The Problem with Prospect Rankings

Posted on August 30, 2010 by Matt Himelfarb

I have been following Amazin Avenue’s Community Prospect List. It appears that Kirk Nieuwenhuis has emerged as the consensus number-two prospect in the system behind Wilmer Flores. I am not saying I disagree with the ranking, but I will say, if accurate, it is more a testament to the weakness of the Mets farm system, than it is a fair reflection of Nieuwenhuis’s talent, which really would not be number-two worthy in most organizations.

I really brought this up, though, because I find it interesting how Sean Ratliff, who profiles very similarly to Nieuwenhuis, has yet to appear on the list (AA is voting on number eight, and Ratliff is sixth in the voting for that spot last time I checked), and people still shy away from calling him a top-ten prospect. In fairness, Nieuwenhuis has a lengthier track record of success, while Ratliff, aside from his two-and-a-half months in Binghamton, was a non-prospect.

If you compare their production with AA Binghamton, however, there is no comparison. Ratliff has vastly outperformed Nieuwenhuis:

Ratliff: 272 PA .332/.379/.614/.993 OPS. .426 wOBA .275 ISOP 7% BB% 23.5% K%

Nieuwenhuis: 430 PA .289/.337/.510/.371 wOBA .220 ISOP 6.7% BB% 21.6% K%

Yes, Nieuwehuis has a larger sample size, and for what it’s worth he is six months younger than Ratliff, but I do not think either of those facts compensate for an over 50 point disparity in wOBA, or an almost 150 point difference in OPS. Nieuwenhuis has also struggled mightily since being promoted to Buffalo (.195/.264/.329 in 91 PA).

Also, while his strikeout rate has remained on the high-end during his time in Binghamton, check out Ratliff’s walk rate over that span:

June (67 PA): 3%

July (123 PA): 4.1%

August (82 PA): 14.6%

The dude basically went from Jeff Francoeur to Adam Dunn in a month. I am guessing that has a lot to do with the fact pitchers are finally pitching around the new and improved Ratliff, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Both players are regarded as athletic outfielders, that may or may not have the range to stick in center field.

It is difficult to rank the Mets farm system. I think Reese Havens and Zach Lutz are far superior to Ratliff and Nieuwenhuis when they’re on the field, but neither of them has proven they can stay healthy. Duda is the best pure hitter of the bunch and has stayed healthy, but he is also probably a below average corner outfielder. You could make a real radical statement and say Darrell Ceciliani or Aderlin Rodriguez is the best of the bunch, but they carry with them a lot of downside. Then you have to factor in pitchers like Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey, and suddenly you have nine guys with no obvious advantage over each other.

And that is the problem with rankings. They add the illusion of distinction when, sometimes, as in this case, none is warranted. At the same time, that is what makes it fun, challenging, and let’s face, gives it real world pertinence. Out of the nine, one might blossom into a superstar, one or two of them might pull a Brad Holt next year, and you wonder why they were ever considered prospects in the first place, and the rest will end up in between. As a general manager, most of them are your trade chips, and you have to remember prospects get you fired, lest you end up looking like Steve Phillips.

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Mets Game 130: Win Over Astros

Posted on August 29, 2010 by Joe Janish

Mets 5 Astros 1

Back to .500 — now what?

Game Notes

R.A. Dickey was his usual spectacular self, setting down the ‘stros through seven stellar innings, allowing just six hits, two walks, and one run. Should we now be expecting him to pitch this way?

Josh Thole was the offensive star of the ballgame, hitting a double, a solo homer, walking once, and scoring twice. Dickey helped himself by going 2-for-3 with 2 RBI and a run. Maybe he should get a crack at left field.

Freshly called up shortstop Luis Hernandez played shortstop instead of Ruben Tejada. Very strange, since Tejada was on a hot streak — he had a walk, a hit, and an RBI in his last three plate appearances. The poor kid finally gets the bat going and he’s sent to the bench — what sense does that make?

Next Mets Game

The Mets fly down to Atlanta to begin a crucial four-game series against the first-place Braves on Monday night, with first pitch at 7:10 PM. Pat Misch faces Jair Jurrjens. If the Mets can sweep the Braves, they will cut Atlanta’s lead to only six-and-a-half games with 28 to play — not an insurmountable gap (just ask the 2007 Mets).

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Mets Game 129: Loss to Astros

Posted on August 29, 2010 by Joe Janish

Astros 4 Mets 1

Win one, lose one. Win one, lose one …

As usual, the Mets follow a victory with a loss, sinking one game below the holy grail of .500.

Game Notes

Johan Santana wasn’t stellar, but he wasn’t awful, either. But when the offense can only muster one measly run off of four Houston pitchers, anything less than a shutout is a death knell. Santana spun seven innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and a walk, striking out four.

But Brett Myers shut out the Mets through seven, and three Astro relievers closed out the ballgame.

Carlos Lee drove in three of Houston’s four runs with a single and a two-run homer, and David Wright drove in the only Mets run with an eighth-inning single.

Next Mets Game

The rubber match begins at 1:10 PM. R.A. Dickey faces Bud Norris.

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Game 128: Win Over Astros

Posted on August 27, 2010 by Joe Janish

Mets 2 Astros 1

Mike Pelfrey threw ice on the red-hot Houston Astros, Ruben Tejada collected his first hit in 9 days, David Wright drove in his 85th run of the year, and Hisanori Takahashi saved the day as the Mets won the first game of the three-game series and reclaimed their goal of .500 ball.

Game Notes

After a difficult, 31-pitch first frame, Big Pelf settled down and set down the ‘stros through the next seven, allowing no runs on six hits and two walks. Rebounding after that tough first inning fueled his confidence, and he rolled the rest of the way.

However, the win was in jeoporady in the ninth when Bobby Parnell allowed two one-out singles — the second of which included an error by Angel Pagan that put runners on the corners. Rather than let the young fireballer learn to work out of a jam in this meaningless ballgame, Jerry Manuel summoned Takahashi from the bullpen, who allowed an RBI single before getting the final two outs. Yes, the preference is to see the Mets win games, and yes, it would’ve been a damn shame if Pelfrey didn’t earn a victory, but if Parnell isn’t going to be given a chance to find his way out of a mess in that situation, then when will he? Or will he ever? His development is being stunted because Manuel is still managing for his job — not good for the long-term health of the organization.

Speaking of long-term, Tejada not only hit a single to boost his average to .169, but he also drew a bases-loaded walk to drive in what turned out to be the winning run.

Two former Mets were in the game for the Astros: Anderson Hernandez (who is hitting 53 points higher than Tejada, but still dangerously close to the Mendoza Line), and Nelson Figueroa, who was the tough-luck loser in allowing only two runs on three hits in seven innings.

Yes, you got that right — the Mets had only three hits on the night, completely shut down by Nelson Figueroa. Not Ed Figueroa, but Nelson Figueroa. And neither of the runs were scored via a hit — the first run came on a sac fly by Wright.

Next Mets Game

Game two occurs at 7:10 PM on Saturday night. Johan Santana faces Brett Myers.

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Friday Mets Links

Posted on August 27, 2010 by loge mezzanine

ESPN NY – Jeff Wilpon is openly hostile to Omar Minaya in team meetings. This is a pretty big deal, since the team holds conference calls with 2-3 dozen “chefs” in the “kitchen.” That’s gotta be embarrassing.

The Daily Stache – Kevin Kearns asks whether Mets fans should root for the team to lose in order to improve its draft position. No, you root for the Mets to lose in the hopes that the Wilpons sell or, at the very least, Omar is sent packing.

NBC Sports – Josh Alpern thinks the Mets should have a reality show to celebrate their idiocy. Flushing Shore, featuring Mix Master and Jeff-Woww? Amazin! [via MetsPolice]

Brooklyn Met Fan – Looks like BMF is throwing in the towel on the 2010 season.

ESPN NY – A profile of Brooklyn Cyclones outfielder Darrell Ceciliani.

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Mets Game 127: Loss to Marlins

Posted on August 27, 2010 by Joe Janish

Marlins 11 Mets 4

At first, it seemed as though the game was in the bag for the Mets. They had a 4-zip lead early on, and Jonathon Niese was mowing down the Fish, striking out 6 in the first three frames.

The Fish chipped out two in the fourth on a homer by Hanley Ramirez, and then fed on Niese like piranha in the sixth, splashing seven runs before the tide rolled out.

Oh, and to add injury to insult, Jose Reyes left the game in the first inning with an aggravation of his oblique injury. He’ll be out at least one game, and until he “is completely healed”.

Game Notes

Niese looked so good initially, then completely fell apart. 5 2/3 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, but 8 Ks. It was too ugly to talk about.

In contrast, Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez looked awful at first, but wound up the winner. He was walking and hitting batters like it was his intention, and allowed 15 baserunners in 5 innings, but the futile Flushing offense couldn’t take advantage, leaving a dozen men on base. This game was representative of the three-game series, and the Marlins-Mets meetups in general, in that it always seems like the Fish are trying to give the game away but the Mets appear unable to take it from them. Ever since Joe Girardi left, the Marlins have been a fundamentally flawed team that finds ways to lose ballgames — a function of having a tiny payroll and playing kids who should be getting seasoning in the minors. Yet, they’re a game and a half ahead of the Mets in the standings.

Ah, yes, the standings. The Mets gained no ground on the Phillies, who were swept by the Astros in four straight, nor the Braves, who lost their last three. They’re once again under .500 and 10 games back in the NL East.

But let’s try to be positive. For example, David Wright is definitely “in the zone”, as he had two more hits including a monstrous homer in the first. Angel Pagan is also long beyond his mini-slump, as he collected two more hits, including a double.

Another positive: Manny Acosta threw two perfect innings, expending just 18 pitches in the process.

Further, Jeff Francoeur had two hits, an RBI, and a walk (!) and made a fantastic catch at the wall in the sixth of a Wes Helms liner … but allowed a blooper by Brett Hayes to bounce into the stands only minutes later.

Speaking of Francoeur, during the postgame coverage on SNY, the ebullient rightfielder was quoted as saying “…after they scored the ninth run, it was pretty much over.” Hmm … at that point, it was 9-4. Not to nitpick, but about 24 years earlier, there were two teams that came back from 10-1 deficits to win. Being down five runs doesn’t seem so insurmountable compared to being down nine. Maybe that defeatist mentality is something solely specific to Francoeur — or maybe it is something that has been cultivated by Jerry Manuel over the past two and a half years. You’ve been watching this team over that period, so you be the judge.

So much for the positive.

Next Mets Game

The Mets host the red-hot Houston Astros for a weekend series in Flushing beginning Friday at 7:10 PM. Mike Pelfrey faces former Met Nelson Figueroa.

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Should the Mets Claim Manny Ramirez?

Posted on August 26, 2010 by Joe Janish

Rumor has it that the Dodgers have placed Manny Ramirez on waivers — and you thought we’d go through an entire season without a Manny rumor.

There is also speculation that Manny has already been claimed by the White Sox, and a deal is imminent that will send him to Chicago.

But just for a moment, let’s assume he is NOT going to Chicago, and the waiver process is still taking place. Should the Mets claim him?

Yes, Manny today is probably not the Manny of two years ago. We have Keith Law telling us his bat speed is not what it was. We have our eyes telling us his defense is even more awful than it’s ever been. We have the stats showing that his performance is not up to his norm.

But he is still a better hitter, right now, than at least four or five of the men that Jerry Manuel writes into the lineup every day. And he is a better hitter, right now, than Jeff Francoeur and Carlos Beltran.

True enough, Manny will give up runs in the field. But the Mets cannot win games because of an inability to score runs. Any strength they have in the outfield corners right now is negated by the fact they can’t outscore their opponents.

So, if the Wilpons and Omar Minaya are absolutely serious about their conviction that the Mets are still in the playoff hunt, how could they NOT put in a claim for Manny Ramirez?

They can’t say it’s because of Manny’s salary, because they’ve been insisting all along that money is not an issue — that they will spend whatever they need to spend in order to win. And they can’t say it’s because they don’t want to give up any young, talented prospects, because there is a chance that the Dodgers won’t ask for any players in return — they may just be happy to dump Ramirez’s contract. In fact, you would think that the Dodgers “owe” the Mets a favor, since the Mets gift-wrapped Rule 5 pick Carlos Monasterios for them in December for “cash considerations”, and most recently handed over Rod Barajas in a similar deal. In return, the Dodgers should feel inclined to give the Mets a break and not demand a major prospect.

Sure, there is the argument that Manny is some kind of a poison in the clubhouse or otherwise “bad” person to have on a team — and if he is, at this point, does it really matter? If Omar Minaya truly believes the Mets are still in the playoff race, that they are trying to win games and hopefully they have a run in them down the stretch, then taking a chance on Manny Ramirez right now is a no-brainer. Seriously now, who would you rather have in the lineup — Manny Ramirez or Jeff Francoeur? If there is anyone on the planet who is currently available that has an outside shot of getting hot enough to carry the Mets to the “run” Minaya is referring to, it is Manny Ramirez.

But the rumor of Manny going to Chicago is probably true, because the Mets probably didn’t put in a claim for Ramirez, because they don’t really believe they have a chance to get back into the playoff race. Strange though, because even if the Mets are lying about their faith in still being in the race, by bringing in Manny, they’d likely sell a few extra tickets … though perhaps not enough to cover the $4M still on his salary?

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Mets Game 126: Loss to Marlins

Posted on August 26, 2010 by Joe Janish

Marlins 5 Mets 4

So close … but it was a case of too little, too late. And a shame, too, because the Mets had an opportunity to gain another game on BOTH the Braves and the Phillies.

And we DO want the Mets to continue fighting for a playoff spot, don’t we?

Game Notes

Starter Pat Misch was not outstanding, but he wasn’t awful, either … he was about what you’d expect from a fill-in fifth starter who has spent most of the year in AAA: 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 4 K. In other words, better than what Oliver Perez might’ve accomplished.

What DOES Perez do these days, by the way? He was seen shadow-boxing in the bullpen, which may be preparation for a new career. Maybe he can fight Mike Tyson, who can also use some work. Or maybe Chuck Wepner, aka the “Bayonne Bleeder”, who would then parlay the event into a Rocky 7 movie. Or perhaps into a “Real Rocky” movie, where Ollie stands on stilts and plays the role of Andre the Giant (and Ryota Igarashi can play Antonio Inoki).

Sorry, I digress …

Back to the issue that is irrelevant to game 126, Perez hasn’t pitched since August 1 — it’s been a full 24 days. Even Aaron Sele would’ve made an appearance by now. Heck, Wepner would’ve thrown an inning by now, even at age 71. But, the Mets are still in the race. Right.

Wait, why am I talking about Oliver Perez when David Wright went 2-for-4 with 3 runs and a homer, Josh Thole and Jeff Francoeur each had two hits, and Ike Davis hit his first MLB triple? Because that was the absolute, complete extent of the Mets offense, that’s why. Ain’t much more story to tell, unfortunately.

Next Mets Game

The rubber match occurs at 7:10 PM in Flushing on Thursday evening. Jonathon Niese faces Anibal Sanchez.

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