Comeback Player of the Year, and currently sizzling at the plate. There are a few pennant-contending clubs who might be in the market for a second baseman, most notably the White Sox, Twins, and Cubs. The Rockies and Giants might also have room for Castillo’s .400 OBP. However, there is the issue of Castillo’s unbearable contract, which still has two years and $12M remaining after this season. The Mets would certainly have to eat all or most of that money to get anything of value in return — much like the Red Sox’ dumping of Julio Lugo for Chris Duncan.

If the Mets are willing to continue paying Castillo, they might be able to get a prospect or two. For example, the Giants have a switch-hitting second baseman in AA named Brock Bond who is an on-base machine like Castillo, but is already 24 and has no power and only average speed — though, Mets fans would get excited over his currently .350 batting average (he’s projected to be a Jeff Keppinger / Brendan Ryan utility type of guy). The White Sox have some intriguing pitchers at AA and a big young catcher named Tyler Flowers, who was caught with PEDs in 2007 but has done well without them — whether they’d give him up for Castillo, though, is another story. Most likely, the Mets can get a mix of A and AA borderline prospects — similar to what they gave up to get him back in 2007.

Livan Hernandez

In two weeks, Livan went from nearly getting booted from the rotation to emerging as their second-best starter. Everyone always needs pitching, but would anyone give up anything of value for Hernandez — particularly since he projects as a #5 on any contending club?

Angel Pagan

I know, I know — he’s one of the few exciting and dependable players the Mets have in the lineup right now. But he’s also most likely playing the best baseball he’ll ever play in his life — so it may be a good time to “sell high” (i.e., like when the Mets traded Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Desi Relaford). With Carlos Beltran presumably coming back for 2010 and 2011, Pagan’s value to the Mets is diminished. The Tigers and White Sox could be trolling for an outfielder with Pagan’s skillset, and if he can bring back something of value, it’s worth exploring. On the other hand, if you believe Beltran’s knee woes are only beginning, then it makes sense to hold on tight to Pagan, and pencil him into centerfield for next season — because there are no centerfield prospects in the Mets’ minor league system ready to step in.

Brian Schneider

I’m not seeing it. Schneider is a fairly solid defensive catcher with occasional pop, but what is a contending team going to give up for two-month rental who can’t beat out Omir Santos for a starting job? The Mets would get MAYBE an A-ball suspect, and then we’d have Robinson Cancel back in Flushing.

Gary Sheffield

He can’t go anywhere as long as he’s on the DL. If he passes through waivers in August, maybe the Mets can get a AAA guy who was once a prospect but now a suspect.

Conclusion

I keep looking at the Mets’ roster and seeing nothing of value to other teams — a frightening parallel to their minor league system. Veterans not mentioned, such as Fernando Tatis, Tim Redding, Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, Brian Stokes, and Jeremy Reed are all key contributors on this fourth-place team, but to a contending club they are basically worthless — other organizations have similar talent stocked at AAA, so why trade for it?

More disconcerting, even if the Mets are able to pull off a few trades, will they get anything worthwhile in return?

Consider this: the last time the Mets held a fire sale was July 2003, when they unloaded Jeromy Burnitz, Roberto Alomar, Rey Sanchez, Graeme Lloyd, and Armando Benitez — you can argue that those players were as or more more valuable then, than what the Mets have to offer now. The total return on those trades? Jeremy Hill, Jason Anderson, Kenny Kelly, Royce Ring, Victor Diaz, Kole Strayhorn, Joselo Diaz, Edwin Almonte, Andrew Salvo, Anderson Garcia and Ryan Bicondoa. Victor Diaz and Ring made minor contributions, and the rest never made it to Flushing.