2011 Analysis: Chris Capuano

Way back in 2008, I wondered if the Mets would consider Chris Capuano as a “low-risk” free-agent pickup. I wondered the same thing in 2009. Luckily, the Mets didn’t sign him either time, since he was still going through the rehabilitation process following Tommy John surgery. But, the third time I brought him up was a charm, as “Cappy” turned out to be a solid, reliable starter — and, he lived up to my preseason prediction:

Personally, I think Capuano is a safe bet to be better than Jeff Francis or Chris Young in 2011; you heard it here first.

Chris Capuano started strong, peaked in July, then Continue reading

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Three Reasons Not To Re-Sign Jose Reyes

There are three good reasons the Mets should not re-sign Jose Reyes: Continue reading

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | Tagged , , , , , , | 44 Comments

Blog Roundup: Friday Edition

The season rolls on for one more game after a classic World Series game.  In the meantime, Mets news never stops, just like the game of baseball itself.

Blog on:

  • Daily Stache wonders where all that time went since 1986, and does that make those of us who remember it old-timers?
  • 7 Train to Shea thinks the Mets should make a run at Joe Nathan.
  • Metsmerized says the Yankees are interested in signing ex-Met Carlos Beltran.
  • Mets Police has a newspaper clipping from 1986, in which the Boss (And we’re not talking about Bruce) compliments the Mets.
  • Mets 360 ponders Heath Bell as an option for the Mets in 2012.
  • Real Dirty Mets tries to make sense of all the trade rumors surrounding David Wright.

Happy Friday, and keep checking out Mets Today.

Posted in Around the Blogs | Tagged | 1 Comment

This is 1982

Alderson, DePodesta, and Ricciardi will try to match this triumverate's success.

Today is the 25th anniversary of Game 7 of the 1986 World Series.  It was a game the Mets would win to cement their second (and last) World Series title.

The roster of the 1986 team was the result of shrewd draft choices, key trades, and a top minor league system that helped the Mets rebuild from the abysmal 70s teams, to a perennial contender from 1984-1990.

There are some similarities between the organization in the early 80s and today’s Mets franchise.  A new General Manager has taken over a mediocre club, with a thin farm system and sparse financial breathing room.  Sandy Alderson may not have inherited a team as awful as the one Frank Cashen took over, but it always feels like the 21st-Century Mets are teetering on the edge of a 100-loss season.  Alderson will have to build his Mets similar to how Cashen built the eventual ’86 champions.

Cashen and the Mets made little use of major league free agency.  George Foster was a notable exception, and was largely a disappoinment. (Correction – Foster was also acquired via trade – PJF) The 1986 team was made up mostly of draft choices and trades:

Key Draft Choices:

  • RHP Rick Aguilera
  • 2B Wally Backman
  • OF Lenny Dykstra
  • RHP Dwight Gooden
  • RHP Roger McDowell
  • OF-IF Kevin Mitchell
  • OF Darryl Strawberry
  • OF Mookie Wilson

Key Trades:

  • C Gary Carter
  • 1B Keith Hernandez
  • RHP Ron Darling
  • LHP Sid Fernandez
  • 3B Ray Knight
  • 3B Howard Johnson
  • LHP Bob Ojeda
  • LHP Jesse Orosco

The Mets of the 80s used their draft picks and other minor league prospects as both key members of the big league club, and as chips for trades.  They built their farm system to the point where they could part ways with some prospects (i.e. Hubie Brooks, Calvin Schiraldi, Rick Ownbey) to fill voids on the major league team, because they knew they still had depth in the organization.

That’s the approach Alderson and the 2011-2012 Mets have to emulate.  The farm system is thin on prospects beyond AA (where Harvey, Familia, Wheeler, Mejia, et al, provide hope).  They must develop enough depth to build a solid major league club, while still having the ability to trade prospects for needs that the farm system can’t fill.

Granted, there are young players ready to contribute now.  Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, and others.  That’s why, in some ways, this team is reminiscent of an early-80s Mets team.  Let’s say 1982.  Future members of the ’86 Mets were already on their way up through the minors: Gooden, Strawberry, Dykstra.  Some were already beginning to make major league contributions: Wilson, Backman, Orosco.  Two years later, the Mets finished second to the Cubs in the East.

It’s conceivable the Mets could start making noise two years from now, when some of their existing prospects reach the majors, and youngsters on the current major league roster gain experience.  But they have to build the team the right way, like Cashen did in the 80s.  Don’t look for the quick fix – build the organization from the bottom up.  This is the best way to sustain a contending ballclub for many years.

Posted in Hot Stove, News Notes Rumors | Tagged , , , | 9 Comments

2011 Analysis: Tim Byrdak

Although many Mets fans were sad to see “Perpetual” Pedro Feliciano leave Flushing, in retrospect, that move couldn’t have turned out better. For one, the five years of abuse the Mets put on Feliciano finally caught up to his arm. Second, as a fourth-place club, an expensive LOOGY really wouldn’t have made a difference. And third, there was Tim Byrdak.

Personally, I was not all that impressed with Byrdak’s 2011 season, but everyone else was so I’ll defer to the masses; perhaps I missed something.

The 37-year-old lefty appeared in 72 games, posting a 3.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 2-1 record. His supporters speak excitedly about his 11.4 K/9 rate — which I admit is outstanding. However, he also had a 4.5 BB/9 rate, which is far from outstanding. He was excellent in stranding runners on base — only 16 of 67 inherited runners scored, or 24%.

He was hired to shut down lefthanded hitters, and he did a good job at that, holding them to a .222 batting average and a .604 OPS. However, MLB also allows hitters to bat righthanded if they so desire, and when that opportunity was exercised against Byrdak, the results were a .279 AVG and .857 OPS.

Am I nitpicking by pointing out Byrdak’s propensity to walk hitters and his inadequacy vs. RH hitters? Maybe. But the reason I’m not as high on him as others has more to do with inconsistency through the season. Byrdak had a really, really good run in June and July — ironically, the two months when his strikeout rate was at its lowest. He began the season poorly and finished uneven. Don’t get me wrong — I don’t think Byrdak was awful, I just don’t believe he was anything special. But, part of that has to do with my old-school mentality of being opposed to one-out specialists. I believe a team is better served using a precious roster spot with a pitcher who is effective against batters of both sides — particularly on a team that is in rebuilding mode.

2012 Projection

In September, Byrdak’s contract was extended through 2012, so there’s at least one of the 25 spots on the roster locked up. I don’t know why a team destined for another non-contending, rebuilding season and in financial straits needs to spend money on a LOOGY, but again, the masses found this to be a “smart” move so I’ll step back and let them enjoy the moment.

Posted in 2011 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 2 Comments

Spilled Milk Part One: What-If Trades In Met History

First off a little brown-nosing–Joe’s article on what if the Mets hadn’t made certain moves was very entertaining and thought-provoking. Nice work boss! It got me to rummaging through the cobwebs in the corners of my brain. For reasons that are now apparent, I have stored a lot Met-related information there. I also have a copy of the revised Jack Lang’s The New York Mets: 25 Years of Baseball Magic, (which is now itself 25 years old) as the source material for this story.

As has been told and retold, the Mets have made some good trades, some bad trades and some God-awful trades. But, they have also failed to pull the trigger on several deals, deals that if made would have in all probability altered the course of the franchise. Do you remember these?

1.The Mets Don’t Get Continue reading

Posted in 11-12 Offseason | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

2011 Analysis: Taylor Buchholz

Last winter, many would have been ecstatic to hear that the Mets acquired a pitcher named Buchholz — had his first name been “Clay”. Instead, the team signed Clay’s distant cousin Taylor.

It was a low-risk, low-reward signing that to me made sense. After all, Buchholz was once one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, sporting a 97 MPH fastball and a 12-6 deuce that invited swings and misses. All those curves and heaters take a beating on the elbow, however, and the Mets picked him up two years removed from Tommy John surgery. The velocity was nowhere near what it once was, but it was good enough when combined with that hard-breaking yellow hammer. Unfortunately, Buchholz suffered from a shoulder problem and then anxiety issues that knocked him out for most of the season.

When he did pitch, Buchholz showed flashes of effectiveness — though, success was inevitably tied to his ability to control his curve. His fastball velocity was in the low 90s range and had little movement, and he occasionally struggled mightily with his release point — there were brief periods during a game when he simply could not throw a strike. That may or may not have been due to the shoulder issue, or his elbow recovery. But even when he had command of the fastball, his effectiveness still was reliant on how hard the curve was biting and whether he could keep it near the strike zone.

2012 Projection

It’s difficult to know whether the Mets will re-up Buchholz, who was signed to a one-year deal. Considering that his season ended in July due to a bout with depression, I hope that the Mets at least make him a minor league offer — if he’s mentally ready to make a return to baseball in the spring. Because physically, he seemed to be OK and on the right track back toward being a reliable reliever.

Posted in 2011 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 8 Comments

A Look into the Future: Top Shortstop Prospects

The ground is full of dirty,

dirt that is full of memories.

Do you know how many played on this dirt before?

Ordonez, Olerud, Bordick, etc…

Maybe one day I can play on the dirt.

I’ve heard it’s softer than a mattress.

Short poems can explain a lot. If this poorly constructed poem did not inform you of what the article will be about, it is about the New York Mets infield prospects.

Before I try to convince you that these few will wear the blue and orange in the coming years, let me advise you, I am no expert. I do not hold a degree in predicting where and how a prospects career will play out. Maybe player X becomes the next big shot (cough … Nelson Cruz). Maybe player Y becomes a huge bust (cough … Fernando Martinez). But as fans, we love reading about the future. We hope that these teenagers and young adults can bring us something to be proud about.

For now, let’s focus on the left side of the infield. If you think back 3 years ago, you’d be sold that David Wright and Jose Reyes would be the face of the franchise for 10 years to come. Now to the present, David Wright is constantly being rumored around the trading market and as of right now, Jose Reyes is a free agent.

Ruben Tejada is nice shortstop who could blossom into an okay hitter, but he’s not Jose Reyes. Quite frankly, I do not think there will be another Jose Reyes in baseball, in the sense of what he brings to the plate each time he steps up. As it looks right now, the Mets answer might not be in their farm system to replace Jose Reyes. Sure Ruben Tejada could fit, but fans will just complain about his production. Hopefully I am wrong, but here’s my best shot at providing some insight on the shortstops of the future. Continue reading

Posted in Mets Minors | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments