Spilled Milk: Mark Langston and Two Throw-Ins

Posted on November 4, 2011 by Dan Capwell

Author’s Note: We interrupt the Spilled Milk Series to focus on a story that many of the current fans may have either forgotten or don’t know about. It’s the story of how the Mets missed their chance to extend their great mid- to late-80s run. As a courtesy to our readers and to help protect your valuable keyboard, monitor, or smart phone, The Mets Today staff will notify you when the “spit take” part of this article arrives. Next week, we’ll look at other big deals from the post-1986 era that didn’t happen.

Two events signaled the end of the Mets 1984-1990 winning streak. One is obvious and occurred in the 9th inning of Game Four of the 1988 NLDS. To paraphrase Casey Stengel: you can look that one up. The other occurred about five months later and while somewhat less dramatic than the events of that terrible October evening, had an equally devastating impact on the team’s immediate and long-term future. Continue reading →

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | Tagged , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

The Pros and Cons of Grady Sizemore

Posted on November 3, 2011 by Paul Festa

Is Sizemore worth the risk?

Despite their reportedly limited budget, the Mets will not be completely inactive in the free agent market this offseason.  Whether or not they re-sign Jose Reyes, the Mets will have needs to fill.  And while it seems they don’t have the kind of money to be competitive in the Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder sweepstakes, there are bargains to be had.  As with most bargains, however, caveat emptor applies.

Once such bargain is Grady Sizemore.  The 2-time Gold Glove winner became a free agent after the Indians declined his $9MM option for 2012.  Sizemore is beloved in Cleveland, and has been one of the game’s best all-around outfielders since his first full season in 2005.  His 162 game averages are 39 2B, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 24 SB, and an .830 OPS.  And, he’s only 29 years old.  So why did Cleveland decline his option?

Over the past three years, he’s lost 276 games to injury, and has undergone 5 surgeries.

Sizemore, who made $7.7MM last year, played in only 71 games for the Indians.  As a result, he can be had at a bargain price, and if he stays healthy, he will produce on the baseball field.  Wait…that last sentence sounds familiar.  Oh right, I think I read that about Moises Alou, Chris Young, Pedro Martinez, J.J. Putz, Gary Sheffield, and other recent Mets acquisitions.  Do the Mets really need to take another chance on yet another broken down ballplayer?

While in past years, the chances they took were based on poor decision making, this year, they may not have a choice, given their financial situation.  A healthy Sizemore could upgrade their defense in center field, or even right field, if the Mets lose faith in Lucas Duda, and fill the spot at the top of the order if Reyes leaves.

The Mets have an existing option for both of those roles: Angel Pagan.  After an encouraging 2010, Pagan had a rough year all around, highlighted by mental mistakes in the field and on the bases.  But despite some nagging injuries, he has given the Mets over 1,100 plate appearances over the past two seasons.  He will likely win approximately $5MM in arbitration this year, should the Mets choose to grant it.

The general feeling is any current outfield prospect (i.e. Kirk Niewenhuis) in the organization will not be ready for prime time when Spring Training rolls around.  And there are other free agent options, such as Cody Ross and Nate McLouth, but neither of them have the production potential of Sizemore.

If it doesn’t break the bank, it’s worth signing Sizemore – he has enough upside to justify the risk.  In addition, the Mets probably won’t have to pay much more for him than they would pay Pagan.  But they’d better have a backup plan in place in case the risk doesn’t result in reward.

 

Posted in 11-12 Offseason, Hot Stove | Tagged , , | 11 Comments

2011 Analysis: Danny Herrera

Posted on November 3, 2011 by Joe Janish

Diminutive Danny Herrera became the shortest pitcher in Mets history when he climbed up to the rubber in Washington, D.C. (without the help of a step ladder) on September 2nd. Amidst the catcalls of “hey, somebody left a hat on the mound” and “where’s the rest of the pitcher?”, little Danny began his Mets career auspiciously, retiring 17 of the first 18 batters he faced.

Eventually, though, Herrera did allow baserunners – too many, in fact, as 8 of the last 15 batters he faced reached base. Herrera displayed a plethora of pitches, including the rare and ancient pitch known as the screwball, all delivered at random speeds. He changed speeds well, and when he was able to keep pitches down he was effective. However, he ran into trouble when his offerings floated higher in the strike zone and caught too much of the middle of the plate. Without much velocity and lacking a vicious breaking pitch, Herrera is more reliant on pristine command than most other MLB pitchers, which can be a volatile factor for the small sample sizes that a LOOGY faces. That’s really the difficulty in shoehorning him into such a role; as a specialist, his job is to get one batter, usually in a tight situation, and if he’s not “on”, the results could be disastrous.

Statistically speaking, the 2011 sample size was too small to create any kind of fair evaluation. As for what my eyes saw, it’s equally difficult because, similarly, I didn’t see enough of him to get a gauge on his strengths and weaknesses.

2012 Projection

Danny Herrera should get an opportunity to win a bullpen spot next spring. Personally, I don’t know that the LOOGY role is best suited unless he can either find consistent command or take one of his breaking pitches to a new level. I’d rather see him in a middle or long-relief role, where he can start innings with the bases empty, and have room for error. As recently as 2009, he appeared in 70 games for the Reds and posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 61 IP, facing 266 batters — which is a pretty decent sample size for a reliever. Although I don’t know enough about the situations he entered in ’09, it does suggest that Herrera might be a valuable asset in a MLB bullpen. Though, he could also have benefited from being unknown at the time (it was his rookie year); I believe the mystery factor is significant and underrated in regard to relievers. At this point, I don’t know if he can be mysterious again — or if he can adjust to batters who adjust to him. There’s only one way to find out, and at this moment the Mets don’t have many LOOGY options beyond Herrera and Tim Byrdak.

Posted in 11-12 Offseason, 2011 Mets Evaluations | Tagged , | 1 Comment

2011 Analysis: Dillon Gee

Posted on November 2, 2011 by Joe Janish

At the beginning of the spring, not much was expected of Dillon Gee. Yet by the end of summer, it could be argued that Gee was a disappointment. Continue reading →

Posted in 2011 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 5 Comments

2011 Analysis: R.A. Dickey

Posted on November 1, 2011 by Joe Janish

In the winter between 2009 and 2010, Omar Minaya pulled R.A. Dickey off the scrap heap. I made fun of the signing at the time. Much to my — and most others’ — surprise, Dickey got the last laugh, coming out of nowhere to put together a rags-to-riches story of success that seemed more like a Disney movie than reality.

After finishing 2010 as the Mets’ ace, the question for 2011 was, pardon the pun … “can Dickey keep it up?”

While R.A. might not have been as effective in 2011 as he was the season before, his carriage most certainly did not turn into a pumpkin. He regressed from a #1 / #2 starter to more of a middle-of-the-rotation guy, which is still pretty impressive for a 36-year-old whose career seemed to be over a year and a half ago. Dickey made 32 starts and pitched 208 innings, posting a svelte 3.28 ERA and a nifty 1.22 WHIP. He regularly pitched into the seventh inning, and sometimes beyond. While he wasn’t necessarily an “ace”, he gave the Mets a solid chance to win nearly every time he took the mound, and held that opportunity deep into ballgames. He was usually the victim of marginal run support, and as a result was a hard-luck loser more often than not. Remarkably, he did this despite pitching with plantar fasciitis for the majority of the campaign.r On a better offensive team, Dickey might have won 14-16 games, but on the Mets, he was a disappointing and undeserving 8-13.

2012 Projection

At this point I believe we have seen R.A. at his best and his worst, and I believe we now have a reasonable expectation: that he is a durable innings-eater who is good enough to be a #3 starter on a championship team. Considering that he’s a knuckleball pitcher, therefore presumably impervious to the drop in performance that other pitchers his age succumb to, I fully expect R.A. to remain at that #3-type of level. It took him several years to develop command of the knuckleball (or at least, as close as one can get to “commanding” the pitch), and my feeling is that he’ll continue to improve and perfect the pitch. Pencil him in for another 30+ starts, 200 innings, and the kind of performance that would net him 12-15 wins on a good baseball team.

2010 Evaluation of R.A. Dickey

Posted in 11-12 Offseason, 2011 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 1 Comment

Blog Roundup: The Walls of Flushing

Posted on November 1, 2011 by Paul Festa

On Monday, the Mets announced their long-anticipated modifications to the dimensions of Citi Field.  Among the changes: Blue walls, the demise of the Great Wall of Flushing, a nice outdoor seating area for the Mo’s Zone (which conveniently shortens the outfield wall).

Not changing-The Blogs:

  • Metsblog has official pictures and a video of what the new fences will look like.
  • Amazin’ Avenue factors in Citi Field’s new dimensions on David Wright’s spray chart.  The results may surprise you.
  • Metsmerized isn’t BLUE at all about the changes.
  • Mack’s Mets profiles prospect Juan Carlos Gamboa.
  • Adam Rubin gets information on the sale to minority shareholders from Jeff Wilpon.
  • Faith and Fear says Tony La Russa was the last active manager who managed Tom Seaver.

So, expect more home runs at Citi, and more Mets news from Mets Today.

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Fences Come In, Reyes Goes Out?

Posted on November 1, 2011 by Joe Janish

You may already have heard that the Citi Field fences are moving in — significantly. There are many reasons behind this decision, and I wonder if one of them is a preemptive strike guarding against the departure of Jose Reyes? Continue reading →

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | Tagged , , , | 29 Comments

2011 Analysis: D.J. Carrasco

Posted on October 31, 2011 by Joe Janish

After being non-tendered by his previous clubs two years in a row, D.J. Carrasco signed the first multi-year contract of his life last winter — a two-year, $2.4M deal with the Mets that included another $150K in performance bonuses. At the time, it was seen as a prudent move by the new Mets front office, in that it was an inexpensive contract for someone who was seen as a reliable, above-average middle reliever. Additionally, there was talk of Carrasco providing additional value as a spot starter.

As it turned out, Carrasco failed as a reliever and in his one and only start at the big-league level. He spent part of the year in AAA Buffalo in an effort to regain his stuff. At times, Carrasco was effective, but for the most part he was middling at best, and overall underwhelming. By August, he was all but a lost cause, and transformed himself into exclusively a submarine pitcher in a desperate attempt to become relevant again. Unfortunately, the experiment failed miserably, and by the end of the season he was nothing more than a mop-up reliever.

2012 Projection

It’s hard to imagine where D.J. Carrasco fits into the Mets’ plans next year. The submarine experiment was successful in proving he is not a submariner. He delivers the ball from several different angles, but inadequately from all of them. The Mets owe him another year and $1.4M, and that’s enough reason to keep him at the AAA level for depth and to hold out hope that he’ll figure out something that can be used in MLB again. To me it makes sense to plan the 2012 pitching staff without him, and if Carrasco can provide something, it will be a pleasant surprise.

Posted in 2011 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 2 Comments