2010 Analysis: R.A. Dickey

What is there to say? R.A. Dickey was the Mets’ MVP – “no question”, as Jerry Manuel might say. Without Dickey’s 11 wins and 175 IP, the Mets are battling the Washington Nationals to stay out of the NL East cellar, rather than staying neck-and-neck with the third-place Marlins.

Dickey’s season was so magical it seemed to have been scripted; surely, the Disney execs are working on a movie based on it right now. The million-dollar question is, naturally, can he do it again? Or, will he run out of hair tonic?

2011 Projection

On the one hand, the performance came out of nowhere, and was a complete transgression from what Dickey has done in his other seven seasons in MLB. On the other hand, he’s only been throwing the knuckler since 2005 – a pitch that takes a long, long time to perfect. It can be argued that Dickey has finally “figured out” the pitch, and may ACTUALLY GET BETTER as a result. A cursory look at his minor-league and MLB stats suggest there is something supporting that theory – particularly his walk rates, which have reduced by one-half. Indeed, R.A.’s ability to stay around the plate was remarkable for a knuckleball pitcher – or ANY pitcher, for that matter. Dickey walked only 2.2 batters per 9 innings in 2010, a full walk below the NL average. Compare that to HOF knuckleballer Phil Niekro’s career average of 3.0, or Tim Wakefield’s 3.4.

Dickey’s success is of course directly tied to the knuckleball – a pitch whose course changes rapidly depending on the air currents. Which way the wind will blow in 2011 and beyond for R.A. and his knuckler is anyone’s guess. With Johan Santana likely out for the year, the Mets have no choice but to bet that the winds don’t change for Dickey. Let’s hope this feel-good story never ends.

Posted in 2010 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 4 Comments

Why Bobby Valentine Won’t Be the Next Mets Manager

Ever since Willie Randolph was fired — and probably even before — there has been a groundswell supporting the return of Bobby Valentine to Flushing as manager of the futiles.

As time goes on, the legend of Bobby spreads further and grows larger — to the point where many Mets fans have reached a point where any other choice for manager seems illogical.

Ah, how the passage of time clouds memories, heals wounds, and distorts reality. Continue reading

Posted in 10-11 Offseason | Tagged , | 30 Comments

2010 Analysis: Elmer Dessens

Every time I want to write off Elmer Dessens, he comes back and disproves my assertion that he stinks. Still, I maintain that he does not have the talent to pitch in the big leagues, and his incredible stat line must have something to do with either voo-doo or a pact with the devil; there is no other way to explain how someone with such pedestrian stuff can post a 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 53 games.

Much if not all of his success has to do with throwing strikes – he walked only 14 in 47 innings. The way he was used also helped – generally speaking, he either faced one or two batters, or was brought in for mop-up duty. In other words, a combination of lack of exposure and appearing in meaningless games.

2011 Projection

I wouldn’t want to negotiate a contract with Dessens after he put up those numbers. Despite the fact he had a similarly strong half-season with the Mets in 2009, I do not believe he can keep it up, and am willing to gamble that he falls back to Earth in 2011. Let him walk.

Click here to read the 2009 Analysis of Elmer Dessens

Posted in 2010 Mets Evaluations | Tagged | 1 Comment

2010 Analysis: Manny Acosta

Who would have thought, before the 2010 season began, that Manny Acosta would appear in 41 games for the New York Mets? As some may point out, Acosta is similar to Mariano Rivera in that he’s righthanded and from Panama; unfortunately, that’s where the similarity ends.

The stringbean reliever with the 95-MPH fastball was plucked from Braves on the waiver wire just prior to Opening Day and began the season in AAA Buffalo. He finished the year with a sparkling 2.95 ERA, 42 Ks in 39 IP, and a 1.21 WHIP. Looking at the stat line, it would seem he had a heckuva season; why didn’t it feel that way?

Maybe it had something to do with the 13 (of 31) inherited runners he allowed to score – the 8th-highest total in the NL – a rate of 42%. That’s not a very good percentage; the league average is 31% and the only Met with a higher rate was Raul Valdes (46%). So if it seemed to you like Acosta was routinely giving up big hits with men on base, well, he was. Additionally, the bugaboo throughout his career has been an inability to consistently throw strikes. His walk rate was 4.1 per 9 innings, which, again, is not great – particularly for a reliever.

2011 Projection

I don’t know if or where Acosta fits into the Mets plans for 2011. He’s not the worst reliever and he does light up the radar gun in the 95-96 MPH range. But at age 29, he pretty much is what he is and likely won’t improve much – he appears to be one of those “live arms” who never translate the skill into consistent performance. Since the Mets jacked up his value by letting him appear in 41 ballgames, and he has that shiny ERA and strikeout rate, another team is likely to pick him up if the Mets don’t re-sign him. However, I’d be inclined to offer him a minor-league deal for 2011 and if he refuses, let him walk.

Posted in 2010 Mets Evaluations | Tagged , | Comments Off on 2010 Analysis: Manny Acosta

2010 Mets Player Evaluations

While the Mets continue their GM hiring charade (c’mon, was there ever a question once Sandy Alderson emerged as a candidate?) for the foreseeable future, we will individually review the 2010 performances of the players currently on the Mets roster. This way, when Alderson the next Mets GM arrives at his office in Flushing, he’ll have something to chew on.

Please note that although some pedestrian stats may be cited here and there, for the most part we will not be focusing on hard-core statistics. If sabermetrics is your cup of tea, I strongly recommend that you check the numbers provided by Fangraphs and/or the excellent stat-focused articles on Amazin’ Avenue.

Our first analysis will be on Manny Acosta, and we’ll go through the rest of the evaluations in alphabetical order, starting with the pitchers, following with the catchers, proceeding with the anicillary position players, and finishing with the coaching staff — or at least, what’s left of it by the time we get that far.

Looking forward to reading your comments.

Posted in 2010 Mets Evaluations | Comments Off on 2010 Mets Player Evaluations

Mets Fans’ Dream Come True

OK, maybe seeing the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers face off in the World Series isn’t exactly a “dream” for a Mets fan. But a World Series played between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees is pretty much a Mets fan’s worst nightmare, isn’t it?

Even though the Giants used to play in the Polo Grounds, and wear the same shade of orange as the Mets, I have a hard time rooting for them — mainly because they are an NL rival. Further, I just can’t bring my self to pull for specific players on the Giants; namely, Tim Lincecum, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, and Guillermo Mota. And I don’t find “fear the beard” to be particularly inspiring, either.

At the same time, it’s hard for me to favor a team that plays in the Adulterated League — the one that continues to experiment with the designated pinch hitter rather than engage in real baseball. But I happen to like watching some of the Rangers players (Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Cantu, Cliff Lee, Darren O’Day, Darren Oliver, and Jeff Francoer top the list), and I’m eager to see Nolan Ryan succeed — mainly because of his dedication to developing pitchers based on sound mechanics and conditioning rather than pitch counts and other inane recommendations by surgeons.

Tough call, but I’m leaning toward rooting for the Rangers.

Which team will you be rooting for, and why?

Posted in 10-11 Offseason | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Review of 2010 Predictions

Prior to Opening Day, I sat down at McFaddens in front of a camera with a fruity beer, Kerel Cooper of OnTheBlack and Dave Doyle of Mets Report. We discussed a number of topics, including predictions for the 2010 season. You may find it fun to watch them again, now that it is after the fact:

1. Grading the Offseason
I gave the Mets a C-minus for not acquiring more pitching. Dave liked the Jason Bay signing.

2. Catchers, Castillo, and Murphy
I was disappointed with the Mets’ decision to stockpile backup catchers. Dave suggested that Josh Thole would emerge as the starting catcher by September.

3. Jose Reyes & David Wright
I predicted that David Wright would return to his 25-30 HR / 100-RBI / .310 AVG. batting line. Both Dave and I did not like Jose Reyes as a #3 hitter and felt the experiment wouldn’t last.

4. Outfield
I was skeptical that Beltran had routine knee surgery and guessed that we would not see Beltran at all during the season — but felt the Mets would be OK with Angel Pagan in CF. I had no expectations for Jeff Francoeur but admitted I would enjoy watching him play for the entertainment factor. Dave believed that Francoeur would return to poor performance he displayed at the end of his Braves career rather than repeat the strong numbers he put up as a Met at the tail end of 2009. I thought Jason Bay’s power wouldn’t be significantly affected by Citi Field (oops!). Both Dave and I agreed Bay would be be fun to watch and would be much better defensively than people were giving him credit for.

5. Pitching
Dave and I were skeptical about John Maine and Oliver Perez. I felt the Mets’ success or failure was completely dependent on the performance of Maine, Perez, and Mike Pelfrey. I expected Pelfrey to step up, have a breakout season, and establish himself as a #2 starter. Dave wanted to see Jonathon Niese take the #5 spot in the rotation. Kerel was concerned that K-Rod might not return to form due to physical issues. I was similarly concerned mainly because I didn’t think Jerry Manuel would manage him properly and overuse him. I liked Fernando Nieve as a possible setup man — and you know what? he might’ve held on to that role had Manuel not put him on pace to appear in 104 ballgames (he appeared in 21 of the first 31 games of the year).

6. Prospects
Dave was confident we’d see Josh Thole behind the plate and Ike Davis at 1B at some point in the year. I didn’t think we’d see any position players making an impact IF the Mets were fighting for a playoff spot. I did, however, believe that auditions would begin if the Mets season was “in the toilet” by June.

7. 2010 Predictions
The over/under for wins was 81; I predicted the Mets would be under 81 wins — unless John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey all had the outstanding seasons that people were hoping for back then.

In addition to the above videos, I also wrote a “Best-Case / Worst-Case” article before the season started. I think we can all agree that the “best case” didn’t happen.

Posted in 10-11 Offseason, Predictions | 5 Comments

Why the Love for John Ricco?

Quick: find a Yankees fan and ask him/her who the Yanks’ assistant GM is. No idea? Huh. (BTW, we’ve played this game before.)

Now, as a Mets fan, I bet you know who the current Mets assistant GM is; it’s the same person who was the assistant to previous GM Omar Minaya — John Ricco.

Interesting, isn’t it, that few know about the assistant GM for MLB’s most successful organization, yet many are aware of the person in the same role for one of MLB’s most disappointing clubs?

Despite the futility, we’ve been hearing for the last few years about Ricco, and how he is an up-and-comer and a future GM — possibly a future GM of the Mets. What this hype is based on, nobody knows, though at least some of it is rumored to be based on a photo of him with a calculator.

First things first: I have nothing against John Ricco, mainly because I know absolutely nothing about him. Unless you want to count the random media and blogosphere tidbits about him being “highly regarded” by “high ranking officials”.

As Greg Prince pointed out recently, MLB GMs don’t have baseball cards, and as a result we as fans really have no clue on how “good” or “bad” any GM — or aspiring GM — is. All we really have to go on are the remarks uttered by anonymous sources — the ubiquitous people “close to the situation” and “high ranking officials within the Mets organization”.

You know what? Those same people kept telling us what a great manager Manny Acta (a.k.a., “Connie Macta”) would be some day. His teams in DC went downhill after taking over for Frank Robinson, and his Indians team seems to be on a similar downward spiral. Could just be a coincidence of bad luck, though. As another example, those “high ranking officials” are the same folks who gave Omar Minaya the keys to the castle and made Tony Bernazard a thought leader. So excuse me if I’m hesitant to trust these “officials”.

Since his work is done behind the scenes, we don’t really know much about Ricco’s job and even less about his performance. All we can look at are the actions and the results. For example, he assisted Omar Minaya, and one of his responsibilities was to help with the contracts and arbitration cases. Presumably that means he was somewhat involved with the negotiation and execution of contracts with, for example, Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Alex Cora, Jason Bay, Kelvim Escobar, and Ryota Igarashi. We can also assume he had something to do with the decisions of going to arbitration with (rather than non-tendering) the likes of John Maine, Jeff Francoeur, and Sean Green. Nothing much to boast about there.

Speaking of Francoeur, it was Ricco who was praised for being the driving force behind acquiring him from the Braves. How short memory can serve, eh? Again, not exactly something to highlight on the resume — and not something to brag about to a sabermetric-minded analyst.

Yet, despite being a key part of the shenanigans of the Omar Minaya era from the past five years, Ricco is still seen as a “keeper”, and one who could be “groomed” into the GM position by a tutor such as Sandy Alderson. Maybe he is as great as everyone says — I really don’t know. All I know is what I see, and, to quote Bachman Turner Overdrive, I “ain’t seen nuthin’ yet”.

If the organization is to succeed, the next Mets GM needs to have the authority to choose his/her own team — that includes his immediate associates and underlings, the scouting department, the field manager, etc. Maybe that team will include Ricco, maybe it won’t. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves and possibly deluded into thinking John Ricco is the next Theo Epstein or Jon Daniels, just because the Mets’ hype machine says so. Let’s leave it to the soon-to-be-named GM to make that decision, and watch what transpires over the next few years.

Posted in 10-11 Offseason | Tagged , | 3 Comments