Jason Bay Out: Deja Vu All Over Again

Posted on July 27, 2010 by Joe Janish

According to a tweet by Kevin Burkhardt, Jason Bay is suffering from a mild concussion and may be out for this three-game series vs. the Cardinals. Apparently, he felt symptoms on the plane trip back from the Left Coast. Cross-country plane trip? Concussion? Corner outfielder? Where have I heard this story before?

Additionally, Jerry Manuel has been suspended for his “ump bump” in Los Angeles.

Further, Rod Barajas was placed on the 15-day DL with a strained oblique. Corner infield slugger Mike Hessman was promoted from AAA to take his place on the roster. Hessman has hit 9 HR in his last 78 MLB at-bats, spanning two years (2007-2008). How does one smack one homer every 8.7 ABs and not get a chance to play for a year and a half?

With Bay, Jeff Francoeur returns to RF and Angel Pagan moves to left. It would be nice to see Chris Carter get some playing time but that doesn’t appear in the plans. Francoeur has 3 hits in 11 ABs (.273) vs. Adam Wainwright, and will get the start this evening. Josh Thole catches in place of Barajas and I imagine will get the bulk of the duty back there for the next two weeks.

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Mets Meaningful Number: 19

Posted on July 27, 2010 by loge mezzanine

With the Mets in a tailspin and the postseason slipping out of reach, let’s take a look at what it will take for the team to play “meaningful games in September.”

By no means is this the definitive way to figure out the “meaningful” number. Consider it a jumping off point for the more statistically-inclined among us to calculate what it will take to achieve Fred Wilpon’s version of success.

For the purposes of this post, we’ll assume that the Mets would need to be within five games of the wildcard on September 1, in order for their games to still be meaningful in the eyes of ownership.

Step 1 – Take the number of games remaining before September 1 and multiply by the winning percentage of the current wildcard leader.

33 x .560 = 18.48

Step 2 – Take the number of games out of the wildcard lead and subtract 5.

5 – 5 = 0

Step 3 – Add the results of Step 1 and 2

18.48 + 0 = 18.48

Step 4 – Take the result from Step 3 and round up

18.48 = 19

So assuming the wildcard leader will play at a .560 clip between now and September, the Mets will have to go 19-14 during that time to remain within five games of the wildcard lead.

The Mets meaningful number currently stands at 19.

Have a better way to calculate the Meaningful Number? Share it in the comments section.

Posted in Opinion and Analysis | Tagged | 17 Comments

Mets Second-half Plan: What Would You Do?

Posted on July 27, 2010 by Joe Janish

After admitting that no one’s job was safe, and sitting behind closed doors to discuss the plans for the immediate future of the team, the Mets’ front office came away with the decision to do absolutely nothing.

Just for a minute, pretend that you were sitting at the conference table on Monday and had a vote. What would you have recommended? Vote below and/or provide your comments.

[poll id=”23″]

Posted in poll | 14 Comments

HoJo is Safe !

Posted on July 26, 2010 by Joe Janish

Contrary to the previous report posted right here, Howard Johnson’s job as hitting coach is safe — for the moment.

Turns out the Mets’ management is completely dysfunctional and in as much disarray as you might imagine.

Somehow, some way, someone convinced somebody that making a change right now was not the right decision.

That said, the coaching staff will indeed remain intact — HoJo included.

In other words, after Omar Minaya told the world that everyone was under review, and after the Mets front office admitted publicly that they were “in discussions” for all of Monday, the final decision was that no change was necessary. Apparently, the final assessment from the “brain trust” is that the team, the coaching staff, and the management as currently constituted is competent, capable, and poised to make a miraculous run over the next 60 games to push the Mets into the postseason and challenge for a World Championship.

And why would we think otherwise?

Posted in Rumors | Tagged | 2 Comments

HoJo On the Way Out

Posted on July 26, 2010 by Joe Janish

According to sources close to the situation, Howard Johnson will be relieved of his duties as batting coach for the New York Mets.

You may have read or heard Jon Heyman’s report that “there has been no discussion of Howard Johnson” and that Jerry Manuel’s job is “safe”. Kevin Burkhardt is tweeting similar “news”.

However, our sources are reporting quite the opposite.

For one, Johnson’s role was most definitely discussed and almost surely will change. It is possible that he won’t be fired outright — for example, he could be “reassigned” to another area of the organization. Or maybe the Mets will do something like they did in 2008 with Rickey Henderson. Perhaps they’ll hire Darryl Strawberry to teach the players how to swallow fire — who knows? All we know is that HoJo is moving on and Jerry Manuel is about as “safe” as Toyota gas pedal — though he’ll likely remain the manager for at least a few more days.

My guess is that the Mets are still trying to figure out the best way to break the news without upsetting fans of the ’86 Mets and David Wright, and waiting for the “right moment”. Or, maybe our sources are completely wrong.

Regardless of HoJo’s status, the Mets HAVE TO do something — they’ve forced themselves into making a change for the sake of change, at the very least.

*** UPDATE ***
Just got word that Jerry Manuel’s job IS safe for the time being. Though, the Mets have been on the fence before regarding Manuel, and could change their mind again at the drop of a hat.

HoJo is still the focus of whatever “change” is made, however.

Posted in Rumors | Tagged , | 7 Comments

Can the Mets Afford to NOT Make a Change?

Posted on July 26, 2010 by Joe Janish

According to MetsBlog and other sources, the Mets’ braintrust (and I use that term loosely) is in meetings all day today to discuss the matter of the team’s 2-9 road trip and all-around suckiness.

Additionally — and also reported in various places — Omar Minaya refused to provide any assurances that the current manager and coaching staff would remain intact for the short-term.

Considering that this information is public, can the Mets afford not to make a change of some sort? In other words, at this point, knowing what we know, and feeling how we feel about the team — that it is sinking quickly and could be irrelevant once the NFL begins workouts — would we as fans be OK with the Mets emerging today and doing nothing?

Maybe, just maybe, a blockbuster trade could provide a glimmer of hope (i.e., convince fans to buy tickets in August and September). Unfortunately, Dan Haren and Cliff Lee have been dealt, and Roy Oswalt is unlikely to accept a trade to a New York team not named the Yankees — though, Adam Rubin has said the Mets aren’t interested anyway. As a result, there appear to be no high-impact, well-known All-Stars available on the market. I doubt very highly that Mets fans would be placated by the acquisition of the likes of Kevin Millwood, Ted Lilly, Scott Downs, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, or any other so-so pitcher — particularly since the problem lately has been the hitting. Unfortunately for the Mets, no big bat appears to be available — unless you think the Nats would consider trading Adam Dunn to an NL East rival.

So, short of coaxing Barry Bonds out of retirement or raising Babe Ruth from the dead, the Mets will have to make some kind of internal change. The question is, will the change they make be enough to convince fans that the team is on the right track, and worth the (hefty) price of a ticket at Citi Field?

Share your opinion in the comments: what can the Mets do to change your view of the team’s chances in 2010? That is, if you think anything CAN be done to save the 2010 season.

Posted in Opinion and Analysis | Tagged , | 7 Comments

How the Mets Might Have Landed Dan Haren

Posted on July 26, 2010 by Matt Himelfarb

Yesterday, the Angels acquired Dan Haren from the Diamondbacks for southpaw Joe Saunders and three pitching prospects: Patrick Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, and Rafael Rodriguez.

The consensus, in a nutshell, is that the deal is reminiscent of a cross between the Dutch’s purchase of New York City from the Native Americans and the infamous Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano mind-boggler six years ago. In other words, to put it euphemistically, the Diamondbacks got the raw end of the stick here.

What would an equivalent trade with the Mets look like? Continue reading →

Posted in Stats, Trades | 9 Comments

Something is Cooking in Metsville

Posted on July 26, 2010 by Joe Janish

After going 2-9 on their Left Coast trip, the Mets are sinking fast in the standings. They are now 50-49, which may satisfy Omar Minaya’s goal of “being around .500”.

Further, the offense has sputtered and died like a 1974 Ford Pinto, getting shut out an incomprehensible 4 times in 10 days. That would be quite a feat if this were 1979, and the likes of Frank Taveras, Doug Flynn, and Bruce Boisclair were littering the lineup. But to be that anemic in the 21st century is … well, there are no words. Unfortunately for Howard Johnson, someone is going to have to be the scapegoat, and it’s unlikely to be the bullpen coach.

Whether it is HoJo or someone else, heads are guaranteed to roll in the next 24-48 hours. That’s an educated guess based on privately gathered inside information and the following public reports:

From tweets by Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger:

Omar: “When you have a trip like this, you have to sit down and assess how you’re going to get it right . . . We’re not going to sit back.”

Twice asked if staff would survive by Tuesday, Omar Minaya twice demurred from anything definitive.

From Andy Martino of the NY Daily News:

Minaya passed on two chances to say entire coaching staff would be intact Tuesday.

From Adam Rubin of ESPN-NY:

No one will say Howard Johnson’s job is safe

Omar would not directly state staff would remain intact Tuesday.

From David Lennon of NY Newsday:

Asked twice, Minaya would not say definitively that staff will remain intact on Tuesday when #Mets return to action.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize something is up, and that changes of some sort are coming soon — or sooner. Heck, even a two-bit blogger such as myself can figure that out.

What exactly will happen, no one is sure. HoJo’s job is unteneble right now, and though the pitching has been mostly strong lately, Dan Warthen could be blamed for Mike Pelfrey’s sudden slide. Dave Jauss could be in jeopardy for no other reason than the fact he’s Jerry Manuel’s pal (remember when Willie Randolph’s buddy Rick Down was fired?). Whether Manuel himself is spared the hatchet remains to be seen; Omar Minaya could have a tough time ‘splainin why he chose the wrong manager twice in five years. Indeed, one has to wonder if Minaya himself is on the chopping block.

We don’t know for sure what will occur in the next two days, but we can be sure that SOMETHING will happen.

Fasten your seatbelts …

Posted in Rumors | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments