OK, who out there is a conspiracy theorist?
Here’s the case: within hours of losing superstar shortstop Jose Reyes, Mets GM Sandy Alderson schedules a press conference to announce the signings of two ho-hum relievers and a similarly unexciting trade with the San Francisco Giants. Coincidence? Continue reading
Update to my previous post evaluating the Mets’ trade with the Giants: I’ve heard some people claim that Pagan was unlucky in 2011, while Torres was not. On the surface, it doesn’t appear as though Pagan was much more unlucky than Torres in 2011. Pagan had a .285 BABIP last year, compared to career average of .314. Torres, meanwhile, had a .293 BABIP, compared to a .307 career average. There’s a difference, mind you, but I don’t think it’s really significant.
In fact Pagan’s xBABIP (expected BABIP) was exactly .315 last season. Torres’s, however, was even higher: .316. Yes Pagan’s LD% (24%), was much higher than Torres’s (15.35%). Contrary to popular belief, however, LD% only has a small correlation with BABIP
Overall, while Pagan was a better hitter than Torres in 2011, I think the fact Torres was a much better fielder last season, and was an equally better hitter in 2010, makes up for their offensive disparity last season.
While Pagan and Torres will be hard pressed to repeat their 2010 performance, I believe both are better than they showed in 2011 as well.
According to Joel Sherman of the NY Post, the Mets are looking for suitors for LHP Jonathan Niese, possibly selling him as an affordable alternative to those who are unable to acquire Gio Gonzalez. Teams who lost out on Mark Buehrle (who signed a 4-year, $58 MM deal with – guess who – the Miami Marlins) may also be interested in the Mets starter.
Niese has had two eerily similar seasons in 2010 and 2011, as you can see by the copy/paste below:
In addition, he’s seemingly run out of gas/broken down during the second half of each year. He had a 1.53 WHIP in the second half of 2011, and a 1.57 WHIP in 2010.
Given his age (25), the Mets aren’t desperate to trade him, but will if they can get a good starting pitcher in return, plus prospects.
According to Sherman, the Padres, Rockies, and Red Sox are interested in acquiring Niese.
Earlier today, a trade rumor about Mets 1B Ike Davis created a brief commotion, before Andy Martino of the Daily News reported the rumor was untrue.
Mets trade OF Angel Pagan to San Francisco for OF Andres Torres and RP Ramon Ramirez: The Mets got the upper hand of this deal, period. It’s not blatantly obvious, mind you; for all I know, Pagan will be worth 6 WAR season next year, while Kirk Nieuwenhuis will displace Torres as the starting center fielder by Memorial Day, and the Mets will trade Tores for cash considerations in August.
But on paper, this looks like a good deal. Swapping Pagan for Torres is more-or-less a lateral move, and on top of that, the Mets get a very good reliever in Ramon Ramirez.
Here’s some more extensive analysis on the deal:
Pagan: After posting an excellent 5.5 WAR season in 2010, Pagan hit just .262/.322/.372 and was worth just 0.9 WAR in 2011. His OPS. fell by over 70 points from 2010 to 2011 (.765 to to .694). His defensive decline, however, was even more precipitous, at least according to UZR. After supposedly saving 15.4 runs while splitting time between left, right, and center in 2010, Pagan cost the Mets -14.3 runs as their everyday center fielder in 2011. He also missed over a month’s worth of time in June with a stress fracture in his rib, and has quite a lengthy injury history.
Torres: Torres had an even better 2010 than Pagan. He was worth 6.8 WAR, tying for the 8th highest total in baseball with a guy named Jose Bautista. Like Pagan, he played every outfield position in 2010, saving 22 runs on defense, while providing excellent value at the plate (.268/.343/.479).
Torres was more valuable in 2011 than Pagan, totaling 2.1 WAR despite playing in 11 less games. While Torres offense steeply declined in 2011 (.221/.312/.330), he maintained his value defensively as the Giants everyday center fielder, saving 9.4 WAR. The injury bug also bit Torres in 2011, as he missed over 40 games with lower leg problems.
Ramirez: The 30 year-old Ramirez has bounced between Colorado, Kansas City, Boston, and San Fran the past four seasons, but he’s been solid everywhere he’s been, and 2011 was his best season yet: he posted a 2.62 ERA, with a 8.65 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, while also keeping the ball in the park (0.39 HR/9), with a 50% GB rate. While unspectacular, Ramirez does everything well; he misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground, and keeps his free passes in line.
Mets sign RP Jon Rauch to one year deal for $3.5 million, with a $3.75 mil. club option and $250,000 buyout:
Out of the three moves, I’m most skeptical about the Rauch signing. Rauch’s strikeout rate has declined the past two seasons, he’s a flyball-happy pitcher (which may be a problem at Citi Field next year given the altered dimensions), and his velocity was also down a bit in 2011. He posted a 4.85 ERA and a 5.26 FIP with the Blue Jays last season. My guess is that Alderson and co. are banking on Rauch’s numbers improving by getting out of the AL East. He was very reliable for the Twins in 2010. At $3.5 million, this signing might work out fine for the Mets, although I wonder if there were cheaper alternatives available.
Mets sign Frank Francisco for 2 years, $12 million: Francisco’s probably the front runner for the closing job next season. He throws hard, racks up the Ks, and like Rauch, does tend to allow his fair share of homers. I think the Mets get fair value out of Francisco.
Between Francisco, Bobby Parnell, Manny Acosta, Ramirez, Rauch, and Tim Byrdak, the Mets have the makings of a pretty solid bullpen. Perhaps they’ll dangle Bobby Parnell this winter? If anything, I’m assuming they’ll be less interested in relievers in this year’s rule five draft.
While I generally scoff at the notion of long-term, expensive contracts for relievers, I can’t help but wonder: Given the softening closer’s market, instead of signing Francisco and Rauch for a combined $10 million dollars next season, wouldn’t the Mets have been better off simply signing Ryan Madson for three years, $30 million to close?
Never mind what the Marlins are doing — nothing compares to the madness of the Mets at the winter meetings!
Sure, the Mets lost shortstop Jose Reyes, but Sandy Alderson is not one to let grass grow under his feet. The genius GM made a whirlwind of moves guaranteed to make the Mets almost as good as they were in 2011 — and at minimum, assures them a fifth-place finish in the NL East.
Sit down, because the plethora of moves will knock you backward if you’re standing. Continue reading
Perhaps lost in the excitement of Jose Reyes joining the Miami Miracle is the fact that a few days earlier, the Mets also lost Chris Capuano to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who signed the lefthanded starter for 2 years, $10M — which was about 1 year and $8.5M more than the Mets could afford.
This isn’t huge news, but it may be surprising to some Continue reading
As most expected, Jose Reyes left Flushing. He signed a 6-year, $106M deal with the Miami Miracle Marlins.
Guess what? Fred Wilpon was right: Reyes didn’t get “Carl Crawford money”. Good for Fred; I bet he’s laughing his way all the way to the bank soup line.
According to various reports, the Mets Continue reading
According to Fox Sports’s Ken Rosenthal, the Miami Marlins have agreed to a 6-year, $106MM deal with former Mets shortstop Jose Reyes.
If true, it’s a good gamble for the Marlins. Along with Ozzie Guillen, he will bring fans of every race, creed, and color to Miami, but especially the Latin-American contingent.
Six years? Maybe not so smart. Reyes has had trouble staying healthy, and proved it in 2011. The Mets, along with every other team in the majors, stayed away from Reyes this offseason, following his stints on the DL.
The Marlins seem like the 2005 Mets. Willing to spend exorbitant amounts of money to draw fans. Their spending may not be finished. They have offers out to Albert Pujols and Mark Buehrle as well. Will their spending pay off? Recent history has suggested that the winners in the offseason (often the Mets) have not been winners on the field. Just ask the Washington Nationals (helloooo, Jayson Werth).
What does this mean for the Mets? More money to spend on the bullpen, and other areas of need. A couple of more draft picks to build for the future. And for a team at least reportedly $400MM in the red, a little more flexibility for the future.