2010 Analysis: Josh Thole

Posted on November 10, 2010 by Joe Janish

For me, Josh Thole was one of the biggest and most pleasant surprises of 2010.

Based on what I saw of him in late 2009, I didn’t think Thole would ever evolve into a mediocre Major League catcher, and further, did not believe he’d ever provide enough offense to make up for his lack of defense.

As it turned out, I ate crow on both accounts.

Thole developed enough skills behind the plate to be mediocre – i.e., not significantly hurt the team’s chances of winning. He received the ball without embarrassing himself, was mobile enough to block a few pitches, and showed enough improvement with his footwork to throw out some runners (he caught 11 of 24, or 44%). I wouldn’t go so far as to say he controlled the game from behind the plate, but he must have done a decent job of handling pitchers and calling games, since pitchers had an ERA of 3.58 with him behind the dish.

Additionally, Thole provided far more offense than I ever expected, hitting .277 and posting a .357 OBP. His .723 OPS was uninspiring, but if he can continue to get on base and make contact, he has an outside shot of being a poor man’s Jason Kendall.

2011 Projection

Since Sandy Alderson values the ability to get on base, and the Mets are in rebuilding mode, I’d imagine that Thole gets the opportunity to catch a full season in 2011 and show what he can do. If he can match the defensive improvement he made from ’09 to ’10, and continue to get on base around 36% of the time, the Mets might have something. My only concern is that his catching mechanics are limiting, in that they’re acceptable, but require significant athletic ability to improve upon. But who knows, he might have that ability, and/or he may improve enough offensively that it won’t matter.

Click here to read the 2009 Analysis of Josh Thole

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2010 Analysis: Henry Blanco

Posted on November 10, 2010 by Joe Janish

When Henry Blanco was signed in early December of 2009, it was the biggest signing of the offseason to that point. I made some fun of the signing, since it seemed silly to sign a backup catcher before a starting catcher – particularly since the Mets seemed intent on either keeping Topps Rookie Omir Santos as a backup and/or slowly transitioning Josh Thole into the starting spot. Though, picking up Blanco is the type of “veteran depth” pickup that a pennant-contending club makes, and at that point, Omar Minaya believed the Mets would be pennant contenders.

As it turned out, Blanco exceeded expectations with the bat – in the first half, anyway. He hit a surprising .370 in May, popping some dramatic late-inning extra-base hits during the season’s first few months. By the end of the year, however, “regression to the mean” got the best of Blanco, as he finished with a .215 average and putrid .571 OPS.

Defensively, he did a good job of throwing out runners, catching 11 of 22 (50%), and pitchers had a 3.27 ERA when pitching to him. Of course, that number was helped by the fact that Blanco caught 13 of Johan Santana’s starts – which amounted to almost one-third of the times he was written into the starting lineup.

All in all, Blanco did about as well as expected. He provided very little in the way of offense, threw out runners, called a decent game, and was awful at framing and blocking pitches.

2011 Projection

Henry Blanco will not return to the Mets as a player in 2011, mainly because he is old and has nothing to offer offensively, but also because fellow Venezuelan Johan Santana is unlikely to throw a pitch. However, he is by all accounts a “good guy” with baseball acumen, so maybe he’ll latch on as a coach in the organization. Personally, I hope he doesn’t attain a role as an instructor, because his catching mechanics are atrocious, but I could see him evolving into a pitching coach or manager at some point.

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2010 Analysis: Raul Valdes

Posted on November 10, 2010 by Joe Janish

Every time I saw Raul Valdes take the mound, I thought, “how is this guy in the Major Leagues?” His delivery resembles that of a high school shortstop who is thrown into a pitching role because the team has run out of pitchers, and his stuff is marginal at best.

For a while, Valdes seemed to get by – if you judge him by his 1.86 ERA in April. That number is deceiving, however, since during his 9 innings of work in the initial month, he allowed 9 hits (including a homer) and 3 walks, and blew two save opportunities. But something about Valdes (perhaps his smile?) enamored the Mets’ coaching staff, and he hung around for most of the year, finishing with a 4.91 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 38 games and 58 IP. His one positive was an ability to get batters to swing and miss – he struck out 56 in those 58 innings. However, I will go on a limb and say that was more due to batters not seeing him before rather than advanced ability.

2011 Projection

The Mets have already dropped Valdes from their roster, and I don’t see him returning to the organization in 2011. Although the Mets have already lost Hisanori Takahashi, and likely will lose Pedro Feliciano this winter, I don’t see them adding him as a lefty specialist – mainly because he was ineffective against lefthanded hitters (who hit .330 with a .991 OPS against him). He is a nice enough guy and definitely a team player who will fill any role asked of him, but he’s simply not very good.

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2010 Analysis: Johan Santana

Posted on November 9, 2010 by Joe Janish

It seemed as though every postgame of a Santana start began with, “Johan didn’t have his best stuff, but …”. Indeed, Santana rarely had his best stuff. Most of the time, he looked more like a wily, crafty veteran, using his smarts, guile, guts, and savvy to overcome fading stuff and keep his team in the ballgame for seven innings.

Don’t get me wrong – that’s not to make Santana sound like Jamie Moyer. More like Catfish Hunter in the second half of 1978, or Bobby Ojeda from ’86-’88 (if you’re old enough to remember that far back). That’s still a very good pitcher – better than most. But it’s not what a team expects from a pitcher being paid $21M+ per year.

Santana struggled with his command and lost considerable velocity on his fastball and slider. As a result, he induced fewer swings and misses and spent more effort to get them. Despite several assurances that he was completely healthy, it was finally discovered that Santana suffered a shoulder tear that required season-ending surgery in September. Santana described the injury as similar to the one that Jorge Posada suffered. It should be noted that Posada had arthroscopic surgery, while Santana received a much more invasive procedure.

2011 Projection

It’s neither realistic nor fair to believe that Johan Santana will pitch for the Mets during the first half of 2011. If his rehab goes absolutely perfectly, there’s a chance he’ll pitch at some point in 2011, but no one has any idea how effectively. He could come back topping out at 85 MPH, for all we know. All things considered, it makes sense for the Mets to assume Santana will not pitch in 2011 and plan accordingly. It appears that 2011 will be a rebuilding season anyway, so there is no need to rush his rehab and chance further damage. Eat the $22.5M he will earn in 2011, with the hopes that he can return as a top-of-the-rotation starter in 2012 – when the team will presumably be better and he will be making $24M (and another $25.5M guaranteed in 2013). It could work out for the best, for everyone.

Click here to read the 2009 Analysis of Johan Santana

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2010 Analysis: Fernando Nieve

Posted on November 9, 2010 by Joe Janish

Nieve isn’t currently on the Mets’ 40-man roster, and he finished the year in AAA Buffalo, and he didn’t pitch for the Mets after July 21, but I felt it necessary to evaluate him anyway.

Despite being on the roster for only 95 games, Nieve found his way into 40 of them. He appeared in 20 of the team’s first 31 games of the year, a pace that had him on course to threaten Mike Marshall’s MLB record of 106 games in one season. Manager Jerry Manuel kept putting Nieve on the mound, seemingly intent on seeing his arm fall off.

Manuel’s argument was that Nieve was his best option out of the bullpen at the time – and to an extent it was true, as Fernando held batters to a .191 average in April. But continually putting Nieve into ballgames was blatantly irresponsible and screamed of desperation by a manager managing for the short-term security of his job rather than for long-term production of a team over the course of a 162-game season. Continue reading →

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2010 Analysis: Mike Pelfrey

Posted on November 8, 2010 by Joe Janish

2010 was supposed to be Mike Pelfrey’s “breakout year” – and it appeared he’d fulfill that promise in the first three months, as he went 10-2 and pitched as well as any NL pitcher. In fact, he was among the top three pitchers in the league from April-June.

Then something happened in July.

Out of seemingly nowhere, Pelfrey’s performance and confidence sunk significantly – to the point where he looked like one of the worst three pitchers in baseball (Oliver Perez included). Luckily, he came out of his mid-season slump in August, then finished the year with mixed results. Over his final dozen or so starts, he was good – better than most – but nowhere near the dominant, ace-like starter he was in his first dozen.

Here at MetsToday we pointed out a minor mechanical issue that may or may not have contributed to his slump – one that he never completely worked out. Still, he finished the year with 15 wins, a 3.66 ERA, 204 IP, and allowed only 12 HRs – all good numbers for a mid-rotation starter. The main stats that worry me are his walk rate (3.0 per 9 IP), and to a lesser degree his groundball/flyball rate (1.05), and strikeout rate (4.99 per 9 IP). As a sinkerball pitcher who pitches to contact, he can’t afford to walk that many batters, and though he was 11th in the NL in GB rate, to be better than a top-of-the-rotation guy he will have to either strike out more batters or get more ground balls (and walk less batters).

A big part of his first-half success was Big Pelf’s ability to change speeds – something he hadn’t done with any consistency at any time in his career previously. His new-found forkball / changeup kept batters off-balance and put an extra pitch into their heads. Pelfrey also made steps toward commanding his overhand curve – yet another weapon that will keep hitters guessing.

2011 Projection

I think it’s fair to say 2010 was a step forward in Pelfrey’s progress. The question for 2011 is, will he continue to improve, or has he established a baseline for the rest of his career?

Considering his raw skillset, I’d like to believe that Pelfrey will continue to improve. Whether he progresses, however, will have much to do with his confidence – which, of course, is directly tied to his success. I sincerely believe that if Pelfrey can work out his mechanical inconsistencies, and stick to a strict program that enables him to repeat his delivery, the sky is the limit. A consistent delivery will allow him to command his sinker and change-up / forkball low in the zone, and continue development of his curve. With total command of those three pitches, Mike Pelfrey could be an ace.

Click here to read the 2009 Analysis of Mike Pelfrey

Posted in 2010 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 5 Comments

2010 Analysis: John Maine

Posted on November 7, 2010 by Joe Janish

When I first put together my list of players for whom to write evaluations, John Maine didn’t appear on the Mets’ 40-man roster, and as a result, I completely forgot about him.

That pretty much sums up Maine’s 2010 season: forgettable.

Going into spring training, Maine and Oliver Perez were supposed to be the lynchpins in the middle of the Mets’ starting rotation. Both pitched ineffectively, became injured, lost significant velocity, and as a result, couldn’t be removed from the team fast enough.

Maine has always had issues with command, mainly due to a mechanical flaw in his pitching motion. Interestingly, that flaw is part of the reason for his short run of success – his delivery is as such that he can only hit one part of the strike zone consistently: up and in to right-handed batters / up and away to left-handed batters. A pitcher can find moderate success throwing to that spot with 95+ MPH heat, which is what Maine did from mid-2006 through mid-2007. Unfortunately, a pitcher eventually needs to have a more rounded strategy and command of other pitches in order to succeed over the long term. Also unfortunately, those mechanics that produced the velocity and location that made Maine successful, also were a tremendous strain on his shoulder muscles. Eventually, the shoulder was going to break down, and it did. Maine underwent surgery, and returned with the same mechanics, same location, but a fastball that struggled to reach 90 MPH.

2011 Projection

John Maine is eligible for arbitration, and if he goes through with it, he will earn at least $2.6M in 2011 (80% of his 2010 salary). Remarkably, the chance of his salary reducing as a result of arbitration is almost nil – the system is rigged so reductions rarely occur. Because of that, there is almost no chance whatsoever that the Mets offer him arbitration; his best chance at remaining an employee of the Mets is if they non-tender him (effectively releasing him) and then re-sign him on a minor-league deal. If that’s what happens, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world – the Mets have, after all, invested in his physical rehabilitation the last two years, so it would be nice to get some payback in the event Maine does find a way to be a moderately effective MLB pitcher again. However, there’s a slim chance of that happening if he doesn’t regain the 95-MPH fastball.

Click here to read the 2009 Analysis of John Maine

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Collins’ Experience: Good or Bad?

Posted on November 6, 2010 by Joe Janish

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Terry Collins has emerged as the top candidate for the job of Mets manager in 2011:

Alderson is scheduled to interview Terry Collins this weekend in San Diego and a person who has talked in recent days with Mets officials left those conversations believing Collins is anywhere from “a strong candidate to the front-runner. I think it is possible that all the interviews are just covering bases and they already like Collins the best.”

Collins, 61, has several assets that favor his candidacy, including likely endorsements from powerful voices to Alderson: Fred Wilpon and Paul DePodesta.
Friends of Alderson say they expect him to favor candidates with managerial experience …

Indeed, Collins has experience — he managed for six seasons between 1994 and 1999, split between the Astros and Angels. He has a career 444-434 (.506) winning percentage, and his teams finished 2nd five times out of those six seasons. Clearly, that qualifies as “experience” — nearly 900 MLB games’ worth.

One problem though, is with the “experience” of that sixth season — it was a nightmare of a year in which the Anaheim Angels clubhouse went into complete disarray, ultimately pushing Collins into resignation. Continue reading →

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