Why R.A. Dickey Won’t Win Cy Young Award
From drive-by commenter “Tomahawk Chop,” commenting on the “Cy Young Smackdown: R.A. Dickey vs. Craig Kimbrel” post of October 1:
Mets fans are such sore losers even before the seasons over. The only reason this article exist is because with all of Dickey’s “amazing” starter numbers, ( yes the mets pun refers to ininngs pitched, strikeouts, whip, shutouts, complete games, batting average against) there’s still a shadow of doubt he won’t win the cy young. Why? Afraid the voters might pick the pitcher with the greatest strikeout ratio EVER in baseball, (16.7 Single season record, 15.9 career MLB record) A closer who struck out 49% batters he faced, (that translates to AT LEAST a strikeout every appearance by the way struckout 4 COUNT EM 4 batters in one inning for a save on 9/26/2012) Go ahead try and justify it with some horrible arithmetic that if that was your logic you might as well give the cy young to Johan Santana for throwing the Mets first no hitter. Kimbrel is lights out, (something that can’t be said of any of the Mets revolving door of closers Fransico, Rauch, Parnell) Kimbrel has been absurdly dominant, 1.02 ERA (second only to Fernando Rodney’s MLB record 0.60) MLB leading whip of 0.654, NL leading 42 saves, AND if you don’t believe he’s been dominant check this stat out: ONLY 27 hits allowed 7 ER, 7 R, (remember 231 batters faced, 116 strikeouts ONLY 27 HITS!) Are you kidding me???? If your gonna compare apples and oranges or in this case Starters to Closers, compare them by the criteria they’re judged by. Either way Dickey might of had a “magical” season but Kimbrel is only getting better and has well established himself as the BEST closer in baseball and put up the BEST numbers by one in a single season. And the best comparison and argument you can come up with is Eric Gagne and his save percentage? Weak…. But what can you expect from fans of a team that choked after the allstar break crashing in a ball of fire back to the snake bitten franchise that other teams beat up on to make it to the postseason. Either way if the only thing you guys have to cling to is one award for a journey man pitcher who the Mets will probably trade away anyway, maybe the voters will throw you guys a bone. From Braves country, looking forward to watching the Bravos spank you guys in 2013 and years to come!
My, my, didn’t take long for those Braves fans to become ornery, seething, and bitter. I suppose that’s what happens when Bud Selig changes the rules at the last minute and pulls a Wild Card security blanket out from under your feet — in turn, making your winter misery only one day shorter than a Mets fan’s.
Reading between the vitriol, “Tomahawk” does present valid points. If you measure dominance in terms of strikeouts, then Kimbrel has put together one of, if not the, most dominant seasons in MLB history. And certainly, his 0.65 WHIP is mind-blowing. He wasn’t perfect, however, as he blew 3 saves and lost one game. A tiny amount, but no losses and no blown saves would have provided more support for his Cy Young case.
Of course, Dickey wasn’t perfect, either. But, Dickey threw 170 more innings than Kimbrel, which is arguably more valuable to a club. Could Kimbrel have maintained his other-worldly dominance
as a starter? Through 200+ innings? Unlikely, and that’s why most writers will give their first-place vote to a starter such as Dickey or Gio Gonzalez.
And that brings up Kimbrel’s best chance of winning the Cy Young: votes split among R.A., Gio, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, and Johnny Cueto. Yes, I can see all five collecting first-place votes. Heck, Kyle Lohse might even garner a vote from a Missouri scribe. With votes split among so many starters, it’s conceivable that Kimbrel could walk away with the Cy Young Award; certainly, he’ll get his share of first-place votes.
Try to block out Tomahawk’s tone and consider Kimbrel’s numbers, the playing field of candidates, and the tendencies of today’s voters: how do you think this will shake out? Consider, also, that (unlike us) few of the voters watched every one of R.A.’s starts, so they’re basing their vote mostly on the stat lines; will they take into consideration the Mets’ ineptitude? Will they hold against R.A. the fact he pitched in the media capital of the world?
Post your thoughts in the comments.
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Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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Wow, sure sounds like Tomahawk will be spending this offseason in therapy. The Braves certainly deserve credit as a model of how to run a baseball organization, but their postseason performance has been dreadful. Anyhow, regarding the Cy Young, Kimbrel hdid have an all-time great season for a closer, no doubt. There is certainly a case to be made for his candidacy. Ultimately, I think starting pitching is more important, and I think this is proven consistently through player salaries. So, I think a closer can win the Cy Young award, but it would require both a dominant season and a weak group of starting candidates. This year, both RA and Gio had great seasons, so I think one of them should wind up winning. We’ll see soon enough.
Dickey Kimbrel
IP 62.2 62.2
BF 223 231
K 76 116
BB 8 14
H 29 27
R 7 7
ER 6 7
HR 1 3
WHIP 0.590 0.654
ERA 0.862 1.01
And oh yeah….Dickey pitched ANOTHER 170 innings on top of that. Closers win Cy Young awards because voters are stupid. No other reason.
As for Tomahawk, I would recommend a good therapist.
good one dan b!
P.S. no pitcher who comes in for just ONE friggin inning, often with the bases empty, should ever win the CY Young.
So next season when the Braves win about 80 games because there is no replacing Chipper we as Mets fans will be laughing once again. As our farm system continues to build a championship pitching staff and in time we will be the class of the national league I will sit here and laugh at the Braves two years in a row choking.
And remember, all of these fine, intelligent folks vote, too.
We ought to do the NFL thing: “Upon further review, the South won the Civil War. You are now an independent separate nation. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.”
Craig Kimbrel = Rolaid’s Relevier of the Year
(for the NL cuz he wouldn’t win it if in AL)
and Do they even have that award still? lol
Kimbrel is a one-inning pitcher. A man who, after 30/40 pitches on a bad night, would have a manager thinking about removing him to avoid over-tiring his arm. Dickey, on the other hand, regularly threw over 110+ pitches over 7+ innings every game he went into. He wins 20 games for his sub-par team (a number that, given better defense and hitting, would certainly have been higher). Leads the league in several pitching categories. Climbs Kilimanjaro to raise money for a worthwhile cause. Overcomes all odds at a late-30s age to realize his dream. Publishes a well-written autobiography. Has become, what i referred to my gf as while watching his back-to-back CG-Shut outs unfold, my hero.
There is no denying Kimbrel is a dominant relief pitcher. But put him in as a starter and his numbers would without a doubt level out. The story of RA is one that needs to be taken into consideration, as well as the significance of the pitch he has mastered to do it. Kimbrel only needs to look to who wears NY pinstripes to see the most dominant closer in MLB history, anyway. Plus I believe there are 2 other closers in the mlb with more saves this year, and others with the same number of saves, that put it a little more into perspective why a closer doesn’t deserve the CY this year.
By the way– this braves fan, like all of those who threw trash all over their field watching an unfortunate post-season performance, need to go soak their heads. Don’t try to compare Kimbrel to 3 Mets who shared closing duties for a team in rebuilding mode. Instead, take any Braves starter and put him against RA. That argument seems about as ridiculous, doesn’t it?
I got the chance to watch Kimbrel live, and he’s something else, I wish the Mets could get him, but if the Starting pitching don do their job, whats the point on having ligths-out bullpen.
Another good example are the Reds.
While Kimbrel’s season is definetly Cy Young worthy, his strikeout rate must be taken with a grain of salt. The record breaking strikeout rate must be regressed due to the actual changes in the game. All in all his historic strikeout rate is only a teeny bit better then Gagne’s 2003 historic and Cy Young worthy season but without the 55 saves record.
I just don’t think Gio should even be involved in the convo. It’s between Dickster and Kimbrell as far as I’m concerned. And normally I wouldn’t be for a relief pitcher winning it, especially a Brave. But we’re talkin about one of the most dominating seasons in history, in the age of babying starting pitchers, where relief pitching is that much more important to win.
As for babied starters, well, no pitcher in baseball was babied more than Kimbrel. If you want to see a reliever pulling the load for his team, check what O’Day’s done for the Orioles this week! More multi-inning appearances and inherited runners stranded than Kimbrel had all season. But I hear you on the general Strasburgian trend.
You know who’s really close? Kenley Jansen:
2010 – .130 avg, 13.7 K/9
2011 – .159 avg, 16.1 K/9
How many Cy Young votes did he get? Zero. Too few innings. There’s also Billy Wagner:
1999 – .135 avg, 14.9 K/9
He got some Cy votes, but finished well behind not just Randy Johnson but also Mike Hampton and Kevin Millwood. Why? 75 innings just wasn’t enough.
Kimbrel’s right in between. Right in between a guy who got zero first place votes, and a guy who got zero votes period. He pitched a whole season, unlike Jansen, but pitched a cushy workload, unlike Wagner.
That’s something else the stats reveal: Kimbrel had perhaps the easiest job in baseball: come in to start a clean inning, get 3 outs, take a shower. 60 of his 62 appearances were exactly that. Even one-out lefties sometimes come in with somebody else’s baserunner to worry about, for Pete’s sake.
If dominance as a super-specialist really deserves major award consideration, then where are the plaques for Jess Orosco (who led the league every year in getting Barry Bonds out), or for all those pinch-hitter who had one great year where they hit over .400?
Gagne had a smaller role than a starting pitcher, and was a questionable choice for Cy Young. Kimbrel had a much smaller role than Gagne, and is a bit below “questionable”.
Here’s a prediction for how they finish up in the voting:
1. Dickey
2. Kershaw
3. Gio
4. Kimbrel
5. Cueto
I think Dickey and Kershaw will be close in the voting. Gio won’t be far behind. Kimbrel will get votes, but he won’t be close to the first 3.
I hope Tomahawk Chop has begun his offseason therapy. It will take a lot to straighten him out.