2009 Analysis: Pedro Feliciano

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One of the few bright spots on a disappointing pitching staff, “Perpetual Pedro” set a New York Mets record for appearances with 88, and set career bests in WHIP (1.16), Holds (24), K:BB ratio (3.28), and Walks per 9 IP (2.7).

Manager Jerry Manuel used the 33-year-old lefthander whether he needed to or didn’t, nearly always in “matchup” situations against lefthanded hitters. Feliciano returned that trust by holding 156 lefthanded batters to a .215 batting average and .245 OBP; he struck out 41 of them and walked only 6 — though, he did give up 4 HRs to LH hitters.

Though he was pigeonholed as a LOOGY, Feliciano was passably effective against righthanded batters as well — they hit .264 against him, though with a .365 OBP and .486 SLG. If you pretend the 4 intentional walks to RHs didn’t happen, that OBP drops to a more manageable .329.

Considering his every-other-day use over the past two seasons, it’s hard to imagine a Mets bullpen without Pedro Feliciano. He is clearly a master at retiring lefthanded hitters, but one must wonder if he’d make more of a contribution as a “crossover” reliever — one who faces both lefties and righties. When given the chance to do so by Willie Randolph in 2007, Feliciano responded with a standout season — one in which he held 163 RH batters to a .221 batting average. In 2008, though, righties hit him to the tune of .357, prompting Manuel to make him a specialist.

It’s an interesting dilemma, and I personally wonder if Feliciano’s struggles against RH hitters under Manuel were due to a deficiency in his toolset or overuse. He pitched with no days’ rest 34 times in both 2008 and 2009, but only 23 times in 2007. There’s a possibility that if he were used more judiciously — optimizing a fine balance of sharpness and rest — Feliciano might have the ability to be a solid setup man. We may never know, because the current manager seems set in his thinking.

What do you think? If Pedro Feliciano were used for full innings at a time, but limited to, say, 10-12 games per month instead of 15-18, would he be more valuable to a bullpen? Or is his ability to get that one or two outs 85-90 times a year the best use of his talents?

Posted in 2009 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 2 Comments

2009 Analysis: Elmer Dessens

elmer-dessens-pitchElmer was the glue in the Mets bullpen down the stretch — if “stretch” is what you want to call the agonizing final two months of the season.

Though he didn’t join the club until late June, Dessens managed to find his way into 28 meaningless games, and posted an impressive 1.04 WHIP over 32.2 IP. If nothing else, the 38-year-old righthander from Mexico proved that he can still reach home plate from 60 feet, 6 inches away.

But what to take away from Elmer’s performance? Hard to say, since many of the games he entered were blowouts, and he rarely pitched under duress. Further, his surprisingly good numbers could have been due to the advantage of being “unknown”; although he’s been in MLB since 1996, he pitched in only 4 games last year for the Braves (3 vs. the Nationals, 1 vs. the Mets), 17 games in 2007, and 19 games in the NL in 2006. One must wonder how well he’d pitch after the scouting reports caught up with him (interestingly, one of his worst outings this year came against the Diamondbacks — the same team that lit him up for 7 runs in a 1.1 inning start in September of 2007).

What gives Dessens a ray of hope is the same set of circumstances that pushed him to the bigs in 2009: who else is there? Yes, he’ll be a 39-year-old journeyman with a sketchy past when spring training rolls around, but the Mets don’t have a plethora of pitchers banging down the door to the big leagues. The sheer lack of depth of MLB-ready pitchers of any talent level forces the Mets to consider any and all options. That said, it can’t hurt the Mets to offer Dessens a minor-league contract for 2010, and stick him in AAA. Buffalo will need a mopup man, and the spot can go either to him or a minor league free agent that is cut loose from another organization. Depending on who becomes available this winter, it may make sense to simply keep Dessens around — sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t. Scary, huh?

Posted in 2009 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 4 Comments

Deja Vu All Over Again

yogi-berraThis past Mets season was a failure, and the brass made several public appearances to apologize and explain it away, while also announcing the beginning of changes that were coming in the offseason.

Sound familiar?

As Yogi Berra said, “it’s deja vu all over again”.

Around this time last year, Jerry Manuel and his coaching staff were under evaluation. Click that link and read MetsToday’s take on the situation one year ago. In particular, note this comment:

By the way, Jerry Manuel has made a public statement regarding his goal to stress fundamentals with the ‘09 club.

If you dare, follow that link to the MLB.com article in which Manuel expounds on his plans for better fundamentals, “team over individual”, and “a more mature approach”.

The best-laid plans of mice and men …

And speaking of plans, you may want to go back to this post from October 23, 2008, which breaks down Jeff Wilpon’s interview with Mike Francesa. Feel free to compare and contrast to the most recent meeting between Wilpon and Francesa.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Posted in Shea What? | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Championship Puzzles: Transactional Leadership

I’m twisting the definition of “Transactional Leadership” for the purpose of a clever headline. For “part two” of what differentiates the Mets from championship teams, what we’re going to do here is briefly look at what the front offices of the current playoff teams have done in the past year, as opposed to what the New York Mets have used as a strategy in terms of acquiring ballplayers.

Around or after the July 31st trade deadline, the small-market Cardinals added Continue reading

Posted in 09-10 Offseason | 11 Comments

Difference Between Mets and Champions

After 162 Mets games, I forgot how much fun it was to watch good, hard-played, exciting baseball games. Right there, one of the key differences between the Mets of 2007-2009 and championship teams.

Not yet a week into the postseason, and we’ve already seen “championship baseball” at its best. How many times in the past three years have we seen similar passion and tenacity from the Flushing Futiles, as we’ve witnessed from the Twins and Dodgers? Even in losing, the Tigers put out a tremendous effort in what may go down as one of the most exciting one-game playoffs of all-time. Sure, you can say these teams are playing at a notch above because it’s the postseason — but are they “dialing it up” from their usual 9 to 10 or are they usually at 10 and breaking the knob to find 11?

Some other differences noted while watching these championship clubs:

Pitching

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John Lackey is the pitcher the Mets keep waiting for John Maine to be — not in terms of style, but in performance / results. In other words, the 7-8 inning pitcher, with occasional spurts of greatness, but otherwise a very solid #2 starter.

The difference between Lackey and Maine: Lackey has very simple, efficient, squared-up mechanics that keep him on a straight line from the rubber toward home plate, which are the foundation to strong command of all pitches. As a result Lackey can hit spots all over the strike zone with all of his pitches. In contrast, Maine’s mechanics cause him to constantly be fighting himself and his “natural”, narrow location of up and in the righthander / up and away from the lefty.

Lackey leads an Angel rotation that has Scott Kazmir and 16-win Joe Saunders rounding out the back end. Compare those two at the end to anyone after Johan Santana on the Mets’ starting staff.

The bullpens of nearly all the postseason teams are equally impressive. Consider that the Red Sox have at least four men in the ‘pen not named Papelbon who would be closing for at least a dozen MLB teams. The Yankees have so much pitching depth that they don’t really need Joba Chamberlain. The Phillies may have an issue with Brad Lidge as a closer but their depth is such that it’s hard to find postseason innings for Pedro Martinez, Joe Blanton, and Brett Myers.

Lineups and Hitting

The Red Sox had JD Drew batting eighth and Alex Gonzalez ninth. The Yankees had Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher in the same spots. The Cardinals had Mark DeRosa 7th and Colby Rasmus 8th. Think about that. Any of those hitters would be batting cleanup for the Mets. That’s the difference between the Mets and a playoff team’s lineup.

Free Agent Signings

Bobby Abreu had some kind of year, huh? A .390 OBP, .293 AVG, 103 RBI, 30 SBs. This is the same guy who was practically begging the Mets for a contract. But the Mets were “set” in the outfield — they had Dan Murphy, Ryan Church, and Fernando Tatis. It was ironic that the Angels had a much deeper surplus of OFs than the Mets (Gary Mathews Jr., Reggie Willits, and Juan Rivera were all presumably fighting for one corner spot), yet they signed Abreu anyway — his bargain price of $5M was too good to pass up (rumor at the time was the Mets could’ve had him for $4M).

Managerial Boldness

Joe Torre has benched All-Star, Gold-Glove second baseman Orlando Hudson in favor of Ronny Belliard — mainly because Belliard is hot and Hudson is not. Can you see a Mets manager pulling a similar move in the playoffs? For example, if Jose Reyes were hitting .200 going into a playoff series, do you think Jerry Manuel would dare sit him in favor of a shortstop who was on a hot streak?

Conclusion

Watching these games a Mets fan, it’s hard not to think about your team and compare / contrast it to the teams still playing. There’s another big difference I’ll detail in a future post.

Posted in 09-10 Offseason | Tagged , , , , , | 7 Comments

The Big Fix and the General Consensus

After an encouraging, 83-79 season and third-place finish in 2005, the Mets appeared to be just one or two pieces away from a playoff run. The general consensus was that the Mets might have won more games had someone other than Braden Looper been the closer. Thus, “the fix for 2006” would be Billy Wagner.

As you remember, the Mets came within one game from making it to the World Series in 2006. With Cliff Floyd aging and injury prone, the general consensus was that they needed just one clutch bat — a “professional hitter” — to take over in left field. Thus, the “fix for 2007” would be Moises Alou.

The greatest collapse in the history of baseball kept the Mets out of the 2007 postseason. When the dust settled, it was determined (by the general consensu) that the Mets needed an “ace” pitcher, or “stopper” — one who would prevent losing streaks. Thus, “the fix for 2008” would be Johan Santana.

Yet another collapse kept the Mets from making the 2008 playoffs. All fingers pointed to the personnel in the bullpen — the general consensus was that the Mets needed a bullpen makeover. Thus, “the fix for 2009” would be Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.

So here we are at the end of the 2009 season and again the Mets are not playing meaningful games in October. The general consensus is that injuries were the reason. Thus, “the fix for 2010” is …. to be healthy?

Yes … and no. While in the past there was “only one piece missing”, or “one issue to address” (according to the general consensus), today there are several:

– a #2 starter
– a power-hitting left fielder
– a Major League caliber catcher
– a power-hitting first baseman
– a return to health for Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and the rest of the cavalry

Yes, some will argue that Omir Santos can be the #1 catcher and Daniel Murphy the first baseman. But I’m going with the low-level general consensus — the one that has driven the Mets’ offseason strategy for the past several years. And the “general consensus” believes the Mets need to fill those positions with new personnel.

Going from “one” issue to three or five is a big difference. And as we’ve seen in the past, addressing that “one” issue wasn’t enough to propel the Mets to the postseason — mainly because it was MORE than the “one” problem that the general consensus identified.

Which makes one wonder — is it really only these three, four, or five issues that need to be addressed? Of course not. Beyond the above generalities suggested by the mainstream, the Mets also still have a big problem with their bullpen (both the personnel and the management of it); there’s the issue of David Wright’s power shortage; many question the team’s overall mental approach / intestinal fortitude; the team needs to improve its fundamentals and execution; and the starting rotation is riddled with question marks –including Johan Santana, who is coming off elbow surgery and therefore no sure thing.

In the past, the Mets failed to build a championship team despite needing “only one or two pieces to complete the puzzle”. But this time around we should expect them to fill multiple holes and deliver a postseason appearance? That might be somewhere between wishful thinking and fantasy land.

Posted in Hot Stove | 6 Comments

Mets Shopping for Halladay?

roy-halladay

The New York Times is reporting that the Mets may go after Roy Halladay, if in fact the Toronto Blue Jays make him available this winter.

As MetsBlog notes, the fact the Mets have little in the way of near-ready prospects in their farm system may not matter, since few teams will be able to handle the financial commitment that is required to keep Halladay away from free agency. In other words, it could be another Johan Santana situation — whereby the Mets acquired the star lefthander more because the deep-pocketed Yankees and Red Sox walked away from the table rather than because the Mets had the best package of players.

If indeed the Mets make a pitch for Halladay, and pull of a Santana-like trade-and-sign deal that totals over a hundred million dollars, it will be another case of the Mets using their same old shortsighted, knee-jerk strategy of “building a winner”.

Getting Halladay would be great, no question (as Jerry Manuel likes to say). But it’s just another band-aid that will send the Mets backward over the long term.

The Mets had the opportunity to obtain one of the top three pitchers in MLB last winter — and would not have had to give up a single player. We discussed right here on MetsToday last November that the Mets should go after C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia wound up signing a 7-year, $161M contract — about the same deal that Halladay is likely to get. The big difference, however, is that Sabathia was only 27 when he began that contract, and Halladay will be 33.

Maybe they would have not have been able to top the Yankees (even though Sabathia preferred the NL), but that’s not the point — the point is that the Mets never even sniffed Sabathia’s way. They were completely satisfied to bring back another young lefthander at a much cheaper cost, and to rest on the laurels of the “big splash” they made in the bullpen (signing K-Rod, trading for Putz).

Last winter the general consensus was that the Mets needed to fix the bullpen. The PR message built was, “address the bullpen problem, and the Mets will go to the World Series”. So once they signed Frankie Fantastik and obtained J.J. Putz, there was every reason to buy season tickets.

In the end, they overspent on K-Rod, overspent on Oliver Perez, and both overspent and over-traded for J.J. Putz — a total expenditure of $96M and 7 players for band-aids to stop the bleeding. By spending all that dough and emptying their farm system, you couldn’t say they weren’t trying — and it’s now easy for them to look back and say “hey, we did what we had to do, we fixed the bullpen”.

Fast-forward one year and the Mets have new wounds opening … with more band-aids on the way.

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Twins Win !

gomez-keppelFor the first time since I can remember, I enjoyed watching a baseball game on TV that included color commentary by Ron Darling.

Congrats to the Twins for winning the AL Central, and thanks to both the Twins and the Tigers for treating America to an event that defined the beauty of baseball.

Mets fans may note that Carlos Gomez scored the winning run — you can see him in the picture to the left, being congratulated by the winning pitcher Bobby Keppel.

How ironic (fitting?) that both players began their careers in the New York Mets organization!

Posted in Latest Mets News | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments