The Fantasy 3-Way Deal: No Gio for Metsies

Posted on December 18, 2011 by Kyle Schnitzer

Amid these new rumors circulating around New York Mets and Oakland A’s left-handed starter Gio Gonzalez; I have cultivated a 3-way trade proposal.

Thursday night, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Mets are in on the 25-year-old left-hander. Along with the Mets, the Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins (they should just go away now), Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, and the Texas Rangers all have interest in the southpaw.

So it comes as a surprise that the Mets are even talking to any teams at this point; let alone going after a high-profile lefthander.

But my judgment says the Mets are nothing going strictly for Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez would be a nice fit in a rotation but he’s a now pitcher. The Mets aren’t a “now” team. They are a later team. I think everyone has come to terms that the Mets will not be competitive for a few years.

So here’s a 3-way trade scenario I made up. This involves the Toronto Blue Jays (Note: I am not a general manager, nor am I a business major. I know if Blue Jay fans read this they’ll go after my neck but I felt that this is how this deal gets done.):

 

In this trade, the Blue Jays receive an already proven pitcher. In the American League East, you need solid pitching. We already know that the Blue Jays won the bidding rights for Japanese stud Yu Darvish. However, the Jays lack left-handed starters (and effective ones). If you put Rickey Romero and Gonzalez in a rotation with Darvish*, Brandon Morrow, and the 5th spot being up for grabs; you have a rotation that is ready to compete. The Blue Jays are a now team. GM Alex Anthopoulos has shown he is ready to make the steps to the next level. The Jays recently switched their logos to the old Blue Jay, with future star Brett Lawrie saying, “I feel that this year is our year” (Can’t find the video…grr..really cool video though). The Blue Jays believe they can compete and with the acquisitions of Darvish* and Gonzalez, they would be a force to reckon with, including with the new wild card system.

From the Oakland A’s perspective, Billy Beane has made it known: he wants prospects (like usual). The A’s receive an already proven young left-handed pitcher, Jon Niese, who is under club control for another four years. That’s four years for A’s to ponder what they want to do with Niese. Niese can blossom into the pitcher we want to see. Maybe he’ll find himself somewhere else?

Rumor has it that the A’s want a “future third-basemen”. Slot in Wilmer Flores. When you think future, you think of 2 years (even though I don’t know if the A’s will ever be competitive again). Wilmer Flores is not going to play in New York. While many are still hyping him up, he just has not performed well enough for me to remain drooling over. He is expendable, in my opinion. Now you throw in an MLB-ready talent like right-handed pitcher Henderson Alvarez, you might have a deal. Alvarez dazzled as a 21-year-old in AA, posting a 2.86 ERA with am 1.11 WHIP. He was called up in August by the Jays and went 1-3 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 starts.

Finally, the Mets haul. The Mets would receive another left-handed pitcher in Brett Cecil. A former first-round selection out of Maryland, Cecil has pitched well in the AL East. While his numbers aren’t exactly standout numbers, Cecil sits in a low to mid 90s. He has a somewhat lazy delivery but gets some nice bit off his fastball. In 2010, he had a 2.6 WAR, however it dropped to 0.4 in 2011, mainly because he was wild. I’ve always been a fan of Cecil ever since he was drafted. I felt the Jays rushed him a bit but he’s starting to find himself. I feel that his biggest weakness is pitching in the American League East and a change of scenery would be best for him.

And here’s where the deal gets sweet. The Mets would receive Blue Jays prized prospect Travis d’Arnaud. d’Arnaud was originally drafted in 2007 by the Philadelphia Phillies. How sweet would it be to have him as the Mets back stop for years to come?

Rated the 36th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, d’Arnaud did not disappoint in 2011. The 22-year-old hit .311 with 21 home runs and 78 runs batted in at Double-A New Hampshire. The only concerns are over his glove and if he can make the step to being an all around catcher (aka: Matt Wieters). But still, he’s a catcher of the future. Not Josh Thole. And by a catcher of the future, think a REALLY, REALLY, REALLY good catcher!

The Mets also receive a pitcher! A possible clone of Jon Niese in Griffin Murphy. The Jays draftEd High-school heavy in the past two drafts, which is why some guys get lost in their system, like Murphy. Murphy was selected in the 2nd round in 2010 and pitched so-so in Rookie League. He walked 16 in 41 innings. He has to have more control since he really isn’t a power lefty. His frame (6’3″ 200) is intriguing because if he could fill it out, say gain another 15 pounds, he might get the velocity that is missing. Clearly, I used him in this proposal as a throw in player. Sure you could pray for a Justin Nicolino or a Deck McGuire, but the Jays are parting with d’Arnaud and Alvarez.

So tell me, what would you give up for Jon Niese? If you were GM Sandy Alderson, would you entertain this offer? Is it too much? Or just right?

Posted in 11-12 Offseason, Opinion and Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Non-Tenders to Consider

Posted on December 14, 2011 by Joe Janish

This year, the pickings are slim from the “second release” of free agents — i.e., those who were non-tendered on Sunday night.

I only see a few men worth kicking the tires on for the New York Mets:

Jason Jaramillo
A switch-hitting catcher who hits with equal mediocrity from both sides of the plate. However, his defense is above-average, particularly with his ability to throw runners out. Not someone to get terribly excited about, but definitely worth mulling over considering that the Mets catching depth consists of Josh Thole, Mike Nickeas, and nothing else.

Jeff Keppinger
His offense dropped off last year, and that’s his main value — other than the emotional tie of him being a former Met.

Jeremy Hermida
I don’t know why, but I have an obsession with this guy’s natural talent. He’ll be 28 by spring training, and at this point, it doesn’t appear he’ll be anywhere near the player he looked like he might become during his promising 2007 season as a 23-year-old. What the heck happened with him?

Luke Scott
Might be fun to see Scott platoon with Jason Bay. It won’t happen.

Ryan Theriot
A rich man’s Joe McEwing, Theriot likely projects to be a better all-around second baseman than Dan Murphy or Justin Turner. But, it seems that the Mets will try to inJ.R. Murphy at 2B again.

Micah Owings, Jo-Jo Reyes, Joe Saunders, Andy Sonnanstine
We looked at these pitchers in today’s earlier post on starting pitchers.

Peter Moylan
Can’t ever have enough bullpen depth.

Rich Hill
See Moylan, above. Hill is coming off of arm surgery but is expected to be back in action by April/May. He has potential as a LOOGY.

Thoughts? Did I miss anyone?

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | 10 Comments

Are We Even Worse Off Than We Thought?

Posted on December 14, 2011 by Dan Capwell

Last summer, while Jose Reyes was running away with the NL batting crown, I envisioned a fierce bidding war for his services developing over the winter. The way I figured it, there had to be at least a dozen teams lining up to throw money and years at him. After all, he is the total package, right? He has the speed, the energy, plays a premium position, has some pop in his bat and is on the right side of age 30. What team wouldn’t want him?

Well, we found out: there were 28 teams not interested enough to make contact with his agent and only one that made an offer. Reyes ended up signing with his only suitor, the Miami Marlins. And they got him for a contract that only two years ago would have seemed like a bargain.

There is an old saying about familiarity breeding contempt. After watching Jose’s entire career with the Mets, I was hesitant about seeing him get a long-term deal. Too many injuries! And for a team like the Mets with a long history of regrettable contracts, I felt that a multi-year deal was another ticking time bomb. FWIW, I think the Marlins will regret three, possibly four years of the deal. I favored dealing Reyes last July, but that’s another topic.

So, I watched and waited in hopeful anticipation during last week’s winter meetings. I was cheered by Sandy Alderson’s comments about listening to offers on everyone on the roster. That’s good. After three consecutive sub-.500 seasons, no one should be untouchable. A nice prospect or two, like what they got from the Giants for Carlos Beltran last July would certainly jump start the rebuilding process. What isn’t so good is the types of offers they reportedly received for what should be their prime trading chips, a.k.a the contract-friendly, major league ready starters currently wearing a Met uniform.

For example:

• Daniel Murphy: Hit .320 last year and was 5th in the NL when he sustained a season-ending injury. Alderson praised his leadership ability. So here come the LA Dodgers with an offer of Tony Gywnn Jr. Tony Gwynn Jr.? He of the .660 OPS? On his third team in the past three years? Two years older than Murphy and nearly twice as expensive? WTF?

• Ike Davis: Accordingly the Pirates, yes the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team that hasn’t won anything in 20 years, came calling, offering AA outfielder Sterling Marte and AAA pitcher Brad Lincoln. The latter is not a prospect: he projects at best as a 4/5 starter. Marte has some appeal, but he is at least two years away. Isn’t Davis supposed to carry a gold glove and have the potential to hit 30 homers?

• Jon Niese: I thought that left handed starting pitchers under team control for the next several years are just about the most prized commodity in baseball. So we hear the Mets are “listening” to offers on Jon. One would expect a long line of suitors. Nope. In fact one of those interested teams was the San Diego Padres. Then they hire Omar Minaya and they suddenly aren’t interested any more. Coincidence? Didn’t Minaya draft this guy? (Rhetorical question).

• Bobby Parnell: Like Niese, Bobby is young and under team control for the next several years. Although not a southpaw, he does have that triple-digit speed fastball. He is also available. There aren’t even any good rumors out there about a deal for him.

So adding it all up leads to an unpleasant conclusion: the Mets are what their record says they are, which is a bad team with a roster full of players that most teams don’t have more than a passing interest in. The slow market for Reyes and the lack of interest in players from last year’s roster certainly indicates that. Perhaps the next coming weeks will reveal better news, but given the circumstances right now we are getting a good indication of what the market thinks about current Mets. Between this and the latest revelation on the Wilponzi’s finances, we may be on the precipice of a long dark age.

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Blog Roundup: Christmas in Metsville

Posted on December 14, 2011 by Paul Festa

The Mets held their annual Christmas get-together at Citi Field, Bud Selig gave the Mets an early gift, and Ronny Paulino got coal in his stocking.  Daniel Murphy managed to avoid injury while playing Santa, and Fred and Jeff Wilpon were great as the Grinch and his dog – and they didn’t even wear costumes!

And the Blogs are spreading some cheer:

  • Mets Police has some pics from the holiday party, and was live-tweeting the event on-location from Citi.
  • Always Amazin’proposes Hong-Chi Kuo as the man to add some left-handed depth to the Mets’ bullpen.
  • Mets Cetera has the transcript from a revealing interview with Sandy Alderson.
  • Patrick Flood goes through the Mets tender/non-tender moves, and suggests further moves for 2012.
  • Amazin’ Avenue thinks Commissioner Bud Selig has been too soft on the Wilpons.
  • 7 Train to Shea was at the winter meetings, and saw Jose Reyes in a Marlins uniform firsthand.  7 Train to Shea’s therapist rejoices.

The holiday season has just begun, and Mets Today is the gift that keeps on giving.

Posted in 11-12 Offseason, Around the Blogs | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Mets Need Starting Pitching Depth

Posted on December 14, 2011 by Joe Janish

We looked at the projected Mets lineup, now let’s look at the projected starting rotation. In no particular order:

1. R.A. Dickey
2. Jonathon Niese
3. Mike Pelfrey
4. Dillon Gee
5. ?

There are two problems to address. First, who is the #5 starter? Who is competing for that role? Continue reading →

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | 14 Comments

The Real Reason Mets Never Made Offer to Jose Reyes

Posted on December 13, 2011 by Joe Janish

Yesterday The New York Times reported that Bank of America recently loaned the Mets $40M:

The team described the arrangement as a bridge loan, meant to aid the team as it tries to raise money through the sale of minority stakes in the club.

Clearly, Mets ownership continues to suffer serious financial problems, which explains why they didn’t ever make an official offer to Jose Reyes. Of course, you are free to keep telling yourself that Sandy Alderson passed on the star shortstop because it wouldn’t have been a good baseball decision. Whatever floats your boat — but the bottom line is, this Flushing franchise is going down the toilet. Continue reading →

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | 20 Comments

It’s All About the Money

Posted on December 13, 2011 by Joe Janish

This was a comment posted yesterday by loyal MetsToday reader “Rob”:

In the last week we’ve been subjected to press conferences where free agent player (Reyes, Pujols, Wilson) thanks his fans for their years of following, tells them that it was the hardest decision in the world to leave the only team they’ve ever known, and observes that the deal offered by the signing team showed too much love to pass up…so sayonara and god bless. We’ve also heard from the team GM’s that losing the player was “just business,” recognizing that the game is really just a business and nothing more. This got me to thinking. We as fans become emotionally invested in the game of pro baseball, primarily at the behest of the team and the players. The team tries to get us to buy season tickets and player jerseys, promotes the club by enticing fans to come out and see “Player X or Player Y” and generally tries to invoke an emotional devotion to the club. The players do the same thing…they sell their jerseys, give away their autographs and strive to become a household name with each of their fans because fan love equates to selling tickets. Yes…production matters, but let’s assume that the players that become household names are the players who invoke the most fan affection.

This goes on for so long as the players are under contract. Come and see us, they say…root for us…wear our jersey and show us the love, they say.

Then comes contract negotiation time and all of a sudden, the fan love and devotion that every team and every great player has promoted for all those years goes right out the window in favor of the “it’s just business” excuse. It’s just business that Reyes signed with the Marlins and dissed his fans for a few million more; it’s just business that the Mets didn’t try to sign him to a larger contract; it’s just business that Pujols left St. Louis, the only place he’s ever known…where fans have treated him like a god among men…for the sake of tens of millions of dollars more than the hundreds of millions of dollars that he would have made had he stayed; it’s just business that St. Louis didn’t show him more love by paying him a few million more per year.

The fans are asked to become emotionally invested in every great player that a team develops…then those same fans are asked to just sit helplessly by while everyone ignores the emotional investment and just factors in the money…because that’s what the game is all about today…the money. But that’s not what’s they say it’s all about when they’re getting us to buy the tickets and the caps and the jerseys and the pictures…its about the love.

So what can I conclude about this game today? It’s a sham. It’s a fraud on all of the millions of fans who have been induced to fall in love with their favorite players on their favorite team, hoping that they’ll stay together for the lifetime of that player’s career…only to be told at the height of that career that it’s just business when that player bolts for another higher-paying team.

How does this fit into this discuss? Does anyone believe after the events of the last week that any of these teams give two shakes of a lambs tail about what the fans think? Does anyone think that they care at all about the time and money that each fan has emotionally invested in the team? Does anyone think that anyone factors any of that into their “negotiations” and deliberations? I don’t think so. And where winning comes into that equation? That’s open for debate. I’d argue that the emotional investment is there because the fan wants to see his team win. If the owner is unwilling to spend money on the favorite player, he’s ignoring the fans emotions and by the same token doesn’t care about winning…because it’s just business.

I’m thinking long and hard over this offseason as to whether I’m a pro baseball fan anymore. I can’t invest that kind of emotion and love in a team and its players if they’re just going to let the players go like it doesn’t matter to us…because it does. And maybe they’ll never recognize that…and maybe I’m just naive. But I thought baseball was supposed to be more than just about the money.

Thoughts?

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | 5 Comments

Will Jesus Flores Return?

Posted on December 13, 2011 by Joe Janish

Several years ago, many Mets fans berated the team’s front office, and Omar Minaya in particular, for allowing the Washington Nationals to steal hotshot backstop prospect Jesus Flores via the Rule 5 Draft.

At the time, Flores was a 22-year-old coming off a 21-HR, .268 AVG, .822 OPS campaign for Port St. Lucie in high-A ball. As difficult it was to see Flores snatched, an objective eye would not be nearly as harsh in criticizing the Mets for losing him as we Mets fans — because seriously, how many MLB teams are willing to keep a 22-year-old A-ball catcher on their 25-man roster for an entire season?

As it turned out, Flores struggled with injuries throughout his career in the Nats organization; the 106 games he appeared in between MLB and AAA in 2008 were the most he ever played in one season. In short, his skill set was stunted, and Flores never truly had the opportunity to hone and develop into a bona fide MLB catcher.

There was a possibility that the Nats would non-tender Flores, but they chose to sign him only hours before tonight’s deadline. However, just because they signed him doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll keep him. After all, the Nats already have Wilson Ramos slated to be the starting backstop, and they have two very capable youngsters — Jhonatan Solano and Derek Norris — waiting in the wings. The Nats likely kept Flores not because they need him, but because they realize catchers of any ability are highly prized assets right now; they likely can trade him for something of value.

What do you think? Should the Mets make a play for the now 27-year-old Flores? Why or why not?

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | Tagged , | 11 Comments